Date & Time: July 6, 2019 7:15 PM (EDT)

Location: Citi Field Queens, New York

Betting Odds: Philadelphia-145/New York+125

Total O/U: 9

Two divisional-rivals underperforming from preseason expectations, the Philadelphia Phillies (46-42) and the New York Mets (39-49) play their second game of a three-game series. Like their teams, two pitchers that are also underperforming meet in tonight’s game, Jake Arrieta (8-6 4.43 ERA) of the Phillies and Noah Syndergaard (5-4 4.56 ERA).

Arrieta is coming off two rough starts against divisional foes. Arrieta allowed four earned runs against the Miami Marlins in his last start. In his start prior, Arrieta faced off against the Mets and allowed five earned runs. Both outings Arrieta lasted six innings and managed to get a win thanks to excellent run support. Seven of Arrieta’s 17 starts this season he has allowed four or more earned runs. His 1.42 WHIP is inflamed thanks to his 40 walks in 103 ⅔ innings.

Syndergaard’s season hasn’t been as expected either. Eight of Syndergaard’s 16 starts he has allowed four or more earned runs. However, a big chunk of those runs has come in late-inning scenarios where Syndeergard wasn’t pulled from the game in time. Thor allowed five earned runs in five innings against the Phillies back in April. It’s clear that Syndergaard isn’t pitching as well as he has in the past, not just because of his high ERA, but also his decline in strikeouts, 98 in 100 ⅔ innings (573 strikeouts in 518 innings in his career prior to this season).

Both Arrieta and Thor are struggling in this one, so the OVER should be a certainty. Of the two pitchers, Syndergaard has looked better throughout the season compared to Arrieta, who has looked flat at times and seems to be tossing the ball down the middle of the plate quite often. The Mets have better offense in nearly every category, except runs per game. They get plenty of scoring opportunities but have missed out too many times this season. I like the Mets to capitalize on the plenty of opportunities that Arrieta gives them today.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES vs NEW YORK METS FREE PREDICTION

Free MLB Pick: ML Winner – New York, RL Winner – New York, O/U – Over

Confidence Level: 4/5

NOTES

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games.

Philadelphia is 3-8 SU in their last 11 road games.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games in New York.

The Mets are 22-18 SU at home this season.

The Phillies are 19-25 SU on the road this season.