Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Silvana Gomez Juarez Fight Odds
Karolina Kowalkiewicz -115 vs Silvana Gomez Juarez
Fight is at 115 lbs and is -105 to end inside the distance.
Silvana Gomez Juarez got off to a rocky start in the UFC. Her first two matchups came against opponents that were very strong grapplers, and that was her undoing in this matchups. In the debut against Godinez, she was taken down and ultimately armbarred for the loss. In the follow up, she dropped Demopoulos very early on in the fight. She was not careful going to the ground to finish and got caught in yet another armbar. After that, she was written off in her third fight by most.
We at ATS were not so easily fooled and went the other way with a bet on her. She is too strong a fighter and too dangerous and talented a striker to be written off so easily. She rewarded us with a KO win in just over a minute. Gomez Jaurez has now scored first round knockdowns in consecutive fights. She will continue to improve her overall game without losing any of the characteristics that make her so dangerous. This is a good spot for her, albeit against another fighter that had previously been written off.
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Karolina Kowalkiewicz had a very good run early on her in her UFC career. She won her first three UFC appearances and earned a 2016 title shot against Joanna Jedrzejczyk. That fight was not remotely competitive and she has been trying to regain her footing ever since. In nine fights since then, she has only beaten Jodie Esquibel and Felice Herrig twice.
The striker that was once so reliant on landing volume has been out struck over the last four years and found herself on the wrong end of three finishes. She did look as if she was bouncing back with a win over Herrig in what turned out to be her retirement fight. With that said, I think that fight had more to do with Herrig than Kowalkiewicz. She now faces a striker in the mold that has given her massive issues over these last four years and is likely in a spot where she will struggle. While we did see improved grappling against Herrig, Kowalkiewicz is not a fighter that will be able to take the fight to the mat with her wrestling. She has landed just two takedowns in 12 UFC fights.
How To Attack This Fight
We are going to see a stand up heavy fight where Gomez Juarez will have some big advantages. While Kowalkiewicz may have a slight technical advantage, the power edge on the Gomez Juarez side is truly massive. Kowalkiewicz saw her chin give out the last time she was cracked like she will be in this fight, against Andrade. We have also seen spots where Kowalkiewicz racked up volume on lesser strikers, but that will not be the case in this fight.
I suspect it will be very early when a clean shot buckles Kowalkiewicz and makes her defensive for the remainder of the fight, if she survives the first clean one. I think the recent Herrig fight created a narrative that Kowalkiewicz has bounced back more than she has and that narrative goes down the drain once the power of Gomez Juarez lands. It is a rare thing she possesses at 115 lbs. Take the value of +240 on the ITD line.
Betting Pick: Gomez Juarez ITD +240
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