The Baltimore Orioles and Detroit Tigers will square off once again on Saturday night after a 4-3 decision in favor of the O’s on Friday. Tonight’s game will feature John Means and Matt Manning.
Before I dig into this handicap, I need to mention this line. There was a time in the month of May when we probably would have seen Means in the -130 or so range in a game like this. Now it is a virtual pick ‘em. The Tigers have been such a solid, competitive team for nearly three months now. The Orioles still have their problems, but they had those when Means was pitching well. This line speaks to where John Means currently is.
I had some questions and reservations about Means with his return. One thing that I’m not sure a whole lot of people mentioned, and maybe I failed to do so as well, is that Means made his last start on June 5 prior to going on the IL. He only faced five batters. He hadn’t really experienced the post-foreign substance world.
In two starts back, Means has allowed nine runs on 12 hits in 11.2 innings of work. He’s allowed three home runs and has only struck out four of the 50 batters that he has faced. Means did face the Rays and Nationals, so one lineup that has been awful against lefties and another that has been good in that split.
He did make three minor league starts before getting activated from the IL. Those weren’t exactly inspiring. In his May 29 start, the fastball spin rate for Means was 2,500 rpm. In his first start back, it was 2260. He did bump that to 2363 in his second start, but it is clear that either the substances, the injury, or both, have affected him negatively.
As primarily a two-pitch pitcher with the fastball/changeup and an occasional curve, Means with decreased spin rates on his primary pitches has a much more limited arsenal than a lot of guys. I think that is something that the Tigers have the chance to exploit.
Matt Manning gets the call for the Tigers here. I realize that Manning has some ugly basic numbers with a 6.00 ERA and a 4.89 FIP, but sample size has definitely played a part. Manning allowed nine runs on nine hits to the Indians on June 28. Up until his most recent start against Minnesota, Manning had allowed two runs in each of his other five starts.
He did struggle with his command against the Twins last time out, as he posted his highest exit velo against of the season, but Manning is a guy running on the wrong side of luck a bit with a 59.9% LOB%.
The Orioles have been a potent lineup against lefties most of the season, but rank 30th in wOBA against righties at .293. They have the lowest OBP in the league and simply have not made much quality contact in that split.
The Tigers actually make decent contact against lefties. A high K% at 26.2% has been the issue, but Means doesn’t look like a guy capable of racking up strikeouts right now. He’s either still not right with the injury or the substance crackdown has made his stuff less effective.
All in all, I think it’s good enough to take a look at the Tigers today. Means just doesn’t seem right and Manning is better than the basic stats would suggest, at least in my opinion.
Pick: Detroit Tigers
Other games: Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets; Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays