Jared Gordon vs Leo Santos Fight Odds
Jared Gordon -265 vs Leo Santos
Fight is at 155 lbs and is +120 to end inside the distance.
Let me start with Jared Gordon on this fight. He has fought at featherweight but it appears he has settled on the lightweight division now. He is 6-4 under the UFC banner. His well rounded and mixed approach generally needs to work for him on the floor to notch wins. He is 0-3 in the promotion in fights in which he did not notch any takedowns. Not coincidentally, he has struggled with superior grapplers.
The list of fighters he has lost to reads Grant Dawson, Charles Oliveira, Joaquim Silva and Diego Ferreria. Gordon is also a fighter that has difficulty finding finishes, his last five wins have all come by way of decision. I suspect we will not see a wrestling heavy approach form Gordon, more on that in a bit. Gordon will likely have to win this fight in the stand up, but I only see one area where he has a potential advantage. That is in the cardio. Gordon could win this fight in the later stages if we see the gas tank of his opponent run out again.
UFC 278 Promo Code
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Leonardo Santos is an extremely well rounded and dangerous finisher. He is on a two fight skid in which he was finished in the second and third rounds due to the depletion of his gas tank. When he hurts an opponent and gasses himself out going for the kill, I have a hard time being mad at that type of gassing out. That is also not considering two facts. The first is that his fight against Clay Guida should have been stopped after Santos dropped him and poured it on. His KO loss to Grant Dawson came with just one second left in the fight.
Santos has every advantage in the first two rounds of this fight. Santos throws tight and sharp in the standup. His punches come with power and he has dropped three UFC opponents. We have also seen Gordon not be great at taking damage, so that could easily come into play from the first exchange forward. On to the grappling, which is a huge factor. Santos is one of the most elite grapplers in all of the UFC. If he has anything of a gas tank left on the mat, he will have a massive advantage and be very live for a submission.
What To Bet
I frankly am pleasantly surprised by the line of this fight. It seems to take more into account recent results than actual skill sets. Gordon is going to have to take this fight to deep water and survive the more dangerous striker and much more dangerous grappler to get to the portion of the fight where his gas tank can take over. I suspect he will have trouble doing that with not being able to mix in wrestling in the early portions. The +225 flat line on Santos is attractive enough, but a decision win is unlikely. More likely is a finish in those first two rounds, so I am opting for the big +500 return on Santos ITD.
Betting Pick: Santos ITD +500
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