UFC 278 is a high end pay per view event taking place on Saturday August 20th, 2022. The event will take place in Salt Lake City, Utah, at the Vivint Arena. Our 13 fight card will begin at 6PM EST. This will be the second consecutive week the promotion is on the road. Last week we had a televised fight night event originating from the Pochanga Arena in San Diego, California.
We will see the normal production schedule for a pay per view event. The early prelims will be streaming live on both ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass. The televised prelims will also stream on ESPN+ and be televised on ESPN. The pay per view portion will stream live on ESPN+.
With the promotion on the road and not at the UFC Apex, we will see the comparatively larger sized octagon in use. This tends to give a slight edge to fighters that prefer range and a lower level of engagement.
UFC 278 Promo Code
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Quick Look Back
UFC San Diego played out about as expected. Our one bet on a significant underdog was a loss, but the fight played out precisely as expected. Dominick Cruz utilized his trademark footwork and movement to win the volume war and take rounds. I said Vera would have to do more than score a knockdown in a couple of rounds to win this fight. That turned out to be true as he had already lost a round in which he scored a knockdown. Cruz was up two rounds to one on all judges scorecards heading into the fourth round. That’s when Vera went above and beyond just scoring a knockdown. Cruz dipped off deeply to his right, and Vera landed what amounted to a soccer head kick that put Cruz out. While the result was a loss, the fight played out precisely as expected, we just did not get to the scorecards as needed to cash the Cruz ticket. On to UFC 278 where we will have more and better action available.
UFC 278 Fight Card
The UFC 278 fight card is a very good one, but it is a bit top heavy. We have a welterweight championship fight to cap off the evening, and two absolute bangers leading into that. We will also get rock solid action on both the early and televised prelims.
Main Event
The UFC 278 main event is five rounds for the welterweight championship. Kamaru Usman sits as a -400 in his second fight against Leon Edwards. It is difficult to call this one a rematch however, given the duration of time in between the first fight and now. Usman won a dominant decision in the first fight, but that was way back in 2015. Seven years is truly an eternity in MMA chronology, and both fighters are quite different now than they were back then.
That against Edwards win was the second of 15 in a row for Usman in the UFC. The most recent six have been title fights and of course, Usman has won them all. He is widely considered the top pound for pound fighter in the world. Edwards has been less active, but has also incurred no losses since the first Usman fight. He is 9-0-1 since then with an eye poke no contest being mixed in with wins.
The level of competition faced by each fighter is not remotely similar in these last seven years. It is just recently that Edwards has seen the steps up in competition, and it is just this fight that will be his first crack at an elite in the division. He has not been forced to cross paths with the likes of Colby Covington, Jorge Masvidal, Gilbert Burns, Shavkat Rakhmonov or Khamzat Chimaev. Usman of course has had his last five fights against Covington, Masvidal and Burns. For Edwards, a win over Nate Diaz is his marquee fight as Rafael Dos Anjos was never truly dangerous when moving up from lightweight.
Usman
We have seen something of opposite paths in development from each fighter. Each fighter has found much development since the first fight between them, just in different areas for each. Usman has morphed from dominant wrestler to dominant striker that mixes in wrestling in spots. He started as a wrestler that used that dominance, but has seen his striking level up multiple times. Usman has learned to fight behind his jab, put real power on his shots and not need to turn to his wrestling to beat the elites. That is fortunate for him, as there are so many rumors of his knees being unable to do it anymore, there essentially must be some level of truth to it.
Edwards
Edwards was the opposite of Usman, as he started as a striker. He has been quite open about not being at the needed level of striking nor grappling at the time of the first fight. Edwards has truly made strides in both areas over the years, to the point that both are now strengths in his games. He is not the level of wrestler Usman is, but very few will ever be that. Edwards does, now, have great takedown defense and get ups. He should be able to neutralize any wrestling thrown at him in this fight. With that, we will get the stand up affair we want to see.
With the fight playing out in the stand-up, it is wide open for either fighter to win. Usman will have the significant power edge to be sure. Edwards is probably still the more sophisticated and cleaner striker, but I have a difficult time pin pointing which fighter will have the volume edge. Edwards is one of, if not the best in the division at not being hit nor taking damage. The finishing upside lies with Usman but I think seeing the judge’s scorecards is the most likely outcome of this fight. I am stopping short of picking a new champion, but if I were forced to put action on this fight, it would certainly be on the +310 value side of Leon Edwards.
Co-Main Event
The Co-main event features a couple of big names in the middleweight division. Luke Rockhold will make the cut to 185 lbs for the first time since 2018. He will take on Paulo Costa, who makes the cut for the first time since his 2020 title shot against Adesanya. Much more on this fight later as we will have a wager on it.
Remainder Of UFC 278 Fight Card
The pay per view portion of the card kicks off with the promotion propping up Tyson Pedro. He is an 8 to 1 favorite against Harry Hunsucker. Hunsucker has been knocked out thrice at heavyweight under the UFC banner. He is now getting a crack at light heavyweight before most likely receiving his walking papers. After this finish, apparently the promotion believes we will need a cool down period. They have changed the bout order to have Wu Yanan vs Lucie Pudilva on the pay per view portion and dropped Alexandr Romanov vs Marcin Tybura to the televised prelims. I am unsure of the reasoning for this shift. The middle bout on the pay per view card is an absolutely awesome bantamweight fight between Merab Dvalishvili and Jose Aldo.
As mentioned, the televised prelims are now headlined by Romanov vs Tybura. This is the promotion’s second attempt to pit Romanov against a truly developed fighter and grappler. The first time was against Juan Espino, and it was a terrible look for the high end wrestler Romanov at the end of the fight. An exhausted Romanov milked a groin strike to a technical split decision on the judge’s scorecards. Tybura offers a similar challenge, as he is not the same wrestler as Espino, but is a very solid grappler. Tybura is quite improved in his wrestling game and has had his struggles with strikers. It should be noted Tybura has notched 13 takedowns and allowed zero over the past four years. I do see value at +330 on Tybura in this fight. We will also get looks at sound prospects Miranda Granger and Sean Woodsen on the televised prelims.
The early prelims also bring some well made fights and fighters that have legitimate ceilings. The fighters to watch on those early prelims are AJ Fletcher and Amir Albazi.
UFC 278 Bet Sheet
We will have four betting picks for the UFC 278 fight card. One of our picks will come at a very significant plus figure. The other three will not requite laying any more than -160. I love this slate of bets so get in for the low risk high reward slate. We will have one bet each on the early and televised prelims, with the final two coming on the pay per view. Check above for another bonus big plus figure lean as well.
Click the link below for a full breakdown with recommended betting pick and analyses.
Paulo Costa vs Luke Rockhold
Merab Dvalishvili vs Jose Aldo
Jared Gordon vs Leo Santos
AJ Fletcher vs Ange Loosa
Other UFC 278 Fight Predictions
Kamaru Usman via decision over Leon Edwards
Marcin Tybura via late ground and pound over Alexandr Romanov
Tyson Pedro via KO over Harry Hunsucker
Lucie Pudilova via decision over Wu Yunan
Sean Woodsen via decision over Luis Saldana
Miranda Maverick via decision over Shanna Young
Amir Albazi via submission over Francisco Figueiredo
Aoriqileng via KO over Jay Perrin
Victor Altamirano via decision over Daniel Da Silva