Date & Time: June 17, 2019 7:20 PM (EDT)

Location: SunTrust Park Atlanta, Georgia

Betting Odds: New York+139/Atlanta-149

Total O/U: 9

The New York Mets (34-37) and their struggling bullpen begin a three-game series against the hot division rival Atlanta Braves (42-30). Possible trade candidate Zack Wheeler (5-4 4.87 ERA) of the Mets goes up against N.L. Cy Young candidate Mike Soroka (7-1 1.92 ERA) of the Braves.

Wheeler hasn’t had the best season, but it has been a better year than his inflated ERA suggests. He has a respectable 1.29 WHIP and has struck out 99 batters in 88 ⅔ innings. Home runs have been Wheeler’s biggest issue this season, allowing 13 on the year and 10 in his last six starts. Compared to the runs he has allowed, Wheeler hasn’t given up that many hits. Teams are just taking advantage of scoring opportunities against Wheeler when they present themselves. Wheeler’s last start was one of his worst of the season, 4 ⅔ innings allowing 10 hits, two home runs, and five earned runs against the New York Yankees.

Soroka has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year and probably only trails Hyun-Jin Ryu in the N.L. Cy Young race at the moment. In his 11 starts this season, Soroka has pitched 70 ⅓ innings, has an ERA of 1.92, a WHIP of 0.97, and has 60 K’s to 18 walks. Soroka is also coming off of his worst start of the season, allowing five earned runs on 10 hits in five innings to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Soroka has only allowed two home runs all season. He has allowed one earned run or less in nine of his 11 starts.

The Braves offense is now fourth in runs per game and the Mets are down to 17th after a hot start to the season. The New York bullpen lost three games for the Mets in their previous series against the St. Louis Cardinals. I like Soroka and Wheeler to both have a bounce back game today, but the Atlanta offense is too hot right now and Soroka will have the better day. Once Wheeler gets pulled, the Mets bullpen might cost them another game. The starting pitchers will keep the score low, and the UNDER should be the bet here as well, so long as the Mets bullpen doesn’t surrender four or more runs of their own.

 

NEW YORK METS vs ATLANTA BRAVES FREE PREDICTION

Free MLB Pick: ML Winner –Atlanta, RL Winner –Atlanta, O/U – Under

Confidence Level: 4/5

NOTES

New York is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games.

New York is 3-11 SU in their last 14 road games.

New York is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games on the road in Atlanta.

Atlanta is 9-1 SU in their last 10 games.

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