Merab Dvalishvili vs Jose Aldo Fight Odds
Merab Dvalishvili -130 vs Jose Aldo
Fight is at 135 lbs and is +150 to end inside the distance.
Whew this fight is highly likely to see a fighter earn a performance bonus. This is an extremely high end bantamweight fight and the next step up for future title challenger and likely champ, Merab Dvalishvili. Dvalishvili is coming off his worst performance in some time, as he was hurt in and in legitimate trouble in the first round of his most recent fight.
Marlon Moraes knocked down and truly had Dvalishvili on the ropes. Dvalishvili however stayed with it and rallied in the second round to get a finish in the second round. He was able to do so because he is one of the best conditioned fighters in the UFC. It is difficult to think of anyone outside of Colby Covington that rivals him in that aspect, particularly at the highest levels of the sport.
Dvalishvili’s striking is catching up, but that is the worst part of his game at the moment, and where he will be at a disadvantage in this fight. What he does have is a never ending motor and relentless wrestling when he needs it. That aspect will serve him well in this matchup. He will be able to weaponize his movement, motor and cardio to land takedowns and mat return his opponent often.
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Jose Aldo remains a truly fantastic striker even at the very back end of his career. He has now made the transition fully to bantamweight. Aldo remains a fixture at the top of the division, but his fight with Petr Yan showed us it is highly unlikely he is able to ever become a champion again. He remains well rounded and a great striker, but not one with a large degree of movement. His Muay Thai style and stance keeps him more stationary, which is a problem in this matchup. Dvalishvili will have an easy time with his takedown entries and grind Aldo down in a consistent fashion. We will see multiple mat returns of Aldo before he ultimately accepts trying to play jiu jitsu on bottom.
What To Bet
I believe Dvalishvili should be a significant favorite in this fight. The first round turmoil against Moraes is likely to thank for the current line. Let’s not forget, Moraes last win was against Aldo and he is the more explosive fighter than Aldo in that first round. Aldo is not dead in the water by any means and is the superior striker, but that is not likely to matter in this fight. Unless Aldo starches the highly durable and conditioned Dvalishvili early in a round, I think we see a wrestling heavy and quite dominant win from Merab.
Betting Pick: Dvalishvili -130
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