Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills Pick & Prediction – 10/20/2024

Titans vs Bills Betting Odds

One of the biggest point spreads in Week 7 of the NFL season comes from the Titans vs Bills matchup from Orchard Park, NY. Buffalo is favored by eight points at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the total for this AFC matchup is 43 points.

Tennessee Titans vs Buffalo Bills Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tennessee Titans vs Buffalo Bills Betting Preview

It was quite the blowout the last time these two teams played. The Bills won by double digits at home, outscoring the Titans 41-7 in Week 2 of 2022. They say, good teams win, but great teams cover. The Bills not only won, but covered the -10.0 spread that game. The Game Total for that game was 47.5 and which the Over hit.

Tennessee's biggest weakness has been their offense, ranking #31 in the league with a mere 256 yards per game. They've failed so much on offense in large part because of their passing attack, which checks in at #2-worst in football with 168 yards per game. And when a defense doesn't have to worry about the pass, they can key in on the run, which has led to just 3.89 yards per carry for the Titans -- bottom 10 in the league. This represents a particular disadvantage for Tennessee given that the Bills have excelled in stopping the pass this year, allowing just 6.65 yards per target (#4-best in the league). In terms of their defense, the Titans have ranked #2 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 160 yards per game through the air against them (#31 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #28 with 3.96 yards per carry. Tennessee has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 6.26 yards per target (#1-best). Tennessee has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up a 78.2% completion rate (#5-highest).

Buffalo's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #29 in football with a low 261 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their aerial attack, clocking in at #32 in the league with just 163 yards per game. This presents a decided disadvantage for Buffalo given that the Titans pass defense has thrived this year, allowing a mere 6.24 yards per target (good for #2-best in football). When it comes to their defense, the Bills check in at #10 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 186 yards per game against Buffalo this year (#28 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #10 against them with 5.03 yards per ground attempt. This Bills defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, keeping them in check at just 4.85 yards per target (#2-best in the league). Buffalo's defensive effectiveness in the pass game bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have scorched them for 50 yards per game (#2-worst in the league).

Titans Struggling Mightily In 2024

This season has been a disaster for the Tennessee Titans, as they enter Week 7 with a 1-4 record. The Titans lost to the Indianapolis Colts at home in Week 6, despite the fact that Joe Flacco had to start at quarterback for the Colts with Anthony Richardson out due to injury. But the defense for the Titans isn’t nearly as big a concern as their offense, which has scored more than 17 points just once this season, with that game coming against a Miami Dolphins team that couldn’t move the ball with Tua Tagovailoa out due to a concussion.

Buffalo Comes In On Short Week

Week 7 will be an interesting one for the Buffalo Bills, as they have a short week of rest to look forward to. The Bills face the New York Jets on Monday Night Football this week, with the Bills having to regroup in a hurry for this game. But with the Bills winning a Monday Night Football game over the Jacksonville Jaguars by a score of 47-10 earlier this year, Buffalo will be confident in their ability to put up points whether or not they have a full week of rest.

Tennessee Titans vs Buffalo Bills Prediction

Final Score: Tennessee Titans 17.03 vs Buffalo Bills 25.46

This is an interesting game to handicap, as the Bills are clearly the better team but their short rest week could be a mitigating factor in their chances of winning big and covering the spread. Instead, we will take the over in this game, as Tennessee shouldn’t have to do too much to help this contest get to the total given that they are squared up against a Bills team that could hit this total by themselves with Josh Allen leading the way./p>

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