Date & Time: April 12, 2019, 7:10 PM (EDT)

Location: Marlins Park Miami, Florida

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Betting Odds: Phillies-160/Marlins+144

Total O/U: 8.5

After starting the season 4-0, the Philadelphia Phillies (7-4) have come back to reality and lost four of their last seven games, including their last two against the Washington Nationals while being outscored 25-7. If there is ever a team to get back on track against, it is most likely the Miami Marlins (3-10).

Jake Arrieta (1-1 2.77 ERA) will be taking the mound for the Phillies against a Marlins pitcher who has had a good start to his season, Sandy Alcantara (1-0 1.50 ERA).

In his first start this season, Alcantara went eight full innings and only allowed four hits against a struggling Colorado Rockies team, striking them out six times. His next start was a little less impressive, only lasting four innings and giving up two runs, while striking out zero batters and walking five against the Atlanta Braves.

Arrieta has had some trouble with walks this season too. In his first start of the season, Arrieta got the win against the Braves, only allowing three hits and one earned run in six innings, but walked six batters in the process. His second start was against the Minnesota Twins, where he lasted seven innings and allowed three earned runs while walking three more batters and only striking out one.

Both pitchers seem to be having trouble with command early in the season, which means we could see a lot more walks again today, which lead to runs. The Phillies offense doesn’t need any help scoring runs this season (6th best in baseball), but the Marlins could use the extra help (second-to-last in scoring in the league).

The bats have cooled off a bit in Philly, but today should be a great opportunity for them to get back on track after an off day yesterday. Alcantara will have trouble finding the zone in this game and when he does, the Phillies should be able to hop on the ball and chase him out of this game early. The Phillies show just how big the gap is between the the Marlins and the rest of the N.L. East in this game. Look for J.T. Realmuto to hit a home run in his first game back in Miami since joining the Phillies.


Baseball Pick: ML Winner – Phillies, RL Winner – Phillies, O/U – Over

Confidence Level: 4/5


The total has gone OVER in 5 of the last 6 road games for Philadelphia.

Philadelphia is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games against Miami.

Philadelphia is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 road games against Miami.

Miami is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 home games.