Paulo Costa vs Luke Rockhold Fight Odds
Paulo Costa -350 vs Luke Rockhold
Fight is at 185 lbs and is -300 to end inside the distance.
My initial reaction to this fight announcement was quite literally “what is Luke Rockhold thinking taking this fight”? After rewatching film my reaction has not changed a bit. I do not want to take away from Luke Rockhold, he has had an extraordinary career. He is a previous champion. He is also a Polo model so clearly money is not his motivation for continuing to fight. Rockhold’s past accomplishments cannot be denied, but he has not had many high points since winning the middleweight title from Chris Weidman in 2015. Rockhold has had just four fights since then, having been brutally knocked out in three of them. He has also not fought at all in over three years and has not cut to 185 since 2019. Rockhold’s chin, if not fully gone, has all of the symptoms of it.
UFC 278 Promo Code
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The Rockhold chin is why I am so fully puzzled as to why he would take this fight. Now add in a weight cut only to be matched up with a massive muscular middleweight with real power in Paulo Costa. Of course Costa has had a real fall from grace since his brutally poor showing in his title fight with Israel Adesanya. His only fight since that time was without a full weight cut against Marvin Vettori at 205 lbs. He lost that fight but showed well for himself as a fighter that can bounce back.
Weight cut and cardio issues will be a question mark for Costa at middleweight going forward, but it will not be an issue in this fight. It is a virtual certainty this fight is over inside of seven minutes. The one aspect from Rockhold that Costa will have to be hyper aware of is being taken down and ground and pounded out. That is the lone true path to victory for Rockhold. Outside of that, Costa will be happy to exchange in the stand up, and he will have massive power and durability edges there.
What To Bet With A Potential Supplemental Wager
I am fairly certain this fight ends in that first seven minutes. With that being the case, I truly considered opting for the -300 fight ends inside the distance prop. That is a sound bet, and I would not blame you a bit if you used it as a hedge on the fighter bet. That said, we only have to lay about half of that -300 to get Costa inside the distance at -160. It likely takes just once semi clean shot to the Rockhold chin for Costa to put him out. You should note that right at the time of this posting Costa said he can make the weight tonight if needed, so tentatively expect no issues on the scale.
Betting Pick: Costa ITD -160
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