With the Los Angeles Dodgers knocked out of the postseason in the NLDS, it is safe to say that at least a portion of MLB fans will view the ALCS as the de facto World Series. Why? Because whoever wins is going to be a heavy favorite to win the Series against the Nationals (and an even heavier favorite against the Cardinals should they make it).
It doesn’t matter if it is the New York Yankees or the Houston Astros that come out ahead. The winner of the ALCS is going to be expected to win it all again this year. So—how is the ALCS going to play out?
So far, the Series is tied at a game apiece, 1-1. The Yankees took Game One in Houston with a 7-0 beat down of the Astros. But then Houston battled back and won Game Two, 3-2, thanks to a Carlos Correa home run in the bottom of the 11th inning Sunday night.
If you are just interested in betting on who wins, DraftKings has the Astros at -155 and the Yankees at +130. But if you are looking for a little more of a payout, DraftKings is also offering odds on the exact outcome of the Series:
- Houston Astros to win 4-2 +300
- New York Yankees to win 4-2 +450
- New York Yankees to win 4-1 +550
- Houston Astros to win 4-3 +300
- New York Yankees to win 4-3 +500
- Houston Astros to win 4-1 +650
So—who is going to win and by what outcome?
Popular opinion has the Astros taking the Series because they have a better offensive attack and pitching staff than the Yankees. New York has a very potent offense as well, but their pitching staff has had some struggles during the regular season—which is why the Astros are the favorites.
But during the postseason, the Yankees have kept hitting (.273 BA; .477 slugging; .839 OPS; nine home runs). Houston, on the other hand, has struggled at the plate (.218 BA; .367 slugging; .648 OPS; eight home runs).
New York’s pitching staff has been pretty dominant, too (1.96 ERA; .194 BAA). Houston’s has been good, but not as good as the Yankees (3.71 ERA; .239).
Being the better team during the regular season means nothing once the postseason starts. With how both sides have played so far during the postseason, it looks like the Yankees should win this Series.
However, it bears noting that the Astros did win the season series with the Yankees, 4-3. Also, there is a good chance that Game Four could get pushed back a day due to weather. While that would mean Greinke can start on regular rest in Game Four, Game Five will be the next day.
Oh—and the next three games are all in New York.
As well as Houston played through the regular season, it is hard to imagine them getting swept in New York and the Yankees winning the Series, 4-1. But there is value there as well as the Yankees winning in six, 4-2.
While the Yankees are playing better when it matters most (right now), it is hard to see the Astros not waking up and putting up a better fight—and maybe winning still. That being said, the most likely scenario has to be either team winning in seven, 4-3.
What should you do? Put money on both.