The Reds were a nice underdog winner for us yesterday, as we split the dogs and hit the total for a positive night. The Reds are a dog again today with Wade Miley on the bump against Rich Hill. Cincinnati only managed to keep pace with the Brewers, as Milwaukee downed the Braves. The Mets only dropped a game to the Nationals, as the rest of the NL East teams also lost.
These two teams were relatively quiet yesterday. The Mets added Javier Baez and Trevor Williams, giving up 2020 first-round pick Pete Crow-Armstrong in the deal. Baez will slot in at shortstop until Francisco Lindor returns and then move over to second base. Williams will try to provide some relief for the infirmary ward known as the starting rotation.
The Redlegs are still being viewed and treated as a team with contrasting home/road splits. In fairness, it is a big difference, as the Reds have a .342 wOBA at home and a .314 wOBA on the road. That .314 wOBA on the road ranks 13th, though, and they’ve had much better fortunes of late away from the friendly confines. This split used to be much steeper, but now the Reds seem to have found a way to hit better away from the Ohio River.
The Reds have scored 5.08 runs per game in their last 25 road games, which dates back to June 3, when everything effectively changed in Major League Baseball. Sure, they’ve still fared a lot better at home for the full season, but they’ve been a very respectable road offense in that span. They put up six last night with a good effort against the Mets bullpen.
The starting point for this handicap is Rich Hill. Around the time when foreign substances were banned, Hill was very vocal about the MLBPA’s inability to step in and protect its players. Hill wasn’t just talking as a veteran. He was talking as a guy who uses the sticky stuff. How do we know? Well, since June 12, Hill has a 5.40 ERA with a 5.74 FIP in 38.1 innings of work. He only has 29 strikeouts against 18 walks. He has allowed seven home runs and made four of those seven starts at Tropicana Field, another at T-Mobile Park, and his most recent start at Citi Field.
Results can vary, as we know, but the spin rates don’t lie. For those that don’t know, Hill is basically a two-pitch pitcher. He throws a four-seam fastball 46% of the time and a curveball just under 39% of the time.
Peep the spin rate data on Hill’s fastball:
Now check out the curveball:
Not great. Not great at all. The numbers certainly reflect, especially the K and BB numbers, how the quality of Hill’s stuff has declined. Sure, in a place like Citi Field, he could overcome it with a larger margin for error. The Mets are also a top-notch defensive team. But Hill doesn’t look to be nearly as effective as he was.
A guy that has been effective most of the season is Wade Miley. The 34-year-old is having a career year for the Reds this season with a 2.86 ERA and a 3.48 FIP. Miley allowed eight runs coming off of his no-hitter with a start in Colorado. That one start makes up 23.5% of the runs he has allowed this season. Miley has not had any notable decrease in his results since the foreign substance crackdown.
There is a lot to like in this profile. Miley has a GB% of 50.5% and we know how hard it is to manufacture runs the hard way. He has allowed just eight home runs this season with a 9.3% HR/FB%. His Hard Hit% against is just 34.2% and his Barrel% is just 6.1%. Miley is having a strong year.
Perception and reality about the Mets really don’t seem to be the same. The Reds basically have an identical record to the Mets with one more win and one more loss, but you don’t see them getting the same level of respect. The Mets just have bigger, flashier names.
I think there’s some value on the Reds today. They’ve retooled their bullpen and this Mets bullpen has been tasked with throwing a lot of innings with so many starters sidelined. Cincinnati has the better offense and the better starter on the bump tonight.
I’ll take another underdog shot with the Redlegs today.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds
Other games: Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays; Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers