Andrei Petroski vs Wellington Turman Fight Odds
Andrei Petroski -205 vs Wellington Turman
Fight is at 185 lbs and is -190 to end inside the distance.
This middleweight matchup is between a pair of fighters that very much prefer to have their fights take place on the mat. Starting with the favorite in Andrei Petroski, he is a wrestler and grappler that is looking to have his striking catch up with his grappling game. Petroski is big and strong for the division, but is not necessarily dangerous in the stand up, despite having power. He throws one larger shot at a time and those shots are generally wildly telegraphed.
Where Petroski does well is turning his wrestling to grappling and working from top position. He is 3-0 with three finishes on the floor to this point in the UFC. Now he gets a very real step up in competition. He is not only seeing a step up in overall fighter, he is facing a fighter for the first time that could widely be considered a better grappler. Petroski is high end as a Gracie brown belt, but is likely not the better pure BJJ fighter in this matchup.
UFC 281 Promo Code
Check out the offer from DraftKings on this prelim fight for UFC 281. All you have to do is follow the link below and you will get a 20:1 offer. Bet $5 or more on this or any UFC 281 fight and winning bet will also be credited with an additional $200 in free bets!
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
Wellington Turman is also riding a recent wave of success. He is riding the first winning streak of his UFC tenure and we are seeing fight to fight improvements. He cemented his streak with a lightning fast armbar of high end grappler Misha Cirkunov in his most recent outing. Turman is no world beater with his striking, but he is certainly going to be the better fighter in that aspect in this matchup. He will be the fighter touching more often for however long the stand up portion of the fight lasts.
Where Turman likely has an edge on the mat, he is not going to be the better wrestler. It will be Petroski trying to get the fight to the floor, assuming he is not seeing the Turman guard as an area to avoid. While that scenario is unlikely, it is possible. It will be interesting to see whether Petroski will have success with early takedowns. If he does not, the fight could end up in clinch scenarios that will be a two fold advantage for Turman. First, he is sneaky and quite good in the clinch. He finds himself to positions that opponents do not see coming. The second is that will wear on the gas tank of Petroski, and Turman has the skill set and ability to make Petroski gas, as we have seen before on the Ultimate Fighter.
What To Bet
The line on this fight is puzzling due to the advantages that Turman has. He is also the most difficult fight that Petroski has had. Now, is it possible that Petroski has just leveled up in a massive way over this past year, and became world class on the mat? Sure, but not overly likely. It is also possible that the Petroski wrestling earns him a close decision call with top control time. That said, those are the identifiable paths to victory for Petroski. Not awe inspiring for a -205 favorite. The losses Turman has suffered have been to better strikers, and that is not the type of matchup he faces here. We get quite the value spot on the +175 underdog and he will be our avenue of attack.
Betting Pick: Turman +175
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+