The Milwaukee Brewers square off against the San Diego Padres on Tuesday night in the middle contest of their three-game series at Petco Park in San Diego, so here’s the best betting pick for this National League showdown along with the latest odds update on BetMGM Sportsbook.
The Brewers stunned the Padres in the opener as +150 road underdogs, 3-1. They open as slight +108 dogs for Tuesday’s clash, while the Padres are listed as -115 moneyline favorites. The Brewers miss Christian Yelich (back), Lorenzo Cain (quadriceps), and Kolten Wong (oblique). On the other side, the Padres are without Austin Nola (finger), Dan Altavilla (elbow), and Matt Strahm (knee).
Milwaukee aims for its fourth straight road victory
The Milwaukee Brewers are 9-7 on the season following the last night’s victory at Petco Park. They’ve won five of their last six outings away from home including the previous three, and the Brewers are currently sitting at the second spot of the NL Central standings, half a game behind Cincinnati.
Milwaukee tallies 4.40 runs per game (13th in the MLB) while yielding 3.04 in a return (5th). Interestingly, the Brewers own the fourth-worst batting average in baseball (.209) along with the third-worst slugging percentage (.349).
Corbin Burnes will take the mound Tuesday, and the 26-year-old righty is 1-1 with a 0.49 ERA in his first three starts of the season. Burnes has been spectacular thus far, allowing no walks in 18.1 innings of work while punching out 30. He tossed a couple of innings against the Padres in his career and will face off against San Diego as a starter for the first time.
San Diego dropped five of its last seven games
The San Diego Padres fell to 10-8 on the season after Monday’s painful loss to the Brewers. Joe Musgrove struck out 13 but still surrendered three solo home runs, while the Padres’ bats had another tough night in the office.
San Diego is scoring only 4.06 runs per game (tied-19th in the majors) despite its second-best on-base percentage of .340. The Padres rank ninth in batting average (.244) and 13th in slugging percentage (.384), so there’s a lot of room for improvement for one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball.
Chris Paddack will get his fourth start of the season Monday against Milwaukee, and the 25-year-old right-hander is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Last week, Paddack fanned four through five innings of a one-run ball against Pittsburgh. He’s started once against the Brewers in his career, tossing five innings in a no-decision and yielding one earned run on one hit and a walk.
- 1-5 in the last six games against the NL West
- 9-5 in the last 14 home games against the NL Central
The Padres need to get things going offensively, and that won’t be an easy task against the red-hot Corbin Burnes. On the other side, the Brewers smacked three solo homers last night, but their offense hasn’t impressed through the first three weeks of the new season.
This could turn out to be a proper battle between Burnes and Paddack, and I think the Padres’ offense will step up after a disappointing performance in the opener. Also, the Brewers’ relievers own a 4.56 ERA, enough for the seventh-worst in the majors.
Pick: Take San Diego Padres at -115
While the Brewers’ bullpen looks shaky, the Padres’ relievers have the third-best ERA in baseball (2.53). If both starters do a good job, we should see a low-scoring affair, and I’m not surprised by that low line at exactly seven runs.
Betting on the totals seems like a tough job in this one. I would stick with the Padres to win, as you never know what might happen when the bullpens take over.
Pick: Go under 7.0 runs at -110