Few people will be as happy as me to see this MLB season come to an end. Anytime I take a step forward, it’s been followed by a couple of steps backward, with the Dodgers blowing their two-run lead last night. A few days after saying some good things about Dave Roberts, he didn’t get the job done Sunday, as bringing Urias in wasn’t the greatest call. You have the lead, just let your relief staff do their thing and don’t mess with your starters, but what’s been done is done. Now, it’s to Boston where the Red Sox and Eduardo Rodriguez are -111 over Jose Urquidy and the Astros. The total is 9-over (-120).
I’ve completely botched things the past three days, skipping totals when I shouldn’t and playing them when I shouldn’t, especially in this series. So will try to put away the thinking and just follow the numbers in this one.
Jose Urquidy doesn’t get the attention some of the other Houston pitchers get, but he was solid on the road this season. The Astros were 7-3 when he started on the road and allowed 3.5 runs per game. Houston won his last five road starts.
Rodriguez simply wasn’t that impressive this season, but the Red Sox did go 20-13 with him on the mound and 8-6 at home despite allowing 5.71 runs per game. They were blown out a few times and managed to win a couple of close ones.
The Astros cooled off against left-handers a little bit down the stretch, as Houston scored 4.77 runs per game on the road against southpaws from July 1 onward, which is down from their season total of 5.69 runs against left-handers on the road. The Astros did lose a few close ones and their overall record of 17-15 isn’t what you would expect considering their run differential, as they should have been at least 20-12, considering they scored 1.57 runs more per game.
The Red Sox were 32-19 at home against right-handed pitchers this season, scoring an average of 6.02 runs per game, and from July 1 onward the Sox were 16-9 and scored 6.48 runs per game, with four games seeing Boston score 10 or more runs.
I have the Astros winning this one 6.22-4.70, so I have Houston -176 and a total of 11, so will take the Astros +101 for 2 units and the over 9 for 1.5 units.
Record: 154-198 (-18.59)
Split the two games on Saturday, but did lose the larger of the two, as the Astros couldn’t keep the ball in the park early. Houston scored some runs, but it was far too little, far too late to make it a game, as it was essentially over after the second inning.
One game today, with the Dodgers sending Max Scherzer to the mound to face off with Ian Anderson. The Dodgers are -177 and the total is 7.5-under.
As I mentioned yesterday, I liked the Dodgers to win the series, but wasn’t quite so sure about Game 1, as the team had a huge emotional win over the Giants on Thursday night, then had to travel cross-country for a game with the Braves. It wasn’t exactly the greatest of situations for Los Angeles. Today still isn’t great, but it’s certainly better than yesterday.
Lots of people are acting like this one is a gimme for the Dodgers, but Anderson was tough at home, with the Braves going 11-2 when he started in Atlanta. The Dodgers did win all six of Scherzer’s road starts since he joined the team, so both teams have to like their chances in this one.
Atlanta lost to Scherzer twice this season, with both games being decided by a run. Scherzer was solid in one game and not so much in the other, allowing four runs in six innings, with all four solo home runs. The Dodgers beat Anderson the only time they faced him this season, as he allowed 4 runs in 4 1/3 innings, even though he allowed just one hit. He did walk three and all four came in to score, as the Dodgers scored 8 runs in the top of the fifth inning at Atlanta and won 9-5. Strangely, the Dodgers only had four hits the entire game.
The odds did drop on the Dodgers following the Game 1 setback, which is what I was hoping for, so will take the Dodgers -140 at DraftKings to win the series against the Braves for 2.0 units, as well as 2 units on LA +175 to win the World Series.
The Dodgers were 36-22 after a loss this season and 17-11 as an away favorite after a loss. When LA was -160 or greater, they went 13-5 as an away favorite following a setback.
The Braves were 49-42 after a win, but just 6-18 as an underdog after a win and 2-4 as a home dog following a victory. Not real eager to lay -177 with the Dodgers and Scherzer, but the trends definitely point to LA so will take the Dodgers for 1 unit.
Record: 154-197 (-16.82)
The Red Sox couldn’t hang on to an early lead and dropped a 5-4 decision Friday, as we’re heading the wrong way once again after making a little bit of a move. Two games today and the Dodgers haven’t named their starter, so we’ll head over to FanDuel for our lines today, as Caesar’s still hasn’t posted a number on the Atlanta vs. LA game. There was talk that Max Scherzer could come back after pitching an inning on Thursday, but think the Dodgers would be smarter to let him rest and then have Buehler, Scherzer and Urias set to go. But Dave Roberts is a better judge of that than I am.
Boston at Houston: Luis Garcia and the Astros are -118 over Nathan Eovaldi and the Red Sox in a game where the public is backing the visiting team pretty well on the assumption that Boston won’t lose two in a row. The stats call for a different story, however, as I made the Astros -180. Houston was 35-18 at home against right-handers for the season and 25-11 from June 1 onward, scoring more than 5.4 runs per game. The Sox were 18-13 on the road against RHP from June 1 on and scored 4.55 runs per game. Garcia doesn’t get the recognition that some of the other Houston pitchers do, but the Astros were 8-6 when he started at home and allowed just 3.14 runs per game. He didn’t get much run support, as the Astros averaged almost 2.0 fewer runs, as they scored just 3.64 runs with him on the hill. The Sox were 7-6 with Eovaldi on the road, allowing 4.08 runs per game, but a lot of those wins came against the likes of Baltimore and Texas, as he was 1-3 against playoff teams, although he didn’t pitch that poorly. Will take the Astros -118 for 2.0 units here.
Los Angeles at Atlanta: The Dodgers are -130 without a starter named and the total on the game is 8-over (-118). The runs scored for the season are nearly identical for the two teams when you look at the Dodgers’ scoring on the road against LHP and the Braves’ scoring at home against RHP. The Dodgers did pick it up against southpaws the last few months of the season, but so did Max Fried, as the Braves won his last nine home games. Like the Dodgers to win the series, but think the Braves might take the opener, catching the Dodgers traveling across country and coming off an emotional win over their rivals to reach this stage. People are counting the Braves out and think they use that as a rallying cry in this one. Will take the Braves +112 for 1.5 units and look to take the Dodgers later in the series if the Braves can steal this one.
Record: 153-196 (-16.14)
Thursday night showed why Dave Roberts is a major league manager and we’re not, as his decision to start Corey Knebel instead of Julio Urias turned out to be the correct one, as the Giants’ only run of the game came the second time they had seen Urias. Using closer Kanley Jansen in the eighth and bringing in Max Scherzer to pitch the ninth also worked out for the Dodgers. The move to Knebel also knocked us off our wager last night, so now we move onto the American League Championship Series between the Boston Red Sox and the Houston Astros.
Framber Valdez and the Astros are -135 over Chris Sale and the Red Sox and the total has moved from 8 to 8.5-under (-115). Houston is -155 to win the series, while the Red Sox are +135.
Sale was roughed up by the Rays in his lone postseason start of the year and he hasn’t been all that impressive in the postseason, with the Red Sox going 3-2 in his lifetime playoff starts, with all five games going over the total. The Sox have scored 6.2 runs per game and allowed 5.8.
The Astros are 3-1 in the games Valdez has started in the playoffs, going 2-2 in totals.
Tonight’s game is pretty much right where it should be, as I made Houston -124. The Astros averaged 5.07 runs per game at home against southpaws, while going 8-6, and the Red Sox averaged 4.04 runs per game on the road against left-handers, going 9-15 in that span.
As bad as Sale was against Tampa Bay, it was at home, so his road numbers weren’t affected, and the Rays were facing him for the third time. Boston allowed 4.25 runs in Sale’s road starts this season.
Houston allowed 4.78 runs in the home starts of Valdez since July 1, and 23 runs in his last four home starts, so he hasn’t fared as well at home as he has on the road.
The key here is how Sale bounces back from the start against Tampa. The total on the game seems to indicate that oddsmakers are expecting at least one of the two pitchers to have a decent outing and will go ahead and take a shot on the Red Sox +125 in this one for 1 unit.
Record: 153-195 (-15.14)
Just a single Game 5 in the MLB playoffs, but it’s a good one, as the top two teams in baseball play to see who advances and who is done for the season. William Hill has the game at -105 both ways and the total on the game is 7-flat. Logan Webb starts for the Giants and Julio Urias gets the nod for the Dodgers.
The Giants were 13-0 when Webb started at home, allowing 2.38 runs per game and San Francisco was 10-0 since July 1 and allowed 2.30 runs per game.
Urias was close, with the Dodgers going 15-4 in his road starts, allowing 3.0 runs per game. LA was 9-2 with Urias on the mound away from home since July 1, allowing 2.09 runs per game.
The Giants weren’t quite as good against left-handed pitchers during the season, going 14-11 at home and averaging 4.0 runs per game. From July 1 onward, the Giants were 7-7 and scored 3.86 runs per game.
The Dodgers were 35-24 on the road against right-handed starters, scoring 5.44 runs per game, but the offense did cool off a little bit from July 1 onward, as the Dodgers scored 4.82 runs per game and were 21-13.
The Dodgers opened -115 and the Giants were -105 and the Dodgers have been getting 57% of the wagers, so the slightest bit of support for the Giants with the shift off the overnight line.
This is a tough game as there really isn’t a lot separating the two teams. The Dodgers do get the scoring edge, while the Giants get the slightest edge in pitching. Making it worse, is being a lifelong Dodgers fan, so naturally, you have an aversion to the Giants built right in there, as well.
It’s hard to discount the Giants’ record with Webb on the mound at home, and the Giants were 3-0 during the regular season with Webb starting against Urias, but things are a little different now and the pressure will be on both starters, who haven’t had a game of this magnitude.
This one is basically a coin-flip, but the Giants have gotten a little bit of sharp money, which has to be respected here. I have the Dodgers -133, so no real edge to speak of and will go ahead and snag the Giants -105 for .42 units to win .40.
Record: 153-195 (-15.14)
The Giants saved from us from an extremely ugly day, limiting the damage by cashing at +183. The only game with listed pitchers right now is the game that was rained out Monday, although the Astros will change to Lance McCullers. Lines are from DraftKings due to
Houston at White Sox: This one is -110 both ways and the total here is 8.5. I did have the Sox yesterday as a 1.5-unit play, but with the switch to McCullers, will downgrade to just a 1-unit play, as McCullers allows one run less on the road than Urquidy since the beginning of July and I now have the Sox -160. The rain out definitely helps the Astros in this one.
Milwaukee at Atlanta: The line here is Braves -135 and Brewers +115, with neither starter named. The Brewers completely botched yesterday’s game, removing Peralta after just 57 pitches and then seeing Houser give up three straight hits, the last being Pederson’s three-run homer. This came on the heels of the Brewers putting runners on second and third with no outs and leaving them stranded. So, the mindset of Milwaukee is a little bit of a question. The Brewers could go to Eric Lauer or bring Burnes back on short rest, having Woodruff on his normal rest if there is a game 5. The Brewers have only scored two runs the entire series, having been blanked twice in a row now, which doesn’t happen often in the postseason. The Brewers are the fourth team to be coming off back-to-back shutouts. Will take a stab on the Brewers +115 for .4 units due to the uncertainty of this one.
San Francisco at LA Dodgers: The Dodgers are -155 and the Giants are +135 and at least San Francisco has named DeSclafani as its starting pitcher. The Dodgers haven’t named one yet, but could be turning the ball over to Tony Gonsolin. The Dodgers were 9-4 when he started, although one of the losses was to the Giants. They could also look to David Price, who split his two starts against the Giants. DeSclafani allowed 4.43 runs on the road since the beginning of July 1, while Price allowed the same and Gonsolin was a bit better. The Dodgers did hit right-handers better than southpaws, so will go ahead and take a shot on LA -1 run at -115 for .4 units, not wanting to wager too much since right now we’re not even sure who will be on the mound.
Record: 152-193 (-14.03)
The last day of four games in the MLB playoffs, so we’ll get right to it after the Rays let us down Sunday. Boston had chances early to break it open and Tampa Bay had chances later on, but it was all for naught until Boston won it in the bottom of the 13th. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start, with the exception of the Tampa Bay game, where the Rays haven’t named a starting pitcher yet. It doesn’t matter a whole lot, as the Rays won’t likely use their starter more than an inning or two.
Milwaukee at Atlanta: The Braves and Ian Anderson are -111 over Freddy Peralta and the Brewers and I made Milwaukee -178 in this one, with the Brewers getting the scoring edge. The total is 8-under (-115). Milwaukee scored 6.15 runs on the road against right-handed starters since June 1, while the Braves scored 4.54 runs at home against RHP. The Brewers were 25-8, while Atlanta was 17-11. The Braves only allowed 2.0 runs per game in Anderson’s four home starts since July 1, while Milwaukee allowed 1.8 runs with Peralta on the mound away from home. Taking the Brewers +101 for 2 units in this one.
Houston at White Sox: Carlos Rodon and the White Sox are -125 over Jose Urquidy and the Astros, while I made Chicago -210 in this one, so will ride the Sox -125 in this spot for 1.5 units. The Astros were just 16-15 on the road against lefties for the year and 6-6 since July 1, averaging 4.33 runs per game. One of those losses came at Chicago, when Rodon allowed 1 hit over seven innings. He also allowed three hits over seven innings in a game at Houston earlier this year. Urquidy is a solid starter, but think Rodon is better and the Sox get the offensive nob against RHP.
Tampa Bay at Boston: There’s no line on this one at William Hill, although SugarHouse has it -108 both ways and a total of 9-over (-122). Boston is expected to start Eduardo Rodriguez, who only lasted 1 2/3 innings on Thursday. Boston was 2-3 against Tampa with Rodriguez on the mound this year. Will play the Rays for .54 units to win .5.
San Francisco at Dodgers: Max Scherzer and the Dodgers are -203 over Alex Wood and the Dodgers and the line is simply too high here. I have the Dodgers -123, which is probably a little closer to what it should be. Still, I have the Dodgers winning and they probably will, but the team with the best record shouldn’t be getting +183 against anybody. The Giants were 23-5 on the road against RHP from July 1 onward and San Francisco was 5-2 against LA this year as a dog of +150 or greater. Kills me to play the Giants against my Dodgers, but will take San Fran +183 for 1 unit.
Another day with just two baseball games, this time with the American League on the field. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Tampa Bay at Boston: Nathan Eovaldi and the Red Sox are -111 over Drew Rasmussen and the Rays and the total here is 8.5-over (-115). The Sox can put up the runs at home against right-handed pitchers, going 14-9 since July 1 and averaging 6.52 runs per game. Boston scored 7 or more runs 8 times and was held to 3 or less just four times. Boston was 7-2 in Eovaldi’s home starts since July 1, allowing 4.33 runs per game, but the Sox scored 8.11 runs with him on the mound, winning games by scores of 20-8, 8-6 and 8-5. The Rays can score a little bit on the road against right-handers, as they were 14-10 from July 1 onward, scoring 5.46 runs per game. The Rays were 6-0 with Rasmussen on the mound away from home, including a pair of wins over the Red Sox, although Tampa Bay won one of the two games 12-7. Yet, you really can’t fault Rasmussen for that, as he allowed just one run in five innings. The Rays were 2-1 when Rasmussen faced Boston, while the Sox were 3-1 when Eovaldi starter against Tampa and he had three strong outings and one poor start. I have Tampa Bay pretty decent favorites here, so will take the Rays +101 for 1.5 units, with Eovaldi’s success at home against the Rays what keeps this one from being a 2-unit play.
Houston at White Sox: Dylan Cease and the White Sox are now -121 over Luis Garcia and the Astros and the total here is 8.5-under (-115), which is a bit surprising, as both teams average more than 5.0 runs in today’s location. The Astros averaged 5.2 runs on the road against right-handed starters since July 1, while the Sox scored 5.61 runs at home against right-handers, going 18-10. Houston was 16-14, so didn’t always get great pitching. Houston allowed 10 or more runs four times. Cease wasn’t very good at home from July 1 onward. Chicago won 7 of his first 8 home starts, but were just 2-6 down the stretch, allowing at least 5 runs in the six losses and one run in each of the two wins. Garcia allowed an average of 4.25 runs when he started on the road from July 1 on, with one those an 11-8 setback at Seattle in his first road game. I made Houston -120 in this one. The total is tempting to take the over, but with the win blowing in from right field, could be a little more difficult for left-handed hitters to take one out of the park. Don’t like this game at all, but will take Houston +110 for .5 units to win .55.
Record: 151-189 (-11.32)
The Braves couldn’t quite get the job done for us yesterday, so we settle for a 2-3 day, dropping .45 units after winning our 2-unit play on the Astros over the total, but going 1-2 on the 1-unit plays and losing the 1.5-unit play on the Braves. Had their chances but didn’t come through when we needed and one bad pitch by Charlie Morton turned out to be the difference in the game.
Just two games on the slate for today, both in the National League and listed pitchers must go. Lines are from William Hill.
Atlanta at Milwaukee: Brandon Woodruff and the Brewers are -125 over Max Fried and the Braves and will come right back and take Atlanta +115 for 2-units in this one. I have the Braves as prohibitive favorites in this one, as the Braves averaged 5.23 runs on the road against right-handed pitchers since July 1. Woodruff tailed off a little bit at home as the season went on, with Milwaukee going 1-5 in his last six home starts, allowing 5.0 runs per game. He did have two bad games in that span, with the Brewers allowing 9 and 12 runs. If we use his median number of runs allowed of 3, it’s still more than Fried has allowed on the road since July 1, as Atlanta was 6-4 in his 10 starts, allowing 2.9 runs per game. He had one really bad outing, as Atlanta lost to the Pirates 11-1. Using his median runs would see Atlanta allowing 2.25 runs per game. With the Brewers averaging 3.64 runs at home against left-handed starters since July 1, the Braves get the edge there, as well.
LA Dodgers at San Francisco: Julio Urias and the Dodgers are -111 over Keven Gausman and the Giants and I made LA huge favorites in this one, closer to -250, so will take the Dodgers -111 for 2 units. The Giants averaged 4.0 runs at home against southpaws since July 1, while the Dodgers scored 4.7 runs on the road against RHP. LA was 8-2 in the last 10 road games Urias started, while the Giants were 3-6 in Gausman’s last nine home games, allowing 5.22 runs per game. His median runs allowed are 5.0, while the Dodgers allowed 2.1 runs in those 10 starts for Urias, while there really isn’t much difference in his median runs allowed, with a high of 5.0 and a low of 0. The Dodgers allowed 4 runs twice, with his other starts seeing LA allow 2 or fewer runs.
Record: 149-189 (-15.62)
A full day of MLB playoff action today, with games beginning at 2:07 p.m. EST and continuing until the Dodgers and Giants wrap things up this evening. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Chicago White Sox at Houston: Framber Valdez and the Astros just dropped to -115 over Lucas Giolito and the White Sox, while the total just moved from 8-under (-115) to 8-flat. I made the Sox -132 in this one, as the Astros get a bit of an edge in offense, while the Sox get a bit of a pitching edge. The Astros allowed 4.88 runs per game with Valdez on the mound since July 1, allowing 5 or more runs in 6 of those games. The Astros did go 5-3 in those games, winning 9-6, 8-7 and 10-5. The Astros should have a bit of success against Giolito, as well, as will play the over 8 for 2 units and put 1 unit on the Sox +105.
Atlanta at Milwaukee: Corbin Burnes and the Brewers are -153 over Charlie Morton and the Braves and I made this one Brewers -110, so will go ahead and take a shot on the Braves as a price play. This is the first time Burnes has pitched in the playoffs, so it’s impossible to predict if it will affect hime or not. The Braves get the offensive edge and have a decent shot, so will play Atlanta +143 for 1.5 units.
Boston at Tampa Bay: Shane Baz and the Rays just dropped to -130 over Chris Sale and the Red Sox and the total here is 7.5-under (-120). Baz only made three starts during the season, although it’s unlikely he’ll be asked to go more than three or four innings here. He did go 5 2/3 innings against the Marlins this year, but was also pulled after 2 2/3 innings against the Yankees his last start. Sale did pitch twice against Tampa Bay this season, with the teams splitting those games. I have the Rays -170 so will take a stab on the Rays -1 (+105) for 1 unit.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco: The Dodgers and Walker Buehler are -115 over Logan Webb and the Giants and I have San Francisco -153, so will take the Giants +105 for 1 unit. The Giants won all of Webb’s home starts this season, which makes it tough to go against them here. The Dodgers do get a slight edge in scoring, but the difference is the Dodgers allowed 3.75 runs per game in Buehler’s road starts since July 1, while San Francisco allowed 2.56 runs with Webb at home.
The Cardinals couldn’t quite get it done last night, but they had a shot all game and that’s really all you can ask for when taking a +200 underdog. The American League series begin today, with all eight teams in action on Friday. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Chicago White Sox at Houston: Lance McCullers and the Astros are -130 over Lance Lynn and the White Sox, while the total is 8-under (-120). The Astros are -130 to win the series, while the Sox are +110. The Sox weren’t all that impressive against right-handed starters on the road this season, going 29-32 for the season, scoring 4.23 runs per game, while is slightly below the league average. In a three-game series at Houston in June, scoring a total of five runs, as they were outscored 20-5 in those three games. Lynn was solid on the road, as the Sox allowed 3.45 runs per game, but still were just 5-6 with him on the road. Houston was 9-7 when McCullers started at home, allowing 3.56 runs per game. Against right-handed starters the Astros were 33-18, so will go ahead and take Houston -130 for 1 unit.
Boston at Tampa Bay: Shane McClanahan and the Rays are -145 over Eduardo Rodriguez and the Red Sox with a total of 8-under (-115). Tampa Bay is -190 to win the series, with Boston +160. The Red Sox didn’t score a whole lot against left-handed pitchers on the road, as Boston was 15-18 for the season, scoring 4.36 runs game. Boston was 6-10 against LHP since Aug. 1, scoring just 3.94 runs per game. The Rays scored 4.24 runs at home against southpaws for the season, while going 18-15, but did score 5.0 runs against LHP at home from Aug. 1 onward. Both pitchers were solid down the stretch, with the Red Sox allowing 4.06 runs with Rodriguez on the mound away from home. Boston allowed 2.25 runs per game over his last eight road starts. The Rays allowed 3.33 runs per game when McClanahan started at home for the season, a number that went down to 2.62 runs per game over his last eight home starts. Will go ahead and play the under 8 at -115 for 1.5 units and hold the more recent trends continue in this one.
Giancarlo Stanton’s “meaningless” ninth-inning home run last night sent us to a push on our total play, as I waited a bit too long and the number dropped from 8.5 to 8. Hopefully, a few who follow were able to get the 8.5, although my record this season doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence as it pertains to tagging along. Anyway, lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
St. Louis at Los Angeles Dodgers: Max Scherzer and the LA Dodgers are -219 over Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals, while the total has moved to 7.5-under (-120). As many of you know, I’m a lifelong Dodgers fan, having rooted for the boys in blue back in the days of Steve Garvey, Ron Cey, Billy Russell and Davey Lopes and ever since then. That said, I’m going to have to take St. Louis +199 in this one.
As strange as it may sound, the Cardinals have the better offense based on location in this one, as St. Louis averaged 4.93 runs on the road against right-handers this season. Since July 1, St. Louis is scoring 5.8 runs per game on the road against right-handers and it’s 6.39 runs per game since August 1.
The Dodgers have been in a bit of an offensive quagmire lately, averaging 4.82 runs at home against right-handed pitchers for the season, 4.64 runs since July 1 and 5.00 runs since August 1.
Even if we give the Dodgers some credit for decreased scoring at a pitcher’s park like Dodger Stadium, they do come up more than a run shy of St. Louis, but if we call it even – or even give the Dodgers a slight edge, it comes down to the pitchers.
Wainwright struggled on the road at the beginning of the season and had some serious home vs. away differences, but over his last eight road starts, the Cardinals are 7-1 and allow 2.62 runs per game. He pitched at Coors Field, against the Giants and against the Brewers twice. He did also get the Pirates twice, the Indians and the Mets, so he had an equal number of games against teams who can score and teams who can’t.
The Dodgers won all five of Scherzer’s starts at Dodger Stadium, including 11-9 and 7-5 wins, as they allowed 4.0 runs per game. He was better on the road since joining the Dodgers, but still, the Dodgers won every game he started.
It would be a crushing defeat for the Dodgers and their fans, but I’ll separate the two and take St. Louis +199 for 1.0 units in this one.
Record: 145-181-1 (-16.67)
The MLB playoffs start today with the storied rivalry between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox. Gerrit Cole and the Yankees are now up to -125 at William Hill over Nathan Eovaldi and the Red Sox, while the total on the game just dropped to 8-under (-115).
Neither pitcher comes into this one in top form, as Cole has an ERA of 7.64 over his last three starts, while Eovaldi checks in with a 6.58, the result of being rocked by the Yankees at home on Sept. 24. Both teams know the pitchers pretty well, having faced them on several occasions already this season. Eovaldi had a couple of good starts against New York before his last outing, while Cole has been decent against the Sox this season, allowing 4 runs in 12 innings over two starts.
He did allow three runs in 6 innings on Sept. 24, when the Yanks won 8-3, with all three runs coming on a 3-run homer in the sixth inning. New York had a 7-0 lead and it’s probably more of a case of Cole not wanting to walk anybody in that situation.
My numbers have Boston winning by using season-to-date numbers and numbers from July 1, but using numbers from August and September, I’d have the Yankees -190, with Cole playing a large part of that, as the Yankees have allowed 2.8 runs in his last five road starts, going 4-1 in those games.
The Sox have gone 5-1 in Eovaldi’s last six home starts, but have allowed 5.33 runs in the process. It helps when you score 8.17 runs per game, however, and Boston has won 20-8, 8-6, and 8-5 over that time span.
Really, this is a tough game to call and I’ve waffled back-and-forth a little bit on this one. Both teams are hitting well and have the past couple of months, but both pitchers have to be given a little bit of consideration here, with Eovaldi having allowed three runs in two career playoff games and Cole’s teams allowing 2.77 runs with him on the mound in the post season.
Going to go ahead and play 1.0 unit on the under 8 (-105) in this one, as we’ll be playing every game in the playoffs, with either a side or a total. Bet sizes will be 1, 1.5 or 2 units, just to put a little separation in games that you really like compared to games you’re playing because they’re on the schedule. Was a disappointing season, for sure, so hoping just to chip away at the deficit a bit before the World Series ends.
Record: 145-181 (-16.67)
A much-needed strong day on Saturday, but the final day is typically one of the toughest of the season, as you don’t know how much effort you’re going to see from the teams who are eliminated. That’s especially true for the teams who were in the playoff hunt for much of the season, while the teams who need to win are going to come with a premium in terms of odds. The sportsbooks know people are much more apt to bet on a team that has to win compared to a team that is playing out the string. So just one small play today and we’ll gear up for the playoffs, which could start Monday if there’s a play-in game, or on Tuesday, when the wild card games are scheduled to begin. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start on a day where everything begins at the same time, so not to have an impact on teams battling for playoff spots.
Cleveland at Texas: Dane Dunning and the Rangers are -115 over Aaron Civale and the Indians and I’m going to take a stab on the Rangers in this one, wagering .46 units to win .40, but no more. The Tribe is wrapping up a disappointing season, as they began the year with playoff aspirations, while the Rangers are looking to send the few fans in attendance home on a winning note in their last appearance of the season. The Rangers are 9-15 when Dunning starts, although he’s pitched a little better than that, especially at home where Texas is 7-5 with him on the mound.
Tampa Bay at New York Yankees: Jameson Taillon and the Yanks are -130 over Michael Wacha and the Rays on a day where some people may have expected to see Cole come back on short rest. Regardless of the outcome here, the Yankees will be playing again, so it makes a little more sense for New York to give Cole an extra day’s rest, knowing they can come back with him Monday if needed, or in the regular wild card game depending on what Toronto, Boston and Seattle do today. If Boston and the Yankees win today, they’re in, while the Blue Jays and Mariners are hoping to see one of the two lose. With Boston being such a large favorite over a first-time starter in Joan Adon, Seattle and Toronto will be rooting for Wacha to have another strong start here. Would lean to the Rays if I had to play, but will almost certainly sit the game out.
Record: 145-180 (-16.21)
A split last night and quite a few plays today, as we’re down to the next-to-last day of the regular season. Will just lick the regular season wounds and look ahead to the playoffs, where we’ll have plays on every game, as we usually do in the postseason. Not because it’s a smart move – it isn’t – but it is the playoffs and people want to wager on the games. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
San Diego at San Francisco: Kevin Gausman and the Giants can wrap up the NL West with a win in this early game and they’re -153 over Joe Musgrove and the Padres. I have the Padres -126 in this one and will go ahead and take San Diego. While the Giants are playing well at home, Gausman’s last few home starts have left a bit to be desired.
Milwaukee at LA Dodgers: Julio Urias and the Dodgers are -130 over Corbin Burnes and the Brewers and this one will likely be determined by what happens in the San Francisco game, which will be played earlier. If the Giants win, you have to expect the Dodgers to rest some players, giving them a few days off before a one-game showdown with St. Louis. The total here is 7.5-under (-125) and if the Giants win, I’ll take the under. This one will be a play or not right after the San Francisco game is final.
Cubs at St. Louis: Jon Lester and the Cardinals are -177 over Adrian Sampson and the Cubs and will take Chicago +162 here. I have Chicago favored and the Cardinals may decide to start looking ahead a little bit to the wild card game and getting players out of the line-up, as this one is pretty meaningless.
Tampa Bay at New York Yankees: Jordan Montgomery and the Yankees are -125 over Shane Baz and the Rays and think Tampa Bay is going to try and play spoiler again, so will take the Rays, who have hit southpaws well on the road. These two teams don’t care for each other much, so the Rays would like nothing more than to keep the Yanks from the postseason.
Baltimore at Toronto: The Jays and Manoah are -255 over John Means and the Orioles, while I have Toronto -240, but will go ahead and take Toronto on the run line at -1.5 (-130). A must win game for Toronto and they have their best pitcher on the mound.
LA Angels at Seattle: Chris Flexen and the Mariners are -177 over Diaz and the Angels and I made Seattle -155, but will take a stab on Seattle -1.5 (+110) in this one. Flexen is capable of shutting down the Angels and this is basically a must-win game for Seattle.
Record: 140-180 (-22.51)
An unexpected day off yesterday, as we head into the final weekend of the season before the single-game playoffs begin on Tuesday. Few people will be as glad as me to see the MLB season end, as it’s been a struggle the second half of the season when a prolonged losing streak took over and it’s been all uphill. Right now, it’s just a question of trying to chip away at the deficit and lessening the damage before the World Series comes to an end. Always tough at this point of the season, as you never know who will making an effort and who will not. There are some teams fighting for playoff spots and you’re going to pay a premium if you want to back them. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Detroit at Chicago White Sox: Lance Lynn and the Sox are -260 over Peralta and the Tigers, while I made this one Chicago -166. Peralta has pitched well this season, although he’s been a little better at home than on the road. His last three road starts have been decent, with Detroit allowing a total of six runs. The Tigers are averaging 5.0 runs on the road against right-handers since the beginning of July, while Chicago is scoring 5.54 runs at home against RHP. Lynn has allowed 4.29 runs at home since July 1. Going to take a stab on the Tigers on the alternate line here and take Detroit +2 at -133.
Angels at Seattle: Marco Gonzales and the Mariners are -160 over the Angels and Suarez and I have the Angels -136 so will go ahead take the Angels +1 at (-105) in this one, although I’m rooting for the Mariners to make the playoffs. Suarez has been sharp on the road this season, while Gonzales has been slightly better than average at home over the past three months. The total of 7.5 indicated a low-scoring game, so will take the +1 in case the Mariners win a 4-3 type of game.
Tampa Bay at New York: Nestor Cortes and the Yankees are -125 over Shane McClanahan and the Tampa Bays and I made the Rays -128 here, so a lean to Tampa Bay but a little hesitant to gran the Rays here, as they’ve already clinched home field advantage. These two teams don’t like each other much, so the Rays may play hard but will also not do anything stupid as it pertains to being ready for the playoffs.
Record: 139-179 (-22.18)
Continue to stink it up on the diamond, and a pretty tough slate of games for Wednesday. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Arizona at San Francisco: Alex Wood and the Giants are -260 over Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks and the line is pretty close to where it should be here, as the Giants get a decent nod in pitching and a strong edge offensively. Going to play the over 8 (-105) in this one. Kelly hasn’t thrown well recently and the Arizona bullpen is even worse, so if the Giants can get a few runs early, this one could see plenty of runs, with the majority of them by the Giants.
Detroit at Minnesota: The Twins are -177 with Michael Pineda and Casey Mize getting the start, while I have the Twins -110 in this one, so a lean to the Tigers but won’t be playing it. Mize has been up-and-down this season, but looks to be a solid starter moving forward. He and Skubal were thrown into the fire this season and have had pretty solid results for young players. Plenty of reason for Detroit to be excited for the future, but that may not help them here, facing a Michael Pineda who is showing signs of returning to his former self. The Twins have won his last three starts and he has a 2.30 ERA in that span. Mize is seeing his pitch count limited, as he’s pitched three innings or less in his last four starts regardless of how he’s throwing.
San Diego at Dodgers: The Dodgers and Max Scherzer are -300 over Ryan Weathers and the Padres and that’s pretty close to what it should be. The LA offense hasn’t been itself lately and the Dodgers are averaging 4.33 runs at home against right-handed starters, which is a little below the league average. But they’ve been getting good starting pitching, so the Dodgers are 15-3 in those game. You can’t lay those types of odds, so if you’re going to play the Dodgers you pretty much have to take them on the runline. LA is -145 or so if you play them -1.5, which is more manageable, although with the LA offense, it might not be easy to get the two-run victory. The Dodgers are -110 if you want to lay -2 runs, but then you’d need LA to win by three runs to win your wager.
Record: 139-178 (-21.13)
A pair of one-run losses yesterday, as the dismal season continues. Some decent games on the slate for Tuesday, so will hope to get a break or two in our favor. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Milwaukee at St. Louis: Brandon Woodruff and the Brewers are -121 over Adam Wainwright and the St. Louis Cardinals and am going to take the Brewers in this one, as a system play. The Cardinals have won 16 straight, have their ace on the mound and are a home underdog, which puts them in a pretty bad situational spot. Teams that have won eight or more straight games and are a home underdog have gone just 9-29 dating back to the 2004 season and team who have won 10 or more are just 1-5 when made a home underdog, with the lone win coming by the Brewers in 2018.
Tampa Bay at Houston: Jose Urquidy and the Astros are -130 over Michael Wacha and the Tampa Bay Rays and will go ahead and take a shot on the Astros in this one, which is more of a bet against Wacha than a play on Urquidy. The Rays are 6-6 when Wacha starts on the road this season, not because he’s pitched halfway decent, but primarily due to their offense. Tampa Bay is allowing 6.25 runs when Wacha starts on the road. Urquidy is overshadowed a bit on the Houston staff, but he’s been decent. The Astros are bringing him back slowly after an injury and he’s stretching out his starts a little bit. The Astros do have a fair bullpen and an off day Monday should make sure everybody is available for tonight.
New York Yankees at Toronto: Ryu and the Blue Jays are -125 over Jameson Taillon and the Yankees and will go ahead and take Toronto -125 in this one. Taillon was the weak link in the Yankee rotation until they picked up Andrew Heaney, but the Yanks have still allowed at least six runs in each of his last six starts, going 4-2 in the process. Ryu shut the Yankees down on Sept. 6 in a game that featured the same pitching matchup as we have tonight in this one. Both teams are battling for the playoffs and trust the experience of Ryu a little bit more in what is a pretty key game for both teams.
Record: 138-176 (-19.67)
A split on Sunday and now a pretty small slate of games for Monday, as the regular season winds down. Still going to need a miracle finish to the season to keep the winning season streak intact, which is quickly fading. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Chicago White Sox at Detroit: Dallas Keuchel and the White Sox are -145 over Matt Manning and the Tigers and I made Detroit -165, so will go ahead and take the Tigers +135 here. Neither pitcher has great stats, which makes the over a bit tempting, although Manning has pitched better as of late, really only having one poor start in his last seven outings. Keuchel has managed to work out of some jams his past few starts, but not so sure he can continue to do so. As bad as the Tigers have been, they’ve kept battling, going 13-9 this month. The Sox are 11-12 in September. Detroit is worth a shot at a fair price in this one.
Washington at Colorado: German Marquez and the Rockies are -160 over Josiah Gray and the Nationals and I made Colorado -245, so will take Colorado -160 here in what should be the final home start of the year for German Marquez. The Rockies’ bullpen let me down a few times last week, but willing to give them another shot in this one. Gray had a solid outing last time but he hasn’t been able to string good outings together, while Marquez knows how to pitch at home. His last three home starts have come against the Dodgers, Atlanta and San Diego, so he should find the Nats’ lineup a little more to his liking. Gray’s last three road starts have been against the Mets and the Marlins twice, so he won’t be able to get away with the same pitches here that he did against them, so will lay the price with the home team.
Kansas City at Cleveland: Cal Qunatrill and the Indians are -172 over Jackson Kowar and the Royals and I have the Tribe -266, so will take the Indians and lay the odds here. Kowar has really labored this season, with his game against Cleveland the best outing he’s had so far. That one was in Kansas City and now he takes to the road, where Quantrill is solid, so have to lay the price with Cleveland.
Record: 137-174 (-18.07)
An ugly day all the way around for me on the plays here, but nothing you can really do but push forward. Favorites are a little overpriced right now, but have won 62% of the time over the past 10 days, but hoping to see a few dogs come through today. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
San Francisco at Colorado: Kevin Gausman and the Giants are -160 over Antonio Senzatela and the Rockies and I have this one even, so will take the Rockies as a price play here. The Giants are on a roll, but are playing their last road game of the season before returning home to wind up the regular season. Senzatela has pitched better as of late and think the Rockies have a chance to avoid the home sweep in this one.
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland: Lucas Giolito and the White Sox are -157 over McKenzie and the Tribe and I have Cleveland -124, so will take Cleveland +147 in this one, as the Tribe get slight edges in both pitching and hitting using stats from Aug. 1 onward. The Sox have hit a little bit of a hitting slump on the road against right-handed pitchers, scoring 3.77 runs per game and going 10-12. Cleveland is 9-12 at home against right-handers in that span, scoring 3.86 runs per game, so real edge there. The pitchers have been pretty even the last two months in terms of runs allowed, so taking a stab with the home dog.
Seattle at LA Angels: Ohtani and the Angels are -130 over Marco Gonzales and the Mariners and I have Seattle -183, so will take Gonzales and the Mariners at +120 in this one. A little surprised to seer the Angels throwing Ohtani, but it’s the last home game of the season and they’re probably hoping to get a packed house. If there’s one player who can help fill the stands other than Mike Trout, it’s Ohtani. The price is a little bit out of whack due to Ohtani’s popularity.
New York Yankees at Boston: Eduardo Rodriguez and the Sox are -111 over Montgomery and the Yanks and I have New York -144, so will take a stab on the Yankees here. New York playing well right now and Montgomery has pitched a little better than Rodriguez over the past couple of months.
Record: 135-172 (-18.28)
Another full slate of games for Saturday, with the ‘sharps’ taking a few stands so far today. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
St. Louis at Cubs: Jon Lester and the Cardinals are down to -145 over Sampson and the Cubs in one of the games where the wise guys are all over the home dog and I’ll tag along on this one with Chicago +135. Sampson has looked good in limited innings this season, while Lester has been getting results than his underlying stats indicate. The Cubs aren’t great against southpaws, but Lester isn’t going to over-power you and think Chicago should have a little more success against him than they would against a left-hander who brings it 95 mph.
Seattle at LA Angels: Anderson and the Mariners are -135 over Barria and the Angels and I made Seattle -287, so will go ahead and take the Mariners -135 in this one, even though Seattle is a bit of a public play today. The Mariners will know either the Yankees or the Red Sox lost earlier in the day and as long as they can keep winning, they can gain ground in the wild card chase. The Angels appear to be going through the motions now, having gone 3-7 in their last 10 games, while the Mariners have won six in a row. Los Angeles plays its final home game of the season tomorrow, so would expect them to put a little more emphasis on that game.
Miami at Tampa Bay: Shane McClanahan and the Rays are -203 over Sandy Alcantara and the Marlins, while I have Tampa Bay -180, so nothing really happening in this one. Alcantara is solid and he’d be a star on a different team, but it’s hard to get too excited about a team with a 24-51 road record when they’re away from home. The Marlins are above .500 at home. The Rays are still looking to clinch the No. 1 spot in the AL and they have a four-game lead over the Astros, so they’ll be playing to win, at least for the next few days before they start to get things in place for the playoffs. Would lean to the Marlins if I really had to play this one, but it’s one where it’s probably best to just stay away and wait to see what Sunday brings.
Record: 135-170 (-15.93)
A split on Thursday and back to a full slate of games for Friday. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
New York Yankees at Boston: Gerritt Cole and the Yankees are -121 over Nathan Eovaldi and the Red Sox in a game both teams need, as they’re battling with Seattle, Toronto and the Oakland A’s for the two wild card spots. Cole was drilled by the Indians his last start, while Eovaldi has been solid in his most recent starts. Cole would appear to be a good candidate to bounce back tonight, which makes the total of 9-under (-115) a little surprising, as you would think this one should be a bit lower. But with both teams hitting the ball well lately, going to go the other way and take a shot on this one going over the total of 9 and lay the -105.
Kansas City at Detroit: Decent game here, with Carlos Hernandez and Casey Mize both -105 in this one. I would normally look to take Mize and the Tigers here, but Hernandez has been solid on the road all season, where the Royals are 3-0 and have allowed a total of 2 runs in those three games. It’s been a little different with Hernandez at home, as Kansas City is 4-3 and allows 5.86 runs per game. Mize has been in a bit of a slump at home, where the Tigers have lost his last four starts in front of the home fans and have allowed 5.5 runs per game. Detroit has been better with Mize on the road. The Tigers are 41-36 at home this season, having won five in a row. Their last home loss was with win Mize on the mound. Would lean to the Royals here and to the Tigers if the game was in Kansas City, but will likely stay away from this one.
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland: Dylan Cease and the Sox are -115 over Shane Bieber and the Tribe in Bieber’s first start since June 13. If I’m Cleveland, I wouldn’t throw him more than three or four innings, as there’s no need to take a chance on him doing some damage. The Indians get a slight nod in the pitching department but a huge edge to the Sox in offense, so have to think Chicago is the right side, but will stay away and just roll with the one play today.
Record: 134-170 (-16.93)
The usual limited number of games for this Thursday, with a couple of early starts, so we’ll get right to it. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
St. Louis at Milwaukee: Adrian Houser and the Brewers are -121 over Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals and I have St. Louis -233, so will take the Cardinals +110 in this one. Wainwright has turned things around on the road and the Cardinals have won his last six starts away from home, allowing 11 runs in those games. For the season, St. Louis is 9-4 with Wainwright on the hill away from St. Louis. Houser has seen decent at home, where the Brewers are 7-4 when he starts and they’ve won six of his last seven home starts. They’ve allowed 25 runs in those seven games, so it’s been a combination of hitting and pitching that is leading the team. The biggest difference between the two teams the last seven weeks has been offense, where the Cardinals are averaging 5.93 runs on the road against right-handed starters and have gone 10-4 in those games. The Brewers are 8-9 at home against RHP and are scoring 4.53 runs per game, so will ride with the road underdog in this spot.
San Francisco at San Diego: The Giants and Logan Webb are -111 over Yu Darvish and the Padres and I made San Francisco -270 in this one, so will go ahead and take the Giants in this one, which isn’t easy to do as a lifelong Dodgers fan. Darvish has pitched a little better at home than he has on the road lately, but Webb has been solid away from home, with the Giants winning eight of his last nine road starts. San Francisco is 9-4 with Webb on the road for the season, allowing 3.38 runs. The Padres are 11-3 with Darvish on the mound at home, but have gone 2-2 in his last four starts, allowing 4.25 runs per game. If we call the pitching matchup even, there’s still a decent edge to the Giants in terms of offense, as the Giants are 15-3 on the road against right-handed starters since Aug. 1, averaging 6.06 runs per game. San Diego is 5-6 at home against right-handed starters and are averaging 4.09 runs per game. Think the Giants can pull this one to maintain their lead over the Dodgers.
Record: 133-169 (-16.92)
Another ugly night last night, with the Sox game painful to watch. When you get 28 hits and 9 walks in a nine-inning game, you expect more than eight runs, but wasn’t mean to be. Going to need a miracle to keep the streak of winning seasons alive. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Washington at Miami: Hernandez and the Marlins are -125 over Gray and the Nationals and I made Miami -268, so going to play the small home favorite here. A definite pitching edge to the Fish in this one, while the Marlins have averaged 4.71 runs at home against right-handed starters since August 1 and gone 12-9. The Nationals are 3-9 on the road against right-handed starters since August 1 and have scored 4.0 runs per game.
Minnesota at Cubs: Joe Ryan and the Twins are -110 over Hendricks and the Cubs and I have Minnesota -300 in this one due to Hendricks just completely falling apart lately, so will take the Twins -110 here. Not sure if Hendricks expected to be moved to a contender at the deadline or what the deal is, but he’s been horrid lately, while Ryan hasn’t pitched all that poorly. Neither team is much to get excited about, but will take the pitcher in better form.
Seattle at Oakland: The A’s and Cole Irvin are -135 over Flexen and the Mariners, while I made Seattle -145, so will take Flexen and Seattle +125, as the Mariners have pulled even with the A’s in the wild card standings. Seattle is 19-9 with Flexen on the mound this season, while the A’s are 14-15 with Irvin on the hill.
LA Dodgers at Colorado: Walker Buehler and the Dodgers are -210 over German Marquez and the Rockies and I have this one even, so will take the Rockies in a split bet here, wagering .4 units on Colorado +190 and .6 units on the Rockies +1.5 (+115). Marquez has always pitched well at home and this year is no exception, as his ERA is nearly a run better at Coors Field. Of course, he isn’t facing a lineup like the Dodgers on a consistent basis, but think he’s worth a stab at generous odds.
Chicago White Sox at Detroit: Lopez and the Sox are -172 over Casey Mize and the Tigers in a game I have even, so will do another split, taking the Tigers at +157 for .5 units and on the run line at +1.5 (-110) in this one.
Record: 129-168 (-19.42)
A split on Monday and now a decent-sized slate on Tuesday. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Kansas City at Cleveland: Cal Qunatrill and the Indians are -145 over Daniel Lynch and the Royals, as the Indians are looking to break into the win column in this series, as Kansas City swept both games Monday. Lynch is laboring a bit right now, while Quantrill is pitching fairly well. After 14 innings on Monday, both teams need their starters to get some innings in, particularly the Royals, who have a worse bullpen than Cleveland. The price is a little bit high on the Tribe, but think we see some runs in this one and will take a stab on the over 9 (-120).
Chicago White Sox at Detroit: Dallas Keuchel and the White Sox are -145 over Alexander and the Tigers, and am going to play the over 9 (-115) in this one as well. Keuchel has just completely fallen off a cliff and while he allowed just three runs in 6 innings in his last start, he did allow 11 baserunners, so he was actually a bit lucky to escape with as little damage as he did. The Tigers are averaging 5.15 runs against left-handed starters at home since July 1, while the Sox are scoring 5.0 runs against left-handed starters on the road since July 1. Keuchel hasn’t had more than three strikeouts in any of his last seven starts, which is a concern, so think both teams can plate some runs in this one.
New York Mets at Boston: Eduardo Rodriguez and the Red Sox are -135 over Marcus Stroman and the New York Mets and I have Boston -147, so a slight lean to the Red Sox. The Mets get the nob in pitching, but a huge offensive edge to the Red Sox in this one, as the Mets struggle a bit against left-handed starters. The Mets are mathematically alive for the wild card spot, but for all practical purposes, they’re out of it. The Sox are in the lead right now for an AL wild card spot, but with four other teams battling for one of the two spots, the Sox need this one. Boston is 40-20 against sub-.500 teams this season and 47-29 at home, while the Mets are 29-44 away from home and 36-49 against .500 or better teams.
Record: 129-166 (-17.07)
Still heading the wrong direction, going 1-2 on Sunday, losing with the Astros on the run line. Sure, I could have said take Houston -219, but not about to be one of those people who releases a -250 favorite and then runs around on social media acting like they’re the greatest thing around. You don’t need anyone telling you a -220 favorite has a good chance of winning. You already know that. Anyway, enough of the rant. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: The Reds and Gutierrez are -157 over Peters and the Pirates and I have it much closer, so am going to take a stab on the Pirates +147 in this one. Gutierrez has been very good or very bad in his most recent home starts, while Peters has pitched well on the road recently, so think the Pirates are worth a stab in this one.
Washington at Miami: This one is -105 both ways with Fedde and Luzardo the two starters and I like the Marlins -105 in this one. The offenses are pretty even in terms of Miami’s runs at home against right-handed starters and the Nats’ road offense against left-handed pitchers, while Luzardo has thrown a little better at home than he has on the road.
Toronto at Tampa Bay: Robbie Ray and the Blue Jays are -130 over Baz and the Tampa Bay Rays, while I have Toronto -180. While Baz may be getting the start, there’s no telling how long he’ll remain in the game. As good as Tampa Bay has been, the one area where they’ve struggled a bit as is a home underdog, where they’ve gone 6-10 and lost three of their last four, including a 3-1 decision to Ray and the Blue Jays back in July, so will take the Jays -130 in this one.
Seattle at Oakland: Sean Manaea and the A’s are -177 over Tyler Anderson and the Mariners and I have Seattle favored in this one, so will go ahead and make the fourth, and final, play of the day on the Mariners +162. Seattle has left-handers well on the road since July 1, while the A’s have labored a bit against southpaws at home. Anderson has been a little bit up-and-down during the season, but think Seattle is worth a shot at pretty generous odds.
Record: 127-164 (-17.39)
Heading the wrong way a little bit again, as the underdogs aren’t getting it done. Tough slate today with a lot of large favorites, so will see what we can do here. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Arizona at Houston: Zack Greinke and the Astros are -219 over Zac Gallen and the Diamondbacks, while I made Houston -310, so will go ahead and take a shot on the Astros on the run line at -125. The Astros are scoring 5.3 runs at home against right-handed starters since July 1, while the Diamondbacks are scoring 4.05 runs on the road against RHP. The Astros are 13-7 at home against RHP, while the Diamondbacks are 7-13 on the road against right-handed starters since July 1. With a decent advantage in both offense and defense will go ahead and take on a shot on the Astros winning by at least two runs in this one.
LA Dodgers at Cincinnati: The Dodgers are -195 with Clayton Kershaw and Wade Miley taking the mound and I have the Reds -122, so going to have to go against the Dodgers here and take a shot on the Reds +175. Both teams have scored runs against left-handed pitchers recently, with the Dodgers going 5-3 on the road against LHP since July 1 and scoring 6.38 runs per game. They did score 13 runs in one game that distorts their average a little bit, while also tacking on nine runs against Kyle Freeland in Colorado. The Reds are 4-3 against LHP and are scoring 6.14 runs per game and also had one game where they scored 14 runs. Not sure how long the Dodgers will use Kershaw here, as it’s his second start since coming back from injury.
Atlanta at San Francisco: Anthony DeSclafani and the Giants are -121 over Max Fried and the Braves, while I made this one Atlanta -155, so will take another shot on the Braves and take Atlanta +110 in this one. The Giants are 6-5 at home against LHP since July 1 and averaging 4.27 runs per game, while Atlanta has gone 12-11 on the road against RHP, scoring 4.96 runs per game. The pitchers have been pretty even, with Fried allowing 3.62 runs per game on the road since July 1 and the Giants allowing 4.17 runs when DeSclafani starts in front of the home fans.
Record: 126-162 (-16.24)
A split last night and a bit of a loss, with the favored Marlins being the one setback in a game that was painful to watch, as the Pirates scored a pair of unearned runs to win 2-1, with Miami getting a leadoff triple in the bottom of the ninth, but unable to bring him home. That’s baseball, however. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Atlanta at San Francisco: The Giants and Alex Wood are -115 over Charlie Morton and the Braves and I made Atlanta -265, so will have to take the Braves+105 in this one. Atlanta is averaging 6.42 runs on the road against southpaws since July 1, while the Giants are averaging 4.72 runs against right-handed starters at home since that time. The big difference has been in the pitchers, where Morton is allowing 3.0 runs in the away games he has started since June 1, while the Giants have allowed 5.11 runs when Wood starts at home. With the edge in pitching and hitting, have to play Atlanta in this one.
San Diego at St. Louis: Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals are -115 over Yu Darvish and the Padres and you have to wonder why the line isn’t higher in this one. Wainwright has been pitching great lately, while Darvish has fallen off a cliff, especially when he starts on the road. Since June 1, the Padres have gone 0-7 with Darvish on the hill and are allowing more than 7.0 runs per game. The Padres have allowed at least 8 runs in Darvish’s last four road starts. He’s been quite a bit better at home, with San Diego going 5-2, but has been around long enough where you really don’t expect him to have such a disparity in his home and away efforts.
Detroit at Tampa Bay: Ryan Yarbrough and the Rays are -177 over Tarik Skubal and the Tigers in a game where I wanted to take Detroit, but will most likely just stay away from this one and ride with the one play on Atlanta. I have this one a bit closer than the odds, with Tampa Bay -112. The pitching is pretty even, with Skubal allowing 4.29 runs in his road starts compared to the Rays allowing 4.33 runs with Yarbrough at home, but Tampa Bay gets a slight advantage in the scoring department, averaging 5.13 runs at home against LHP since July 1, while Detroit is scoring 4.9 runs on the road against right-handers.
Record: 126-161 (-15.24)
The Royals came up short on Thursday, so have dropped a couple of underdogs in a row. Looking like a few favorites on today’s card, so will hope for a little better outcome.
Philadelphia at Mets: Zack Wheeler and the Phillies have been bet up to -145 over Taijuan Walker and the Mets and I have the Phillies -216, so will play the road favorite in this one. Walker has been on a steady decline, while Wheeler has been pitching solid on the road. The Phillies are scoring plenty of runs on the road against right-handed starters lately, averaging more than 6 runs per game since July 1, but are just 12-10 since they haven’t always gotten the best pitching. Wheeler should be able to hold the Mets’ offense in check a little bit and Walker is still getting by a little on his early-season success. He hasn’t been terrible lately, but the Mets are allowing 4.5 runs in his home starts since June 1, and have gone 3-5. The Phillies are allowing 3.43 runs in Wheeler’s road starts since June 1 and Philadelphia has gone 5-2.
Pittsburgh at Miami: Hernandez and the Marlins are -153 over Wil Crowe and the Pirates and I have the Fish -196, so will take a stab on the home favorite in this one. The Pirates are just 5-13 on the road against right-handed starters since July 1, while the Marlins have gone 16-11 at home against RHP since July 1. The Pirates are scoring 4.61 on the road against right-handed starters in those game, while the Marlins are scoring 4.48 runs at home, so not much difference in the offenses. The Marlins do get the pitching edge in this one and Hernandez has thrown better than he has on the road.
San Diego at St. Louis: Ugly pitching matchup here, as Vince Velasquez gets the start for the injury-depleted San Diego Padres, while Miles Mikolas gets the nod for the Cardinals and both have stunk it up lately. When we last saw Velasquez he was getting shelled for the Phillies, who had enough after they allowed 44 runs in Velasquez’s last four starts for the team. The Cardinals are 2-4 in the games Mikolas has started, allowing 6.17 runs per game and he’s really gotten roughed up his last couple of starts. Wouldn’t touch this one even though the over looks like the way to go, but still won’t play it.
Record: 125-160 (-14.71)
Another late-inning meltdown by the Seattle bullpen did us in for the second straight day, and then Minor was scratched from his start against Oakland, which hurt, as the Royals had some success against Sean Manaea, but Hernandez was just brutal and the Royals took the 12-10 loss, which is why listing pitchers is a must when you wager on baseball. Not too many games today and a tough one for handicapping purposes, so just one play. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must go.
Oakland at Kansas City: Blackburn and the A’s just dropped to -115 over Daniel Lynch and the Royals while I was in the middle of writing this after being -121 earlier. Oakland opened -125 and has received two-thirds of the wagers, yet we’ve seen the line drop on the game. The Royals are 7-2 when Lynch is on the mound since the start of July 1, while the A’s have gone 2-3 in the five games Blackburn has started. Offensively, with the A’s scoring less against southpaws than against right-handers, I have the two offenses rated pretty even, with the Royals getting the nod with Lynch on the mound, so I’ll go ahead and take Kansas City +105 for the lone play of the day.
Colorado at Atlanta: Ian Anderson and the Braves are -172 over German Marquez and the Rockies, while I have it a little higher in favor of Atlanta, with the Braves -223. I like Marquez and he’s done a solid job both in Coors Field and on the road, with the Rockies allowing 3.86 runs in his road starts, but Anderson has been even better at home, with the Braves allowing five runs in his three home starts since July 1.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: Tyler Mahle and the Reds are -177, which might be a shade high, but pretty tough to go against the Reds in this one. As mentioned yesterday, the Pirates are above .500 at home against right-handed pitchers since July 1, which is a bit of a surprise considering how bad they’ve been for the season. Mahle is throwing well on the road, with the Reds going 11-6, although they are 3-5 in his last eight starts as a visitor. Overton hasn’t looked bad in a few relief spots this season, but it’s a question of how long he can go in this one, as the Pittsburgh bullpen leaves a bit to be desired.
Record: 125-159 (-13.71)
A split on Tuesday, so we head to Wednesday and a couple of early starts. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Boston at Seattle: Tanner Houck and the Red Sox are -125 over Gonzales and the Mariners and I made Seattle -138, so will come right back with Seattle +115 in this one. The Seattle bullpen imploded late last night and the Red Sox won 8-4, but think Seattle can bounce back in this one with Gonzales on the mound. The Mariners are 5-1 with Gonzales on the mound at home since July 1, allowing 3.5 runs per game, with four teams scoring three runs or less. Boston is 6-12 on the road against left-handed pitchers since July 1 and while they got the win last night, Anderson was long gone before the Sox put up five runs in the eighth inning. Houck hasn’t pitched all that bad, with Boston going 1-3 in his road starts since July 1, allowing 4.25 runs per game. Seattle is 11-8 at home against RHP since July 1.
Oakland at Kansas City: Sean Manaea and the A’s are -135 over Mike Minor and the Kansas City Royals, while I have Kansas -129, so will take the Royals +125 in this one. The A’s are 4-6 on the road against left-handed starters since July 1, averaging 4.3 runs per game, while the Royals are 8-4 at home against southpaws and averaging 5.0 runs per game. Oakland is 4-3 in Manaea’s away starts since July 1, allowing 5.14 runs per game and have given up 24 runs in his last three starts, losing two of the three. Kansas City is just 1-4 with Minor on the mound at home, allowing 5.2 runs per game, but scoring just 2.4 runs, which is why you see such a big difference in the win-loss records of the two pitchers despite the number of runs allowed being pretty much even.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: The Reds and Gutierrez are -135 over Keller and the Pirates, while the numbers have it a lot higher in a game the Pirates are getting a little bit of sharp action. Surprisingly, the Pirates are 10-9 at home against right-handed starters since July 1, while the Reds have gone 12-8 on the road against RHP. The Reds opened closer to -150 in this one and the line has dropped with three-quarters of the bets on Cincinnati.
Record: 125-158 (-12.71)
The usual Tuesday slate of games today in MLB, so we’ll get right to it. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Tampa Bay at Toronto: Jose Berrios and the Blue Jays are -130 over Drew Rasmussen and the Rays, while I have Tampa Bay -157, so will go ahead and take the Rays +120 in this one. Tampa Bay is 5-1 when Rasmussen starts, with the lone loss coming in a 3-2 setback to Chris Sale and the Red Sox. Rasmussen has started on the road four times and the Rays came away with the win in each contest. Rasmussen isn’t going to give you more than four or five innings on the mound, but he hasn’t allowed more than one run in his last six starts. Berrios is also pitching better as of late, but the Rays have been a slightly higher-scoring team even though their offense doesn’t get the same attention as Toronto. Should be a decent game, but will take a shot on the underdog in this one.
Boston at Seattle: Nathan Eovaldi and the Red Sox are -140 over Tyler Anderson and the Mariners and I made Seattle -140, so will take the Mariners +130 in this one. Eovaldi has labored on the road a bit as of late, with Boston going 1-5 in his six road starts since July 1, allowing 5.67 runs per game. The Red Sox are just 5-12 on the road against left-handed starters since July 1, averaging just 3.88 runs per game. The Mariners don’t score a whole lot more against right-handed pitchers at home, averaging 4.11 runs per game, but have gone 11-7 since July 1. Anderson has been decent since joining Seattle, with the Mariners going 5-3 in his eight starts.
St. Louis at Mets: Marcus Stroman and the Mets are -172 over Woodford and the Cardinals, while I have the Mets -117. The Mets are a bit of a popular today with the sharp bettors, as the line opened at -155 and climbed to -172 even though the Cardinals are getting a little more than half the wagers in the game. Lean to the Mets here, but the odds are a little too much for me and will just go ahead and stay away. While the Cardinals aren’t known for their offense, they have averaged 5.32 away from home when facing a right-handed starter since July 1.
Record: 124-157 (-12.91)
Don’t think it would have made much difference if Snell had been able to throw more than 11 pitches or not yesterday, but you pretty much knew in the bottom of the first we were going to be on the wrong side of the game. Those things are going to happen over the course of the season and there’s nothing you can do about that, so onto Monday and the typical reduced schedule.
Favorites have been winning at a 62.1% clip since August 1, with away favorites faring a little better at 63% and home favorites have won at a 61.5% ratio. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
San Diego at San Francisco: This one is -105 both ways with Yu Darvish and Dominic Leone and I have the Giants -143, so will take San Francisco -105 in this one. Darvish has fallen apart on the road lately, with the Padres losing his last six away starts and allowing 8 or more runs in four of those games. Leone has been solid in his two starts with the Giants, but he’s only go to a couple of innings and the team will turn it over to the bullpen. The Giants are 13-7 at home against RHP since July 1, while the Padres are 7-14 against RHP and almost as bad against LHP.
Miami at Washington: Sandy Alcantara and the Marlins are now down to -105 both ways against Espino and the Nationals, while I have Washington -121. The Marlins are 5-12 on the road against right-handed starters since July 1, scoring 4.06 runs, while the Nats are 7-10 against RHP at home since July 1, but are scoring 5.53 runs per game. Alcantara hasn’t pitched that bad on the road lately, with his numbers distorted a little bit by a rough outing at Colorado. Espino has been decent on the road, but hasn’t been as sharp at home.
Houston at Texas: Jake Odorizzi and the Astros are -190 and I have it a bit closer, so possibly a little bit of value on the home underdog. Howard has thrown well in two of his last three starts, it’s a matter of if he’ll be able to continue or if he’ll revert back to giving up a few runs in the couple of innings he usually lasts. Will likely just stay away from this one.
The Mets came up a run short on Saturday in an entertaining game, just didn’t the have the end result we were looking for. Have been spinning the wheels now for about the last week after putting a bit of a dent into the deficit. Another tough slate with some huge favorites, so once again just a single play and hope the slate looks a little better for tomorrow’s abbreviated slate. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
San Diego at LA Dodgers: Max Scherzer and the Dodgers are -160 over Blake Snell and the Padres and I have San Diego -177, so will take the Padres +150 in this one. The Dodgers have been a little quiet with the bats lately at home, as Los Angeles is scoring 4.47 runs at home since July 1, which is below the league average of 4.63 runs. Against left-handers, the Dodgers have scored a total of 21 runs in their last seven home games, scoring more than 4 runs just once. The Padres have been scoring plenty of runs against right-handed pitchers on the road, but they’re also allowing plenty of runs, as they’ve scored 5.3 runs on the road against RHP, but have allowed 4.85. The Padres are just 4-9 with Snell on the road this season, but all four wins have come in his last five away starts, where the Padres have allowed a total of seven runs. San Diego is allowing 3.0 runs with Snell on the mound since July 1 regardless of location.
The Dodgers have won all seven of Scherzer’s starts and he’s had a few good games in there, but the Dodgers have allowed 3, 3 and 5 runs in his three home starts and thinking Snell can match him if he keeps up his current form and the Padres are scoring a little better, so will take a stab on San Diego in this one.
Boston at Chicago: Lance Lynn and the White Sox are -153 over Nick Pivetta and the Red Sox and I have Chicago -150, so nothing doing in this one, which is a decent situation for Chicago based on trends this year. Away underdogs who won the previous game and scored 9 or more runs are 17-44 if an away underdog the next game. Pivetta has been a hard-luck pitcher on the road this season, as Boston is 2-7 when he starts since June 1 despite allowing just 3.0 runs per game. Boston has lost 1-0 twice and 2-1 another time.
Record: 123-156 (-12.91)
Tough slate of games for this 9/11, with most of the games being played at night. Just one play as a few games don’t have lines out yet, so the slate is a bit limited.
NY Yankees at New York Mets: Corey Kluber and the Yankees are -125 over Taijuan Walker and the Mets, while I made the Mets -152, so going to take the Mets +115 in this one. Walker has regressed since his hot start to the season, like everybody pretty much knew he would, but he’s still been respectable, with the Mets allowing 4.73 runs in his home starts since July 1, which is just .13 more than the league average. Kluber was better in his last start, his second since coming back, but still wasn’t that impressive, allowing four hits and three walks in 3 2/3 innings. Despite scoring seven runs in both of those games, the Yanks lost them both 8-7. The Mets are averaging 4.06 runs at home since July 1, while the Yanks are scoring 4.05 runs on the road, so no edge there to either team. Even though Walker is sporting a 7-9 record, the Mets are 15-10 when he starts, going 8-1 in the games Walker didn’t earn a decision. Think the Mets are worth a stab at plus money.
Washington at Pittsburgh: Josiah Gray and the Nationals are -130 over Wil Crowe and the Pirates and the line is pretty much right where it should be, as the Nats get a bit of an edge offensively, while the pitching is pretty even here. But awfully hard to lay money on a Washington team that is 4-16 on the road against right-handed starters since July 1, so no real interest in playing this one either way.
San Diego at LA Dodgers: Walker Buehler and the Dodgers are -203 over Chris Paddack and the Padres, while I made Los Angeles -170. A little surprising the Dodgers haven’t been that great against right-handed starters at home since July 1, going 12-8 but scoring just 3.9 runs per game, which is well below the league average. The Dodgers have gone 4-2 with Walker on the mound at home since July 1, primarily since he just allows 2.5 runs per game, with the two losses to the Giants and Astros. The Dodgers have allowed 3 runs or less in his last four home starts.
Record: 123-155 (-11.91)
The joy of seeing the Yankees tie last night’s game with the Blue Jays in the sixth was quickly dashed when seeing Sal Romano take the mound for the Yanks in the seventh and as expected, he gave the lead back and some other shoddy relief work saw New York fall 6-4. Onto today, where we have a decent slate of games, but not a great one from a handicapping perspective. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Boston at Chicago White Sox: Carlos Rodon and the White Sox are -153 over Tanner Houck and the Red Sox and I have Chicago -238, so will take the home favorite in this one. Boston is just 5-11 on the road against left-handed starters since July 1 and is averaging 3.94 runs, while Chicago is 13-7 at home against right-handed starters, averaging 5.95 runs since July 1. Rodon is allowing 3.6 runs at home since the beginning of June, while the Red Sox allow 4.33 runs when Houck pitches away from home in that same time span. Not the greatest of spots for the Sox, returning home after an extended road trip, but think they take the game here.
Milwaukee at Cleveland: The Indians are getting some sharp action in this one, as the line has dropped from Brewers –157 to Milwaukee -140 with Houser and Morgan taking the mound for their respective teams. The Brewers are a solid 21-4 on the road against right-handed starters since July 1, while Cleveland is just 8-12 at home against right-handed starters in the same time span. The Brewers allow 3.83 runs per game with Houser on the road since June 1, so all of the signs are pointing to the Brewers, yet we’ve seen the line take a decent move the other way despite 63% of the bets coming in on Milwaukee, so will stay away from this one.
San Diego at LA Dodgers: Julio Urias and the Dodgers are -153 over Musgrove and the Padres in a bit of a tough spot for LA, who are also returning home from a lengthy road trip that didn’t go all that well. Want no part of the Padres here, as I have the Dodgers -280, but will just stay away from LA until they get settled in a little bit more and get used to the Pacific Time Zone.
Record: 122-155 (-12.91)
Smaller slate of games for Thursday and a bit of a tough slate from a betting perspective. The wise guys have taken a stand on a few of the games, so will see what we can come up with for the day. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Toronto at New York Yankees: Cortes and the Yankees are -115 over Berrios and the Blue Jays and I made New York -172, so will go ahead take the Yankees -115 for the lone play of the day. The Yankees are in the middle of a five-game losing streak and home favorites who have lost at least five games are 12-6 this season. New York has gone 7-2 in the nine games Cortes has started this season and 4-0 at home. He’s been solid in both locations, although a bit better at home. Think the Yankees can get back on track with a win in this spot and avoid the four-game home sweep.
Chicago White Sox at Oakland: The A’s and Sean Manaea are now -140 over the White Sox and Reynaldo Lopez in a game that the Sox are getting the bulk of the wagers. Neither pitcher has been sharp in recent starts, as Lopez allowed 3 runs in 4 innings in each of his last two starts, both of which were on the road. He’s been sharper at home in his limited starts. Manaea has labored at home a little bit in his recent starts, but the Sox do get a bit of an offensive advantage. The betting on this one makes me a little nervous about the Sox, so will just stay clear of this one.
Colorado at Philadelphia: Ranger Suarez and the Phillies are -190 over Antonio Senzatela and the Rockies in a game where the line is a bit on the high side. I have the Phillies closer to -120, as the Rockies have scored a few more runs against left-handed starters on the road lately. Senzatela is pitching well, having thrown at least 6 innings in each of his last five starts and allowing 3 runs or less in each one. Suarez is off to a strong start this year, with an ERA under 2.00 but hasn’t gotten a ton of run support this season when he’s started. The Phillies have more to play for, which has been factored into the line a bit.
Record: 122-154 (-11.76)
Back after an unplanned absence yesterday, so we’ll get right to it. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Seattle at Houston: Jose Urquidy and the Astros are -180 over Tyler Anderson and the Mariners and I have this one at Houston -130, so going to take a shot on the Mariners +165 in this one. Urquidy was fair in his return, allowing two earned runs in 4 1/3 innings, while allowing six base runners in a game the Astros won. Sometimes it’s the second start back when things go south a little bit. Anderson has helped keep the Mariners in the playoff hunt, as Seattle has won four of his last five starts and this is simply a game Seattle needs a little more, not only to try and narrow the deficit to the Astros, but they’re now 3.0 games back in the wildcard chase.
Chicago White Sox at Oakland: Frankie Montas and the A’s are now -172 over Dallas Keuchel and the White Sox and the wheels have fallen off the bus for Dallas, who has been horrid lately, allowing 18 runs over his last three starts, which has been a total of 9 innings. His ERA over his last three starts is 16.00 and he wasn’t much better in last few starts prior to that. Chicago needs him to get things straightened out in a hurry, as he’s a better pitcher than he’s shown over the past five weeks. Montas is solid and is pitching well, but doesn’t get the run support some others do, which is Oakland is 11-9 in his starts despite his 3.68 ERA. The Oakland bullpen has done well for Montas and that also helps, as Oakland allows 3.43 runs when Montas pitches at home since July 1. The White Sox are allowing more than 6 runs with Keuchel on the road.
Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs: Vladamir Gutierrez and the Reds are -121 in this one against Alec Mills and the Cubs and I have the Reds -210, but we’re seeing a bit of sharp action on the Cubs in this one, so will likely just stay away. Gutierrez has been a solid pitcher on the road, while Mills has been a little up and down at home, but the Cubs are playing well and are just able to go out there and play without any pressure.
Record: 121-154 (-13.41)
Today’s MLB slate looks a lot like a typical Sunday, with the majority of games being played in the daytime. There are a couple of night games, but our plays today are all day games, so you’ll be able to focus on the college football game tonight, which should be an entertaining one. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Philadelphia at Milwaukee: Brandon Woodruff and the Brewers are down to -135 over Wheeler and the Phillies, while I made Philadelphia -163, so will go ahead and take the Phillies +125 in this one. Woodruff is one of the elite pitchers in the game today, but Wheeler has pretty much matched him from July 1 onward, as the Phillies allow 4.0 runs per game on the road when Wheeler starts compared to the 3.71 runs the Brewers are allowing with Woodruff on the mound at home. The big difference in this one is hitting, where the Phillies are averaging 6.15 runs on the road against right-handed starters since July 1 and the Brewers are scoring 4.25 runs against RHP at home. The Phillies are fighting for the playoffs, while the Brewers are pretty much locked in, so the visitors should have a little more urgency.
Cincinnati at Cubs: Sonny Gray and the Reds are -153 over Steele and the Cubs and I have the Reds -205, so will take Cincinnati in this one. The Cubs have won 6 in a row, but home underdogs who have won at least six straight are 26-48 the last 10 years and 12-23 since the start of the 2018 season. Sweeping the Pirates is one thing, but now the Cubs are playing a team fighting for the playoffs and think they come up short today.
San Francisco at Colorado: Kevin Gausman and the Giants are down to -145 over Kyle Freeland the Rockies, while I made Colorado -122, so will take the Rockies +135 even though we’ve lost a lot of value this morning, as some sharp money has come in on the home dog. The situation isn’t great for the Giants, having played last night at home against the Dodgers, and now having to travel to Coors Field and the Rockies are still one of the best home teams in the league despite stinking on the road. Freeland has yet to regain his form of a few seasons ago but the Rockies are 6-2 when he starts at home this season.
Record: 120-152 (-12.13)
Major League Baseball has the center stage for the last time on a Sunday, with the Dodgers and the Giants doing battle for first place in the NL West in the night game. Fairly tough slate of games today, with a few overpriced favorites, so once again just a single play. As usual, lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs: Zach Davies and the Cubs are -153 over Wil Crowe and the Pirates and I’m going to back the Cubs in this one, even though my projected line is a little bit closer than the odds. The Pirates are 7-20 on the road against right-handed starters since June 1, while the Cubs aren’t a whole lot better at 12-17. The Pirates have gone 4-5 on the road when Crowe starts, although he’s received a lot of help from the bullpen in those games, as he has lasted fewer than 5 innings and sports an ERA of 5.95 on the road. Considering the Pittsburgh bullpen has an ERA of 5.12 on the road, the Pirates have done well to allow just 5.33 runs in those games. Crowe has won his last two starts despite allowing 8 runs in less than 10 innings. Davies has gotten quick hooks in his last two starts despite pitching relatively well, allowing three earned runs in 9 innings. The Pirates are also in a 14-32 season-long trend regarding away underdogs who scored at least six runs the previous day and lost as an away dog. The price is a bit high on a Chicago team that is struggling for wins, but think they have a better shot at winning than their odds suggest.
Detroit at Cincinnati: Castillo and the Reds are -219 over Casey Mize and the Tigers, which is quite a bit too high, but Castillo commits the greatest gambling sin there is by being inconsistent. He has been pitching better as of late, but is capable of going out there and stinking the place up. I have the Reds -124 but you never know which Castillo is going to show up.
Oakland at Toronto: Oakland also falls into the same trend that the Pirates do and are huge underdogs in this one, as Robbie Ray is -210 over Cole Irvin, which is way too high, but the Jays look to be attracting some sharp money in this one and I’ll stay away.
Record: 119-152 (-13.13)
We managed to pull one out of the air last night, as those are the types of games that usually go against us, or at least they have this season. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Atlanta at Colorado: Ian Anderson and the Braves are -115 over German Marquez and the Rockies and I made Colorado -195, so will take the Rockies +105 for the only play of the day. Marquez has been a beast at home this season, where Colorado is 12-3 when he starts and allow 3.93 runs. Since June 1, Colorado is 7-1 when Marquez takes the mound at home and allowing just 2.38 runs per game. Anderson has pitched well on the road, with the Braves allowing 4.1 runs per game, and allowing 3.4 runs per game since June 1. Those performances haven’t translated to wins, however, as the Braves are 1-4 since June 1 when he starts on the road. The Rockies are 30-18 at home against right-handed starters and 21-7 since June 1, where they score 6.04 runs per game. The Braves are 17-17 on the road against RHP since June 1.
Philadelphia at Miami: The Phillies and Ranger Suarez are -125 over Trevor Rogers and the Fish and the Marlins are in a decent spot that shows home underdogs off a win the previous day as home underdogs are 10-8 this season. I made the Phillies -148 but no interest in taking Philadelphia here.
St. Louis at Milwaukee: Adrian Houser and the Brewers are -115 over Kim and the Cardinals and St. Louis finds itself on the opposite end of the spectrum compared to the Marlins, as St. Louis was an away dog who won the previous game as an away underdog in which they scored 10 or more runs. Those teams are just 9-26 this season. Interestingly, these teams are 21-14 on the run line, so a lot of one-run losses. The Detroit Tigers also fall into the trend. Last year these teams were 7-9 and 26-41 in 2019, so they’re certainly performing worse this season than in the past. The 2019 season was another where there were plenty of one-run losses, as the teams that were 26-41 straight-up posted a 42-24 record on the run line and showed a decent profit. In 2020, these teams that went 7-9 were 10-6 when bet on the run line.
Record: 118-152 (-14.18)
Big slate of games for Friday, but a tough one from a handicapping perspective, so just one play for the day. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Oakland at Toronto: Manoah and the Blue Jays are -153 over the A’s and Sean Manaea and I have Toronto -148, but am going to back the Jays in this one and lay the -153. Toronto opened -135 and the line has climbed a fair amount with Toronto getting 62% of the wagers in the game, so the odds have climbed higher than the betting numbers would indicate. The Blue Jays are 5-1 with Manoah on the mound at home, allowing just 6 runs in the last four games. The situation also favors the Blue Jays, who had a day off yesterday to rest after playing Baltimore at home for three games, while Oakland had to travel after playing the Tigers on Thursday. Oakland is 1-4 in Manaea’s last five starts and he’s failed to reach the fifth inning in any of them, while Manoah has been solid in five of his last six outings. The line is a little steep, but think the Jays are the way to go in this one.
Houston at San Diego: The Padres are getting a little money in this one, as the line on the Astros has dropped down to -130, with Jose Urquidy returning to the mound and facing Jake Arrieta, who wasn’t all that impressive in his San Diego debut, although that game was played in Colorado, making it a little tough to get a decent read on. The Padres must have seen enough positives to give Arrieta another opportunity to start when they could have gone with one of their AAA pitchers. Hard to back the Padres here, however, as Arrieta’s teams have lost his last nine starts, but wouldn’t be shocked if he has a fair outing in this one.
Dodgers at Giants: David Price and the Dodgers are -115 over Anthony DeSclafani and the Giants in the big game of the day, while I made LA -165 in this one. Price has pitched a little better than his numbers suggest, but the Dodgers are just 4-7 when he starts, but the Giants are allowing more than 5 runs when DeSclafani starts at home since June 1. San Francisco is 4-2 in those games, thanks to a 13-7 win over the Diamondbacks and the Giants won a couple of other games they allowed 4 runs in. Tough game to play, so will just watch and pull for my Dodgers.
Record: 117-152 (-15.18)
The Rays couldn’t hang on to a lead last night and fell in the ninth inning, keeping the streak alive of late-inning trouble. Small slate of games today, with a few games still without lines so not really a whole lot to choose from. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Oakland at Detroit: The A’s and Frankie Montas are now -190 over Matt Manning and the Tigers in a game that saw the line move from -195 to -190, while the run line just climbed from Oakland -115 to Oakland -120. Huge pitching edge to the A’s in this one, as Montas hasn’t allowed more than 3 earned run in a start since June. Manning has had a couple of better starts recently, but like Oakland here. The price is steep, but there’s really nothing else on the board that jumps out, so will have to bite the bullet and take the A’s.
Boston at Tampa Bay: The Rays and McClanahan are -160 over the Red Sox and Rodriguez, while I have the line Tampa Bay -157, so no edge here either way. The pitchers are pretty close since June 1, with the Rays allowing 3.43 runs with McClanahan at home and the Red Sox allowing 3.38 runs. A decent hitting advantage goes to Tampa Bay, as they score 5.0 runs at home against left-handed starters compared to the 3.95 run the Sox score against LHP on the road, where they’ve gone just 5-14 since June 1.
Milwaukee at San Francisco: The Giants and Logan Webb are -177 over Eric Lauer and the Brewers, as Milwaukee tries to complete the four-game sweep of San Francisco. Webb has been a beast lately, but Lauer hasn’t been bad, although he’s only throwing between 4 and 6 innings a start, with his longest outing of the season 6 1/3 innings. Would be tempted to take the Brewers on the run line if the price were just a little bit lower, but not really eager to lay -135 in this spot.
Atlanta at Colorado: The Braves and Touissant are back up to -157 after dropping for a bit this morning, as Chi Chi Gonzalez takes the mound for the Rockies. Hard to lay odds against the Rockies at home right now, as they’re 20-6 against right-handed starters since June 1. Tough game to play, so will just pass.
Record: 116-152 (-16.18)
A decent slate of games for Wednesday, so we’ll get right to it. September can pose a challenge, as teams are calling up players from the minors to get a glimpse of what they can do and we’ll start to see a few new starters out there over the next few weeks. Will likely keep it at one or two plays for the next few days until we have a better idea of what particular teams are going to do in terms of throwing players out on the field. A last-place team may want to get looks at a couple of players and pencil them into the line-up, while teams fighting for the postseason may limit their call-ups to pinch hitting, as a defensive replacement or pitching in a game that is out of hand one way or the other. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Boston at Tampa Bay: Huge line move here in this game, as the line has moved from Boston -115 to Tampa Bay -110, as Rasmussen and Sale make the starts for their respective teams. I have the Rays -137, so am going to go ahead and play the Rays -110 in this one. While the pitchers get all of the attention, baseball is still a team game and the Rays are 20-7 at home since July 1, while the Red Sox have gone 10-19 on the road the past couple of months, which is why they’re now just a game ahead of Oakland in the wild card standings and have let Seattle and Toronto get back into playoff contention. The Rays have won nine straight and think they’ll make it 10 in this one.
Atlanta at LA Dodgers: Max Scherzer and the Dodgers have climbed to -213 over Max Fried and the line is a bit higher than it should be, as I have the Dodgers -150, but not quite enough value to take a stab on the Braves in this one.
Philadelphia at Washington: Aaron Nola and the Phillies are -172 over the Nats and Espino and I have the Phils -110, as Nola hasn’t been all that great on the road since June 1.
Houston at Seattle: The Astros have dropped from -140 ot -125 with Jake Odorizzi and Gilbert the starters here. Not much of a difference between the starting pitchers, but the ‘Stros get the edge in hitting, but one I’ll stay away from.
Record: 116-151 (-15.08)
The late innings weren’t kind to us on Monday, losing leads in the eighth and the ninth innings to go 0-2 for the day. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Philadelphia at Washington: The Nationals and Patrick Corbin are -115 over Moore and the Phillies and I have the Phillies -170, but will stay away from the side in this one and make a rare totals play and take the over 9.5 (-105). This is only about our fifth totals play of the year and we’re 2-2 on them so far. This one opened at 8.5 and quickly shot up and it’s not hard to see why, as both pitchers come into the game with ERA’s over 6. Neither bullpen is much to get excited about and you have to figure at least on of the starters will run into trouble early on.
San Diego at Arizona: Blake Snell and the Padres are -160 over Zac Gallen and the Diamondbacks a night after Arizona allowed a ninth-inning run to make our Arizona +1.5 a loser after the Dbacks got themselves back into the game. Snell has been a strange pitcher this season, starting out horribly on the road, but he has turned it around a bit and the Padres are now allowing 3.0 runs with him on the mound away from home since June 1. I have the Padres -200 in this one and take a stab on Snell to keep his momentum away from home going.
Houston at Seattle: The Astros beat us last night with a pair of runs in the eighth inning to take a 4-3 win and now send Lance McCullers to the hill where he is -160 over Kikuchi and the Mariners. McCullers has pitched his best away from home, with the Astros allowing just 2.75 runs per game in his road starts since June 1. Seattle is allowing 4.83 runs at home with Kikuchi on the hill since June 1, which isn’t a good thing against a Houston team average 5.73 runs on the road against left-handed starters over the past three months. Will go ahead and take a shot on the Astros -160 in this one.
Pittsburgh at White Sox: Lucas Giolito and the Sox are -350 over Wilson and the Pirates in a game where the line is simply too high. The Sox are allowing 5.33 runs at home with Giolito on the mound since June 1, while the Pirates are allowing 3.33 runs with Wilson on the road. A big hitting edge to Chicago, but I made them relatively small favorites in this one.
Record: 114-150 (-15.48)
A few more games than normal for a Monday and a decent slate, so we’ll get after it. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Houston at Seattle: Garcia and the Astros are -153 over Chris Flexen and the Mariners and I have Seattle -143, so will go ahead and take Seattle +143. In all honesty, I don’t believe I’ve won a single game at +143 all season and can think of at least a dozen that I’ve lost off the top of my head, but think the price is simply too high against a pitcher who has allowed 2.75 runs per game at home since June 1. The Astros are 26-26 after a loss this season and 9-8 as an away favorite after a setback. Seattle is 17-7 with Flexen on the mound this season.
San Diego at Arizona: Chris Paddack and the Padres are -180 over Gilbert and the Diamondbacks and I have Arizona -141, so will take Arizona +1.5 at (-105). This is much like yesterday’s play on the Rangers, where I bet Texas on both the moneyline and the runline but used the run line for here. The Padres have basically stunk it up on the road lately, going 11-22 since June 1. They’re equally bad against right-handers and left-handers, going 8-16 against RHP and 3-6 when facing a southpaw. Arizona is 13-15 at home against right-handed pitchers since June 1. Gilbert threw his no-hitter against the Padres last time out, so a little hesitant, but will just follow the numbers.
Atlanta at Los Angeles Dodgers: Julio Urias and the Dodgers are -210 over Drew Smyly and the Braves and I have Atlanta -105, but a couple of tough trends Atlanta has to overcome in this one. Road underdogs off a victory as a home favorite are just 5-18 this season when playing with no rest. The Braves are 10-1 on the road against left-handers since June 1 and 9-0 with Smyly on the mound away from home, so awfully tempted to give the Braves a look. Smyly has gotten plenty of support in those nine games, however, as the Braves are scoring 7.89 runs per game and have scored 6 runs or more in seven of those nine games. Urias has pitched well for the Dodgers, with LA going 11-3 in those games and have won his last four starts.
Record: 114-148 (-13.43)
The Indians let us down in extra innings last night, giving up three runs in the top of the 10th and then could only score one after loading the bases with no outs in the bottom of the inning to lose 5-3. Another slate that isn’t the greatest, so two plays for the day. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
San Francisco at Atlanta: Ian Anderson and the Braves have moved from -120 to -130 despite getting only about one-third of the wagers in the game, so will tag along here and take Atlanta -130. There isn’t a huge scoring edge to the Giants here, as San Francisco scores .33 more runs against right-handed starters on the road than the Braves do at home. The Braves are 6-2 with Anderson at home and he has shown an ability to bounce back from a poor start in the past.
Houston at Texas: Zack Greinke and the Astros are -213 over Hearn and the Rangers, which is a bit on the high side, as I made Houston -163. Hearn has pitched a little better after his first start of the season, while Greinke is still himself and is facing the Rangers for the fourth time this season. The Rangers have had their chances against him but haven’t come up with the key hit when needed. I’m taking Texas on the money line and run line but for the article will play the Rangers +1.5 at +115.
New York Yankees at Oakland: The Yankees and Montgomery are -140 over Blackburn and the A’s in a game that the A’s are again seeing some action, much as they did yesterday. The line hasn’t really moved despite the Yankees getting close to 70% of the wagers, as the money wagered is pretty much down the middle. Tough one to play.
St. Louis at Pittsburgh: The Cardinals and Kwang Hyun Kim are -160 over Wil Crowe and the Pirates and I made St. Louis -251. The Pirates are 4-11 at home against left-handed pitchers since June 1 and face a tough one in Kim, who has allowed just 2.75 runs in last four road starts since June 1. St. Louis gets the nod in scoring and has a decent pitching advantage in this one. The line has dropped a little bit here despite the Cardinals being hit by the public pretty good.
Record: 112-148 (-15.58)
Another fairly tough slate of games today, so just another single play. As always, lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Boston at Cleveland: Nathan Eovaldi and the Red Sox are -140 over Cal Quantrill and the Indians, while I made Cleveland -217, so will take the Tribe +130 in this one. Since June 1, the Sox are averaging 4.14 runs against right-handed starters on the road and have gone 12-9. The Indians are 13-9 at home against right-handers and are scoring 5.27 runs per game. Eovaldi hasn’t been very good on the road lately, with Boston allowing 5.71 runs per game when he takes the mound, while Cleveland is allowing 3.5 runs at home when Quantrill starts, so will have to take the home underdog in this matchup.
Cincinnati at Miami: Solid pitching matchup here between Vladimir Gutierrez and Sandy Alcantara and this one is -105 both ways. The Fish are just 1-5 with Alcantara on the mound at home since June 1 despite allowing just 3.5 runs per game. The Reds are 7-1 with Gutierrez on the hill away from home, allowing 3.0 runs per game, so not a huge difference in the pitchers. The Reds are 16-9 on the road against right-handed starts, while Miami is 15-12 against right-handers at home since June 1. I’d have the Reds as -146 favorites, but no real interest in playing the game.
New York Yankees at Oakland: The big news here isn’t that the Yankees have won 13 straight, it’s that we’ve seen a pretty good line move in favor of the A’s, as the line has gone from Yankees -111 to Oakland -115 with Frankie Montas starting against Cortes. I have New York -170 but another one with no real interest playing the game.
Toronto at Detroit: Manaoh and the Jays are -195 over Jose Urena and the Tigers, while I have Toronto -165. After being rocked in his previous five starts, Urena turned around and threw three scoreless innings last start, but he hasn’t gone five innings in his last six starts. As bad as the Tigers are, they have gone 11-11 at home against right-handed starters since June 1, while the Jays are 10-12 against right-handers away from home over that time span. Manoah has thrown better at home than he has on the road, but can’t take a team in Detroit who has such an inconsistent starter. Detroit is 4-4 with Urena on the mound at home, allowing 4 runs or less in four games and 8 runs or more in the other four. The Tigers have allowed 15 runs twice when Urena starts at home and have also shutout teams twice.
Record: 112-147 (-14.58)
The Oakland A’s came up a run short last night, rallying from an early deficit to tie the score, only to allow a run in the ninth and fall 7-6. This is one of the worst cards from a handicapping perspective this season, so hopefully tomorrow looks a little better.
Tampa Bay at Baltimore: Shane McClanahan and the Rays are -216 against Matt Harvey and the Orioles, while I have Tampa Bay -280, so will go ahead and take TB -1.5 (-150). The Rays are averaging 6.0 runs against right-handed starters on the road since June 1 and have scored 5 or more runs in 11 of their last 12 games against a right-handed starter on the road. The Rays dropped McClanahan’s first four road starts beginning in June – against the Yankees, White Sox, Mariners and Blue Jays – teams all above .500 and then waxed the Orioles and Twins in his last two road starts and see no reason why they don’t do so again. The Orioles are 2-5 in Harvey’s seven home starts since June 1, losing by an average of 3.4 runs. Baltimore has scored nine runs in its last four home games against a left-handed pitcher, so will take a stab on the Rays in this one.
Cincinnati at Miami: The Reds and Wade Miley are -140 against Zach Thompson and the Fish in a game that I have Miami -131, due to Miley’s struggles on the road. Miley has been a completely different pitcher at home – where the Reds are 7-0 and allow 3.0 runs per game – compared to the road, where the Reds are 3-4 and allow 5.57 runs per game. His record would be even worse if the Reds hadn’t won two of those games despite allowing 7.0 runs in both. The Marlins are 3-3 in Thompson’s six home starts since June 1, allowing 3.5 runs per game and allowing between 2 and 5 runs in all six games. Want to take Miami but can’t quite pull the trigger here, with the Reds going 15-9 on the road against right-handed starters and the Marlins being 5-7 at home against southpaws. The Marlins are 3-7 in their last 10 home games as a home underdog, while the Reds have gone 4-4 as a road favorite in the same time span. Tough one to play, but would take Miami if I absolutely had to play it.
Record: 111-147 (-15.58)
A split on the diamond yesterday, as the Tigers had their chances, but squandered too many opportunities, hitting into three double plays and going 2 for 15 with runners in scoring position, but that’s part of baseball. As always, lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
New York Yankees at Oakland: Jameson Taillon and the Yankees are -111 over Kaprielian and the Athletics and I made Oakland -190, so am going to take Oakland +101 in this one. The Yankees are 16-7 on the road against right-handed pitchers since June 1, averaging 4.43 runs per game, while the A’s have gone 13-8 at home against right-handed pitchers, scoring 4.81 runs in the process. The Yankees are allowing 4.57 runs per game with Taillon on the road since June 1, but have averaged 6.86 runs in those games, so they’ve managed to go 5-2. The A’s are 5-2 with Kaprielian at home in the same time span, but are allowing just 2.0 runs per game, so like the home team to get the win in this one.
Chicago White Sox are Toronto Blue Jays: This one is -105 with Carlos Rodon getting the start for the White Sox and Ryu taking the mound for the Jays. We got the win going against the Sox last night due to their recent struggles against left-handed starters and Ray was impressive with 14 strikeouts in just seven innings. But it could be a little different in this one, as Ryu has struggled some as of late, with the Blue Jays allowing 5.71 in his home starts since June 1 and nearly 5 runs in all of his starts since June 1 regardless of location. Rodon has been solid on the road since June 1, with the Sox allowing just 2.5 runs when he takes the mound, so probably a good contest to just stay away from.
San Francisco at New York Mets: The Giants keep rolling along and Alex Wood is -121 road favorite in this one against Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco had a much better outing against the Dodgers last time on the mound than he did when Los Angeles roughed him up in New York, but has had two good starts and two poor ones since returning to action. The Mets struggle against left-handed pitchers and are averaging just 2.5 runs against southpaws at home since June 1.
Record: 111-146 (-14.58)
The typical Wednesday slate, with a few more day games than normal, as some teams will be taking flights tonight to get to the location of their next series. A couple of interesting games, along with a couple that don’t have lines yet. As always, lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Chicago White Sox are Toronto: Robbie Ray and the Blue Jays are -121 over Lucas Giolito and the White Sox, while I have Toronto -220, so will go ahead and take the Blue Jays in this one. Everyone knows the White Sox are strong against left-handed pitchers, but that notion isn’t really holding weight any longer. Since June 1, the Sox are 1-5 on the road against left-handed starters and are averaging 3.5 runs per game. In those six games, they’ve scored five runs against Tarik Skubal on two occasions, splitting those two games, but managed two or three runs in the four other games against the likes of Kris Bubic, Mike Minor, Framber Valdez and Tyler Anderson. Decent pitchers, but not what you would call aces. The Blue Jays are 17-12 at home against right-handed starters since June 1, scoring 5.0 runs per game. Likewise, they’ve faced some strong pitchers, along with some relatively weak starters. The Sox are allowing 4.38 runs per game in Giolito’s road starts since June 1, while the Jays have allowed 3.38 runs at home when Ray is on the mound. The Blue Jays’ bats have been a little quiet lately, but think they can score enough to get the win in this one.
Detroit at St. Louis: Jon Lester and the Cardinals are -125 over Tarik Skubal and the Tigers and I have Detroit -218, so will take the Tigers +115 in this one. The Tigers are 8-6 on the road against left-handed pitchers since June 1, scoring 5.71 runs per game. They’ve scored 5 or more runs in seven of those games. The Cardinals are 5-5 at home against left-handed starters since June 1, scoring 5 or more runs twice and 4 runs on three occasions. Detroit is 3-2 with Skubal on the road since June 1, allowing 4.2 runs per game, while Lester’s teams have allowed 4.8 runs per game when he pitches since June 1. He’s had four starts with the Cardinals and St. Louis has allowed 6 runs twice and 4 runs in the other two games. Three of those games were at home and St. Louis is 1-2 in those games.
Record: 110-145 (-14.58)
Decent-sized slate of MLB games on tap for Tuesday, although not really a great schedule from a handicapping perspective. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Kansas City at Houston: Garcia and the Astros are -219 over Singer and the Royals, while I have the Astros -270, so going to take Houston -1.5 (-120) in this one. The Royals are 7-20 on the road against right-handed starters since June 1, scoring 3.63 runs per game. The Astros are 15-9 at home against righties since June 1 and are averaging 5.42 runs per contest. Singer has pitched a little better on the road lately, as the Royals allow just 4.33 runs when he takes the hill, but Houston is allowing 2.17 runs when Garcia starts at home since June 1.
Arizona at Pittsburgh: Madison Bumgarner and the Diamondbacks are -115 over JT Brubaker and the Pirates and I have Arizona -190, as the Diamondbacks seek their first win as a road favorite all season. This is just the second time they’ve been favored away from home this year. Bumgarner has pitched decently on the road since June 1 and you can’t say the same about Brubaker, as the Pirates are 1-5 in his home starts since June 1, allowing 5.0 runs per game. He’s a better pitcher than that and can’t lay a price with an Arizona team that is 5-18 on the road against right-handed starters since June 1. The Pirates are 3-9 at home against lefties in that same time span, so they’re no bargain either.
Cincinnati at Milwaukee: Burnes and the Brewers are up to -203 over Tyler Mahle and the Reds and the price is a bit too high in this one, as there isn’t a huge difference in the offense of the two teams and I have the Brewers -155. The Reds are 15-7 on the road against right-handers since June 1 and average 5.27 runs, while the Brewers are 17-10 at home against RHP and are scoring 5.37 runs per game. The Reds have gone 4-2 with Mahle on the road and allow 3.0 runs per game, with two of those games against the Brewers. The Reds won 2-1 and then lost 5-3, so he’s also allowing 3.0 runs against Milwaukee. The Brewers are 5-0 with Burnes on the mound at home since June 1, allowing 2.0 runs per game. Tough game to call.
Record: 109-145 (-15.58)
Small slate of games for Monday and a few of them still without lines, so pretty slim pickings today. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Chicago White Sox at Toronto: Lance Lynn and the White Sox are -111 over Manoah and the Blue Jays and I made Toronto -121, so will take a shot on the Jays here. The White Sox are coming off a trip to Tampa that saw them lose two out of three and now face a Toronto team looking to bounce back after a setback at the hands of the Tigers. Toronto is just the second team all season to lose as a home favorite of -180 or more and then be a home underdog in their next game. The offenses are pretty even here, with Chicago scoring 4.97 runs per game against right-handed pitchers on the road since June 1 and the Jays scoring 5.22 at home, although they have cooled off a little bit, scoring 3 runs in each of their last three home games. Lynn is having a solid season, with the Sox 4-1 in his road start since June 1 and allowing 3.4 runs per game, while the Jays are 4-1 with Manoah on the mound at home, allowing 3.2 runs per game. Lynn has only gone 4 and 5 innings his last two starts, while Manoah was roughed up a bit last game. The numbers are all pretty even, but the situation favors the home team a little bit, so will ride with the Jays +101 for the only play of the day.
Colorado at Chicago Cubs: Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs are -125 over Senzatela and the Rockies, while I have the Cubs -160. The Rockies are great at home, but stink it up on the road, as Colorado is 5-17 against RHP on the road since June 1. Senzatela plays a large part of that, with Colorado 0-6 in this road starts, where they’ve allowed more than 6 runs per game. The Cubs are 9-15 at home against right-handers since June 1, but just 2-13 since July 1, so impossible to pull the trigger on the Cubbies as they look to have packed it in. Even Hendricks, who was decent at home earlier in the year has fallen apart a bit, with the Cubs allowing 35 runs in his last four starts at home. They did score 26 runs in those games to go 2-2, however, but you can’t always count on that happening. Pass.
Record: 108-145 (-16.59)
Pretty much the standard Sunday schedule, with all the day games and the lone night game of the day is the Angels and the Indians in a bit of a surprise considering the Dodgers and Mets are playing, but guess that ESPN wants to feature Ohtani. As always, lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Atlanta at Baltimore: Toussaint and the Braves are -157 against John Means and the Orioles, while I have Atlanta -318, so will go ahead and take the Braves here. Atlanta is 9-1 on the road against left-handed pitchers since June 1, averaging a little more than 7 runs per game. Baltimore is 6-12 at home against right-handed pitchers since June 1, scoring 4.83 runs per game, which is a little above the league average, but Toussaint has thrown well at a reasonable price.
Miami at Cincinnati: Vladimir Gutierrez and the Reds are -140 over Sandy Alcantara and the Reds, while I have this one at Reds -158. Both teams are pretty close to being average offensively against right-handers since June 1, but both pitchers have been pretty solid, so taking a shot on the under 9 (-115) in this one. Since June 1, the Fish are 3-5 in Alcantara’s away games, allowing 3.88 runs, which does include the 14 runs allowed at Colorado. The Reds are 7-7-1 in totals when Vladimir pitches, but have scored an average of 6.13 runs and think it will be a little tougher to get the offense going against Alcantara.
Detroit at Toronto: Steven Matz and the Blue Jays are -245 against Drew Hutchison and the Tigers and I have it a little closer at Toronto -137, although it’s tough to get a read of Hutchison in this one, as he’s had just one MLB start since 2018 and he was hit pretty hard. Matz hasn’t pitched as well as he did in the early going of the season and is allowing more than 6.0 runs per game at home between Buffalo and Toronto, wherever the Jays were playing. The Tigers hit left-handers pretty well, even though their bats have been kept quiet the first two games against the Jays, but think they can plate some runs against Matz and expecting Toronto to do the same against Hutchison, so going to take a stab on the over 10.5 (-110) in this one.
Record: 106-144 (-17.49)
A split of our two games on Friday and now the typical Saturday fare, with a number of day games, along with a few games under the lights. Quite a few over-priced favorites today, but I still have them winning, so will be staying away from those and just have one play for the day. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay: Luis Patino and the Rays are -130 over Dallas Keuchel and the White Sox and I made Tampa -200, so will come right back with the Rays after they let me down last night. The two offenses are pretty comparable, with the Sox scoring 5.19 runs on the road against right-handers since June 1, while the Rays are scoring 5.06 runs per game at home against left-handed pitchers. The big difference here is the pitchers, with the Sox allowing 5.6 runs in Keuchel’s road starts since June 1 and the Rays, allowing 3.0 runs with Patino at home.
Arizona at Colorado: Kyle Freeland and the Rockies jut dropped to -140 over Zac Gallen, which is a bit strange considering the Diamondbacks are 1-8 on the road against LHP since June 1, while the Rockies are 19-5 at home against right-handers over the same span. Freeland has won his last two home starts despite the Rockies allowing 6 and 8 runs in those two games. Arizona has allowed at least five runs in each of Gallen’s last five road starts and he’s labored this season but does have better stuff than he’s showed. Would like to take the Rockies here, but this line seems a little too low and raises a bit of a flag.
Atlanta at Baltimore: Drew Smyly and the Braves have dropped from -195 to -180 in the last hour, which is another head scratcher, as Atlanta is 8-0 in Smyly’s last eight road games, where they allow 3.62 runs per game. The Orioles are 10-14 with Harvey on the mound this season, which has shown a slight profit since he’s been the underdog in 23 of 24 starts. Harvey has come close to being released a few times this season but has managed to do just enough to keep himself in the majors. He has thrown a little bit better on the road this season, but will just stay away from this one.
Record: 105-144 (-18.49)
Caught a break on Wednesday when Irvin didn’t start for the A’s, but then he came back to win on Thursday when we would have come right back with him as a big dog against the White Sox, so it all washed out in the end. Back after having pretty much a state-wide internet outage with our provider and then having a lizard fry the defrost circuit board on the AC while waiting for the internet to come back up. All-in-all a lousy day. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
White Sox at Tampa Bay: Lucas Giolito and the Sox are -121 over Michael Wacha and the Rays, while I made Tampa -165, so will take the Rays +110 in this one. Tampa is 15-2 at home against right-handed starters since June 1, while the Sox are 15-11 on the road when facing a right-handed starter. Wacha has been roughed up a little bit lately, but has pitched a little better at home, allowing 2.83 runs since June 1 and giving up 6.0 runs on the road. Giolito has been a pitcher we backed plenty the past few season s, but he’s now pretty much overpriced each start and I believe we’ve gone against him more than on him this season. Chicago is 6-6 when he starts on the road and 3-4 since June 1, so not so sure the Sox should be favored here, especially against a team that has gone 24-9 at home since June 1.
San Francisco at Oakland: Alex Wood and the Giants are -121 against Kapriellan and the Athletics and I made Oakland -185, so will take the A’s +110 for the last play of the day. The Giants are 17-11 on the road since June 1 and have gone 13-7 away against right-handed starters. Oakland has gone 4-3 against southpaws at home since June 1. The Giants are 3-1 with Wood on the mound away from home since June 1, but they have allowed 4 or more runs in all four of those games. They’ve averaged 7.75 runs in those games, but might find things a bit tougher against Kapriellan, who has allowed 2.33 runs per game at home and has allowed a season-high of 5.0 runs. Things there’s a bit of value on the home dog in this one, so will take the A’s over their local rivals.
Record: 104-143 (-18.59)
This has gotten to be frustrating, along with a little embarrassing. The method has worked the past four seasons, so not quite ready to give up on it yet, but did make a little tweak and use games from June 1 onward, so a little difference in the numbers and a lot of plays, which is a bit scary considering how things have gone the last seven weeks. Lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
San Diego at Colorado: Jake Arrieta was picked up the Padres and gets the start today against Chi Chi Gonzalez and the Padres are -125, while I have the Rockies -137 and will take the home dog +115. The Padres are a surprising 7-15 on the road against right-handed starters since June 1, while the Rockies are 18-5 at home against right-handers.
Atlanta at Miami: Charlie Morton and the Braves just climbed from -210 to -219 and I have the Braves -358, so will take Atlanta -1.5 (-130). The Braves are 7-1 on the road against left-handed pitchers and are allowing just 2.17 runs per game with Morton on the mound away from home since June 1.
Milwaukee at St. Louis: Peralta and the Brewers are -121 over the Cards and Flaherty and I have the Brewers -278, so will take Milwaukee at the short price. The Brewers are 21-7 on the road against right-handers since June 1 and Peralta has been solid.
Los Angels Angels at Detroit: Ohtani and the Angels are -135 over Tarik Skubal and the Tigers and I have Detroit -180, so will take Skubal and the Tigers +125. Detroit is 5-2 with Skubal on the mound at home since June 1, allowing just 2.71 runs per game. The Angels are 7-7 on the road against southpaws, while Detroit is 11-10 at home against right handers.
Oakland at White Sox: Lance Lynn and the Sox are -190 over Irvin and the A’s and I made Oakland -137, so will take the A’s +170 in this one. There isn’t a huge difference in the offensive numbers between the two teams, but Irvin has allowed fewer runs on the road than Lynn has allowed at home since June 1.
Toronto at Washington: Jose Berrios and the Blue Jays are -160 over Josiah Gray and the Nats and I have Washington -171, so will take the home dog +150 here. Berrios has struggled away from home this season, allowing 5.6 runs and Toronto is just 10-10 against RHP on the road, while the Nats are 12-8 against right-handers since June 1, averaging 5.3 runs per game.
Record: 100-142 (-22.24)