Date & Time: May 17, 2019 7:20 PM (EDT)
Location: SunTrust Park Atlanta, Georgia
Betting Odds: Milwaukee+113/Atlanta-124
Total O/U: 9
The hot pitching Milwaukee Brewers (27-19) travel to Atlanta to begin a three-game series against the Braves (23-21). Starting the series for the Brewers will be Jhoulys Chacin (3-4 4.57 ERA) and going for the Braves will be Max Fried (5-2 3.25 ERA).
This will Chacin’s 10th start of the season. His first seven were a little rocky, but his last three he has done well. In his last three starts, Chacin has pitched 17 innings and only allowed three earned runs. Chacin has had trouble with walks this season and never pitches too deep into a game. His longest start went 6 ⅓ innings, and six of his starts he didn’t finish the sixth inning.
Tonight will be Fried’s ninth start and 11th overall appearance. After only allowing two earned runs in his first 19 ⅓ innings, Fried has come back to earth by allowing 14 earned runs in the last 24 innings. His last two starts were against the Arizona Diamondbacks (five innings, nine hits, three earned runs) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (one inning, four hits, and four earned runs).
This will be a battle of two different pitching styles. Chacin likes to work the zone while Fried likes to attack hitters. The Brewers pitching staff has been incredible the past two weeks, holding a team ERA of 1.81 in their last 13 games. The Brewers are 8-6 against LHP this season. Chacin is on a hot streak and Fried is on the decline. The Brewers offense scored 22 runs in their last three games (all wins). I think the Brewers get the win in this one. If the game is tied in the late innings, the Brewers have a huge advantage as Atlanta has one of the worst bullpens in the National League. If they run into Josh Hader of the Brewers, it will be lights out for the Atlanta offense. This should be a low scoring game with the Brewers pulling the “upset”.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS vs ATLANTA BRAVES FREE PREDICTION
Free MLB Pick: ML Winner –Milwaukee, RL Winner –Milwaukee, O/U – Under
Confidence Level: 4/5
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee’s last 7 games.
Milwaukee is 10-3 SU in their last 13 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee’s last 8 road games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 6 games played on Friday.
Atlanta is 10-13 ATS at home this season.