The Seattle Mariners and San Diego Padres will close down their three-game interleague series at Petco Park in San Diego on Sunday afternoon, so here’s the best Mariners vs. Padres betting pick, as we’re excluding their Saturday night middle contest from the analysis.
The Padres destroyed the Mariners in the opener this past Friday, 16-1. They were listed as firm -220 home favorites, and according to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Padres are -205 moneyline favorites to win the closing contest. The Mariners are listed at +188 with a total of 7.0 runs.
Seattle hopes to make amends for Friday’s embarrassment
The Seattle Mariners haven’t been at their best lately, and that heavy loss to the Padres was their fourth straight defeat and ninth in the last 12 outings excluding Saturday’s clash at Petco Park. Seattle dropped to 21-24 on the season, trailing 5.5 games behind the AL West leader, the Oakland Athletics.
The Mariners are scoring only 3.78 runs per game (26th in the MLB) on a .197/.279/.356 slash line. Their batting average is the worst in baseball by far, while the Mariners’ OPS of .635 is the worst in the majors, too.
Yusei Kikuchi will toe the slab for Seattle on Sunday, and the 29-year-old left-hander is 1-3 with a 4.32 and 1.10 WHIP in eight starts this season. He’s yielded exactly three earned runs in each of his previous three starts, though Kikuchi tossed 19.1 frames during that stretch. The lefty is 1-1 with a 5.79 ERA in three career starts against the Padres.
San Diego hopes to extend its good run of form
The San Diego Padres were on a seven-game winning streak following that dismantling of the Mariners on Friday. It was their eighth straight victory at Petco Park, as the Padres improved to 28-17 on the season and tied the Giants for the top spot in the NL West.
San Diego is tallying 4.56 runs per game (13th in the MLB) while slashing .243/.329/.383. The Padres hit just 45 home runs, and their slugging percentage is the 12th-worst in the majors, but San Diego’s offense has improved a lot lately, scoring five or more runs in eight of its last 11 appearances.
Yu Darvish will get the starting nod Sunday, and the 34-year-old ace is 4-1 in nine starts this season. Darvish owns a terrific 1.81 ERA and 0.88 WHIP along with a 69/13 K/BB ratio across 54.2 frames of work. The righty is 5-4 with a 4.46 ERA in 12 career starts against Seattle, but he hasn’t met the Mariners since 2017.
- 3-9 in the last 12 games overall
- 2-9 in the last 11 games on the road
- 4-11 in the last 15 games against San Diego
- 10-1 in the last 11 games overall
- 11-2 in the last 13 games at home
- 8-1 in Yu Darvish’s nine starts this season
Yusei Kikuchi will have a tall task against the Padres who are swinging a hot bat at the moment. San Diego has an OPS of .825 over the last 15 days, and the Padres are batting .280 in that span.
On the other side, Yu Darvish is enjoying a wonderful season and should dominate the Mariners’ toothless offense. Last time out, Darvish tossed seven scoreless innings against the Rockies at home while punching out 10. Hereof, give me the hosts to win straight up.
Pick: Take San Diego Padres at -205
I would stick with the Padres to win, and if you’re not satisfied with the odds, take the hosts to cover instead of wagering on the totals. Darvish could easily shut down the Mariners, while the Padres’ relievers sport the lowest ERA in baseball (2.57). The Mariners bullpen is 12th in the majors with a 3.87 ERA.
On the other hand, the Padres could score a bunch of runs on their own if they stay hot at the plate. I’m backing the under only because the visitors are in serious crisis, while Yu Darvish has been pretty sharp so far this season.
Pick: Go under 7.0 runs at -120