A quote wrongly attributed to Albert Einstein/Ben Franklin/Mark Twin says that insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Nobody knows if any of the three actually said it.
I’m here to tell you that I have a pick for tonight’s Athletics/Mariners game, but I will not tempt fate nor go insane by fading the Mariners again. This luckbox team continues to find ways to win games despite several statistic indicators that say otherwise. It is downright maddening and, well, apparently, insane, but I’ll still be picking and choosing my spots to go against Seattle.
Today is not one of those days. The betting markets have actually sided up with the M’s for what is a really good pitching matchup that won’t get much respect because of the battle in Milwaukee between Carlos Rodon and Corbin Burnes, but Chris Bassitt vs. Logan Gilbert is pretty darn good as well.
Gilbert is a really promising arm for the Mariners. The 6-foot-6 right-hander is off to an excellent start with a 3.50 ERA and a 3.07 FIP in his 54 innings of work at the MLB level. He simply dominated and embarrassed minor league hitters in 2019 and then so much in one start in 2021 that the Mariners decided to call him up. He has allowed 22 runs on just 41 hits in 54 innings of work. He’s struck out 62 and walked 12.
Gilbert throws hard and also pitches in a really favorable pitcher’s park, even though he hasn’t taken full advantage of his surroundings. He has a 4.35 ERA in 31 starts at home and has allowed four of his five home runs, which is sort of crazy. With that said, Gilbert’s first two starts came at home and he allowed seven runs on nine hits in 6.2 innings.
He’s been on the wrong side of luck a little bit at home with a 62% LOB%, something that I would expect to see increase as the season goes along. He’s a guy gaining more confidence as he goes along and coming off of a season-high nine strikeouts in his first start of the second half is a good sign.
Bassitt rolls into this start with a 3.31 ERA and a 3.46 FIP in his 125 innings of work over 20 starts. He’s got everything that you could want in a pitcher with over a strikeout per inning. Bassitt just shines in so many different ways. His 10.2% HR/FB% is solid. His low BB% at 5.7% is strong. His 32.5% Hard Hit% is excellent. There just aren’t a lot of worries with him and there shouldn’t be against this bad Mariners offense at T-Mobile Park.
I feel like this total should be 7. I’m not sure why it is 7.5. I’ll take a shot with the under here today.
Pick: Under 7.5
Other game: Texas Rangers at Houston Astros