What an ending last night in Toronto, as the Blue Jays came home to Rogers Centre and finished off a 6-4 win with a barehand, over-the-shoulder grab from Santiago Espinal. It was a competitive game for a while until Toronto put up a three-spot in the seventh to take a 6-2 lead. Credit to the Royals for battling back.
Today’s game features Mike Minor for the Royals and Alek Manoah for the Blue Jays. We’ve seen a pretty big line movement on the Jays in this one, as Minor brings an ERA well north of 5.00 north of the border and Manoah is a guy that has impressed in his young MLB career.
I’ll call out spoiler alert here because I really feel like the Royals are a live dog today. Manoah hasn’t pitched since July 9 and he is a fiery young kid that pitches with a lot of emotion. His first Blue Jays start in Toronto will fit the bill. He may have a tendency to overthrow today and he hasn’t done anything but a sim game and side sessions. It will be his first start on the Rogers Centre mound. There is just a lot going on with him in this one.
While those are largely narrative sorts of things and opinions, I do think they carry some weight. Pitching at the MLB level is hard enough without complicating matters with some nerves or some extra juice. As it is, Manoah has a 2.90 ERA, but a 4.25 FIP. He has already allowed seven home runs in his 40.1 innings of work. It’s just that he also has a .233 BABIP against and that five of his seven homers against have been solo shots.
I fully realize the discrepancy between these two offenses. The Blue Jays are also going to throw a ton of righties at Mike Minor in this one. The Royals traded away Jorge Soler on Friday, so that takes one of the more potent bats away from the lineup. However, as this line continues to run out, I can’t help but think that it has just gotten too large.
Minor is a positive regression candidate with a 5.32 ERA, a 4.39 xERA, and a 4.10 FIP. His 63.3% LOB% is the root cause of his high ERA. Minor has a .300 BABIP with a Hard Hit% of 36.3%, which is better than league average. I just feel like he’s fallen on the wrong side of bad luck a lot this season and certainly has some encouraging signs.
He has a .277 wOBA against with the bases empty, but a .398 with men on base and a .453 with men in scoring position, so Cluster Luck has certainly been a factor for him.
Maybe this isn’t the best spot to gamble on his regression, but we’re also looking at a dog in the +200 range that I think is pretty live. While the app will read 1 unit to win X, you can do a half-unit here. You can do a half-unit on the money line and a half-unit on the +1.5, which now sits at plus money. You can just look at the Royals for the 1st 5 if you want or the 1st 5 run line.
Sometimes it isn’t about the matchup, the handicap, and the breakdown of all of those stats and other elements. Sometimes it is just about a line that looks to be too big. I think this line is too big, especially as some of the books that cater more to public bettors.
It’s a big swing, but one worth taking.
Pick: Kansas City Royals
Other games: Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets; Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers