Free Expert MLB Picks Of The Day: 09/21/20

Free Expert MLB Picks Of The Day: 09/21/20

A couple of games without lines yet, as we’re still trying to claw our way back into the black after a slump in a season that has seen favorites across the board show a flat-bet profit with a 478-298 record entering today.

Texas at LA Angels: The Angels and Dylan Bundy are -195 over Kyle Gibson and the Rangers, which is too high considering Bundy has thrown better away from home this year. I have the Angels -116 here in a rematch of a game 11 days ago when Bundy defeated Gibson 6-2 in Texas.

Philadelphia at Washington: The Phillies and Zack Wheeler are -157 over Anibal Sanchez and the Nats, while I have it at -140. Wheeler hasn’t been as effective on the road, but a combination of Sanchez with poor numbers and the Nats’ 3-13 record against RHP at home will keep me off Washington.

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland: Good pitching matchup here with Dane Dunning and Aaron Civale with the Sox -111. I have Cleveland -102 so this one is basically a toss-up.

Milwaukee at Cincinnati: Luis Castillo and the Reds are -125 over Brandon Woodruff and I have Cincinnati at -116.

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh: Jon Lester and JT Brubaker are the expected starters here in a game where there is no line yet. I have the Cubs -138 against the Pirates, who have one of the strangest lines I’ve ever seen. The Pirates are 1-9 against left-handed starters this year, but 8-2 on the run line vs. LHP. They’ve lost their last five games against southpaws by one run.

Miami at Atlanta: The Braves and Ynoa are -172 over Trevor Rogers and the Fish, while I have Miami -121, so will take a shot on the Marlins for the usual .2 units to win .31.

Tampa Bay at NY Mets: Jacob deGrom and Peter Fairbanks are the likely starters here, although Josh Fleming will come in early for the Rays. There’s no line here at most shops, although the Mets are going to be huge favorites and I have it a lot closer at NY -113. The Rays could be worth a look, as they’re 7-5 as underdogs this year.

St. Louis at Kansas City: Adam Wainwright is pitching well and the Cards are -157 against the Royals and Carlos Hernandez. I’m pretty much right there, with St. Louis -155.

Houston at Seattle: Lance McCullers and the Astros are -145 against Marco Gonzales and the Mariners. McCullers hasn’t fared well on the road this season, with Houston allowing 4 or more runs in all four of his away starts, so I have Seattle -106 and will take a shot on the Mariners +135 for .2 units.

Record: 38-55 (-.42)

 

9/20/20

Heading the wrong direction with the baseball plays and need a strong, although it won’t be today, as today’s card is pretty dismal from the perspective of underdogs.

St. Louis at Pittsburgh: Jack Flaherty and Joe Musgrove get the starts in this one, which has St. Louis -160. I have the Cardinals -190 in this one.

White Sox at Reds: The Reds are getting some sharp play this morning, as the line has moved from -105 both ways to Reds -125 even though Dylan Cease and the Sox are getting the majority of the wagers against Lorenzen. I have this one even.

Atlanta at Mets: The Mets are now -121 with Porcello and Kyle Wright getting the starts and I have it -102 for the Mets.

Cleveland at Detroit: Carlos Carrasco and the Tribe is -195 over Matthew Boyd and the Tigers, while I have it a little bit closer at -148 for Cleveland.

NY Yankees at Boston: Deivi Garcia and the Yanks have been bet up to -190 against the Red Sox and Houck and I have New York -128. Tanner Houck has just the one start and it’s hard to read too terribly much into that.

Kansas City at Milwaukee: Josh Lindblom and the Brewers are -145 over Brad Keller and the Royals and I have Kansas City -143 so will take a shot on the Royals +135 for the usual .2 units.

Arizona at Houston: The Astros and Urquidy are -195 in this one against Bumgarner, who has been brutal for Arizona. I have this one at -197 for Houston and there are some strong trends for the under 9.5.

Minnesota at Cubs: Darvish is -153 over Jose Berrios in a game I was hoping to have the Twins due to the price, but I have the Cubs -138 so it becomes an easy pass.

Dodgers at Colorado: Tony Gonsolin and the Dodgers are -203 against Antonio Senzatela and I made LA -260 in this one.

San Francisco at Oakland: The A’s have been bet up to -177 in this battle of southpaws and I have Oakland -188 here.

San Diego at Seattle: Dinelson Lamet and the Padres are all the way up to -270 and I have San Diego -171 here. Toyed with Seattle on the run line but will stay clear.

Texas at Angels: A little surprised to see Teheran get the start here, as he’s been brutal and the Angels should just shut him down for the remainder of the season. Kyle Cody has been a little better than average for the Rangers, who haven’t hit much this year, but should score some against Teheran. The Angels are -135 and I have Texas -103, so will take the Rangers for the usual .20 units.

Record: 37-54 (-.47)

 

9/19/20

We’ve been up-and-down here the past month, having a decent day then following that up with a couple of crappy ones. Once again, we’re on the downside and find ourselves in the red as was the case last Sunday. A bit of a tough card on this day, however, with a few pitchers not yet listed, so we’ll work with what we have.

Washington at Miami: Patrick Corbin has thrown a little better than his record, while Lopez has been a better pitcher at home for the Fish. The Marlins are -115 in this one and I have Miami -171.

Cleveland at Detroit: Triston McKenzie and Spencer Turnbull get the starts in this one and McKenzie has come back down to earth a little bit in his last few starts, while Turnbull has been tough at home. The Indians are -190 and I have Cleveland -115.

St. Louis at Pittsburgh: The Cardinals are -160 in this one and I have Kim -160 over Mitch Keller, so right on the line of this one.

Kansas City at Milwaukee: Burnes and the Brewers are -203 over Bubic and the Royals and I’m right in the same ballpark, having the Brewers -210.

Arizona at Houston: Cristian Javier and the Astros are -157 against Luke Weaver and the Diamondbacks and I made Houston -171 in this spot.

Atlanta at NY Mets: Ian Anderson and the Braves are –145 at the Mets, who will start David Peterson and I made the Braves -140 in this one.

Texas at LA Angels: Andrew Heaney and the Angels are -157 over Lance Lynn and the Rangers in this one and Lynn is having a solid season, but has been better at home this season. As a result, I have the Angels -171 in a spot I was hoping to be able to take the Rangers.

LA Dodgers at Colorado: One of the biggest pitching mismatches so far this season, Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers are -290 over Chi Chi Gonzalez and the Rockies. The line is big but can see why it’s there, as I have the Dodgers -300.

Minnesota at Chicago: Michael Pineda and the Twins are -130 at the Cubs, who see Alec Mills start for the first time since his no-hitter. A lot of people expecting a letdown by Mills, but I have Chicago -122, so will take a shot on the Cubs +120 for .20 units.

San Diego at Seattle: Mike Clevinger and the Padres are -190 and I made San Diego -177. Clevinger has been solid since coming over from the Indians.

Record: 37-53 (-.27)

 

 

9/18/20

We couldn’t hang on to a pair of early two and three runs leads Thursday, dropping both dog plays, and then making things worse by passing on the Mets even though I had them favored. Onto Friday, where it’s the usual lack of games with odds posted due to starters not being listed.

Tampa Bay at Baltimore: Tyler Glasnow is -210 over Alex Cobb and the Orioles are killing it as home underdogs this year, going 12-11 straight-up after winning five of their last six in that role. Cobb finally got a win against his former team earlier this year, but is still just 1-4 in games started against the Rays. I have this one a little closer than oddsmakers with Tampa -1230.

Cleveland at Detroit: Zach Plesac and Michael Fulmer get the starts here and the Tribe is -195 at William Hill, while I have Cleveland -245. Teams who won their last game by at least 7 runs have been decent bets as favorites, going 40-22, but horrible wagers as dogs, where they’re 11-20 after losing the last 10 in a row.

Arizona at Houston: Zack Greinke and the Astros are -160 over Zac Gallen and the Diamondbacks and I’m pretty much the same, having the ‘Stros -163.

Kansas City at Milwaukee: Adrian Houser and the Brewers are -140 against the Royals and Danny Duffy. Duffy has been solid on the road but hasn’t gotten much run support, although I have Kansas city -147 in this one so will take the Royals +130 for the standard .2 units.

Minnesota at Chicago Cubs: Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs are -130 over Rich Hill and the Twins, which seems a little cheap, as I have the Cubs -175. Hill has been decent his last two starts, but is still only going five innings and Hendricks has been better at home throughout his career. The Cubs are 56-32 in games he starts at Wrigley Field and 50-42 when he starts on the road.

San Diego at Seattle: Chris Paddack and the Padres are -172 over Yusei Kikuchi and the Mariners and I have the Mariners -123, so will take Seattle for .2 units to win .31. Paddack is another who has been better at home, with San Diego going 11-5 with him on the mound at home and 7-13 when he starts on the road. Kikuchi allowed three runs in five innings at San Diego last month.

Record: 37-51 (+.13)

 

 

9/17/20

Quite a few games without lines and listed pitchers, so we’ll look at the games where we have both and we’ll have a few plays despite the limited number of games we can go over this morning.

Arizona at Los Angeles Angels: Griffin Canning gets the start against Alex Young in this one and the Angels are -157 at William Hill. The Angels have hit left-handed pitchers better than they have right-handers this season, so I have the Angels -168.

NY Mets at Philadelphia: The Phillies and Aaron Nola and are -125 over Seth Lugo and the Mets in this one. The Mets roughed up Nola last time he faced them, allowing 6 runs in 5.33 innings, although three of the runs were unearned and he fanned 10 in his time on the hill. He pitched seven scoreless innings against them at home in August. Lugo has four starts this year since being moved into the rotation and he’s thrown well, although New York is just 1-3 in those games. I have the Mets -106 in this one.

Texas at Houston: Jordan Lyles and Framber Valdez get the starts in this one, where the Astros are -245 at home. Valdez has cooled off a little after a fast start, so I made Houston -198.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado: Julio Urias and the Dodgers are -160 against Kyle Freeland and the Rockies and I have Colorado -118, so will take the Rockies +150 for the usual .20 units. The Dodgers are 4-5 in the nine games Urias has started and 1-4 in the last five, while the Rockies are 4-2 in the six home games Freeland has started. Freeland’s numbers are better on the road, as is the case with most Colorado pitchers.

San Francisco at Seattle: The Giants and Tyler Anderson are -140 over the Mariners and Nick Margevicius, who was off to a good start to the season until his last start against the Giants, when he allowed seven runs in 4.67 innings in a 10-1 loss. He walked three batters in that game after walking just 5 in 22 innings throughout August. Tyler Anderson has had a pair of decent starts this year, both of which were at home and the Giants have allowed at least 6 runs in all of his away starts this season. On Aug. 22, Anderson was the winning pitcher against Arizona in a 5-1 decision. Six days later the same matchup took place in Arizona and the Diamondbacks won 7-4, so a similar situation here and I’ll take a shot on the Mariners +130.

Record: 37-49 (+.53)

 

9/16/20

Was way off the mark last night and we have a pretty decent slate of games for Wednesday, so we’ll get to it.

Washington at Tampa Bay: Voth and Fleming are the listed starters in this one, although it looks like Fairbanks may get the call for the Rays and then give way to Fleming early. Either way, the Rays are -172 and I have them -168.

Oakland at Colorado: The Rockies and German Marquez are -120 over Mike Fiers and I have the A’s -155, so will take Oakland +110 for the standard .2 units. The A’s are 7-2 when Fiers starts this season.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: Luis Castillo and the Reds are -216 over JT Brubaker and the Pirates, while I made the Reds -228.

Boston at Miami: The Fish are -135 with Rogers on the hill against Kickham and I have Miami at -130.

Atlanta at Baltimore: Cole Hamels sees some action here and he and the Braves are -172 over Keegan Akin and the Orioles. Akin has a couple of decent starts but was hit hard last time out. I made Atlanta -139.

Toronto at NY Yankees: Gerrit Cole and the Yanks are -260 over Tanner Roark and the Jays and I have NY -195.

NY Mets at Philadelphia: Jacob deGrom and the Mets are -140 over the Phillies in this one, which has Aaron Nola listed for the Phils, although I’ve seen Wheeler also being mentioned at a couple of places. I have the Mets -155 over Nola.

Kansas City at Detroit: Brady Singer and the Royals are -130 over Tarik Skubal and the Tigers, while I have Detroit -114. Skubal has five starts and two of them have been bad, while the other three haven’t been decent. His lone home start was a 4-2 win over the Twins, so will take the Tigers +120 for .2 units.

Minnesota at White Sox: Lucas Giolito is -145 over Jake Odorizzi, who has missed most of the season for the Twins. I have the Sox -170.

Texas at Houston: Lance McCullers and the Astros are -219 over Kyle Gibson and the Rangers and I have this one at -200 for Houston.

Cleveland at Cubs: Aaron Civale and the Tribe are -120 at Jon Lester and the Cubs and I have this one at Cleveland -125.

Arizona at Angels: Dylan Bundy and the Angels are -190 against Caleb Smith and Arizona, which is a bit high if Smith is back to himself. I have LA -165.

Record: 36-48 (+.51)

 

9/15/20

Lots of games on the schedule today, although it’s not the greatest of cards from a handicapping perspective, as I have the favorites winning and over 90% of our plays are on underdogs, probably closer to 95%. As always, we’ll make due with what we have and use the lines from William Hill.

Washington at Tampa Bay: John Curtiss will get the start for the Rays against Anibal Sanchez and we’ll see Curtiss for a few innings but probably no more. I made the Rays -213 here.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: Michael Lorenzen starts for the Reds against Joe Musgrave and the Pirates are just 5-12 on the road against RHP this season. The Reds are -130 in this one and I have them at -204.

Boston at Miami: Sandy Alcantara and the Marlins are -153 over Houck and the Red Sox. Can’t see laying that price on the Fish and I have them -138.

Toronto at NY Yankees: The Yanks are -153 over Taijuan Walker and the Jays and Walker has been stellar since coming over to Toronto. Still, I have Garcia and New York -157 here.

NY Mets at Philadelphia: Rick Porcello and the Mets are -125 against Jake Arrieta and the Phillies and both pitchers have struggled. The Mets have the edge in scoring in today’s location, so I have New York -147.

Kansas City at Detroit: Danny Duffy and Matthew Boyd get the starts in this one, which is -105 both ways. I made Detroit -105 here.

St. Louis at Milwaukee: Jack Flaherty and the Cardinals are -145 against Brett Anderson and the Brewers, while I made the Cards -157. Anderson was supposed to start a few days ago but was scratched.

Texas at Houston: Urquidy and the Astros are -190 over Kyle Cody and the Rangers and I have Houston -135.

Minnesota at Chicago White Sox: Dane Dunning is -130 over Randy Dobnak, as the line has climbed on Chicago this morning. I have the Sox -114.

Cleveland at Chicago Cubs: Carlos Carrasco and Yu Darvish go in a decent match-up in this one and the Cubs are -153. I have Darvish -114.

Oakland at Colorado: Sean Manaea and Antonio Senzatela get the starts in this one and I’m taking the over 11.5 (-115) for .23 units to win .20 for today’s play. Manea has been better at home, with the A’s allowing 2.88 runs in his starts dating back to last season and 4.33 when he starts on the road. This year, Oakland has allowed 24 runs in his four road starts. The Rockies have allowed 6.87 runs with Senzatela on the mound at home dating back to last year and 22 in his three home starts this year.

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego: Good game here with Tony Gonsolin and the Dodgers -125 against Zach Davies and the Padres. I have LA -110.

San Francisco at Seattle: The Giants are -130 with Tyler Anderson against Ljay Newsome and I made San Francisco -121.

Record: 36-47 (+.74)

 

9/14/20

A much-needed 4-1 day on Sunday, blowing a late lead in Colorado for our lone loss to move us back on the plus side after a couple dismal efforts. MLB was the only thing I didn’t stink in, however, going 0-2 in the NBA and splitting the two NFL plays.

Strange day today, with just a few lines posted, so as usual, we’ll do what we can with what we have to work with.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: The Reds are -260 in this one, with Trevor Bauer and Cody Ponce expected to get the starts in a rematch of a game 10 days ago when the Pirates beat the Reds 4-3. Ponce wasn’t spectacular, allowing three runs in four innings, but Pittsburgh did get the win. The line is a bit steep, as I have the Reds -168.

The second game of the doubleheader has Anthony DeSclafani and Mitch Keller scheduled to start, with the Reds -172. I have the Reds -110 in that one, although Keller will probably be on a short pitch count, having missed the last six weeks.

Atlanta at Baltimore: Toussaint and Jorge Lopez get the starts in this one and the Braves are -172. I have Atlanta -137 as neither pitcher has shown a whole lot yet and although Baltimore has improved their offense this season, Atlanta is still better in that department.

St. Louis at Milwaukee: There’s been a big move on the Brewers this morning, as the line has gone from St. Louis -110 to Milwaukee -115. Lindblom has brutal numbers this season, while Kim has looked solid, but is making his first start since Sept. 1.

The second game has Daniel Ponce De Leon and Corbin Burnes as the scheduled starters, but there’s no line out, although Milwaukee will be prohibitive favorites.

Minnesota at White Sox: Jose Berrios and the Twins have climbed to -135 in this one against Dylan Cease, who was lit up by the Twins last season, allowing 13 runs in 7 innings. But Cease is a much better pitcher this season than he was a year ago and Chicago is a better team. Still not totally enamored with this one even though I have Chicago -118, but there really isn’t anything else I like, so will make a token .1 unit play on Chicago to win .12 units.

Philadelphia at Miami: The Fish and Pablo Lopez are -135 over Vince Velasquez and the Phillies, while I have Miami -144 in this one, so an easy pass.

Record: 35-47 (+.62)

 

 

9/13/20

A couple more tough losses has us in the red for the first time since the start of the season, as the past couple of days have been brutal. Some of you had the Cubs game scratched due to the change in the Brewers pitcher, but will count it as a loss, as I did when that happened earlier in the season.

Despite the urge to change things up drastically, will just stay the course, although a fair number of games sneak in there as plays today.

Atlanta at Washington: The Nats and Max Scherzer are down to -160 against Kyle Wright and the Braves. I gave Washington too much credit for its recent scoring increase against RHP last night and it cost me. I have the Braves -110 here and will take Atlanta +150 for .2 units.

Baltimore at NY Yankees: JA Happ is -190 over John Means and I have it a little closer at Yanks -167. Means hasn’t pitched as bad as his numbers look.

Boston at Tampa Bay: Charlie Morton and the Rays are -190 over Martin Perez and the Sox, while I made Tampa Bay -148, with Perez doing a little better away from Fenway this season.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City: The Royals are -140 in this one with Keller and Kuhl getting the starts in a game where I have Kansas City -160 and think it’s a decent spot for the home team at a fairly cheap price.

Chicago at Milwaukee: Adrian Houser and the Brewers are -130 over Alec Mills and the Cubs. The Brewers get the edge on the mound but the Cubs get the offensive edge, so I have Chicago -124 and will take the Cubs +120 for .2 units.

Cincinnati at St. Louis: The Reds and Tyler Mahle are -111 at St. Louis and Carlos Martinez, who works his way back into pitching shape. The Reds don’t score much but Martinez hasn’t shown much yet this season.

Oakland at Texas: Frankie Montas and the A’s are -145 over Lance Lynn and the Rangers. The Rangers are struggling to score, but Lynn has been tough at home, so I made Texas -116 and will take the Rangers +135 for the standard .2 units.

Los Angeles Angels at Colorado: The Angels are up to -153 with Andrew Heaney getting the start against Ryan Castellani and I have the Rockies -171, with Colorado’s 9-3 record against LHP factoring into the equation. Will take the Rockies +143 for .20 units.

Cleveland at Minnesota: Michael Pineda and the Twins are -125 over Triston McKenzie and the Indians, while I made this one Twins -115.

Seattle at Arizona: Luke Weaver and the Diamondbacks are -145 over Justin Dunn and the Mariners. Weaver’s home numbers aren’t that impressive this season, so I have Seattle -110 and will take the Mariners +135 for .2 units.

Record: 31-46 (-.26)

 

 

9/12/20

A couple of tough losses last night, beginning with the dreaded one-run loss with the Pirates and a 5-run bottom of the ninth in Colorado to send us to a loss in that one as well, as our profits have nearly been completely eroded. Will look to get things turned around a little, but not the greatest card in the world, as I pretty much have nearly all of the favorites winning, so we’ll change it up a little and look at just a couple of games.

Seattle at Arizona: Interesting one from a handicapping perspective, as the Diamondbacks are -160 with a total of 8.5-over against Justus Sheffield and the Mariners. Sheffield has some ugly numbers, but he’s been pretty good more often than not. It’s inconsistency that is the biggest pet peave of any sports bettor. The Mariners have allowed three or fewer runs in four of Sheffield’s seven starts, but 10 or more runs in his other starts. The Diamondbacks typically give up three or four runs with Gallen on the mound, having allowed 3 or 4 runs in seven of his nine starts. If the good Sheffield shows up, the Mariners have a chance at a decent price, but if the guy who allows 10 runs is on the hill this one will be over early.

Atlanta at Washington: The Braves and Ian Anderson are -125 over Patrick Corbin and the Nationals, while this is one of the few dogs I have winning, so will take a chance on Washington +115 for .20 units to win. 23. After a slow start against RHP at home, the Nats have come to life a little bit, averaging 6 runs per game over the last six. They have faced a few decent starters in that span, such as Charlie Morton and Aaron Nola, so it wasn’t complete scrubs they were scoring against. The Braves just got to Corbin pretty good in Atlanta in his last start, so think he’ll have a better effort here.

Cubs at Milwaukee: The Cubs just jumped from -125 to -130 as I was typing this, with Kyle Hendricks taking the mound against Brett Anderson. I have the Cubs -110 but will take a shot on the Brewers +120 for .20 units to win .24 in this one. Anderson allowed two runs against the Cubs while pitching into the fifth inning last month and he typically gives you an honest effort on the mound, which is all you can ask for.

Record: 31-44 (+.14)

 

9/11/20

Strange day on Friday, as we just have a couple of games where we have listed starters and lines, so we’ll do what we can with what we have to work with. We’ll look at each game in a little more detail than normal due to the low number of games.

NY Mets at Toronto: Jacob deGrom and Chase Anderson get the starts in this one and the Mets have moved from -175 to -195 even though the betting has been pretty well split in the overnight wagers. The Mets are 6-2 with deGrom on the mound this season and they’ve won both of his road starts. The Jays are 2-4 with Anderson on the mound and 1-3 at home. New York is 5-7 on the road against RHP this season, while the Jays are 7-7 at home vs. RHP, but a decent pitching edge to the Mets. I have New York -135 here.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City: Battle of southpaws, with Steven Brault and Kris Bubic getting the starts and the Royals are -121. If there’s been a hard-luck pitcher this season Brault would be in the running, as the Pirates are 1-6 in his starts despite allowing just 3.57 runs per game. The Royals are even worse with Bubic on the hill, going 0-7 even though they allow 4.86 runs per game, which is just slightly higher than the league average of 4.72 runs. Pittsburgh is 1-8 against LHP this season, but are averaging 4.89 runs, although they’ve allowed 7.33. The Royals are 2-6 vs. LHP but averaging just 3.38 runs. I have Pittsburgh -122 here, so will take a shot on the Pirates +110 for the usual .2 units.

LA Angels at Colorado: German Marquez and the Rockies are -121 in this one against Griffin Canning and the Angels and I have LA -107, so will take the Angels +110 in this one. Marquez has been solid on the road, but has labored at home this year, while Canning has been better on the road than at home this year.

Oakland at Texas: The A’s and Mike Fiers face Jordan Lyles and the Rangers and Oakland is -175, while I have it a little bit closer at -145, so not a whole lot of value in this one. Fiers was on the mound here a few weeks ago in a 3-1 victory.

San Francisco at San Diego: Garrett Richards and the Padres are -153 over Johnny Cueto and the Giants, and I have San Diego -133. Cueto has looked better over his last four starts, with the Giants allowing 3.25 runs per game, and San Francisco is 6-3 with him on the hill this season.

Record: 31-42 (+.54)

 

9/10/20

After going 2-0 on Tuesday thought we might have had things straightened out, only to turn around and drop both dogs on Wednesday. The Orioles was a bit of a tough one – blowing a 5-1 lead, while the Mariners was just a bad play. We’re still holding our head above water, barely, and have a couple more dogs today.

Houston at Oakland: The A’s and Sean Manaea just hit -145 as I was getting ready to type this, with Sean Manaea and Jose Urquidy getting the starts. I made the A’s -140 in this one.

LA Angels at Texas: Dylan Bundy and the Angels are -160 over Kyle Gibson and the Rangers, while I have it a little higher at -183 for the Halos.

Kansas City at Cleveland: Aaron Civale and the Indians are -195 against Brady Singer and the Royals and I have the Tribe -178.

Philadelphia at Miami: This one is -105 both ways, with Jake Arrieta and Sandy Alcantara getting the starts. Teams who allowed more than 20 runs the previous night are 26-15 the next night and 14-5 at home, so the trends like the Fish, but I have the Phillies -132 so will sit it out in a game I was hoping to be on the Marlins.

Boston at Tampa Bay: Josh Fleming has been solid for the Rays, and Tampa is -195 over the Sox here. I have the Rays -225.

Baltimore at NY Yankees: Gerrit Cole and the Yankees are -220 in this one, which is a rematch of the  weekend’s game, which the Orioles won 6-1. Akin has just the one start, so my line of Baltimore -110 is a bit suspect, but will take a flyer on the Birds at +200 for .2 units.

Cincinnati at Cubs: Sonny Gray and the Reds are -135 over Alzolay the Cubs and Chicago in a decent situation of a home dog who was blanked as a home favorite the previous day. These teams are 79-78 over the years for an ROI of 8.1%. I have Chicago -136 so will take the Cubs +125 for .2 units.

San Francisco at San Diego: Chris Paddack and the Padres are -177 over Trevor Cahill and the Ginats and I have San Diego at -142.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona: Dustin May and the Dodgers are -220 over Madison Bumgarner and the Diamondbacks. Bumgarner had some success against LA earlier in his career, but his teams are 4-12 the last 16 times he’s faced LA. I made the Dodgers -164.

Record: 30-42 (+.29)

 

 

9/9/20

A couple of fewer games today than we’ve been seeing, so we’ll get right to it. As usual, using lines from William Hill.

Kansas City at Cleveland: Carlos Carrasco and the Indians are -210 over Danny Duffy and the Royals, which is a bit high. Duffy hasn’t pitched bad on the road, so I have Cleveland -116.

New York Yankees at Toronto: Garcia gets another start for the Yankees, where he’ll be opposed by Tanner Roark. Deivi Garcia has looked decent for the Yanks, while Roark has struggled a bit. The Yanks are -140 and I made New York -103.

Miami at Atlanta: Tommy Milone and the Braves are -130 over Pablo Lopez and the Marlins, while I made this one -139 for Atlanta.

Milwaukee at Detroit: Corbin Burnes and Matthew Boyd get the starts for their respective teams in this one and the Brewers are -160. I have Milwaukee -142.

Baltimore at New York Mets: The Mets are -180 in this one and I certainly wouldn’t trust Rick Porcello at those odds. Jorge Lopez hasn’t exactly tore it up for the Orioles, but I have the O’s -106 and will take a shot on Baltimore +165 for .20 units to win .33.

Colorado at San Diego: Zach Davies and the Padres are -180 over Antonio Senzatela and the Rockies, while I have San Diego -235.

Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs: Good pitching match-up here, with Trevor Bauer and Yu Darvish taking the mound and the Cubs are -153. I have Chicago -144 in this one.

Los Angeles Angels at Texas: Julio Teheran goes for the Angels and Kyle Cody starts for the Rangers. Teheran started horribly for the Angels but looked more like himself last start against the Padres. Cody was solid in his first start but only went three innings. The Angels are -120.

Houston at Oakland: Jesus Luzardo opposes Luis Garcia in this one and Garcia did well in his MLB debut, but this is still a big step up from A ball, which is the highest class he pitched in until last week. This is his first start and the A’s are -172.

LA Dodgers at Arizona: Clayton Kershaw is -290 over Taylor Clarke and I have the Dodgers -230 in this spot.

Seattle at San Francisco: Tyler Anderson and Nick Margevicius get the starts here and the Giants are -140. I have the Mariners -148, so will take Seattle +130 for .3 units to win .39 units. Margevicius has made seven road starts since last season. The Mariners were drilled both times in Colorado with him on the mound, but haven’t allowed more than three runs in his five non-Coors Field starts, including a 3-1 win at San Francisco last year.

Record: 30-40 (+.79)

 

 

9/8/20

Have stunk it up across the board the last two days, with a little bad luck and some bad picks, which is a brutal combination. All you can do is march forward, so we’ll get to Tuesday’s MLB slate.

Tampa Bay at Washington: The Rays and Ryan Yarbrough are -170 at Washington, who is throwing Anibal Sanchez. The Nats have hit LHP a little better at home than they have RHP, but still have TB-170.

Kansas City at Cleveland: McKenzie has been a nice additional to the Cleveland rotation and is -210 over Jakob Junis and the Royals, while I have Cleveland -178.

New York Yankees at Toronto: Taijuan Walker and Toronto are -115 over the Yankees and JA Happ, while I have the Jays -170. Happ is throwing against his former team and think NY might be the right side in this one.

Chicago White Sox at Pittsburgh: The Sox and Dylan Cease are -135 at Pittsburgh, who are starting Joe Musgrove. The line is pretty close to my Sox -138.

Milwaukee at Detroit: The Brewers and Adrian Houser are -153 in this one against Detroit and Spencer Turnbull, while I have the Tigers -125. Will go ahead and take Detroit +140 for .2 units to win .28.

Miami at Atlanta: The Braves and Kyle Wright are down to -115 over the Marlins and Sanchez, while I made the Fish -103. Still, hard to take Miami in this spot with Sanhez having just a couple of starts, although he’s been solid.

Baltimore at NY Mets: Means makes the start for the Birds, while Michael Wacha goes for New York and the Mets are -180, which is a little on the high side. I have this one even.

Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs: This one is -105 both ways, with Tyler Mahle and Alec Mills getting the starts for their respective teams. I made Chicago -135 here.

Minnesota at St. Louis: Jose Berrios and the Twins are -130 over Carlos Martinez and the Cards and I have it at -133 for Minnesota, but a tough one to play until we see more of Martinez.

LA Angels at Texas: Andrew Heaney and the Angels are -125 at Lance Lynn and the Rangers, while I have Texas -155, so will take the home dog for .20 units to win .23.

Los Angeles at Arizona: Walker Buehler and the Dodgers are -245 at Luke Weaver and the Diamondbacks, which is another that is priced too high. I have LA -135 but Weaver has been up-and-down this season.

Record: 28-40 (+.28)

 

9/7/20

Coming off one of those days where you probably deserve better, but it wasn’t meant to be. Running a little behind schedule, so we’ll get right to it and look at some of the games on the schedule.

Miami at Atlanta: Ian Anderson and the Braves are -203 over Jose Urena and the Fish in this one and I have Atlanta -210. Urena is making his first start of the season after being on the COVID-19 list. He has struggled against the Braves in his career, as the Marlins are 2-11 in his 13 starts against Atlanta, allowing 6.23 runs per game.

Philadelphia at NY Mets: Zack Wheeler and the Phillies are -120 in this one, as Wheeler faces his former team. He was solid against them in his first start, but I still have the Mets -138 and will take New York +110 for .20 units.

Detroit at Minnesota: Michael Fulmer has had a hot hand against the Minnesota Twins in his career, with the Tigers going 5-0 in these five games and allowing 2.20 runs per contest. It figures to be a little tougher here against Michael Pineda, as the Twins are -210. I made Minnesota -171.

Texas at Seattle: Marco Gonzales and the Mariners are -153 over Kolby Allard and the Rangers in this battle of left-handers, while I have Seattle -189.

Tampa Bay at Washington: Charlie Morton and Max Scherzer are the expected starters in this one and the Nats are down to -125. Morton doesn’t figure to go more than three four innings, however.

New York Yankees at Toronto: It’s rare to see the Yankees an underdog, as this is just the seventh time all season, but we’re seeing it more and more. The Yankees haven’t been very good in that spot, going 1-5 through the first six games, and Ryu and the Blue Jays are -125 in this one, where the Yanks will throw Jordan Montgomery. I have Toronto -144 in this one.

Colorado at San Diego: Dinelson Lamet and the Padres are down to -180 over Kyle Freeland and the Rockies and I have San Diego -108. Freeland has been a little inconsistent this season, looking like the 2018 version of himself at times and the 2019 version at others.

Houston at Oakland: Frankie Montas and the A’s are -135 over Cristian Javier and the Astros and I made Houston the favorite, so will take a shot on the Astros +125 for .2 units.

Record: 28-38 (+.68)

 

 

9/6/20

Pretty good-sized slate of games for Sunday, with a couple still without probable pitchers, so we’ll do what we can here. A couple of big dogs today that are simply value plays, but wouldn’t be shocked if both go down, but large favorites of -200 aren’t performing as well this season as they have the last couple, entering today with a 53-33 record.

New York Yankees at Baltimore: The Yankees dropped a few cents this morning and are now -203 at William Hill, with Tanaka and Asher Wojciechowski on the mound. New York isn’t scoring at the same clip as a year ago, but I still have them -170.

Philadelphia at NY Mets: Aaron Nola and Jacob deGrom get the starts here in a spot I wanted to take the Phillies, but the line on NY is down to -145 and I made the Mets -132.

Milwaukee at Cleveland: Shane Bieber and the Indians are up to -255 over Brett Anderson and the Brewers, which is simply much too high in my opinion. I made this one pretty much a toss-up and have to take the Brewers +225, risking .2 units to win .45.

Washington at Atlanta: Josh Tomlin and the Braves are up to -125 over Patrick Corbin and the Nats, while I pretty much right there with a line of Atlanta -118.

Miami at Tampa Bay: Trevor Rogers was solid against the Mets, but now faces somebody else for his third start. Tyler Glasnow is rounding into form, but still a steep number here and will take the Marlins +193 for .2 units to win .38.

White Sox at Kansas City: Dallas Keuchel goes for the Sox and Matt Harvey replaces Keller for the Royals. Chicago is -210 and I have Chicago -250.

Detroit at Minnesota: Casey Mize and Rich Hill get the starts in this one and the Twins are -195, while I made this one -162.

Houston at LA Angels: Framber Valdez and the Astros are -153 over Jamie Barria and the Angeles and there’s probably a little bit of value with the home dog in this one, as I made Houston -110.

San Diego at Oakland: Garrett Richards and the Padres are -111 over Mike Fiers and the A’s and I have the Padres -102. But want no part of San Diego here, as the A’s have won the last 10 times Fiers has started at home.

Record: 28-36 (+1.08)

 

9/5/20

Heading the wrong direction in MLB. Still up slightly for the year, but the profits have been dwindling the past few weeks. Favorites are winning at a 61.6% clip overall and are showing a flat-bet profit for the season, which makes it a little tougher.

San Diego at Oakland: Chris Paddack and Sean Manaea get the starts in this one and the A’s are -111 at William Hill, while I have Oakland -143. Paddack historically hasn’t been quite as good on the road in terms of team runs allowed per game.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: Anthony DeSclafani and the Reds are -135 over Trevor Williams and the Pirates, which is right where I have it. DeSclafani has been tough on the road, where the Reds allow 3.26 runs with him on the mound dating back to last season.

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City: Lucas Giolito and the Sox are prohibitive -216 favores over Kris Bubic and the Royals and I have them at -200. Bubic did pitch well against Chicago earlier.

Detroit at Minnesota: Kenta Maeda and the Twins are -245 over Skubal and the Tigers, which is a bit high, as I made Minnesota -177.

Philadelphia at NY Mets: Seth Lugo and the Mets are -160 over Spencer Howard and the Phills in a game I wanted to take Philadelphia, but the numbers have the Mets -152, so no real value either way.

Milwaukee at Cleveland: Aaron Civale and the Indians are -115 over Brandon Woodruff and the Brewers in a decent pitcher’s duel, while I have Cleveland at -142.

Washington at Atlanta: Max Fried and the Braves are -255 over Erick Fedde and the Nationals, while I have it slightly closer at -180 for Atlanta.

Texas at Seattle: Justus Sheffield and the Mariners are -121 over Kyle Gibson and the Rangers in just the second game Sheffield has been a favorite. The first came two weeks ago against these same Rangers and the Mariners won 10-1. I have Seattle at -120.

Colorado at Dodgers: Tony Gonsolin and the Dodgers are -180 over German Marquez and the Rockies and I have the Dodgers -280. Gonsolin has been a beast at home, while Marquez with much better numbers away from Coors Field. Didn’t want to use totals in this article, but will take the under 8.5 (-105) for .21 units to win .20, since I have all of the favorites winning.

Arizona at San Francisco: Trevor Cahill and the Giants are -125 over Madison Bumgarner and the Diamondbacks and I have the Giants -103. Burmgarner has been brutal this season, but is returning to the site of most of his success.

Record: 27-36 (+.88)

 

 

9/4/20

A few more games without lines for today than usual, so we’ll see what we can come up with for the day.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: The Reds and Luis Castillo are up to -180 over Steven Brault and the Pirates in a game where the line is simply too high. I have the Reds -110 in this one and will go ahead and bite on the Pirates +165 for .2 units to win .33.

Milwaukee at Cleveland: Carlos Carrasco and the Indians are -145 over Burnes and the Brewers and I made this one -122 for Cleveland, with both the offensive and defensive numbers pretty close to each other.

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City: The White Sox are -172 in this one with Dane Dunning and Brady Singer getting the starts for their respective teams. Dunning has been good for Chicago, although the line is a bit on the high side for me, as I have Chicago -140.

St. Louis at Chicago Cubs: Yu Darvish and the Cubs are -135 in this one against Jack Flaherty and the Cardinals and I have St. Louis -103, so will take a shot on the Cardinals +125 for the standard .2 units to win .25.

Houston at Los Angeles Angels: Lance McCullers and the Astros are just -115 over Dylan Bundy and the Angels, while I have Houston -140. The Astros haven’t missed a beat against RHP on the road, even though they aren’t scoring at quite the same clip as they did last year overall.

Texas at Seattle: Kyle Cody and Yusei Kikuchi get the nods for their teams in this one and the Mariners are -130. I’m not really sure how to view this one, with Cody seeing limited time on the hill. I made the Mariners -102.

San Diego at Oakland: Zach Davies starts for the Padres against Jesus Lazardo and the A’s and Oakland is now -145, which is more in line with what they should be, as opposed to the opening number of -118. I have the A’s -164.

Colorado at Los Angeles Dodgers: Dustin May and the Dodgers are -250 over Antonio Senzatela and the Rockies and even that may be too low, as I have the Dodgers -310.

Arizona at San Francisco: The Giants have climbed to -130 in this one, with Tyler Anderson and Taylor Clarke starting. Anderson’s numbers are ugly, but so are Arizona’s against LHP this year. I have the Giants -130.

Record 27-34 (+1.28)

 

9/3/20

Ugly day for me all-around on Wednesday, so will look to get back on track today. Small card with one or two games still not listing starters, so we’ll do what we can.

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh: Alec Mills and the Cubs are now -145 at William Hill over JT Brubaker and the Pirates. Brubaker did a decent job last time and that’s probably one reason why the line is a little on the low side. I have the Cubs -183.

Texas at Houston: Lance Lynn and Zack Greinke get the starts in this one and the Astros are -160, which is pretty much where the line opened. I have Houston -171 in this one.

Washington at Philadelphia: Anibal Sanchez was a little better last time out, although he was pretty dismal to begin the year, while Zach Eflin is coming off a decent start. The Nats aren’t hitting the ball this year like they did last year, so I made the Phillies -210 in this one, while the line is -172.

San Diego at Los Angeles Angeles: Mike Clevinger makes the start for the Padres against Andrew Heaney and the Padres have hit left-handers pretty well. Heaney hasn’t been the greatest pitcher at home, so San Diego is -145 in this one, while I made the number -155.

Toronto at Boston: Taijuan Walker will look to duplicate his first start as a Blue Jays when Toronto visits Martin Perez and the Red Sox. Perez hasn’t been all that impressive this season, although his ERA is a respectable 4.58. He hasn’t gotten much help from the bullpen as the Sox are allowing 5.43 runs per game with him on the mound and are 2-5 in the games he’s started. The Jays are -121 and I made them -135.

Arizona at Los Angeles Dodgers: Luke Weaver and the Diamondbacks visit Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers, which isn’t an ideal situation for a team that is 0-6 on the road against left-handed starters. Weaver’s numbers are brutal this season, but he has pitched better on the road going back to last year. I made the Dodgers -205.

New York Yankees at New York Mets: A rematch of a game last week, where the Yankees won -21, sees JA Happ and Robert Gsellman oppose each other once again and the Mets are -110 in a slight reverse move. Happ doesn’t quite get the recognition he deserves, but the Yanks are 12-3 when he starts on the road dating back to last season. I have New York -115 and will make a token play on the Yankees at even money for .15 units, so not quite a regular play, as I’m not a fan of going against these types of moves.

Record: 27-23 (+1.43)

 

 

 

9/2/20

The standard of a few games without lines and/or probable starting pitchers, so we’ll look over the games we have and go from there.

San Francisco at Colorado: After a fast start to the season, Kyle Freeland has come down to earth a little bit, with the Rockies allowing 17 runs in his last two home starts. He’ll be opposed by Logan Webb and I made Colorado -117. Underdogs who scored 20 or more runs the previous day are 4-10. The Rockies are -135 at William Hill after climbing slightly this morning.

St. Louis at Cincinnati: Tyler Mahle and the Reds are -153 over Johan Oviedo and the Cardinals and I’m not so sure I agree. Mahle is off to a strong start and getting plenty of strikeouts, but Oviedo has pitched well in his couple of starts. I have the Cardinals -120 so will take St. Louis for .20 units to win .28.

Toronto at Miami: Decent game here, with Ryu and Sanchez getting the starts. The Jays are now -115, as the line has been dropping all morning. I have Toronto -107, but Sanchez has been strong. Still, the Fish have scored 1 run or less in four of their six home games against LHP.

Cubs at Pittsburgh: The Cubs are -190 with Hendricks and Joe Musgrove expected to start in this one. I have Chicago -155 in this spot.

Tampa Bay at New York Yankees: Charlie Morton starts for Tampa Bay against Jordan Montgomery and the Yankees after last night’s fiasco. As good as Morton has been for Tampa, he’s been quite a bit better at home, so I have the Yanks -160 in this one. The line has climbed to -130 for New York.

Washington at Philadelphia: Max Scherzer and the Nationals are -121 over Zack Wheeler and the Phillies and I made the Nats -147. Washington has hit right-handers a little better on the road.

Detroit at Milwaukee: Spencer Turnbull takes the mound for the Tigers and Adrian Houser takes the mound for the Brewers, where Milwaukee is -153. The Tigers are getting the majority of the wagers, which is a little surprising, but Turnbull has been pretty good on the road. Dating back to last season, the Tigers have allowed 3.76 runs per game and are 3-13-1 in totals. The Brewers are 2-7-1 in totals when Houser starts at home dating back to last season. I made Milwaukee -120 in a game where the under looks enticing.

Cleveland at Kansas City: Triston McKenzie gets another start for the Indians and he’s been everything Cleveland could have hoped for, while Junis starts for the Royals, but has been spotty. I have Cleveland -177.

Record: 27-32 (+1.63)

 

 

9/1/20

A bit of a crappy card for Tuesday, but we’ve had a fair number of those lately. A few games still without lines or listed starters, so we’ll make due with what we have.

St. Louis at Cincinnati: Sonny Gray gets the start for the Reds in this one against lefty Kwang Hyun Kim. The Reds are -157 in this one and I have Gray -148. The Cards are 7-13 on the road against RHP after scoring 7 or more runs their previous game.

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh: Jon Lester and the Cubs are -160 over Chad Kuhl and the Pirates and I have it a little bit closer at -130. Kuhl has been pitching well.

Washington at Philadelphia: Aaron Nola and the Phillies are -153 over Patrick Corbin and the Nats and I made the Phillies -175.

Tampa Bay at New York: Masahiro Tanaka and the Yankees are -145 over Trevor Richards and Tampa Bay and I have New York -120.

Atlanta at Boston: The Braves are -177 in this one, with Ian Anderson and Ryan Weber going and I have Atlanta -182. Steep price to lay on a guy who has just one career start.

Detroit at Milwaukee: Josh Lindblom and the Brewers are -172 over Michael Fulmer and the Tigers, but neither pitcher has been particularly impressive so far this season. Fulmer will probably go three innings or so once again, while Lindblom gets a lot of strikeouts but also allows a lot of runs, sporting a 6.31 ERA. I have the Brewers -123.

Cleveland at Kansas City: Zach Plesac and Matt Harvey start in this one and the Indians are -195, while I have it a bit closer at -138 for the Tribe. Plesac was pitching well before he was sent back to the team’s alternate site.

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota: Dallas Keuchel and the Sox are -111 at Minnesota, where Michael Pineda comes off the suspension list to make his first start this year. Pineda started off last season in decent fashion, as the Twins allowed 8 runs in his first three starts, so will take a stab on Minnesota at even money for the usual .20 units.

Texas at Houston: Luis Garcia hasn’t pitched bad for the Rangers, but finds himself a huge dog here, as Framber Valdez and the Astros are -280. That’s a bit on the high side, as I made Houston -160.

Arizona at Dodgers: Julio Urias and the Dodgers are -250 over Alex Young and the Diamondbacks in a price that’s a bit on the high side. Arizona has struggled with LHP this year, but LA has only scored 16 runs in its four home games against southpaws and I have LA -160.

Record: 26-32 (+1.43)

 

8/31/20

A slightly smaller slate of games for this Monday, with a couple of them not having lines out yet, so we’ll get to it. As usual, we’ll use the odds from William Hill since they go into several different states and have been a solid outlet from my time in Nevada.

Baltimore at Toronto: Chase Anderson and the Blue Jays are -143 over Keegan Akin and the Orioles. Akin is making his first start and has a couple of relief appearances under his belt. I made the Jays -143 but hard to take a stand one way or the other in this one.

Seattle at Los Angeles Angels: Jaime Barria makes his first start of the season and he was solid at home last season, so I have the Angeles -175 in this one. Barria was a different story on the road, as the Angeles allowed 3.5 runs per game in his four home starts and 6.44 runs in his nine away games. Marco Gonzales gets the start for Seattle and he can be tough, so no interest in playing this one, where the Angels -153.

St. Louis at Cincinnati: Decent game here, where Dakota Hudson and Anthony DeSclafani take the mound for their respective teams. The Reds opened -115 and the line is still there with the betting pretty well split. I have the Reds -110.

Tampa Bay at New York Yankees: Tyler Glasnow and Gerrit Cole start in this one and the Yankees are -140. I have Cole and New York -149 in this one.

Washington at Philadelphia: Spencer Howard and the Phillies have jumped up to -135 after opening -112 and getting 62% of the wagers. Fedde is nothing special, but the Nats are 9-6 in the 15 games he’s started and most of his poor starts have been at home. I have Washington -135 in this one and will take the Nats +125 for .2 units in this game.

Atlanta at Boston: Max Fried and the Braves are -190 over Colten Brewer and the Sox, while I made Atlanta -180 here.
Cleveland at Kansas City: Shane Bieber and the Indians are solid -219 favorites and that’s definitely a bit on the high side. Brad Keller has pitched decent this year, but has just two home starts this season and his home numbers are a bit distorted due to his final home start last year when the Royals allowed 19 runs. Even with that, I still have Cleveland just -180, so might be a little value with the home dog, but the Tribe has allowed just seven runs in Bieber’s five road starts this year.

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota: Our man Lucas Giolito goes for Chicago here and the Sox are -135 over Rich Hill and the Twins. The Sox hit LHP better than right-handers, so I have Chicago -195.

Record: 26-31 (+1.63)

 

 

8/30/20

A fair number of games with lines and probable starters, with most of them afternoon contests. Wanted to get this out early but fell victim to the CenturyLink internet outage, which is all over the country.

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati: Tyler Chatwood and Luis Castillo get the starts here and the Reds are -157. Castillo is 0-4 on the season, but hasn’t pitched poorly, with the Reds scoring 6 runs for him and being blanked twice. I have the Reds -155.

Minnesota at Detroit: Kenta Maeda and the Twins are -210 and I have Minnesota -200 over Casey Mize and his splitter.

Washington at Boston: Zack Godley and the Sox are -111 over Austin Voth and the Nats and both pitchers have labored. The Nats are 3-10 with Voth on the hill and Godley’s teams have lost his last nine starts. I have Washington -130 but no interest in this one.

Pittsburgh at Milwaukee: The Brewers are 14-2 with Woodruff at home dating back to last year and no surprise they’re -260 over Steven Brault and the Pirates. I made Milwaukee -220.

Oakland at Houston: Good one here between promising southpaws and the line is -105 in both directions, with Jesus Luzardo and Framber Valdez on the hill. I made Oakland -125.

Cleveland at St. Louis: The Tribe is on a roll against RHP on the road, but face a tough one here in Adam Wainright. Civale is -121 over Wainwright and I have the Cards -103, so will take St. Louis +110 for .2 units.

Dodgers at Texas: The Dodgers and Tony Gonsolin are -216 over Kyle Gibson and the Rangers, while I made this one LA-235.

San Diego at Colorado: Chris Paddack and Ryan Castellani get the starts in this one and the Padres are now -153. I have the Rockies -130, although it’s a bit tough to get a good read on Castellani with just a few starts under his belt. Still, will take a stab on the Rockies in this one, wagering .20 to win .28 units (rounding downward, as usual).

Seattle at Los Angeles Angels: Griffin Canning and the Angels are -177 over Dunn and the Mariners, which is a little on the high side. I made Los Angeles -125 here.

San Francisco at Arizona: The Diamondbacks and Clarke are -121 over Johnny Cueto and the Giants. I made the Diamondbacks -125.

Record: 25-30 (+1.61)

 

 

8/29/20

The Rockies’ bullpen imploded on Friday, sending to a loss, and onto a bit of a strange Saturday, where there are quite a few teams without listed starters, so we don’t really have that many games to go over.

Cleveland at St. Louis: The Cardinals and Jack Flaherty opened -127 and the line has come down a little bit to its current -121. Carlos Carrasco gets the start for the Tribe. I made St. Louis -143 in this one.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Texas: Ross Stripling and the Dodgers are -153 over Lance Lynn and the Rangers and I made LA -138. Stripling hasn’t gotten it done on the mound this year, but has received 7.67 runs per game behind him. Despite some ugly stats, the Dodgers are 5-1 in the games Stripling has started this season.

Pittsburgh at Milwaukee: The Brewers are -180 in this one at William Hill and I have Anderson -175 over JT Brubaker. The Pirates are 9-18 on the road against LHP dating back to last season, while going 19-7-1 in totals in that spot.

Washington at Boston: The Nationals are -111 in this one with Anibal Sanchez, who has looked a little better his last two starts after a rough start. Mazza was on the losing end of a 4-2 decision to the Yankees in his debut, so not sure what to expect here.

Oakland at Houston: Yesterday’s game that was postponed sees the Astros a little higher than they were previously, having moved up to -130. I have the home team -102, so no real interest in this one.

San Francisco at Arizona: The Diamondbacks are -135 over Trevor Cahill and the Giants in this one, which opened a few cents higher, but has seen the road team get the majority of wagers. Luke Weaver is expected to get the start here and he’s looked a little better, but has some brutal numbers due to his start. Cahill isn’t bad, but Arizona gets the offensive nod, so I have the Diamondbacks -160 in this one.

Kansas City at Chicago White Sox: The White Sox and Dylan Cease are -157 over Brady Singer and the Royals. Cease has given his team a chance to win every start this season, while Singer is coming off an ugly start. Singer has been hurt by the long ball this season and now faces a Chicago team that is leading the AL in dingers. Most of those HRs came against left-handed hitters, however, and the Sox have a lot of right-handers. Will take the Royals for .2 units to win .29, not because it’s a great wager, but about the only thing I see with what’s out there now.

Record: 24-30 (+1.32)

 

8/28/20

 

We’ll see if we have any better luck today after seeing all of our plays postponed the last two days. As usual, the standard assortment of undecided pitchers, so we’ll look at the games where the starters have been named.

Atlanta at Philadelphia: Robbie Erlin and Zack Wheeler take the mound in this one and the Phillies are -145. The Phils roughed Erlin up a little bit in a relief effort and he doesn’t figure to go far. I have the Phillies -173 here.

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati: Kyle Hendricks and Tyler Mahle go for their respective teams in this one and the Cubs are -125. I have the Cubs -101 in this one.

Kansas City at Chicago White Sox: Interesting game here, as Danny Duffy and the Royals visit Chicago to face Reynaldo Lopez and the Sox. Duffy has been strong on the road, where the Royals allow just 3.69 runs per game with him on the mound, but the White Sox hit LHP better than they do right-handers. I made Chicago -107 in this spot.

Pittsburgh at Milwaukee: The Brewers and Corbin Burnes are solid -195 favorites over Derek Holland the Pirates, while I have Milwaukee -205.

Cleveland at St. Louis: Triston McKenzie gets the start for the Indians and he’ll be hard-pressed to top his debut, where he allowed 1 run over 6 innings and struck out 10. He’ll face a better-hitting team here, so it will be interesting to see how it all plays out. I have the Indians -102 and they’re currently -125 at William Hill.

San Diego at Colorado: Zach Davies and the Padres are -111 over Kyle Freeland the Rockies, while I have Colorado -120, so will take the home team for .4 units at even money. Freeland looks better than he did last year and the Rockies have won his last five home starts.

Oakland at Houston: Chris Bassitt and Lance McCullers go in this one and the Astros are -121, while I have Houston -102. McCullers has been inconsistent this year and you really don’t know which pitcher you’re going to get. Bassitt has been a little better at home, but his away numbers aren’t all that bad.

San Francisco at Arizona: Zac Gallen and the Diamondbacks are -172 over Tyler Anderson and the Giants, while I have Arizona -142. Gallen has thrown well this season, but so has Anderson and the Diamondbacks have struggled against southpaws this season.

Record: 24-29 (+1.72)

 

8/27/20

Your guess is as good as mine if we’re going to have MLB games today, but we’ll plod forth in case they do. Both of our plays last night were postponed, so onto Thursday. Not all games with lines today, especially a few with tentative doubleheaders.

Colorado at Arizona: Decent pitching matchup here, with Kyle Freeland and Zac Gallen getting the starts for their teams. The Diamondbacks are -153 at William Hill and I have Arizona -160. I like Freeland, but he gets penalized a little bit here with the Rockies laboring to score on the road against RHP.

Boston at Toronto: Ryu and the Blue Jays are solid -195 favorites over Mazza and the Red Sox in this one. I made Toronto -145, but not a whole lot to go on with Mazza, who has just one MLB start.

Baltimore at Tampa Bay: John Means and Ryan Yarbrough go in this one, where the Rays are -172, which is a little high, as Yarbrough hasn’t been as strong as some of the other Rays pitchers. Means has been up and down a little bit and I have Tampa -113.

Minnesota at Detroit: Matthew Boyd and the Tigers are getting a little action in this one, as the Twins and Randy Dobnak are down to -155. I have the Twins –230 in this one.

Philadelphia at Washington: Max Scherzer and the Nats are -177 over Howard and the Phils, as Washington isn’t getting the support from bettors they once did. I have the Nats -102, so probably a bit of value with the road team and I’ll make a token .2 unit play on the Phillies to win .31 units (rounding downward).

Oakland at Texas: Chris Bassitt and the A’s are up to -190 over Jordan Lyles and the Rangers in this one, while I made the A’s just -115. Another game where there’s some value on the dog, but probably not quite enough to play it.

Cincinnati at Milwaukee: Wade Miley and the Reds are -130 in a strange one that has seen a massive reverse line move, with the Brewers opening as favorites and getting a little more than 60% of the wagers. Don’t know if that means players are sitting for Milwaukee or not, so will just stay away even though the numbers have Milwaukee -145.

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco: Walker Buehler and the Dodgers are -245 and I have LA -135 over Brandon Webb, as the Giants are swinging the bats better this season.

Pittsburgh at St. Louis: Kim and the Cards are -172 over Chad Kuhl and the Pirates and I made it -165 for St. Louis, so nothing here.

Record: 24-29 (+1.72)

 

8/26/20

Nothing worse than getting a solid effort from your starter, only to see the first relief pitcher hand the game away, but that’s happening more and more nowadays. Anyway, on to Wednesday’s slate.

Pittsburgh at White Sox: Dallas Keuchel and the Sox are -210 over the Pirates and Trevor Williams, while I made Chicago -180. Teams who were no-hit are just 18-31 in the next game and 1-8 when a +150 or more underdog.

Philadelphia at Washington: Aaron Nola and the Phils are -111 over Patrick Corbin and the Nationals, while I made this one even, so no value either direction.

Chicago Cubs at Detroit: Jon Lester and the Cubs are -130 over Michael Fulmer and the Tigers, which is what I have it at and also a little bit lower than I was expecting.

Miami at New York Mets: Jacob deGrom and the Mets are hefty -260 favorite over Hernandez and the Marlins, while I have this one at -173.

Cincinnati at Milwaukee: Sonny Gray and Adrian Houser get the starts in this one and the Reds have climbed a little bit to -125. I made the Brewers -137, so will take Milwaukee +115 for .40 units to win .46.

Oakland at Texas: Mike Fiers and the A’s are -140 over Kolby Allard and the Rangers in this one and I have Oakland at -135.

Seattle at San Diego: The Padres and Dinelson Lamet are -216 over Taijuan Walker and the Mariners, which is definitely on the high side. Despite Lamet’s impressive ERA, the Padres are winning because of their offense, as they’ve allowed 5 or more runs in five of Lamet’s 6 starts. The lone exception was the season-opening win against Arizona. I made the Mariners -105 here, with Walker either being pretty solid or pretty bad depending on the day, but will take a shot on Seattle +195 for .4 units to win .78.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Clayton Kershaw: The Giants have been left-handers well this season and now face one of the best, as Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers are -245 over Kevin Gausman, who hasn’t been very good this season. I have Los Angeles -255 in this one.

New York Yankees at Atlanta: Max Fried and the Braves are now -130 over Tanaka and the Yankees in this one and I have Atlanta -133, so nothing happening in this one.

Record: 24-29 (+1.72)

 

8/25/20

The Indians came up a run shy on Monday, as part of an ugly day, and a few more games on Tuesday’s slate, which doesn’t look all that enticing. The usual lack of scheduled starters for a few of the games.

Philadelphia at Washington: The public is catching on to the Nats’ struggles against RHP and the Phillies have been bet up to -121, with Jake Arrieta and Erick Fedde the starters. I have the Phillies -140 in this one.

Boston at Toronto: Chase Anderson and the Jays are -125 over Kyle Hart and I made Toronto -115 in this one.

Baltimore at Tampa Bay: Tyler Glasnow and the Rays are -133 over Tommy Milone and the Orioles and I have this one at just Tampa -133. Baltimore has won its last six on the road against right-handers, but Tampa is on a 9-1 run as a home favorite after a home loss.

Minnesota at Cleveland: The Indians and Bieber are -172 over the Twins and Hill and I have Cleveland small -102 favorites in this one. Not really fond of anything today, so will make a small .20-unit play on the Twins to win .31.

Pittsburgh at Chicago White Sox: Lucas Giolito and the Sox are -245 in this one over Steven Brault and the Pirates, while I made the Sox -177. Giolito was strong at home last start where he normally struggles a bit. Might lean to the over 8.5 in this spot.

Cincinnati at Milwaukee: This one has come down at a few places, but the Brewers are -111 at William Hill. I have woodruff -180 over Castillo.

Kansas City at St. Louis: Matt Harvey goes against Adam Wainwright here and the Cardinals are -203, while I have them at -189,

Oakland at Texas: Sean Manaea and the A’s are up to -153 over Kyle Gibson and the Rangers. I have Oakland -126 in a spot I was hoping to back Texas, but didn’t think the A’s would such large favorites.

Seattle at San Diego: Chris Paddack and the Padres are -195 over Marco Gonzales and the Mariners, while I have the Padres -182.

Colorado at Arizona: The Diamondbacks are now -111 in a game where the home team is getting a little sharp action. I have Marquez -115 over Young but a tough game to call.

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco: Julio Urias and the Dodgers are -203 over Johnny Cueto and the Giants in another game I was hoping to see the numbers call it closer. I made LA -173, so no real value with the home team.

Record: 24-28 (+1.92)

 

8/24/20

A split on Sunday and we’re faced with a smaller slate of games for Monday. All of the games have lines and probable starters for a change, so we’ll run down the list.

Toronto at Tampa Bay: Blake Snell and the Rays are -210 over Tanner Roark and the Blue Jays, which is a little on the high side in my opinion. Roark hasn’t pitched bad and his teams are allowing fewer than four runs per game when he starts on the road. Still, I have the Rays -151 in this one.

Miami at Washington: The Fish let me down yesterday and they’re drawing a little sharp action in this one, as Austin Voth and the Nationals are down to -115 over Pablo Lopez and Miami. Would lean that way if I had to play it, but since I have Washington -111, there’s no real value on either side.

Chicago Cubs at Detroit: The Tigers are getting a little action in this one, as Alec Mills and the Cubs are just -135. Detroit with its share of troubles against RHP at home, going just 2-7 this season, so I made Chicago -155 against Casey Mize.

Minnesota at Cleveland: The Twins and Kenta Maeda are now -111 at William Hill over Aaron Civale and the Tribe and I made Cleveland -135 in this one. Minnesota gets the offensive edge, but a decent advantage to Cleveland in the pitching department, so will take the Indians even for .40 units.

Cincinnati at Milwaukee: Trevor Bauer and the Reds are -135 at Brett Anderson and Milwaukee, while I have this one even. Offense is pretty even, with Bauer getting a slight edge in pitching. Milwaukee gets the home field edge, so pretty much a toss-up.

Kansas City at St. Louis: Jack Flaherty and St. Louis is -177 over Brad Keller and the Royals, while I have the Cards -153. Keller has been decent, but Flaherty has been a little better at home and the Cards with the scoring edge.

Oakland at Texas: Jesus Luzardo and the A’s are now -140 over Lance Lynn and the Rangers in a rematch of the Aug. 4 game, which Oakland won 5-1. Lynn is another underdog who has pitched well, but facing a higher-scoring team and Luzardo looks tough so far.

Los Angeles Angels at Houston: Sandoval and Framber Valdez meet in this battle of southpaws and Houston is -153. Valdez still looks rough at times but is shaping up to be a decent starter. I made the Astros -158.

Colorado at Arizona: Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks are -157 in this one and I have Arizona -205 against Ryan Castellani and the Rockies. Colorado labors to score on the road at times.

Record: 24-27 (+2.32)

 

8/23/20

A much-needed sweep on Saturday, as we head into somewhat of an ugly card for Sunday. The standard issue with lines and probable pitchers, so we’ll look at the games that are on the slate with posted odds and scheduled starters.

Miami at Washington: The Nationals are -157 at William Hill with Anibal Sanchez on the mound against Humberto Mejia. No way you can back the Nationals against a right-handed starter at the time, with the Nats going 0-8 at home or 0-9 if you count Saturday’s game against the Marlins, where Miami was technically the home team even though the game was played in D.C. Sanchez has struggled, so I have the Marlins -120. Not a lot of faith in Miami, however, so will just wager .30 units to win .44 on the Fish.

Boston at Baltimore: The Red Sox and Zack Godley are -125 over Wade LeBlanc and the Orioles and I have Boston -106. Neither pitcher has been anything special this year.

Detroit at Cleveland: Carlos Carrasco and the Tribe are -250 over the Tigers and Skubal and I made Cleveland -245. Carrasco has struggled to find the plate a little this season but has typically been solid at home.

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh: The Brewers and Burnes are -172 over the Pirates and JT Brubaker, while I have the Brewers just -110. The Pirates are 0-3 after scoring 8 or more runs this season.

Cincinnati at St Louis: Tyler Mahle and Daniel Ponce de Leon get the starts in this one and the Reds are -120, while I have St. Louis -125. The Reds are 3-12 with Mahle on the road going back to last season even though he pitches a little better away from home. Will take the Cards +110 but just for .30 units.

White Sox at Cubs: Yu Darvish and the Cubs are -172 over Dylan Cease and the streaking White Sox, while I made this one -133 in favor of the Cubs. The Sox have won the last three games between the two.

Los Angeles Angels at Oakland: Another short price on the a’s in this one, with Frankie Montas -125 over Dylan Bundy. I have the A’s -155 in this one.

Arizona at San Francisco: Luke Weaver and the Diamondbacks are -130 at Trevor Cahill and the Giants, while I have Arizona -185. Weaver has had a few decent outings, but also a couple of ugly ones.

Philadelphia at Atlanta: The Braves and Josh Tomlin are -121 over Zach Eflin and the Phillies in this one and I have the Braves -123. Atlanta is 10-3 at home this year and 5-1 as a small favorite of -125 or less.

Record 23-26 (+2.29)

 

8/22/20

Not getting any of the close in either hoops or on the diamond lately, but we’ve all had stretches where things don’t go right in this business. The usual lack of lines and/or probable starters for some teams.

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh: Josh Lindblom and Derek Holland get the starts here and the Brewers are -160 at William Hill in this spot. Holland was lit up last start, which actually puts him in a long-term profitable situation, so will take the Pirates +150 for .50 units.

Los Angeles Angels at Oakland: The A’s and Bassitt are -140 over Griffin Channing and the Angeles and I made the A’s -148 here.

Boston at Baltimore: The Red Sox and Martin Perez are -121 over Alex Cobb and the Orioles in a game the Sox are favored due to name only. Baltimore has the better record and the better pitcher going, so will take a flyer on the Orioles +110 for .50 units.

Minnesota at Kansas City: Randy Dobnak has been on a roll lately, so no surprise to see him -160 at Kansas City, even though Singer hasn’t been all that bad for the Royals. I have the Twins -125 due to their hitting edge.

Detroit at Cleveland: The Indians have come down a little bit here and are now -160 with Triston McKenzie, who is making his MLB debut. The Tigers’ Matthew Boyd has been getting hammered. I have Cleveland -170 but no interest in playing this one until we see how McKenzie performs after he missed all of last season.

Philadelphia at Atlanta: Zack Wheeler and the Phillies are -111 at Atlanta, with Zack Wheeler going up against Robbie Erlin, who was roughed up by the Phillies 12 days ago. Will stay clear of this one.

Cincinnati at St. Louis: The Cardinals are favored -130 in this battle of left-handers, with Kim and Miley the starters. I made the Cardinals -107.

Houston at San Diego: The Padres are up to -130 in this one with Zach Davies getting the start for the home team against Brandon Bielak. I made San Diego -103.

Texas at Seattle: Justus Sheffield and the Mariners are now -140 over Jordan Lyles and the Rangers and I made Seattle -125.

Colorado at Los Angeles Dodgers: Dustin May and the Dodgers are -216 over Kyle Freeman and the Rockies, which may be a little on the steep side. Freeman typically pitches well against the Dodgers and all 10 of his lifetime starts against LA have gone under the total. I made the Dodgers -170.

Arizona at San Francisco: Zac Gallen and Arizona are -157 over Tyler Anderson and the Giants. I have Arizona -270 in this one.

Record: 21-26 (+.89)

 

8/21/20

Heading the wrong way with the baseball plays, but still a little in the black. As I’ve said before, playing nearly all dogs will see more ups-and-downs than those who play all favorites and it seems like you’re on the wrong side of games like last night’s Texas vs. San Diego contest more often that not. A number of unlisted starters this morning, so we’ll do what we can.

Miami at Washington: Patrick Corbin and the Nats are -195 over the Marlins, who are unlisted on their starter, although I’ve seen Hernandez penciled in. Interesting game, as Corbin has been tough against Miami in the past but the Nationals have dropped their last 10 at home against right-handed starters, including all seven this year, where they’ve scored 11 runs.

Detroit at Cleveland: The Indians and Adam Plutko are -172 over the Tigers and Michael Fulmer and I have the Tribe -250.

Philadelphia at Atlanta: The Braves are now -111 over the Phillies and Aaron Nola, while I have Atlanta -200. The Phillies were favored earlier this morning but the public has pushed Atlanta back up.

White Sox at Cubs: The White Sox are now -111 in this battle of lefties, with Dallas Keuchel and Jon Lester battling. I have the Sox -142.

Cincinnati at St. Louis: This one is -105 both ways and I have Dakota Hudson -108 over Anthony DeScalfani. Both pitchers have done well in their respective spots, but St. Louis has a little more offense.

Texas at Seattle: Another battle of lefties in this one, as Kolby Allard takes the mound for the Rangers and Nick Margevicius goes for the Mariners. The Rangers’ bullpen has been horrible, but Seattle is no bargain. Ugly game and I have the Rangers -121.

Los Angeles Angels at Oakland: Andrew Heaney and the Angels are -120 over Mike Fiers and the Athletics in a strange one, as the Angels look to be getting hammered by the wise guys, which is the only reason I can see the Angels being favored on the road and the line is climbing. I have Oakland -200 here but will stay away due to the line movement.

Colorado at Los Angeles Dodgers: Walker Buehler and the Dodgers are up to -240 over Jon Gray and the Rockies, a number which is slightly too high. I have the Dodgers -180 here.

Houston at San Diego: The Padres are -115 with Garrett Richards and Lance McCullers starting and I have the Astros -139. Not a game I’m overly thrilled with, which pretty much goes for the whole card, but will bit on McCullers as a dog and will take Houston for .4 units to win .42.

Record: 21-25 (+1.29)

 

8/20/20

Came up shy with the Marlins and the Diamondbacks last night, with the other game being postponed, so onto Thursday and the standard no lines/starters for a fair number of games still.

Detroit at Chicago White Sox: Lucas Giolito and the Sox have dropped to -160 in this one at William Hill and I can see the reason for the line dropping. Giolito has been better on the road, where Chicago is 12-4 with him starting away from home and just 6-12 in the Windy City. Turnbull has been decent away from Detroit and I have the Tigers -143, so will play .40 units to win .60 on the Tigers +150.

Houston at Colorado: German Marquez and the Rockies have dropped to -125 over Cristian Javier and Houston. I made this one essentially a toss-up. Marquez doesn’t have the greatest of numbers at home, but the Rockies are 10-5 with him on the hill at home.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh: Shane Bieber and the Tribe have been bet up to -255 over Trevor Williams and the Pirates and that number is a little steep, as I have Cleveland -190 in this one.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Seattle: The Dodgers send Clayton Kershaw to the mound and LA is -270 against Yusei Kikuchi and another case where the line is slightly higher than I have it, although not nearly enough to play the game, as I made the Dodgers -235.

Milwaukee at Minnesota: Good one here, as the Twins and Jose Berrios have dropped to -111 over Brandon Woodruff and the Brewers. Berrios hasn’t been all that great at home, with Minnesota going 3-9 in his last 12 home starts, but he is pitching better numbers-wise in his three home starts this year, even though the Twins are just 1-2 in those games, losing 2-0 and 4-2.

Texas at San Diego: Kyle Gibson and Dinelson Lamet get the starts in this one and the Padres are -180. The Padres are 2-8 with Lamet on the mound at home and 5-4 when he starts on the road. The Rangers split Gibson’s first two road starts and he was 9-4 on the road for the Twins last year, so will wager .40 units to win .66 on the Rangers in this one.

Cincinnati at St. Louis: Sonny Gray and the Reds are -140 in this one, having opened -130. The Cardinals are getting the majority of the wagers, so some sharp action on the road team here, so I’ll pass even though I have the Cardinals -130.

Arizona at Oakland: Sean Manaea and the A’s are -153 over Alex Young and Arizona and I made Oakland -114 in this one.

Record: 21-23 (+2.09)

 

8/19/20

Was on the wrong side of the Yankees game last night, as both pitchers were roughed up a little, but Tanaka a bit more than Snell. More of the same here for Wednesday, so we’ll look at the games with lines and probable pitchers penciled in.

Toronto at Baltimore: This one has come down to -105 both ways and I have the Jays and Tanner Roark -135 over Tommy Milone. Milone has made four starts this year, with the Orioles allowing 0 runs and 1 run in two of them, but 13 and 15 runs in the other two.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh: The Indians and Aaron Civale are -180 at Pittsburgh and Steven Brault. I have Cleveland -205 in this spot.

New York Mets at Miami: Jacob deGrom and the Mets are -216 over Pablo Lopez and the Marlins, while I have this one closer, with New York just -110, so will make a small play on the Marlins +195 for .20 units to win .39.

Washington at Atlanta: The Braves and Kyle Wright are -130 over the Nats and Erick Fedde. The Nats are 9-5 when Fedde starts since last season, while Atlanta is just 1-7 with Wright on the mound. I have Washington -130 and will take a shot on the Nats for .30 units to win .36.

Philadelphia at Boston: Jake Arrieta looks stronger than last year, when he was pitching injured, and Hart was bombed in his Major League debut, so no surprise to see the Phillies -140 in this one. I made the Phils -110.

Houston at Colorado: Framber Valdez and the Astros are -153 against Ryan Castellani and the Rockies. Both starters have thrown well so far but hard to get a read on Castellani, so just going to stay away here, although I wanted to take Rockies.

Texas at San Diego: Chris Paddack is a better pitcher at home and the Padres are -125 in this one against Lance Lynn and the Rangers. I made this one even.

Arizona at Oakland: Merrill Kelly gets the start for Arizona against Jesus Luzardo and Oakland is -160 in this one. Kelly has been solid for Arizona so far this season and they’ve hit left-handers better, so will take the Diamondbacks +150 for .30 units to win .45 in this one.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Seattle: The teams move to Seattle after Tony Gonsolin turned in another solid home effort last night, and Julio Urias and the Dodgers are -240 over Taijuan Walker and the Mariners. I have LA -214 in this one.

Record: 21-21 (+2.59)

 

8/18/20

The standard fare for MLB, where we can look at the majority of games, but a few without lines or listed starters.

Colorado at Houston: Antonio Senzatela and Zack Greinke get the starts here and the Astros are -203 at William Hill, while I made Houston -213.

San Francisco at Los Angeles Angels: The Angels and Dylan Bundy are -250 over Trevor Cahill and the Giants, which is a bit on the high side. I have the Angels -160 in this one. Los Angeles was 2-4 in the games Cahill started for them at home last season.

Oakland at Arizona: Frankie Montas and Luke Weaver get the starts here and Weaver continues to struggle the second time through the order. The A’s are -153 and I have them -142.

Toronto at Baltimore: The Jays are -140 in this one with Pearson over Wade LeBlanc and I have the line at the same -140.

Tampa Bay at New York Yankees: The wise guys are all over the Rays in this one, as Blake Snell and Tampa Bay are -121 over Tanaka and the Yankees. New York hasn’t hit lefties as well as they did last season, averaging 4.25 runs per game. They were held scoreless when they faced Snell in Tampa 11 days ago and have faced guys like Martin Perez and John Means. Still, you have a team undefeated at home going up against a pitcher who hasn’t been as sharp on the road. The Rays have allowed 6 runs in Snell’s two home starts this year and 11 in his road starts. Tanaka no slouch at home, where the Yanks are 14-6 when he starts and allow 3.5 runs per game. Might be a sucker bet, but will wager .30 units to win .33 on the Yanks.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh: Carlos Carrasco and the Indians are -180 at the Pirates and JT Brubaker and I have Cleveland just -105 in this one. Carrasco has been better at home than on the road.

Washington at Atlanta: The Braves and Josh Tomlin are -125 over Austin Voth and the Nats and I made the Braves -123 in this one.

Seattle at Los Angeles Dodgers: Tony Gonsolin and the Dodgers are -260 over Marco Gonzales and the Mariners. Gonzales can be inconsistent, while Gonsolin is a beast at home. In Gonsolin’s four lifetime starts at Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles has allowed a total of two runs. I have LA -200 and will probably play the under myself, but keeping these plays to just sides.

Philadelphia at Boston: Zach Eflin and the Phillies are -125 over Zack Godley and the Red Sox and I made the Phils -106 in this one.
Record: 21-20 (+2.89)

 

 

Yet more of the same today, with a few games being late to have lines posted and a couple of unlisted starters, so we’ll look at the games where we have lines.

Boston at New York Yankees: Martin Perez and Jordan Montgomery are the scheduled starters for this one and the Yankees are -153 at William Hill, while I have New York -167. The line opened at -160, so it’s trickled down a little bit.

Washington at Atlanta: Touki Toussaint and the Braves are up to -153 over Anibal Sanchez and the Nationals, while I have Washington -133. The Nats haven’t been the same team on the road vs. RHP so far this season, while the Braves are outscoring their numbers from last year.

New York Mets at Miami: Robert Gsellman and the Mets are -153 over Jordan Yamamoto and the Marlins, while I have New York -178. The Marlins have allowed 6 runs or more in seven of Yamamoto’s home starts dating back to last season.

Detroit at Chicago White Sox: Gio Gonzalez and the White Sox are -153 over Matthew Boyd and the Tigers in this battle of left-handers, while I have the Sox -143. The Tigers hit LHP on the road at a decent clip.

Kansas City at Minnesota: The Twins are down to -172 over the Royals, with Wisler getting the start, but probably throwing no more than three innings. Kris Bubic starts for the Royals and I made the Twins -235.

San Diego at Texas: Zach Davies and Jordan Lyles get the starts in this one that has the Padres -135. The Rangers have been struggling to score against RHP at home this year, averaging just 2.71 runs through their first seven games, which is a far cry from the 5.92 runs they averaged last year. The Padres are averaging 5.11 runs against RHP on the road, which is up a little from last year’s 4.91. I have the Rangers -141, but will just stay away due to the difference in scoring.

Oakland at Arizona: Chris Bassitt and Zac Gallen get the starts in this one and the line is -105 both ways here after the A’s opened as small favorites. Gallen wasn’t his best last time out, but think he’ll rebound here. I have Arizona -138 and will take the Diamondbacks -105 for .42 units to win .40.

Seattle at Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers and Ross Stripling are -295 over Justin Dunn and the Mariners. Dunn hasn’t pitched bad since joining the rotation for Seattle, so I have the Dodgers just -178 in this one.

Record: 20-20 (+2.49)

 

8/16/20

More of the same today, with a few unlisted starters and a couple of games off the board at William Hill, so we’ll make due with what we have once again.

New York Mets at Philadelphia: Zack Wheeler gets the start against his former team and the Phillies are -130 over Rick Porcello and the Mets. Hitting is pretty even, but Wheeler with better numbers than Porcello, so I have the Phillies -140.

Cleveland at Detroit: Adam Plutko and the Tribe are -140 over Michael Fulmer and the Tigers and I give the edge to Cleveland both offensively and defensively, so I have Plutko -185. Detroit is getting a bit of action here, as the line has dropped slightly despite the Indians getting close to two-thirds of the wagers.

Kansas City at Minnesota: Randy Dobnak has put together a few strong starts and the Twins are -190 over Brady Singer and the Royals. Singer also has had a few decent starts, so I have the Twins just -120 here.

St. Louis at Chicago White Sox: Dallas Keuchel and the Sox have dropped down to -135 here after being -150 earlier this morning as more wagers come in on the Cardinals. I have the Cardinals -124, so will take a shot on St. Louis, wagering .4 units to win .50.

Seattle at Houston: Justus Sheffield and Lance McCullers take the mound in this one and the Astros are -240, which might be a little high and a reaction to McCullers’ last start. I have the Astros -190.

Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs: Jon Lester and the Cubs have dropped a bit this morning and are -125 over Josh Lindblom and the Brewers. Milwaukee hasn’t hit LHP as well, so I have Chicago -215.

Texas at Colorado: Jon Gray and the Rockies are now -135 over Kolby Allard and the Rangers, while I have the Rockies -157 in this one. Colorado is averaging more runs against southpaws.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels: Dustin May and Julio Teheran start in this one and Teheran is a better pitcher than he has showed so far to start the season. May has been solid since joining the rotation and gets overshadowed a bit by the bigger names on the staff. I have the Dodgers -215.

San Diego at Arizona: Garrett Richards and Robbie Ray start here and Ray has been bad, but the Padres have struggled a bit against left-handed starters on the road. I have Arizona -148 and will take a shot on Ray once again, wagering .4 units to win .44.

Record: 19-19 (+2.45)

 

8/15/20

A lot of games without lines right now, so we’ll just look at the ones with lines and starters listed. A split for us last night, getting a bad break when Mills started instead of Chatwood for the Cubs and allowed four runs pitching into the sixth. Since the majority of U.S. Sportsbooks are using “Action” instead of “listed starters” we’ll follow suit and use action for our purposes here, but list the starters if your sportsbook gives you that option. Hopefully a few of you got no-action on the Cubs, as your record is more important than the one I list here.

New York Mets at Philadelphia: Matz has been brutal this season and the Phils are -160 with Aaron Nola. I made Philadelphia -139 and want to see Matz getting sorted out before thinking of backing him.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: Trevor Bauer and the Reds are -210 over the Pirates and Steven Brault and I have the Reds -170 in this one.

Cleveland at Detroit: Shane Bieber and the Indians are hefty -177 road favorites in this one and I have Cleveland -260 over Spencer Turnbull. Turnbull has had a few decent start, but the Tigers don’t hit RHP well and now are facing a tough one.

Atlanta at Miami: Battle of left-handers here, with Fried and Castano taking the mound. The Braves are -177 and I made Atlanta -150. Fried is off to a solid start this year, while Castano didn’t show a whole lot in his first start of the season.

Washington at Baltimore: Patrick Corbin and Asher Wojciechowski get the starts here and Wojo hasn’t pitched bad for the Orioles but hasn’t gotten a lot of support. I have the Nats -210 and they’re -172.

Seattle at Houston: The Astros are -210 with Cristian Javier starting against Nick Margevicious and I have Houston -205. Javier hasn’t been bad in his limited starts.

Texas at Colorado: Kyle Gibson and German Marquez get the starts in this one and the Rockies are -160. Marquez has pitched well to start the season but has some ugly numbers going back to last season. Gibson has been pretty average dating back to last year and hasn’t been bad this season. I made the Rockies -105 in this one and will go ahead and take a stab on the Rangers +150 at William Hill. Will just wager .3 units to win .45 since I have the Rockies as the slightest of favorites and this is just a small value play.

Record: 18-19 (+2.00)

 

8/14/20

A few more games on the slate for Friday, but not all of them with confirmed starters, so we’ll do our usual and look at the games with lines and confirmed starting pitchers.

Washington at Baltimore: Stephen Strasburg gets the start for the Nats, while Tommy Milone goes for Baltimore. The Nationals are -172 at William Hill and I have them at -145.

Cleveland at Detroit: Aaron Civale has been an under machine since joining the Cleveland rotation, with the Tribe going 2-11, as they allow just 2.77 runs per game when he starts. Unfortunately, the Indians only score the same 2.77 runs in his starts. Here, he’ll face veteran Ivan Nova and Cleveland is -177 and I made them -230.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: Sonny Gray and the Reds are -190 over Chad Kuhl and the Pirates and I made the Reds -250 in this one. The Reds are 15-7 with Gray on the mound at home going back to the start of last season.

Atlanta at Miami: Atlanta is -111 with Wright favored over Pablo Lopez and I made the Fish -114. The Braves with a significant hitting edge, but the Marlins get the nod on the mound.

Kansas City at Minnesota: Jakob Junis and Jake Odorizzi get the starts here and Odorizzi has been tough at home, with the Twins going 10-6 and allowing 3.25 runs in his home starts. The Twins are -172 and I made them -250.

Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs: The Brewers are -111 with Chatwood and Brandon Woodruff getting the starts and I have the Cubs -140. Will take the Cubs even for .3 units in this one. The Cubs are 5-1 with Chatwood at home.

Texas at Colorado: Lance Lynn and the Rangers are -125 over Castellani and the Rockies and I have the Rockies -120 in this one. Castellani just has the one start, making a number for him a bit tough, so will just stay away from this one.

Seattle at Houston: The Astros are -195 with Valdez and Kikuchi on the mound here. I have Houston -190 in this one.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels: Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers are -160 over Patrick Sandoval and I made the same line.

San Diego at Arizona: Dinelson Lamet and the Padres are -130 over Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks. This is the third time Arizona has seen Lamet this year. I have Arizona -130, so will take Arizona +120 for .3 units.

Oakland at San Francisco: Frankie Montas and the A’s are -195 over Johnny Cueto and I made Oakland -200. The A’s are 7-3 on the road with Montas on the hill dating back to last season.

Record: 17-18 (+1.94)

 

8/13/20

A fairly small slate of games for Thursday with probable starters named for all of them, so we’ll take a look at all the games on the slate for today.

Washington at New York Mets: Austin Voth and David Peterson gets the starts in this one and the Mets have switched and become the favorites after the Nats opened -110. Washington is getting the majority of the wagers in the game, but are just 2-8 in Voth’s starts since the beginning of last year. I have the Mets -145 in this one and they’re -121 at William Hill.

Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs: Brett Anderson and Yu Darvish are expected to start here and there’s no line at William Hill, although BetMGM has the Cubs -186. Darvish has thrown well this season, while Anderson is just making his third start of the year after a blister. I have the Brewers -160 in this one and will take the Brewers +165 for .4 units to win .66 units.

Baltimore at Philadelphia: The Phillies and Jake Arrieta are -180 over Thomas Eshelman and the Orioles. Eshelman has pitched well in relief this year and is making his first start, against his former organization. I have the Phillies -134 in this one.

Tampa Bay at Boston: Tyler Glasnow and the Rays are -153 in this one against left-hander Kyle Hart, who is making his MLB debut. Hart was decent in the minors last season, sporting a 3.52 ERA in AA and AAA. He fanned 140 in 156 innings. I have Tampa Bay -142.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: Trevor Williams and Anthony DeSclafani take the mound in this one and the Reds are -177. Williams is 0-3, but hasn’t pitched bad and has a 3.52 ERA. The Pirates have scored six runs in his three starts this season. I have the Reds -155.

San Diego at Los Angeles Dodgers: Julio Urias was pushed forward a day to this one and the Dodgers are -140 over Chris Paddack and the Padres. Paddack is off to a solid start, but has been better at home than on the road, while San Diego hasn’t fared as well against LHP on the road. I made the Dodgers -220. Since the start of last season, the Padres are 9-4 with Paddack at home, allowing 3.23 runs per game, and 6-11 when he starts on the road, allowing 4.71 runs per game.

Record: 17-17 (+2.34)

 

8/12/20

Heading the wrong way with the baseball plays, although that’s going to happen when you’re betting primarily underdogs. Your losing streaks will be longer and your losses will be uglier, you just hope to see a profit when everything is said and done when the final out of the World Series is made.

Haven’t felt real confident this season, which is one reason why the wagers have been smaller than normal lately. When we have a few more games in the books, will get after it a little harder, as it’s still a matter of trying to gauge how the teams react in different situations.

A few games off the board still, so we’ll look at the ones with lines at William Hill and scheduled starters.

Chicago White Sox at Detroit: The White Sox are -121 with Dylan Cease and Matthew Boyd on the mound. I have the Sox -195 in this one and they’re getting bet pretty well this morning.

Arizona at Colorado: The Diamondbacks are -111 with Weaver and Senzatela on the hill and I have Arizona -190. Despite some ugly numbers by Senzatela at home, the Rockies are 9-4 when he starts there since the start of last season and he’s looked so far this year.

Oakland at Los Angeles Angels: The Angels and Griffin Canning are -105 over the A’s and Chris Bassitt, while I have the home team as slight favorites at -126.

Chicago Cubs at Cleveland: Carlos Carassco and the Tribe is -121 over Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs, while I have Cleveland -141. Hendricks has been better at home.

Miami at Toronto: Nate Pearson is -160 over Jordan Yamamoto in this one and I have the Jays -230. Yamamoto started out strong last season, but hasn’t done a whole lot since then.

Kansas City at Cincinnati: The Reds and Wade Miley are -121 over Keller and the Royals and I have Kansas City -125 in this one, which is the only underdog I have winning, so will take the Royals +110 for .40 units.

Baltimore at Philadelphia: The Phillies and Zach Eflin are -177 over Wade LeBlanc and the Orioles and I have the home team -250. Eflin has had a couple of bad home starts that affect his numbers, but he’s been solid for the most part.

Minnesota at Milwaukee: Kenta Maeda and the Twins are -140 over Eric Lauer and the Brewers and I made the Twins -110 due to their hitting against LHP.

Tampa Bay at Boston: Blake Snell and the Rays are -157 at the Red Sox and Zack Godley and I’d probably would be on Boston if anybody else was starting for the Sox, although Godley looked good last start. Snell hasn’t been nearly as effective away from home, as the Rays are 4-10 in his road starts since last season. I have Tampa Bay -105.

Seattle at Texas: Jordan Lyles and the Rangers are -125 over Taijuan Walker and Seattle, while I made Texas -148.

San Diego at Los Angeles Dodgers: Julio Urias and the Dodgers are -172 over Zach Davies and the Padres. I have the Dodgers -193.

Record: 16-17 (+1.90)

 

8/11/20

Coming off an ugly night all the way around, so will look to get things turned around. Lots of games on the slate.

Miami at Toronto: The Jays are hosting the Marlins in Buffalo and Ryu is -153 over Hernandez at William Hill. Ryu had a solid start last time out and I have the Jays -167.

Kansas City at Cincinnati: Luis Castillo and the Reds are -177 over Kris Bubic, which might be a bit on the high side, although Castillo threw better than his stats last game. I have the Reds -133.

Atlanta at New York Yankees: Toussaint and Jordan Montgomery are slated to go here, and the Yanks are -135. Toussaint is coming off his best career start and I have New York -120.

Baltimore at Philadelphia: Alex Cobb and Zack Wheeler are both off to good starts this year and the Phillies are -177, another game where the price is a bit higher than it should be, as I have Philadelphia -113.

Chicago Cubs at Cleveland: The Cubs and Jon Lester are -111 over Adam Plutko and I have the Indians -180. We’re seeing some reverse movement towards the Cubbies, but will take a shot on Cleveland even for .40 units.

Chicago White Sox at Detroit: Gio Gonzalez and the Sox are -111 over the Tigers and Alexander and I have Chicago -140. Detroit is seeing a bit of action in this one and will stay away.

Washington at New York Mets: Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello get the starts here and the Nats are -140 and I made them -195, but Scherzer left his last start after just one inning due to a hamstring.

Minnesota at Milwaukee: The Brewers are -111 with Josh Lindblom and Tyler Clippard going in this one. I have the Twins -132 but neither pitcher with many starts in the books.

Arizona at Colorado: This is -105 both ways, with Zac Gallen and Kyle Freeman getting the starts. I have Arizona -145 in this one and would lean to the Diamondbacks, but Freeland is looking like his old self. That, along with Arizona’s four runs in three away games vs. southpaws, will keep me away.

Seattle at Texas: The Rangers are down to -130 with Minor and Gonzales and the Mariners are getting the bulk of the wagers here. I have Texas -117.

Oakland at Los Angeles Angels: The Angels and Dylan Bundy are -144 and I have this one closer with the Angels -107. Mike Fiers gets the start for the A’s.

San Diego at Los Angeles Dodgers: Ross Stripling and the Dodgers are -153 over Garrett Richards and the Padres and I made Los Angeles -215, as Stripling has been strong at home.

Record: 16-16 (+2.30)

 

8/10/20

More of the same for Monday, so we’ll look at the games where we have lines and confirmed starters at William Hill.

Atlanta at Philadelphia: Sean Newcomb and Aaron Nola get the starts in this one and the Phillies are -153. Newcomb is off to a bit of a slow start and Nola is coming off a strong effort, so this one is a little higher than it should be. I have the Phillies -110.

Chicago White Sox at Detroit: Dallas Keuchel and the Sox are -140 over Michael Fulmer and the Tigers and I have Chicago -112. The Tigers have hit left-handers well at home, but Fulmer is still a big question mark.

Washington at New York Mets: Patrick Corbin and the Nationals are down a little bit from -125 to the current -121. Corbin is off to a fair start, while Matz has labored a little bit, but this line is a bit of an over-reaction to a couple of games. I have the Mets -160 and will take New York +110 for .6 units to win .66.

Minnesota at Milwaukee: This one is -105 both directions with Randy Dobnak and Adrian Houser getting the respective starts. Dobnak is off to a great start, but Houser is no slouch himself. I have the Brewers -138 and will take a shot on Milwaukee -105 for .63 units to win .60.

Arizona at Colorado: Robbie Ray looks to get on track for the Diamondbacks, as Arizona visits Jon Gray and the Rockies in this one. The Rockies opened -140 and the line is all the way down to Colorado -121 even though the home team is getting a big majority of the wagers. I have Colorado -200 but no interest in laying the odds here.

Seattle at Texas: We rode the Rangers to victory the past three games but think they might be a bit over-priced in this one. Kyle Gibson is -180 over Justin Dunn and I have it a bit closer at Texas -138.

Oakland at Los Angeles Angels: The A’s put their winning streak on the line tonight when they face Julio Teheran and the Angels. Sean Manaea hasn’t pitched well and it’s reasonable to expect Teheran to improve a little with his second start. I have Oakland -143 and the line is currently A’s -125.

San Diego at Los Angeles Dodgers: Dustin May and the Dodgers are -153 and I made them -220 over Garrett Richards and the Padres. May just faced the Padres in a strong outing, so it will be a question of how he fares coming right back against them.

Record: 16-14 (+3.53)

 

8/9/20

A split with Saturday’s baseball and it’s more of the same today, with a few games either not on the board or having unlisted starters, so as usual, we’ll look at the games where the starters are listed and lines up at William Hill.

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay: Decent matchup here, with James Paxton and Charlie Morton getting the starts. The Rays are back up to -115 in this one after dropping slightly earlier this morning. I have Tampa Bay -143 in this one.

Miami at New York Mets: Jacob deGrom and the Mets are -240 over Pablo Lopez and the Marlins, which is down a little bit from earlier today. I made the Mets -225 in this one.

Toronto at Boston: This one was posted a little late, with Matt Shoemaker getting the start for the Jays and Nathan Eovaldi starting for the Red Sox. Boston is -153 and I made the Red Sox -120 here.

Cleveland at Chicago White Sox: Another solid pitching matchup, with Shane Bieber and Lucas Giolito squaring off in this one. Cleveland is -130 and I have the Indians -168 based on Giolito’s home and away numbers. The Indians are getting bet pretty good, with more than three-quarters of the early wagers.

Cincinnati at Milwaukee: Sonny Gray and Brandon Woodruff start in this one and the Brewers are -115. Both pitchers with solid numbers in today’s location. I have Milwaukee -152 in this one.

Los Angeles Angels at Texas: Andrew Heaney and Lance Lynn get the starts in this one and the Angels are down to -115 after being -125 earlier this morning in a game that seen the Rangers get the bulk of the wagers. I have Texas -185, so will play Texas +105 for .40 units to win +.42. Not overly thrilled with the number of wagers Texas is getting, so just a small play in this one.

Colorado at Seattle: German Marquez and the Rockies are down to -153 in this one against Justus Sheffield and I made Colorado -155. The Rockies were -170 earlier and are getting more than 60% of the wagers.

San Francisco at Los Angeles Dodgers: Kevin Gausman and Walker Buehler get the starts in this one and the Dodgers are -295. Buehler hasn’t been all that impressive in his two starts, but the Dodgers allow 1.1 fewer runs when he starts at home compared to on the road. I have the Dodgers -250 in this one.

Arizona at San Diego: Madison Bumgarner and Dinelson Lamet take the mound in this one and the Padres are -153. Bumgarner has struggled, while Lamet has gotten off to a good start, so can see why the line is as high as it is. I made the Padres -127 in this one.

Record: 15-14 (+3.11)

 

8/8/20

More of the same today, with not all starters confirmed and a few games off the board. Coming off a 1-2 night, although we were able to minimize the damage a little bit, with smaller than normal bet sizes and winning our biggest priced underdog, so when it was all said and done a -.32 night.

Cleveland at Chicago: The Indians and Zach Plesac are -115 at William Hill and Matt Foster is making his first start for the Sox. Foster has only pitched 3 2/3 innings in three appearances, so can’t imagine him going more than three innings here. I have Cleveland -110.

Detroit at Pittsburgh: Ivan Nova and Derek Holland get the starts in this one and the Pirates are -115. Both starters are off to above average beginnings to the season and I have Pittsburgh -117.

Houston at Oakland: Frankie Montas and the A’s are -140 and I have it at -230 over Framber Valdez, who had some ugly road numbers last year, which is the main reason for my line. Valdez looked solid against the Angels on the road, so no interest in playing this one even though Montas has been strong at home.

Minnesota at Kansas City: Jake Odorizzi and Danny Duffy take the mound here and the Twins are -153. This is Odorizzi’s first appearance this season and Duffy is coming off a solid start even though he took the loss. I have Minnesota -175.

Los Angeles Angels at Texas: Patrick Sandoval makes his second start for the Angels, as does Kolby Allard for the Rangers. Both were solid in their debuts. Sandoval hasn’t pitched all that bad despite still looking for his first MLB win, while Allard has been slightly better. The Angels are -140 I have Texas -135 and will take the Rangers at +130 for .5 units to win +.65.

Cincinnati at Milwaukee: This one sees the Brewers and Brett Anderson -111 over Anthony Sclafani and the Reds and I have the Reds -130. Anderson only lasted three innings in first start after taking one off the foot.

Colorado at Seattle: The Mariners are -111 with Nick Margevicius on the mound against Ryan Castellani. Margevicius didn’t have the greatest of stats last year, but is another pitcher who saw numbers distorted a little bit due to a few appearances in Coors Field. Castellani pitched well in spring training but his minor league numbers have gotten worse as he climbed the ladder. Going to take a shot on Seattle -111 and risk .55 units to win .50.

Arizona at San Diego: Merrill Kelly and Chris Paddack get the starts in this one and the Padres are -157. I have it a little closer at -135 but no interest in playing.

San Francisco at Los Angeles Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers are -300 over Johnny Cueto and the Giants and I have Los Angeles -270. Cueto’s best start of the year was opening day against the Dodgers.

Record: 14-13 (+3.01)

 

8/7/20

We got what I believe is our first ninth-inning win of the season last night after dropping a few of them earlier, as Arizona rallied for the win. We’re faced with the usual assortment of non-listed starters, so we’ll look at the games that have lines and two confirmed pitchers.

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay: Decent game here, as Tanaka and the Yankees are -111 over Blake Snell and the Rays at William Hill. Yankees hit left-handers well on the road, going 18-6 and 17-7 in totals since the start of last year. Tampa with a big pitching edge, however, so I have New York -110.

Atlanta at Philadelphia: Kyle Wright and the Braves are now -111 over Vince Velasquez and the Phillies. Another game we’re right at the number, as I made Atlanta -110.

Minnesota at Kansas City: The Twins and Devin Smeltzer have come down a little bit from -160 to -153 over Jakub Junis and the Royals. Junis was awful at home last year, where the Royals allowed 6.06 runs per game with him on the mound, so I have Minnesota -225.

Cincinnati at Milwaukee: Trevor Bauer and the Reds have dropped from -125 to -115. Lauer is a hard pitcher to figure out, as his away numbers were ugly last year when he was with the Padres, but he was hammered in Colorado, with SD allowing 37 runs in his three starts. I have the Brewers -130 in this one and will make a .4 unit wager on the Brewers to win .42 units.

Cleveland at Chicago White Sox: Cleveland is now -115 in this one, with Civale and Cease the listed starters. Civale has been strong since joining the rotation and I made Cleveland -190.

Los Angeles Angels at Texas: Canning and the Angels are -160 over Jordan Lyles and the Rangers. Canning has been sharp this season, while Lyles didn’t have his best outing last time on the mound. I have the Rangers -155 here and will make a .4 unit play on the Rangers to win .58 units.

Houston at Oakland: Chris Bassitt and the A’s are all the way up to -125 over the Astros, who have Zack Greinke listed. Oakland is getting some wise guy money here. I have Houston -135 but no interest in playing this one.

Arizona at San Diego: Zach Davies and the Padres are -121 over Luke Weaver and I have the Diamondbacks -135. Weaver hasn’t been sharp in either of his two starts following season-ending surgery last year, as he’s done well in the first three innings both games, only to see things quickly fall apart in the fourth. One final small play for today, with .5 units to win .55 on Weaver and the Diamondbacks.

San Francisco at Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers are Julio Urias are -260 over Jeff Samardzija and the Giants and I have LA -209. Urias has pitched well against the Giants in the past.

Colorado at Seattle: The Mariners and Kikuchi are up to -121 over Antonio Senzatela and the Rockies. Colorado has had a hard time putting up runs away from home, so I have Seattle -142.

Record: 13-11 (+3.33)

 

8/6/20

We won our small play on Wednesday, so are now 2-2 with the smaller plays and are looking at another tough card for Thursday, which is how it goes at times. A few games still not posted at William Hill so we’ll look at the games we have lines and listed starters on.

Minnesota at Pittsburgh: The Twins and Kenta Maeda are now -210 over JT Brubaker, who makes his first start after a couple of solid relief outings. I have the Twins -137 in this one, but basically a guess of how the Pirates’ hurler will do. A little value on the home dog, but hard to get excited about a 2-10 Pittsburgh squad.

San Francisco at Colorado: This one just hit the boards, where former Rockie Tyler Anderson faces off against Kyle Freeland. The Rockies are -190 and I have them -188, as both pitchers have some ugly numbers. Freeland was solid in his first home start this year.

Texas at Oakland: The A’s are now up to -153 with Mike Minor and Mike Fiers getting the starts. Both pitchers have thrown well in their locations today and I made Oakland -136.

Los Angeles Angels at Seattle: Dylan Bundy and the Angels are down to -160 over Taijuan Walker and the Mariners. Bundy has thrown well for the Angels and Walker is coming off a strong effort last time out. I made the Angels -119.

New York Yankees at Philadelphia: Jordan Montgomery starts for New York and Zach Eflin gets the ball for the Phillies. New York is -145 which is a little on the low side, although Montgomery only has a couple of starts to draw from. Eflin wasn’t very effective last year and I have New York -195.

Cincinnati vs. Cleveland: Luis Castillo and Carlos Carrasco start in this one, where the Indians are -115. Carrasco was solid in his debut but was touched up for three solo home runs last outing. I have Cleveland -130.

Toronto at Atlanta: Touki Toussaint and the Braves are down to -115 over Nate Pearson and Toronto. Pearson had a great debut and was close to 100 mph, while Toussaint threw four scoreless innings. I made the Braves -132.

Chicago Cubs at Kansas City: Tyler Chatwood and Chicago are -160 and Chatwood was brilliant last time out. Keller is making his first start this season and I have the Cubbies -195.

Houston at Arizona: We’ve lost a lot of value here, as Brandon Bielak and the Astros are now -110 after being -130 earlier this morning against Zac Gallen and Arizona. I have the Diamondbacks -140 and will take Arizona even for .6 units.

Milwaukee at Chicago White Sox: Gio Gonzales and the Sox are -115 over Josh Linblom and the Brewers, while I have Chicago -123. Gonzales didn’t throw bad in his first start for Chicago.

Record: 12-11 (+2.73)

 

8/5/20

We dropped our small play Tuesday night to fall to 11-11 on the season but are showing a profit of a couple of units, which is the advantage of taking underdogs. Another ugly card, at least from our perspective, as I have all of the favorites winning.

A few of the games without starters listed and a couple still off the boards, so we’ll make do with what we have.

New York Mets at Washington: Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer are the listed starters for this one, where the Nats are -213. I have Washington -188 in what looks to be a high-scoring game, but in no rush to play the total.

Boston at Tampa Bay: The Rays and Ryan Yarbrough are -145 over Martin Perez and the Red Sox and I made Tampa -135. Perez has some ugly numbers, but his teams are 9-5 when he starts on the road dating back to the start of last season.

Minnesota at Pittsburgh: Former Pirates fan Randy Dobnak gets the start against his childhood team, while Trevor Williams starts for the home team. The Twins have dropped a little bit this morning, moving from -180 to -172 and I have them at -160. Dobnak grew up in the Pittsburgh area, but without any fans at the game, it won’t have the same significance, without friends and family in the stadium.

Toronto at Atlanta: Ryu and Sean Newcomb get the starts here in a battle of pitchers who haven’t lived up to expectations in the early going. The Braves are down to -130 and I made Atlanta -144 in this one, with the Braves getting the offensive advantage.

Chicago Cubs at Kansas City: Yu Darvish and the Cubs are -203 over Kris Bubic and the Royals. I made this one -158 and looked at the Royals +1.5 (+115) but Kansas City was just 1-10 last year as a home dog against RHP and 4-7 on the run line in that situation.

Milwaukee at Chicago White Sox: The Sox are down to -115 with Keuchel and Houser the scheduled starters and I have the Sox -146. We are seeing the Brewers attract a little bit of money in this spot.

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego: Ross Stripling and the Dodgers are -125 over Garrett Richards and the Padres, while I have LA -190. Richards hasn’t looked bad this season and the Padres are seeing some slight sharp action in this one.

Houston at Arizona: Lance McCullers makes his third start of the season and has had mixed results, while Arizona has dropped Ray’s first two starts of the year. The Astros are -140, which is down from -157 earlier this morning, and I have Houston -110. Will play the home dog for .4 units to win .52 in what is by no means a strong play here.

Texas at Oakland: Sean Manaea and Kyle Gibson get the starts here and the A’s have dropped to -160 after being -172 earlier this morning. I made Oakland -200 in this one.

Record: 11-11 (+2.23)

 

8/4/20

We got the needed split with our two underdogs on Monday and now have a couple of more games with lines posted and starters named, although that doesn’t always equal better betting opportunities. A few games where starters haven’t been named, so we’ll skip those games.

Pittsburgh at Minnesota: Joe Musgrove and Jose Berrios get the starts in this one and the Twins are -210 at William Hill. I have a little closer, with Minnesota -145, due to the Twins allowing 4.88 runs per game when Berrios starts at home.

Cleveland at Cincinnati: Shane Bieber and the Indians are -157 over the Reds and Tyler Mahle and I have the Indians -205 but can’t lay that type of price with Cleveland struggling at the plate so much.

Boston at Tampa Bay: Nathan Eovaldi faces his former team here, while Tampa counters with Charlie Morton. The Rays are down to -140 and I have them at -175.

Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee: Brandon Woodruff and the Brewers are -125 over Lucas Giolito and the White Sox and I have the Sox -105, but not going to take our man Giolito in this one, as the Brewers are 12-1 with Woodruff on the mound since the start of last year. We’ve ridden Giolito a bit the past two seasons, but it looks as though bettors have caught up and removed most of the value in his games.

