A 6-run lead wasn’t safe last night, as the Tigers’ bullpen let us down and sent us to another 0-2 night, as the crappy season continues. Have done this for too long to get too concerned, but no doubt need a decent little run here soon if I’m going to squeeze out a small profit like the last few seasons. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Atlanta at Philadelphia: Aaron Nola and the Phillies are -172 over Toussaint and the Braves and I made Atlanta -114, so will take a shot on the Braves +157 in this one. Nola can be either very good or very bad, as the Phillies are 9-10 in the games he starts this season and 5-3 at home. The Phillies have allowed two runs or less in four of his home starts and 9 runs or more in three of them. The Phillies allowed 5 runs in his other start at home. Toussaint was solid in his season debut after being pretty awful last year, but young pitchers can gain some confidence with a good outing and he has the tools, but needs to put it together. Think the Braves are worth a shot at pretty generous odds.
New York Yankees at Boston: Martin Perez and the Red Sox are -140 over Domingo German and the Yanks, and I have New York -130, so will take the Yankees +130. Have never been much of a Martin Perez fan, even though Boston is 11-8 in his starts this season. Boston is 6-5 in his home starts, but allow 5.82 runs per game. They’ve allowed three runs or less in four of his 11 home starts, but allowed 5 or more runs in the other seven. German has pitched a little better on the road, although his last road start was a 5-3 loss to Perez and the Sox a month ago on June 25. The Yankees were -120 in that game and think this line is a little too much out of kilter, so will play the Yanks.
Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee: Brandon Woodruff and the Brewers are -140 over Lance Lynn and the White Sox in a game I have the Brewers -125, so not a whole lot of value in this one. The Brewers have won the last four games between these two and are going for the sweep today.
Record: 78-110 (-16.1)
Ugly day yesterday, headlined by the Giants, who were guilty of the pet peeve I mentioned a few days ago and that’s to have a reliever come in and walk batters, which happened in the seventh when the Pirates broke the game open and three walks, one hit and an error. On to Saturday – and lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Detroit at Kansas City: Hernandez and the Royals are -130 over Casey Mize and the Tigers, while I have Detroit –148, so will take the Tigers +120 in this one. Mize has pitched well this season but is seeing his innings trimmed, not going more than four innings in his last three starts. Was a little puzzling to see him get lifted after four scoreless innings last start, as he allowed just one hit and no walks over that span. Hernandez wasn’t bad in his first start of the season, allowing two runs in four innings, but the Tigers are playing better of the two right now and have to give them a bit of a pitching edge here.
Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee: Corbin Burnes and the Brewers are -125 over Carlos Rodon and the Sox and I have Chicago -183 here, so will take the Sox +115. The Brewers are only averaging 2.91 runs at home against left-handed starters and now face Rodon, who is allowing an average of 2.12 runs in his road starts. The Brewers allow 3.22 runs when Burnes starts at home, while Chicago is averaging 4.64 runs against right-hander on the road.
San Diego at Miami: There’s no line on this one, as the Marlins haven’t named a starting pitcher yet, although they fall into the 4-run system, that has seen us lose the two games we played and win the one we pointed out but didn’t play. The win was a +210 winner on Cleveland, so even with its 1-2 record since we’ve followed along.
Toronto at New York Mets: Interesting game here, as Ryu and the Blue Jays are -115 over Taijuan Walker and the Mets. New York is undefeated in Walker’s eight home starts this season and allow 1.88 runs when he starts in front of the home fans, but the Jays only allow 2.6 runs with Ryu on the road. With New York only scoring 2.27 runs per game at home against southpaws, the line is pretty much where it should be.
Record: 78-108 (-14.1)
An 0-2 night after the debacle in Cleveland, which is how it’s pretty much gone this year. Nothing to do but go forward, but somewhat of an ugly slate today, with quite a few big favorites and most of them you really can’t argue with. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Pittsburgh at San Francisco: Johnny Cueto and the Giants are -180 over Chad Kuhl and the Pirates, a number which is a bit low due to the letdown potential for the Giants, but I made San Francisco -305 in this one. The Giants have significant edges in hitting and pitching in this one. The Giants are 22-8 against right-handers at home and 20-4 when a home favorite. The Pirates are 12-24 on the road against right-handed pitchers and they’ve been an underdog every time. Will take the Giants -180 in this one and also take San Francisco -1.5 runs (+105).
LA Angels at Minnesota Twins: Alex Cobb and the Angels are -121 against JA Happ and the Twins and Minnesota would probably like nothing more than to get this season over with. The Twins are 17-14 at home against right-handed starters, which is one of the few bright spots for Minnesota this season. The Angels have struggled a bit against left-handed pitchers on the road this season, averaging just 3.53 runs, so I have Minnesota -163 and will take the Twins +110 in this one.
San Diego at Miami: Joe Musgrove and the Padres are -153 over Zach Thompson and the Marlins, while I made the Padres -104, but will go ahead and take the Marlins +143 as they fall into the 4 runs or less for five straight games system. Not real thrilled with the price, as I believe I’ve lost something like eight or night straight games when taking +143 with the dog.
Arizona at Cubs: Zach Davies and the Cubs are -140 over Zac Gallen and the Diamondbacks and I made Chicago -121, although it’s pretty much the Cubs or nobody in this one. Arizona is 8-27 on the road against right-handers, scoring 3.91 runs per game, making them nearly impossible to take here. The Cubs aren’t a whole lot better, scoring 4.06 runs per game against right-handed starters at home. Arizona is 2-3 when Gallen starts on the road, while the Cubbies are 6-4 with Davies at home. I was going to pass this one, but will go ahead and take a shot on the Cubs and lay the -140.
Slightly smaller slate of games for Thursday and we’ll have a few underdogs, which I prefer over favorites, although will simply be playing all games with the bigger differences between my line and the odds, regardless of if they’re favorites. Coming off a split last night, although a nice winner on the 4-runs or less system for anybody brave enough to play it. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Oakland at Seattle: Sean Manaea and the A’s are -140 against the Mariners and Chris Flexen, while I made Seattle -139, so will take the Mariners +130 in this one. Manaea has been solid on the road, with the A’s going 3-5, but just allowing 3.17 runs per game. Manaea’s biggest problem is run support on the road, as Oakland has jut managed to score 3.0 runs per game and things shouldn’t be too easy today against Flexen, who has been brilliant at home. Seattle has gone 8-2 and allows 1.6 runs per game. His worst home outing of the year did come against Manaea and the A’s, as he was the losing pitcher in a 6-0 defeat. But his home numbers are too good to pass up and think he’ll rebound with a better start in this one.
Tampa Bay at Cleveland: Luis Patino and the Rays are -140 over the Tribe with Cal Quantrill and I have Cleveland -150, so will take the Indians +130 in this one. Cleveland has gone 18-8 against right-handed starters at home, where they score 4.54 runs per game, while the Rays are 14-13 but score 5.81 runs per game on the road against right-handed hitters, although they’ve cooled off a little bit, going 4-8 and scoring 4.92 runs on the road against right-handed starters since June 1. Patino was forced to bit the bullet a little bit his last start, allowing 7 runs in 5 2/3 innings in an 11-1 setback at the hands of Toronto, but really hasn’t fared that well as a starter this season. The Rays are 1-3 when he starts. Quantrill has some ugly numbers for the season, although his most recent starts are looking better, with Cleveland going 4-5 when he starts. He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in his last three starts, going between 5 and 6 innings each time. Both teams were in action yesterday, with Cleveland playing in Houston and the Rays at home, so a bit of travel for both squads.
Record: 76-103 (-10.4)
Was on the wrong side of both games Tuesday, getting more shoddy relief pitching, which is quickly becoming my pet peeve. Both the Twins and the Giants bring in a guy with a one-run lead, who turns around and walks the first two hitters he faces and naturally, they both lose. But those tend to happen with underdogs more often than favorites, although bad relief pitching is one reason teams are underdogs, although the starting pitcher accounts for a lot more than the bullpen. Anyway, on to today and baseball will be the sole focus for a bit now with the NBA finished and the WNBA on a hiatus. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis: Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals are -121 over Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs and I made St. Louis -175, so will take the Cardinals and lay the odds in this one. The Cardinals get a slight scoring advantage in this one, scoring 3.89 runs against right-handed starters at home, while the Cubbies score 3.65 runs against RHP on the road. The bigger difference is in the pitchers, where the Cubs are allowing 4.22 runs per game when Hendricks starts on the road and the Cards allow 2.91 runs with Wainwright at home. Wainwright has been hurt by poor run support, as the Cards score the same 2.91 runs for Wainwright as they allow.
Minnesota at Chicago White Sox: Dylan Cease and the Sox are -140 over Michael Pineda and the Twins and I have Chicago -210, so will take the Sox -140 in this spot. The Sox are 35-15 at home this season, going 24-11 against RHP and 11-4 against southpaws, scoring pretty close to 5.0 runs against each. Cease has been much better at home this year, with the Sox going 7-2 and allowing 3.11 runs per game. Pineda hasn’t been himself this year, with the Twins going 4-8 in his starts and allowing more than 5.0 runs per game.
Cleveland at Houston: Lance McCullers and the Astros are now -240 over Eli Morgan and the Indians, while I made it this one -301 for Houston, who has big advantages in both pitching and hitting. The Indians do fall into the 4 runs or less five straight games system, which has gone 48-57 this season after last night’s loss with the Twins, which we were on. As the average take price is +144 the system is showing an ROI of 8.5%, but will sit this one out.
Record: 75-102 (-10.00)
Back to a full slate of MLB games for Tuesday and it’s not really a great slate from a betting perspective, although that’s really just my opinion on the card. There are probably others who love it. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
LA Angels at Oakland: The A’s and James Kaprielian are -153 over Suarez and the Angels, while I made the Angels -125, so will take a stab on Los Angeles +143 in this one. Suarez has been solid for the Angels this year, both starting and coming out of the bullpen. Granted he has only made two starts this season, lasting a total of eight innings. His five innings last start matches his season-high in relief. The key for Suarez is throwing strikes, as he walks too many batters, especially when you consider he doesn’t fan that many. Kaprielian has been tough at home this year, with the A’s going 2-2 and allowing 2.75 runs per game. Oakland does labor against left-handed pitchers a bit a home, going 10-9 and scoring 3.68 runs per game. It’s been a different story on the road, as the A’s are 13-4 and score 5.76 runs. Oakland gets a slight edge in pitching, but the Angels are better against right-handed starters than the A’s are against southpaws.
Minnesota at Chicago White Sox: The White Sox and Dallas Keuchel are -135 over Bailey Ober and the Twins and it’s hard to argue that the price shouldn’t be higher, but the Twins fall into a decent situational spot involving teams who have scored 4 runs or less for five straight games and are underdogs to a better team, so will take a shot on the Twins +125 here, even though the line seems a bit out of whack, with the Sox leading the division and the Twins stinking it up. Minnesota is 6-10 on the road against left-handed pitchers, averaging 4.38 runs per game, while Chicago has gone 23-11 at home against right-handed starters and scores 4.82 runs per game. Both pitchers are struggling a bit right now, with Ober’s 6.95 ERA over his last three starts a little better than the 7.24 of Keuchel. Ober is 2-1 against the White Sox this year and threw five scoreless innings against them two weeks ago after getting hit pretty hard against them in his previous start.
Record: 75-100 (-8.00)
A split in our two games on Sunday and now the usual Monday schedule, which has a smaller number of games. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Texas at Detroit: Kyle Gibson and the Rangers are -105 over Casey Mize and the Detroit Tigers, while I made Detroit -132, so will take the Tigers -105 in this one, which moved from Texas -111 when I first started writing this article. The first thing that jumps out at you here is the dismal 5-23 record of Texas when facing a right-handed pitcher on the road. Texas scores 4.04 runs, which is just .44 fewer runs than the league average of 4.48 runs per game. Texas has scored 3.0 runs or less in 13 of those 27 games. As bad as the Tigers are, they’ve gone 15-17 at home against right-handed starters, so they don’t fare too badly. Gibson has pitched well on the road, but the Rangers are just 2-6 when he starts, while the Tigers have gone 4-3 with Mize on the mound at home.
LA Angels at Oakland: Ohtani and the Angels are -111 over Cole Irvin and the A’s, while I made Oakland -171, so will take the A’s +101 in this spot. Yes, Ohtani has been impressive this season, but he’s fared better at home than on the road, where he has an ERA of over 6.00. Irvin hasn’t been all that impressive in his starts against the Angels this season, although it’s come down to a couple of mistakes each game and believe he can keep the Angels in check a little bit.
Pittsburgh at Arizona: Caleb Smith and the Diamondbacks have dropped all the way down to Arizona -111 against Chase De Jong and the Pirates, while I have Arizona -210, but no real interest in laying odds with the Diamondbacks, who are 7-7 as a favorite this year and just 1-8 when Smith starts. He was roughed up by the Dodgers pretty good last start, but prior to that hadn’t pitched as badly as his record indicated, losing four games in which the Diamondbacks allowed 3 or fewer runs. The Pirates are 3-5 when De Jong starts and the Pirates are just 3-8 on the road against left-handed pitchers, where they average just 2.36 runs per game despite not really facing a tough slate of pitchers. The Pirates have scored 1 run or less in six of those 11 games.
Record: 73-100 (-10.01)
The usual Sunday fare of day games, along with the Red Sox and the Yankees as the Sunday night game. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Seattle at Los Angeles Angels: Patrick Sandoval and the Los Angeles are -125 against Logan Gilbert and the Seattle Mariners, while I made Seattle -185, so will come back and take the Mariners +115 in this one. Gilbert has been solid for the Mariners all season, with Seattle going 8-2 in his starts. Seattle dropped his first two starts and have won the last eight, including one against Sandoval and the Angels. Seattle is 4-0 in his road starts, while the Angels have gone 5-4 in Sandoval’s starts this season. Both pitchers are doing well right now, so think the value is with the underdog.
Houston at Chicago White Sox: Two solid left-handers face off against teams that hit southpaws pretty well, as the White Sox and Carlos Rodon are -125 over Framber Valdez and the Astros. I have Houston -165, so will take the Astros +115 in this one. The Sox are 18-8 against left-handed pitchers this season, but have just 5-5 since June 1 and are averaging 4.4 runs per game. The Astros are 8-4 against southpaws since June 1 and are averaging 5.5 runs per game. Neither pitcher comes into this one in top form, but trust the Astros’ hitters a little more than Chicago.
San Diego at Washington: Decent contest here, as this is one is -105 both ways between Joe Musgrove and Max Scherzer and I made the Padres -108, so no value either way. The Nats are just 4-4 in Scherzer’s home starts, as he’s had putrid run support, with Washington scoring 2.12 runs per game. Two of his four wins were 1-0 games and he’s also been on the losing end of a 1—0 game. The Padres are 4-3 when Musgrove starts on the road.
Milwaukee at Cincinnati: Corbin Burnes and the Brewers are -135 over Sonny Gray and the Reds, while I made the Brewers -127, so another game without any real value one way or the other. The Reds are 3-4 with Sonny Gray on the mound at home, with all three wins coming by a single run. The Brewers are 2-4 with Burnes on the hill when he starts on the road.
Record: 72-99 (-10.16)
A full slate of games for Saturday, with the majority of games being played at night. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Seattle at Los Angeles Angels: Alex Cobb and the Angels are now up to -130 over Yusei Kikuchi and the Mariners and I made Los Angeles -290, so will take the Angels -125 as a rare favorite for today’s play. The Angels are 15-14 against left-handed pitchers this season and score 5.62 runs, so it hasn’t been the offense, but a lack of pitching that has LA hovering around .500 against southpaws despite putting up plenty of runs. Fortunately, for the Angels Alex Cobb has been a better pitcher at home than he has been on the road, as the Angels have gone 5-1 when Cobb starts at home, allowing just 3.5 runs per game. One of those wins came against Kikuchi and the Mariners last month, when the Angels took a 12-5 decision. Cobb did give up a grand slam in the top of the fourth, but the Angels chipped away at the lead and tied it in the fifth, took the lead in the sixth and then tacked on five runs in the bottom of the eighth.
Cobb went seven innings and all five baserunners Seattle had against him came around to score, as he allowed just three hits, walked one and hit a batter. Kikuchi allowed four runs in four innings, with one of the runs being unearned, as the Angels had five different players who knocked in a pair of runs.
Cobb fanned six in the game, while Kikuchi struck out eight, but allowed six hits in those four innings, including a pair of solo home runs.
As good as the Angels have been against left-handed pitchers, they’ve been better at home, going 10-5 and scoring 7.4 runs per game. The Angels have scored 5 runs or more in 12 of those 15 games.
Kikuchi has been decent on the road, with Seattle going 5-4 and allowing 4.33 runs per game. The Mariners have allowed 5 runs or more in four of those nine road starts and Seattle is just 11-17 on the road against right-handed pitchers.
Seattle is 5-9 on the road after a road victory and 4-9 when they underdog, so a decent chance for the Angels to bounce back in this one.
Record: 71-99 (-11.16)
The second half of the MLB season resumes tonight with a full slate of games and to say we have some work to do would be an understatement, as our brutal week has us fighting an uphill battle. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Miami at Philadelphia: Game 1 of the doubleheader has Sandy Alcantara and Mike Moore as the listed pitchers and the Marlins are -121. The first thing that stands out in this one is the 2-10 of the Marlins on the road against left-handed pitchers, where they average 3.25 runs per game. Moore hasn’t been anything special this season and has some ugly numbers, although he’s thrown a little better since returning. The Phillies average 4.71 runs at home against right-handed starters, so I have the Phillies -125 and will go ahead and grab the home dog at +110 in what is the first doubleheader game we’ve played all season.
Seattle at LA Angels: Andrew Heaney and the Angels just climbed to -160 over Chris Flexen and the Mariners, while I have this one LA -152, so no play here. I’m a huge Chris Flexen fan and we had Seattle in his last start against these same Angels, but he’s been a completely different pitcher on the road than he has been at home this season. Away from home, Seattle is allowing 7.17 runs when he starts, although they’ve still managed to go 4-2 in those games, having 8-6 and 9-6 victories. His numbers are a little distorted due to a 16-1 loss at San Diego, but even if you completely discarded that one, Seattle is allowing 5.4 runs when he starts on the road. But have no desire to back the Mariners in this one.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Charlie Morton gets his first shot at his former team in this one, as Atlanta is -125 over the Rays and Michael Wacha. Trade rumors are surrounding Morton, with the Dodgers one of the teams interested in him, so it’s hard to predict how that will affect his performance. Both starters are coming off solid outings, so this is a tough one to make a play on.
Cubs at Arizona: Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs are -145 over Madison Bumgarner and the Diamondbacks and I made Chicago -106, so perhaps a little value on the home dog. The Cubs are just 4-8 on the road against southpaws, averaging just 3.67 runs per game.
Record: 70-99 (-12.26)
The final day before the MLB All-Star break, as sports bettors are facing a day without action tomorrow, as the WNBA also wraps-up the first half of its season and now has the Olympic break. The break will give me a little time to play around with a few things and work on some better offensive numbers, but making an adjustments for medians, so hopefully can get things turned around when the teams return to the diamond. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
St. Louis at Chicago Cubs: Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals are -111 over Trevor Williams and the Cubs and I have Chicago -220, so will take the Cubs +101 for the lone play of the day, as it’s always a bit tricky to play the day before a break, as some players are worried more about making their flight back home or to a vacation destination than they are winning today’s game. Wainwright hasn’t really slowed down with age, but he has slowed down when he pitches away from St. Louis. The Cardinals are 3-4 when he starts on the road and allow 5.71 runs per game. At home, St. Louis allows an average of 2.5 runs per game and are 6-4. St. Louis is 16-22 on the road against right-handed starters and score 4.26 runs per game. St. Louis is 3-5 after a 6-run or greater victory, scoring jut 2.25 runs per game. Overall, the Cardinals are 22-21 on the season after a win and 8-10 on the road after an away victory.
The Cubs are 19-14 at home against right-handed starters and have scored 4.06 runs per game, so a slight edge to the Cardinals in offense. Chicago is 9-4 at home after a home loss and 4-2 after a five-run loss or greater at home. Trevor Williams is one of those who may have pitched a little better than his numbers, as he’s had a couple of really rough outings, but for the most part, has kept Chicago in the game, which is why the Cubs are 6-4 in the 10 games he’s started this season. At home, Chicago is 5-0 with Williams on the mound, allowing 2.8 runs per games, so believe we have enough in our favor to take a stab on the Cubbies, who have been hit or miss lately, with 28 runs in their last five games, which includes being shutout twice and scoring all 28 runs in the other three games.
Record: 70-99 (-12.26)
The standard Saturday MLB late with a mixture of day games and night games, although a few more day games than we typically see today. Lines are from William Hill and lited pitchers must start.
Cincinnati at Milwaukee: Peralta and the Brewers are -210 over Vladimir Gutierrez and the Reds and I have Milwaukee -103, so going to take the Reds +190 as a value play, although as you can tell from the record, those types of wagers haven’t pair off too often so far this year. But the Reds are capable of putting up some big numbers, although with their bullpen, they’re also capable of allowing some big numbers, as well. The Reds are 4-4 when Gutierrez takes the mound and have allowed three runs or less in six of his eight starts. The Reds allowed 7 runs in each of the other two games, losing both 7-5. Overall, the Reds are allowing 3.38 runs with Vladimir on the mound. Cincinnati has done the majority of its offensive damage at home, but they are 23-21 on the road this season and 17-17 on the road against left-handed starters. The Brewers have gone 23-13 against right-handed starters and score 4.72 runs per game, although part of that is due to scoring 29 runs in two games against the Cubs. They’re a decent offensive team, but probably not quite as good as their numbers may suggest, as they scored 2 runs or less in 14 of those 36 home games against right-handed starts. Peralta has thrown a little better away from home, with the Brewers going 5-3 when he start at home and allowing 4.0 runs per game, while they’ve gone 6-2 when he starts on the road and allow 2.12 runs per game.
LA Angels at Seattle: Patrick Sandoval and the Angels are -115 over Chris Flexen and the Mariners and I have the Mariners -188, so will take Seattle +105 in this one. The Mariners are 11-4 when Flexen starts, allowing 3.93 runs per game, although at home Seattle is 7-2 with him on the mound and allow 1.78 runs per game. Seattle is 4-2 when he starts on the road, but are allowing 7.17 runs per game, with his two worst outings both coming away from home. The Angels are 5-3 with Sandoval on the mound, with one of those losses coming against the Mariners.
Record: 68-99 (-15.21)
Coming off a complete stinkfest last night, after seemingly getting things straightened out a little bit. Tough card today, with a few games still not seeing lines. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
LA Angels at Seattle Mariners: Alex Cobb and the Angels are -125 over Marco Gonzales and the Mariners, while I made Seattle -140, so will take the Mariners for the lone play of the day. The Angels have given Cobb plenty of run support this season, as they’ve gone 9-3 with him on the mound, while allowing 4.58 run per game, which is just a little bit worse than the league average of 4.47 runs per game. In those games the Angels have scored 6.08 runs per game and won 8-7 and 12-5, games that you don’t expect to win when allowing that number of runs. On the road, the Angels have gone 4-2 and allowed 5.67 runs per game. The Angels are 14-13 against left-handed starters this season and have scored 5.67 runs per game, but all three of their double-digit run games have come at home. On the road, the Angels are 4-8 and have averaged just 3.5 runs per game, scoring 4 runs in their last five away games against a left-handed starter.
The Mariners have gone 17-13 at home against a right-handed start, averaging 3.83 runs per game. Seattle is 11-8 this season as a home underdog against right-handed starters. Gonzales hasn’t quite been up to his numbers last year, with Seattle going 4-6 in his 10 starts, allowing 5.1 runs per game compared to going 7-4 last year and allowing 4.09 runs per game, but at home they’ve gone 3-3 in his starts, allowing 5.33 runs per start, as he’s had a couple rough outings and a few good ones. Think Seattle is worth a stab as a small dog in this one.
Arizona at Los Angeles Dodgers: David Price moves back into the starting rotation for the Dodgers here and LA is massive -260 favorite over Taylor Widener and the Diamondbacks. Hard to argue with that price, as I have the Dodgers -237 here, with David Price looking good in his limited starts this season. Widener hasn’t been that bad on the road, where the Diamondbacks allow 4.25 runs per game. They allowed 11 runs in one game and just six in the other three games.
Record: 67-99 (-16.36)
A split on the diamond last night, as the Pittsburgh bullpen completely stunk it up after I said they had performed better than Atlanta’s, but after allowing 11 runs in 4 1/3 innings, the bullpen ERA shot up .88 runs, which is what you deserve when your guys can’t throw a strike when trying to protect a lead. Anyway, lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Colorado at Arizona: The Diamondbacks are down to -130 after being -135 earlier this morning with Faria and Chi Chi Gonzalez the scheduled starters. I have Arizona -260, so will take the Diamondbacks -130 in this one. Again, this is more of a bet against Colorado than one on Arizona, as the Rockies are averaging 2.67 runs against right-handed starters on the road and have gone 3-24 in that role, including losing the first two games of this series against Arizona. It’s not as though the Diamondbacks are great at home against right-handers, but they have averaged 4.61 runs per game, so nearly two more runs than the Rockies. Colorado is 1-6 when Gonzalez starts on the road.
Philadelphia at Cubs: Adbert Alzolay and the Cubs are -111 over Eflin and the Phillies, while I made Chicago -230, so will take the Cubs -111 in this one. Eflin has been decent at home, with the Phillies going 5-2 in his home starts and allowing 3.14 runs per game, but it’s been a different story on the road with Philadelphia going 1-8 and allowing more than 5.6 runs. The Cubs are 4-3 with Alzolay at home and allow 3.0 runs per game, so the numbers definitely like the Cubbies in this one.
Cincinnati at Milwaukee: Adrian Houser and the Brewers are -111 over the Reds and Tyler Mahle, while I made the Reds -180, so will take Cincinnati +101 in this spot. The Reds are 12-5 with Mahle on the mound and allow 5.0 runs per game, but they’ve gone 8-2 when he starts on the road and allow 2.9 runs per game. One reason his home numbers are so bad is he was the starting pitcher in the 19-4 loss to the Giants. The Brewers are 4-3 with Houser at home and allow 5.0 runs per game. The Brewers do get a scoring advantage, but the difference in starting pitchers is more pronounced, so will take the dog.
Record: 67-96 (-12.92)
A split on the diamond yesterday, pulling out one in Arizona and then getting blasted in the Yankees’ game. Good-sized slate of games today with a few games still without lines. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Atlanta at Pittsburgh: Drew Smyly and the Braves are -135 over Wil Crowe and the Pirates, while I have Pittsburgh -163, so will go ahead and take the Pirates +125. The Braves are 32-35 against right-handed starters, averaging 4.24 runs, which is a little bit less than the league average of 4.46 runs per game. Away from home the Braves are 15-20 and score 3.66 runs per contest. Atlanta has gone 7-7 with Smyly on the mound, allowing 4.93 runs per game, although that number has dropped after a few decent starts. On the road, the Braves have gone 5-3, while allowing 5.5 runs per game. Crowe has some ugly numbers on the season, although he has thrown a little better as of late. The Pirates allow 4.0 runs per game at home with him on the mound, but have gone just 1-4 in those games, scoring a total of four runs in the four losses, seeing DeSclafani and Burnes among others. Both pitchers are likely to go in the neighborhood of five innings and do like Pittsburgh’s bullpen a little more than Atlanta’s, so taking a stab on the Pirates.
Boston at Los Angeles Angels: Eduardo Rodriguez and the Red Sox are -130 over Andrew Heaney and the Angels, while I have LA -160, so will take the Angels +120 in this spot. The Sox are 7-4 when Rodriguez starts on the road, allowing 5.18 runs per game, but scoring 5.36. They’ve allowed 15 runs in his last three road starts, but have scored 22, so they managed to win all three, including a 10-8 victory over Atlanta. Boston is 7-5 against lefties on the road, scoring 4.83 runs per game. The Angels are 9-5 at home against left-handed pitchers and have scored 7.57 runs per game. Only three times in the 14 games were the Angels held to fewer than 5 runs and one of those was the 5-4 loss to the Sox on Monday. The Sox do get a bit of an edge in pitching, although the Angels’ offense makes the difference in this one, so will take the Angels as a home dog.
Record: 66-95 (-13.12)
Full slate of games and a couple on interesting ones, so will get right to it. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Colorado at Arizona: Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks are -130 over Jon Gray and the Rockies, while I have Arizona -270, so going to take the Diamondbacks in this one. I like Jon Gray, but for some reason he’s been a better pitcher in Coors Field than he is on the road. The Rockies have dropped all five of his road starts and allow 6.0 runs per game with him on the mound. At home, Colorado is 6-3 when he starts and they allow 4.11 runs per game. The Rockies have been a completely different team away from home this year, as on the road against right-handed starters the Rockies have gone a dismal 3-22 and they score 2.6 runs per game. Kelly has been a bit of a disappointment this season, as Arizona is 7-10 when he starts, but they are 4-4 with him on the mound at home and the Diamondbacks score 4.58 runs against right-handers at home, so will ride with the Diamondbacks in a somewhat rare favorite role, as it’s just the 12th game this season they’ve been favored in.
New York Yankees at Seattle: Jameson Taillon and the Yankees are -153 over Justus Sheffield and the Mariners, while I made Seattle -187, so will take Seattle +143 in this one. The Yankees are 13-14 against left-handed starters this season, scoring 3.85 runs per game and are 5-7 on the road against southpaws, scoring 3.5 runs per game. New York has gone 6-9 with Taillon on the mound, where they allow 5.33 runs per game. New York is 1-4 with Taillon on the road and they’ve allowed an average of 7 runs per game, winning the lone game where they didn’t allow 7 runs, as they beat Texas 7-4. The Mariners are 28-29 when facing a right-handed starter and score 4.05 runs per game, while at home they’ve gone 17-12 even though the scoring drops slightly to 3.93 runs per game. Seattle is 7-7 with Sheffield on the hill and they allow 4.59 runs per game, while they’ve gone 4-3 with Sheffield pitching at home and they allow 3.71 runs per game, so think Seattle is worth a shot, as the Yankees play their first game on this West Coast trip.
Record: 65-94 (-13.12)
Slightly smaller slate of games for Monday, as we finally broke our losing skid on Sunday. Strange day today, with a few of the lines still to be released, and most of the ones that have been released are fairly close to my numbers. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Walker Buehler and the Dodgers are -153 over Trevor Rogers and the Marlins, while I have the Fish -145, so will take Miami +143 in this one. The Dodgers are 14-8 against left-handed starters and score 3.73 runs per game. On the road, LA is 8-7 against southpaws and score 3.13 runs per game. The Dodgers have scored 4 or more runs four times in those 15 road games and have been held to 2 runs or fewer in eight games. LA is 11-5 with Buehler on the mound and 5-1 when he starts on the road, although they do allow 4.33 runs when he’s on the hill. The Marlins are 4-2 with Rogers on the mound at home and score 4.05 runs against right-handed starters in front of the home fans.
St. Louis at San Francisco: Kevin Gausman and the Giants are -213 over Kwang Hyun Kim and the Cardinals, while I made San Francisco -147, so a little value on the road dog. The Cardinals are 8-7 with Kim on the mound, but just 2-4 when he starts on the road.
Milwaukee at NY Mets: Brandon Woodruff and the Brewers are down to -130 over Tylor Megill and the Mets in a game that New York is seeing a lot of action, as the Brewers opened -170. Megill has just two starts, so hard to get much of a read on him. He did fan eight in five innings against the Braves last time out, but would feel a little more comfortable with the more proven pitcher if I had to play this one.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota: Dylan Cease and the White Sox are -111 over Bailey Ober and the Twins, while I have it at Chicago -104, so nothing happening in this one. Ober started off strong, but the Twins have allowed 23 runs in his last two starts. While not all his fault, he certainly played a hand in it. Cease has been better at home this season and the Sox allow 5.25 runs with him on the mound as the road team.
Record: 64-94 (-14.55)
The losing skid continued with a single loss on Saturday, as it’s now in mind-boggling territory, but you can’t go back and change what you’ve done, only move forward. As mentioned yesterday, I’d be looking to mix things up a bit and play the games with the bigger differences regardless if they were favorites or not, so will actually have a few favorites today. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
San Diego at Philadelphia: Blake Snell and the Padres have moved from -130 to -125 over Vince Velasquez and the Phillies, while I made the Padres -115, so this one is no play for me. Really wanted to take the Phillies, but won’t go against the numbers. Somehow, the Padres are 0-8 in Snell’s eight road starts and 6-1 when he starts at home.
St. Louis at Colorado: German Marquez and the Rockies are -153 over Carlos Martinez and the Cardinals, while I have the Rockies -243, so will take Colorado and lay the -153 here. The Rockies are 9-2 at home with Marquez this season, allowing 4.18 runs and haven’t allowed more than 3.0 in his last five home starts. The Cardinals are 2-6 with Martinez on the road.
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds: Wade Miley and the Reds are -125 over Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs, while I have Cincinnati -260, so will take Cincinnati -125 in this one. Hendricks has pitched better as of late, while Miley has been pretty steady the entire season. The Cubs are averaging 3.82 runs per game on the road against left-handed starters, going 4-7, while the Reds are scoring 5.74 runs per game at home against right-handers.
Texas at Seattle: Chris Flexen and the Mariners are down to -135 over Mike Foltynewicz and the Rangers after being -145 earlier this morning. After a decent start to the year, Foltynewicz faded a bit, but bounced back with a pair of wins over the A’s. Texas is 6-10 when he starts and 2-4 when he starts on the road. Texas has allowed 4 runs or less in four of those six starts, but 10 runs or more in the other two. Flexen has pitched well and the Mariners are 10-4 when he starts, allowing 4.14 runs per game. At home, he’s been much better, with Seattle going 6-2 and allowing 1.88 runs per game compared to allowing 7.17 runs away from home. I have Seattle -195 and lean that way, but not sure if I’ll pull the trigger or not.
Record: 62-94 (-16.55)
To say this has been a brutal week would be an understatement, as I’ve pulled off what seems impossible, with the odds of losing the last 14 games at 1,809-to-1, based on the underdog prices that were taken. I thought winning the 10 WNBA games in a row, which is a 1,023-to-1 shot, was going to be tough to beat, but I’ve managed to do that with a unprecedented stink fest. In basketball when things are going bad, I’ll frequently change it up – if I’ve been betting full games, I’ll play first halves and vice-versa, so for the past few days was going to play the largest differences in my projected lines and the odds, regardless of if they were favorites or not, but the majority of games are close to the odds, so that hasn’t really worked out, so will just keep plugging along. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers mut start.
Tampa Bay at Toronto: Ross Stripling and the Jays are -111 over Shane McClanahan and the Rays and I made Tampa Bay -127, so will take the Rays +101 in this one, as Tampa looks to end what has turned into a four-game slide. McClanahan has slowly been stretching out his starts, having gone six innings in each of his last two starts. Stripling has been decent his last few starts, although they were against the Orioles and the Marlins, a pair of teams not noted for their offense.
St. Louis at Colorado: Kyle Freeland and the Rockies are -115 over Wade LeBlanc and the Cardinals, while I made Colorado -140 on this one. Freeland isn’t what he was in 2019, although he shows glimpses of getting back to his former self, while LeBlanc is making just his third start of the season. He wasn’t bad last time out, but hasn’t gone five innings in any start yet. The Rockies are still a decent home team, going 29-17 at Coors Field, but they are just 7-7 at home after a home loss, while the Cardinals are 18-24 on the road and 7-8 on the road after a road win, so nothing really worthwhile here.
Texas at Seattle: Marco Gonzales and the Mariners are -140 over Lyles and the Rangers, while I have Seattle -103. Gonzales is a bit better than he’s looked this season, as he’s battled a few different issues. Seattle with a huge bullpen edge, which could be big in a game where the starters have only went seven innings once.
Record: 62-93 (-15.55)
Can’t be too upset over the loss with the Pirates last night, as you don’t really expect to win +215 underdogs, even though it extended the losing skid. Crowe did his job, holding Milwaukee to a pair of runs, but some shoddy relief pitching turned a 2-1 game after five innings into a 7-2 final. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh: Adrian Houser and the Brewers are -121 over JT Brubaker and the Pirates in this one, while I made Pittsburgh -115, so will come back with the Pirates +110 in this one. Brubaker has pitched well this season for Pittsburgh and has been better at home. This is a tale of two different pitchers having different luck lately, as the Brewers are 3-0 in Houser’s last three starts, where he has an ERA of 5.97, while the Pirates have dropped Brubaker’s last three starts despite an ERA on 3.57 over that span. Brubaker defeated Houser 6-1 back in April and think he’s worth a shot here at plus money.
Chicago White Sox at Detroit: Lance Lynn and the White Sox are -145 over Casey Mize and the Tigers and I have it Chicago -135, but will take the Tigers +135 in this one, as I like Mize and think Lynn is regressing a bit, as he’s been getting hit a little lately. He only went three innings in his last start, which is a bit troubling since he three hitless innings after allowing six runs in four innings in his previous start. The Sox are 1-3 on the road with Lynn starting, while Detroit has gone 4-2 with Mize on the mound at home. After a bit of a rough start, Mize hasn’t allowed more than three runs in his last 11 starts and the Tigers have allowed 4 or more runs for the game twice in that span.
New York Mets at New York Yankees: Good one tonight, where the Yankees and Jordan Montgomery are -135 and I have the Yankees -105. The Mets have not hit left-handers well this season, averaging just 2.76 runs and are 8-13. The Mets do get a bit of an edge in pitching, allowing just 2.14 runs with Walker on the hill, while the Yanks are allowing 3.47 runs with Montgomery on the hill. The Mets are 11-3 with Walker on the mound, although all three losses have been on the road and they’re 4-3 in the away games Walker starts. The Yanks are 11-4 with Montgomery and 6-1 when he starts at home.
Record: 62-91 (-13.44)
I continue to stink it up in baseball right now, as the losing skid continued on Wednesday. I always say your losing streaks will be longer and you’ll have more of them when you bet all underdogs, but this has gotten pathetic. Anyway, lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh: Corbin Burnes and the Brewers are -245 over Wil Crowe and the Pirates, while I have this one Brewers-158, so taking the Pirates +215 as a price play. The Brewers are just 7-8 when Burnes starts this year and are coming off a 15-7 thumping of the Cubs on Wednesday. Teams who scored 15 or more runs in their last game are just 5-10 this season and 1-4 when a road favorite. Crowe isn’t anything to get excited about, although he has managed to keep his team in games more often than not, with the Pirates allowing 5 or more runs in just two of his 10 starts. The Brewers have allowed 5 or more runs in four of Burnes’ 15 starts for comparison. Taking a +215 underdog when you’re in the midst of a brutal losing streak probably isn’t the greatest idea, since they’ll lose far more often than they win, but there’s enough value here to go ahead and pull the trigger on the home underdog.
Miami at Philadelphia: Zach Eflin and the Phillies are -125 over Pablo Lopez and the Marlins, while I have Miami -125, so will take Miami +115 in this one. Lopez is a solid starter, with the Marlins 8-8 when he starts and allow 3.81 runs per start. The Phillies are 5-10 with Eflin on the mound and allow 4.8 runs per game. Eflin has pitched better at home this season, but is coming off a strong start against the Mets where he allowed one run in six innings. He’s had three previous starts where he’s allowed one run or less and he’s allowed 12 runs in 17 2/3 innings in those starts, so putting together solid starts has been a bit of a problem. Lopez has really only had three bad starts out of 16, allowing six runs twice and four in three innings against the Braves. While Miami’s bullpen isn’t anything to get too excited about, they have performed better than Philadelphia’s and Lopez should be able to eat enough innings to keep them from becoming too much of a factor. Eflin has gone 6 innings or less in his last eight starts and three innings of the Phillies’ pen is a bit scary.
Record: 62-90 (-12.55)