Date & Time: July 3, 2019  PM (EDT)

Location: Great American Ball Park Cincinnati, Ohio

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Betting Odds: Milwaukee+117/Cincinnati-127

Total O/U: 10

In the third of their four-game series, the Milwaukee Brewers (46-40) and Cincinnati Reds (39-44) look to take a 2-1 series lead. Jhoulys Chacin (3-8 5.60 ERA) will start for the Brewers and Sonny Gray (4-5 3.94 ERA) gets the start for the Reds.

Chacin’s season has had plenty of rough starts this in which he has gotten rocked. In his two starts against the Reds, Chacin has allowed seven earned runs and six walks in 10 innings. Chacin has three starts this season where he has allowed five or more earned runs. Walks and home runs has been his two biggest issue this season. He has 35 walks and has allowed 15 home runs in just 72 ⅓ innings. His 1.52 WHIP is one of the highest in the league with pitchers with at least 72 innings pitched.

Gray has made two starts against the Brewers this season, one bad, and one good. His first start he went six scoreless, but his most recent start, June 21st, Gray got touched up for four earned runs in 4 ⅓ innings. Gray has surrendered eight walks in 10 ⅓ innings against the Brewers this season. His season has been a little more consistent than Chacin’s. Gray has eight starts where has allowed two earned runs or less and only two where has allowed more than three (both four earned run games).

The first two games of the series have been high scoring (23 total runs) and this one should be no different. It’s best to trust the more consistent pitcher in this matchup. Chacin has had some really bad games this year and even Gray’s worst games are about Chacin’s averages at this point. I like Gray and the Reds to get the win today and take the series lead. Another high scoring game gives us the OVER as well.

 

MILWAUKEE BREWERS vs CINCINNATI REDS FREE PREDICTION

Free MLB Pick: ML Winner – Milwaukee, RL Winner – Milwaukee, O/U – Over

Confidence Level: 4/5

NOTES

Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in their last 5 road games.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games against Milwaukee.

Cincinnati is 7-2 SU in their last 9 home games.

Cincinnati is 18-15 SU as a favorite this season, Milwaukee 11-15 SU as an underdog.

Cincinnati is 7-1 SU in the last 8 games started by Gray.