Date & Time: June 24, 2019 7:05 PM (EDT)
Location: Citizens Bank Park Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Betting Odds: New York+112/Philadelphia-122
Total O/U: 9.5
The New York Mets (37-41) begin an important four-game series against division rival Philadelphia Phillies (39-38). Taking the mound for the Mets will be lefty Steven Matz (5-5 4.28 ERA) and he will be facing Zach Eflin (6-7 2.83 ERA).
Despite his high ERA, Matz has had a pretty decent season. Matz has made 13 starts this season and 11 of them he has allowed three earned runs or less. He has faced the Phillies twice so far this season and had one good outing, and got torched in the other. In his bad outing, Matz got smoked for six earned runs without recording a single out. He followed that up a week later by going six innings and only allowing one earned run. Matz has struggled giving up home runs this season, allowing 15 in 73 ⅔ innings.
His record doesn’t show it, but Eflin has had a really good start to his season. Eflin has allowed only two earned runs or less in nine of his 13 starts this year. Eflin is one of the rare pitchers in the league who can go deep into games on a consistent basis. He has pitched seven full innings or more in five of his starts, including two complete games (only Lucas Giolito of the White Sox has two complete games as well). One of his worst starts of the season came against the Mets earlier this season.
The Phillies are struggling mightily, having just been swept by the Miami Marlins at home. Their bullpen is struggling at the moment with a few of their best arms on the IL. The Mets have been losing a lot of games in the late innings due to their bullpen. The way the Phillies offense is going right now (15 runs in their last seven games), that may not be an issue tonight for the Mets. The Phillies are on a terrible losing streak and if the Mets bullpen can hold on, New York should get a win in this one, even against a quality pitcher like Eflin. I like the UNDER as well do to the struggling offense of Philadelphia and the fact that both pitchers could go seven innings only allowing one or two earned runs.
NEW YORK METS vs PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES FREE PREDICTION
MLB Pick: ML Winner – New York, RL Winner – New York, O/U – Under
Confidence Level: 4/5
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games.
Philadelphia is 0-7 SU in their last 7 games.
Philadelphia is 1-6 SU in their last 7 home games.
Philadelphia is 7-13 SU against LHP this season.
The total has gone UNDER in 23 of Philadelphia’s 39 home games this season.