The Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies opened a four-game series at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia on Monday, May 3, so here’s the best betting pick for the second game of this set along with the latest odds update for Tuesday night.
The Phillies are listed as firm -185 favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Brewers are +172 road dogs with a total of 8.0 runs. Milwaukee is off to a strong start of the 2021 MLB season, but the Brewers miss catchers Omar Narvaez and Manny Pina, and Christian Yelich is still on the injury list due to back problems.
The Brewers blew a chance to sweep the reigning champs
The Milwaukee Brewers won the Dodgers series over the weekend, but they couldn’t sweep the reigning champions. After three straight wins (2-1, 3-1, and 6-5), the Brewers suffered a heavy 16-4 defeat in the closing contest on Sunday afternoon.
Milwaukee dropped to 17-11 on the season but remained atop of the NL Central, one game ahead of St. Louis. The Brewers are 19th in the majors in runs scored per game (4.04), 27th in batting average (.217), and 22nd in slugging percentage (.373).
On the other side of the ball, the Brewers surrender 4.07 runs per contest (tied-12th in the MLB). Eric Lauer will get his second start of the season on Tuesday, and the 25-year-old lefty beat the Dodgers on April 29. He tossed five innings, allowing no runs on four hits and a couple of walks.
The Phillies haven’t won two straight games since April 6
The Philadelphia Phillies entered Monday’s opener against the Brewers with a 13-15 record, sitting at the third spot of the NL East standings, one game behind the Mets and Nationals. They lost a three-game home set against the Mets this past weekend, 2-1, and the Phillies have won just five of their previous 13 games overall.
Philadelphia is tallying only 3.86 runs per game (25th in the MLB). The Phillies are batting .232 which is just below the league average, while their OPS of .681 is the ninth-worst in the majors.
Phila surrenders 4.46 runs per game (18th in the MLB). Aaron Nola will toe the slab Tuesday, and the 27-year-old righty is 2-1 with a 3.11 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in six starts this season. Last week, Nola pitched six innings in a no-decision against the Cardinals, allowing three earned runs on four hits and a walk while punching out seven.
- 1-5 in Eric Lauer’s last six starts
- 6-1 in Aaron Nola’s last seven starts at home
The Brewers are quite shorthanded, missing their first two options behind the plate along with their best player. Even if Christian Yelich returns Tuesday, I’m expecting to see some regression by the Brewers.
On the other side, the Phillies have been unpredictable thus far. Their offense desperately needs to get things going, and playing at home in this series should help. On paper, Phila possesses plenty of dangerous offensive weapons, while Aaron Nola has been solid so far this season, so I’m backing the hosts to win.
Pick: Take Philadelphia Phillies at -185
Eric Lauer had an excellent season debut last Thursday, but I don’t trust this guy at all. He went 0-2 in a couple of starts and relief appearances in 2020, sporting a terrible 13.09 ERA. Lauer is 15-19 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in his career, while the Brewers’ relievers own a 4.35 ERA in 2021 (tied-20th in the majors).
On the other side, the Phillies’ bullpen has a 4.86 ERA (26th). Citizens Bank Park is quite a hitter-friendly ballpark, so give me the over on the totals.
Pick: Go over 8.0 runs at +100