The third contest of a four-game series at Truist Park in Atlanta is set for Wednesday night, so here’s the best betting pick for the Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves showdown along with the latest odds on BetMGM Sportsbook.
The Marlins have a lead after the first two games. They stunned the Braves 5-3 as +123 underdogs in the opener and 14-8 as +150 dogs in the second clash on Tuesday night. The Braves open as massive -225 favorites for Wednesday’s game, while the totals sit at 8.5 runs.
Miami finally got things going on the offensive end
The Miami Marlins are 4-6 on the season following that dismantling of Atlanta on Tuesday. It was their third win in the last four outings, and the Marlins finally found the right rhythm at the plate. The former Braves outfielder Adam Duvall hit a couple of homers and drove in seven, while the Marlins recorded a whopping 17 hits.
Miami entered yesterday’s clash as the fifth-most inefficient team in the majors, scoring just 3.22 runs per game. Also, the Marlins were 23rd in batting average (.214) and 29th in slugging percentage (.325).
Nick Neidert will toe the slab for the Marlins on Wednesday, getting his second start of the season. Six days ago, the 24-year-old right-hander tossed 4.1 innings in a no-decision against the Mets and yielded one earned run on three hits and five walks. Neidert met the Braves once last year and threw a couple of scoreless innings as a reliever.
Atlanta looks to stop a three-game slide
The Atlanta Braves haven’t started the new season on the right foot and are 4-7 at the moment. They’ve played in sequences, and after four straight losses to open the campaign and four straight wins over Washington and Philadelphia, the Braves are on a losing streak once again.
Atlanta is tenth in the majors in slugging percentage (.400) mostly thanks to 14 home runs through their first ten outings in 2021. The Braves are batting just .206 (27th in the MLB), and their on-base percentage of .273 is the second-worst in baseball.
Charlie Morton will get the starting nod Wednesday night, and the 37-year-old righty is 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA after his first two starts in 2021. Morton faced off against the Phillies twice and yielded four earned runs on ten hits and three walks through 11 frames while punching out 12. He’s 7-4 with a 3.77 ERA in 13 career starts against Miami.
- 4-8 in the last 12 games against the NL East
- 5-10 in the last 15 road tilts against Atlanta
- 13-6 in the last 19 games against Miami
- 9-4 in the last 13 outings at home as favorites of -200 or more
The Braves have to improve as soon as possible, although it’s still early in the season. Their offense has been awful thus far, and the Braves arguably have one of the most talented lineups in baseball. Therefore, I’m expecting Atlanta to bounce back in this one and beat the Marlins by two or more runs.
Miami’s relievers own a 5.19 ERA (23rd in the MLB), while Nick Neidert could easily get routed by the Braves’ bats. On the other side, the Braves’ bullpen enters this clash with the fourth-best ERA in the majors (2.62).
Pick: Take Atlanta Braves -1.5 at -110
This should be a proper high-scoring affair, although both teams have struggled offensively thus far. They got things going yesterday, and after 22 runs in total, I just have to bet on the over. Remember that last season Atlanta beat Miami 29-9 in one of the games played at Truist Park.
As I’ve mentioned above, the Marlins’ bullpen has been an issue for Don Mattingly. If the Braves start to hit hard, the Marlins will be in big trouble. Still, the hosts to cover remains my top betting pick here.
Pick: Go over 8.5 runs at -105