Kansas City at Chicago Cubs: Brady Singer and Kyle Hendricks get the starts in this one and the Cubs are -195. Singer has had a couple of decent starts to begin his career, but the level of competition climbs a little here. I have the Cubs -230.

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego: Dustin May and the Dodgers are -125 over Dinelson Lamet and the Padres and I have LA -190 in this one, but a little hesitant, as some sharp money is appearing on the home dog in this one.

Texas at Oakland: Lance Lynn gets the start for Texas and he’ll face Jesus Luzardo, the A’s top pitching prospect. Lynn was solid on the road last year, with Texas allowing just 3.82 runs, but the team was 6-11. I made Oakland -133.

Los Angeles Angels at Seattle: Andrew Heaney and the Angels are -195 against Justin Dunn and the Mariners in a rematch of the Angels’ 10-7 win last week. I have this one even and will take the Mariners for a small wager, risking .4 units to win .7 at +175. Not a strong play, as you can tell, but one worth a stab since there’s really nothing else that stands out.

Record: 11-10 (+2.63)

8/3/20

Another small slate of games for Monday, where we have a few contests off the board due to unconfirmed starting pitchers, so we’ll make due with what we have.

Cleveland at Cincinnati: The Reds and Sonny Gray have moved from -130 to -140 at William Hill over the Indians and Zach Plesac in a battle of pitchers who have started the season in impressive fashion. The Reds have been more potent offensively, which really isn’t saying a whole lot, so I have the Reds -191.

Philadelphia at New York Yankees: Gerrit Cole and the Yankees are -295 over Jake Arrieta and the Phillies, while I made New York -238. Arrieta says he’s feeling healthy and he’ll likely bounce back a little this season, as it’s a contract year for him, but throwing against the Yankees isn’t the easiest way to pad your stats.

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves: The Mets and Jacob deGrom are -121 over Mike Soroka and the Braves. Both starters have been pitching well and while Soroka isn’t as dominating as deGrom when both are on, he’s one of the pitchers who can equalize the Mets’ starter. New York is 7-8 in deGrom’s road starts since the start of last season, while Atlanta is 10-3 when Soroka starts at home. Will take a shot on Atlanta +110 in this spot.

Kansas City at Chicago Cubs: Alec Mills and the Cubs are -157 over Danny Duffy and the Royals, which is up a couple of cents from earlier this morning. I have the Cubs -150 in this one.

San Francisco at Colorado: The Rockies are starting Chi Chi Gonzalez, who is making his first start of the season, while the Giants haven’t named a starting pitcher yet. Still, the line dropped from Colorado -140 to Rockies -135.

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego: Walker Buehler and the Dodgers have moved from -135 to -145 against Chris Paddack. Los Angeles has won the last five games played in San Diego and are 13-6 against the Padres since the beginning of last year. Buehler has better numbers at home, but has done a solid job away from home in his last five starts, where the Dodgers are 5-0 and allowed nine runs. Paddack is a better pitcher at home, where the Padres are 8-3 when he starts and allow 3.18 runs per game. I made the Padres -102 and will go against my Dodgers once again with San Diego +135.

Oakland at Seattle: The A’s and Frankie Montas are -180 over Justus Sheffield and Seattle. I have Oakland -232, as the A’s hit left-handers on the road pretty well. Sheffield hasn’t been great, but Seattle is 5-3 with him on the mound since the start of last season.

Record 10-9 (+2.28)

8/2/20

Was way off the mark on Saturday, as we suffered our first big loss of the season, and that’s going to happen on occasion when you bet primarily underdogs. It counts the same as one of the ninth-inning leads our teams have blown, and all you can do is march on to the next day.

I’ve remarked on ugly cards already this season, but this one is going to be tough to top in terms of ugliness. Just a few games with lines posted at William Hill and I have all the favorites winning, so just small plays today.

Tampa Bay at Baltimore: Yonny Chirinos and Tommy Milone are the expected starters in this one and the Rays are -190 at William Hill. Baltimore is a dismal 18-39 after a win since the start of last season, but the Rays are just 38-34 after a loss. Tampa Bay is 42-29 when facing a team it lost to last time. I made the Rays -214 in this one.

New York Mets at Atlanta: David Peterson and Kyle Wright are expected to start for their respective teams in this one, which is -105 both ways. Peterson was solid at Boston in his MLB debut, while Wright ran into trouble in the third inning in his first start. I made Atlanta -107 in this one.

Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs: Battle of left-handers here, as Steven Brault faces Jon Lester. The Cubs are -203 and I have it a little closer at -155. Brault only pitched a couple of innings in his first start and the Pirates will probably try to get three or four out of him here. Lester was strong in his debut.

San Diego at Colorado: The Padres and Zach Davies are -125 at Colorado, who will throw Antonio Senzatela. Senzatela is a little like Kyle Freeland in yesterday’s write-up, where after a decent 2018 season he fell apart last year. Even though the Rockies allowed 6.75 runs per game in his home starts last year, Colorado was 8-4 in games he started and are 20-9 lifetime with Senzatela on the mound at home. I made the Padres -150 based on the numbers but you can’t overlook the Rockies’ record with Antonio on the mound, so I’ll risk .4 units to win .46 on the home underdog here.

Texas at San Francisco: The Giants are -111 in this one even though they haven’t named a starting pitcher. Even the MLB site doesn’t have anybody listed, so will have to skip this one.

Houston at Los Angeles Angels: Josh James and the Astros are -121 over Ohtani and the Angels and I made the Astros -110. James allowed three runs in three innings in his debut, while Ohtani was unable to record an out.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona: Clayton Kershaw gets the start for the Dodgers against Merrill Kelly and the Dodgers are -177. The Dodgers are just 7-11 in Kershaw’s career starts in Arizona, dropping four of the last five. I have the Dodgers -127 so I’ll take the Diamondbacks for .5 units to win .81 in this one.

Record: 9-8 (+2.32)

 

8/1/20

After seeing our teams blow a couple of leads, we finally got a comeback in our favor on Friday, as we now head into somewhat on an ugly Saturday card. As has been the case all season, not all of the games are posted at William Hill, so we’ll take a look at the games that have lines posted. With most sportsbooks going to “action” instead of “listed starters” for this season, I’m using the probable starters listed on the MLB site.

Cincinnati at Detroit: Trevor Bauer and Michael Fulmer get the starts in this one, where the Reds are -172. Fulmer makes his second start after Tommy John surgery and I have the Reds -199.

Chicago White Sox and Kansas City: Gio Gonzalez and Roland Bolanos are expected to take the mound in this one, where Chicago is -135. Bolanos wasn’t bad in his first start but I have the Sox -183.

New York Mets at Atlanta: The Braves are -125 in this one, where Michael Wacha gets the start for New York and Touki Toussaint is expected to start for Atlanta. Wacha was strong in his season debut, while Toussaint was roughed up out of the bullpen. I have the Mets -130 and will take New York +115 in this spot.

Cleveland at Minnesota: Carlos Carrasco had a solid return to the mound, but hasn’t been as good on the road as he has in Cleveland. The Twins and Kenta Maeda are -121 and I made Minnesota -175 in this one.

Boston at New York Yankees: The Yankees and Tanaka are -177 over Zack Godley and the Red Sox. Godley was solid in relief in his first appearance this year and I have the Yankees -196.

Houston at Los Angeles Angeles: Zack Greinke and Griffin Canning get the starts in this one and the Astros are -153. I have Houston -127 but without Mike Trout in the lineup it’s tough to back the Angels in this one.

Tampa Bay at Baltimore: Tyler Glasnow and the Rays are -213 at the Orioles, who will give the ball to Wade LeBlanc. LeBlanc got the win against the Red Sox in his season debut but wasn’t all that sharp. I have Tampa Bay -200.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona: The Dodgers are -140 in this one with Julio Urias getting the start against Luke Weaver. Arizona hits left-handers decent at home and I have this one even.

San Diego at Colorado: Battle of left-handed starters here, with Joey Lucchesi and Kyle Freeland getting the starts. The Padres are -121 and I have the Rockies winning, but Freeland has allowed eight or more runs in seven of his last 10 home starts. In 2018, Freeland allowed just 2.5 runs per game in 14 home starts, allowing four runs or less in 13 of those 14 starts. Will stay away from this one until we see which version of Freeland we’re going to get this year.

Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs: The Cubs and Tyler Chatwood are -153 over Mitch Keller and the Pirates and I have Chicago -230. Both starters were solid in their season debuts, so will stay away.

Record: 9-7 (+3.32)

7/31/20

A little surprised at the overnight baseball offerings at William Hill this morning, as several games where starters look to be set are off the board, while a couple of games where starters aren’t etched in stone are posted. We’ll work with the games that are posted.

St. Louis at Milwaukee: The Cardinals are -140 in this one, which is a bit on the high side, as Brett Anderson was solid last season and pitched better away from Oakland Coliseum. Still, he missed his first start with a blister, so not sure what we’ll get from him here. I have the Cardinals and Jack Flaherty -115 in this one.

Boston at New York Yankees: The Bronx Bombers are -203 with Jordan Montgomery getting the start against Boston’s Ryan Weber, who was roughed up in his first outing. Question marks with both starters and I have New York -180.

New York Mets at Atlanta: Rick Porcello and Sean Newcomb are the expected starters here, and the Braves have dropped to -130 after opening -150. Atlanta hammered Porcello in his first start for the Mets and Newcomb lasted until the fourth inning. I have the Braves -202 but no real interest in this one.

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City: Big step up for Kris Bubic, who pitched in A baseball last season and now goes against Dallas Keuchel and a White Sox team that hits left-handers decent on the road. Chicago is -177 in this one and I have them -200 here.

San Diego at Colorado: Jon Gray and the Rockies are -111 over Garrett Richards and the Padres in a game that has seen the line come down a little bit. Richards looked sharp in his first outing, as did Gray. I have Colorado -200.

Houston at Los Angeles Angels: Lance McCullers had a solid return after surgery and the Angels will counter with Matt Andreise, who had a strong relief outing on Sunday. Houston is -160 in this one and I have them -155.

Texas at San Francisco: Mike Minor gets the start for the Rangers, who are down to -135 in this one. The Giants are expected to start Logan Webb. Minor was tough on the road last year, with Texas allowing 3.12 runs and San Francisco struggled to score at home. I have Texas -163.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona: The Dodgers are -140 and I’m seeing Tony Gonsolin getting the ball for Los Angeles against Zac Gallen. Gallen struggled with his control a little in his first outing but has been solid at home, going 4-1 last year after coming to Arizona, including a 5-4 win over Gonsolin and the Dodgers. I made Arizona -150, so will take the Diamondbacks +130 in this one.

Oakland at Seattle: Sean Manaea and the A’s are -180 against Taijuan Walker and Seattle. Neither pitcher was sharp in their debut, although Walker has a better excuse, as he tries to bounce back from Tommy John surgery. I have Oakland -177 in this one.

Record 8-7 (+2.02)

07/30/20

A slightly smaller schedule of games for Thursday, as we come into the day all even with the record after the Royals couldn’t hold on to an early four-run lead. A few more plays than usual today.

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds: Yu Darvish and Luis Castillo get the starts in this one, where the Reds are -121 at William Hill. I gave the Cubs slight advantages in both pitching in scoring in this one and have Chicago -130, so will take a shot on Chicago +110 in this one.

New York Yankees at Baltimore: JA Happ and the Yankees are -213 over John Means and the Orioles in an interesting game. The Yankees are beasts against LHP on the road, where they averaged 7.59 runs per game last year, while Means is tough at home, where the Orioles allowed three or fewer runs in 11 of his 16 starts. New York roughed him up in a 14-2 victory last season, so will stay clear of this one, where I have New York -182.

Boston at New York Mets: Another matchup of southpaws, Steven Matz and the Mets are -153 over Martin Perez, which is pretty much where I have this one, as I made New York -155.

Cleveland at Minnesota: This one is -105 both ways with Shane Bieber and Jose Berrios getting the starts. Berrios wasn’t as effective at home as he was on the road last year, where the Twins allowed 5.07 runs when he started. I have Cleveland -147 and will take a shot on Cleveland -105 in this one.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Yet another battle of left-handed starters, as Ryan Yarbrough and Max Fried take the mound in this one and the two offenses are pretty even here, with the Rays scoring 5.21 runs against LHP on the road and the Braves scoring 5.26 runs per game at home. Yarbrough allowed over 1.0 fewer runs, however, so I have Tampa Bay -147 and will take a stab on the Rays at +125.

Kansas City at Detroit: Brady Singer and the Royals are -125 over Ivan Nova and the Tigers. Singer had a solid debut, while Nova wasn’t too bad at home last season. Neither team hits the ball that well against RHP, but the Tigers are worse, so I have the Royals -135.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona: Ross Stripling and the Dodgers are -145 over Robbie Ray and the Diamondbacks, while I have this one a little closer, with the Dodgers at -110. Los Angeles is pretty average on the road against left-handers, so the scoring is pretty even, while Stripling has slightly better numbers.

Seattle at Los Angeles Angels: Marco Gonzales and Dylan Bundy get the starts in this one and the Angels are -195. Bundy was strong in his season debut, while Gonzales wasn’t, but a bit of an overreaction here, as this line is simply too high. This one is much closer to even and I have Seattle -105, so will take Seattle +175 in this one.

Record: 6-6 (+0.27)

MLB 7/29 –

Once again, several games are off the board due to teams not naming their starting pitchers, as we’re coming off another split on a night Joe Kelly became an instant hero to thousands of baseball fans.

Colorado at Oakland: German Marquez and Frankie Montas get the starts for their respective teams in this one and William Hill has Oakland -140. Both pitchers were solid a year ago but Montas was a little better at home, so I have Oakland -160.

Arizona at Texas: The Rangers and Lance Lynn are down to -125 over Madison Bumgarner and the Diamondbacks after opening -140. Lynn was strong at home last year, so I made Texas -180.

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland: The White Sox and Giolito are -111 at Cleveland, where Zach Plesac gets the start for the Tribe. Was hoping Giolito’s poor outing last time would make him an underdog here, so will stay away from this one, as I have Chicago -120.

Washington at Toronto: The Nationals are technically the road team in this one, which is being played at Nationals Park. Washington is -160 with Scherzer starting against Nate Pearson, while I have Washington -178.

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati: Sonny Gray and the Reds are -111 against Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs after opening -125. Gray was tough at home last year, but favorites who have lost at least four straight have been a losing proposition over the years. I made the Reds -136.

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh: The Brewers and Brandon Woodruff are -153 at Pittsburgh for the third straight day, as Joe Musgrove starts for the Pirates. Woodruff was solid away from home a year ago and Musgrove was inconsistent, allowing 11 or more runs in five of his 16 starts and one run or less in four starts. I have Milwaukee -180.

Boston at New York Mets: Jacob deGrom and the Mets are -195 over Nathan Eovaldi and Boston, which is a little on the high side, but no real interest in taking Boston here, as I have the Mets as small favorites.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Mike Soroka and the Braves opened -140 and the line is down to -121 against Charlie Morton and Tampa. The Braves get slight advantages in both pitching and scoring, so I have Atlanta -160.

Kansas City at Detroit: The Tigers are -135 in this one with Danny Duffy and Matthew Boyd getting the starts. Both teams were better against left-handed starters a year ago, especially Detroit, which averaged nearly two more runs per game. