UFC 281 is a high end Pay Per View card that will take place at Madison Square Garden in New York. The card is headlined by a pair of title fights, and truly has bangers throughout, from the first fight all the way through the last fight. The UFC 281 card has awesome fight volume as well, as we are scheduled for 14 fights! From the prelims through the main card, prepare yourself to be entertained!
UFC 281 takes place on Saturday November 12th, 2022. As mentioned, the 14 fight card will take place at Madison Square Garden in New York. The first fighters are scheduled to make the walk to the octagon at 6PM EST. We will follow the normal streaming and broadcast schedule for pay per view events. The early prelims will stream live on both ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass. The televised prelims, starting at 8PM EST, will air on ESPN News and stream on ESPN+. The Pay Per View portion starting at 10PM EST will stream on ESPN+.
With the promotion outside of the UFC Apex, the comparatively larger sized octagon will be in use. This size octagon was always the norm before health restrictions forced the promotion into the Apex for the vast majority of events. The smaller sized cage was previously only used on The Ultimate Fighter and Dana White Contender Series. Now it is used for all events within the Apex. With the normal sized octagon in use, fighters that prefer range and a lower overall level of engagement get a slight advantage.
Quick Look Back
We had a small negative week last week for the UFC Vegas 64 card. We had three wagers. Our fighters went 2-1 but our bets went 1-2. We started the night out with Johnny Munoz taking on the limited skill set of Liudvik Shaolinian. We went the aggressive route with the ITD play on Munoz. Munoz controlled a striking heavy fight. The problem therein was there was not enough mat time for Munoz to find a finish and won by decision. It was a little frustrating that he had Shaolinian hurt at the end of the first round but the bell stopped him from capitalizing.
Next up we had Grant Dawson dominate his fight with Mark O Madsen on his way to the rankings. That left just Marina Rodriguez in the main event. Frankly, it was the worst fight we have ever seen Rodriguez fight. It was reminiscent of Joanne Wood looking ahead to a title shot and losing the opportunity completely with a loss. We bounce back for UFC 281.
UFC 281 Promo Code
Get the hook up from DraftKings on your first bet on UFC 281. Simply bet $5 or more on any fight. If you win, you will get your winnings plus $200 in free bets! Just follow the link below!
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
UFC 281 Fight Card
The UFC 281 fight card is pretty stacked from top to bottom. That said, there is a little more to be excited about on the bottom than on the top, at least compared to other cards. The middleweight championship main event is of course highly anticipated and an amazing fight. The women’s strawweight championship fight is not at that level, and we could truly see a one sided affair. The Poirier vs Chandler fight on the middle of the pay per view portion is the banger. The two pay per view fights leading into that leave a bit to be desired.
Main Event
The main event of UFC 281 is a long awaited rematch for the middleweight title. This is not an MMA rematch, but champion Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira have met before, in a kickboxing ring, twice. Pereira won both of those fights. One via controversial decision and the other via knockout. While the KO is what resonates as history pertains to it, Adesanya found success in those fights. Now, five years later, Adesanya is the UFC Champ at middleweight and Pereira looks to repeat past success against the champ.
Despite the kickboxing victories for Pereira, Adesanya sits as the -200 favorite in this five round main event. Now, we have seen the success that Pereira has been able to find in his short MMA career. His notable UFC fights have been taking a decision from Bruno Silva and starching Sean Strickland in the first round of their number one contender’s matchup. Pereira did exactly what he was supposed to do against those two fighters. That said, the Strickland approach needs to be discussed. He was as aware as everyone else of the explosive power of Pereira. Even with that knowledge he chose to stand in front of Pereira and throw straight punches, and he paid the price for it.
This will be a very different fight for Pereira. Adesanya is not a perfect champ, but he is an extremely leveled up and rangy technical striker. His range and elusiveness has been a puzzle for UFC middleweights since 2018, that no one has been able to solve. Once Adesanya became the champ, only Robert Whittaker was able to give him a truly competitive fight. That elusiveness will be a huge problem for Pereira throughout the fight.
Better Fight For Izzy?
Pereira brings a different skill set than Whittaker. Where Whittaker was able to exchange and threaten wrestling, Pereira is a fighter that will almost certainly need a kill shot to dethrone the champ. While that is possible, particularly in those first two rounds, it is very difficult to deem it likely. Adesanya will also have a pacing and cardio advantage, and will find even more success the longer the fight takes place.
There is not enough value at -200 for a flat bet on the champ. If itching for action, perhaps round betting on Adesanya is a better avenue. If he gets Pereira to slow later in the fight, a finish in round 4 or round 5 would be possible. A dart at one of those elevated plus figures would be the best avenue of attack if requiring action.
Co-Main Event
The co-main event is also a title fight, this one at women’s strawweight. Carla Esparza is the freshly crowned champ, and it is actually her second title reign. She was the initial strawweight champ back in 2014 with her win over Rose Namajunas. History repeated itself earlier this year as Esparza won the best from Namajunas in what was the worst title fight in history. There is no debate to that, sadly. Over five rounds, Esparza’s 38 strikes landed and two takedowns resulting in 22 seconds of control time were the better and busier statistics. The split decision win for Esparza was more of an indictment on both her and Namajunas than an occasion to celebrate.
She now takes on former champ Weili Zhang, who dropped the belt to Namajunas in 2021. She then lost a close split decision in the rematch. It was a great day for Weili that Rose dropped the belt, as that opened her up for another title opportunity.
The lack of effectiveness of Esparza in her title win and against the top levels of the division overall is not lost on the oddsmakers. Weili sits as a huge -380 favorite as the challenger, and rightfully so.
And New…
We are going to see Weili have something of a field day in this matchup. The striking on the Weili side is truly a massive advantage. She will be busier and will land often and heavily. A knockout in the standup would be far from surprising. The wrestling of Esparza is the strength of her game, but is running into an opponent that can match that wrestling game. Weili is the larger and stronger fighter.
The takedowns will be few and far between for Esparza and the control time will certainly not be where it is required to be to win rounds. We could also see Weili shoot takedowns of her own. In any event, every bit of the -380 line on Weili is completely warranted. If wagering on this co-main event, the +100 ITD line on Weili is the play to attack and was close to being a dedicated betting pick.
Remainder Of UFC 281 Fight Card
The other three cards on the pay per view portion have one true gem. That is the Dustin Poirier vs Michael Chandler fight. We could truly see a finish from either fighter. It would be more likely to see an early finish from Chandler and a later finish from Poirier, but both will be live throughout. This fight will be fireworks.
On the televised prelims, we will see some very real quality on the undercard. First we will see future women’s flyweight champion take on her biggest test to date in Molly McCann. We will also see former championship challenger Dominick Reyes look to get back on track against Ryan Spann. Finally we will see Brad Riddell and Renato Moicano each try to get back on track at lightweight.
On the early prelims, we will see some truly quality fighters in action. You will read plenty more about Carlos Ulberg in a bit. We will see the next steps in the development of Montel Jackson. We will also see a fun striker vs grappler type of fight in Ottman Azaitar vs Matt Frevola. This card is truly going to deliver throughout the night.
UFC 281 Bet Sheet
UFC 281 is a card that does not bring a world of overly attractive favorites. Despite no line on the card being higher than -400, there is a case to make for essentially every single underdog to win across the entirety of the card. With that being the case, we will have bets on two of those underdogs. Our third betting play will be on a very small favorite. All upside and little risk for UFC 281. Let’s get to the bets.
Click the links below for a full breakdown with recommended betting pick and analyses.
Carlos Ulberg vs Nicolae Negumereanu
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Silvana Gomez Juarez
Andre Petroski vs Wellington Turman
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
Oher UFC 281 Fight Predictions
Israel Adesanya via KO over Alex Pereira
Zhang Weili via KO over Carla Esparza
Michael Chandler via KO over Dustin Poirier
Chris Gutierrez via KO over Frankie Edgar
Dan Hooker via decision over Claudio Puelles
Renato Moicano via submission over Brad Riddell
Dominick Reyes via KO over Ryan Spann
Erin Blanchfield via submission over Molly McCann
Matt Frevola via submission over Ottman Azaitar
Seungwoo Choi via KO over Mike Trizano
Montel Jackson via decision over Julio Arce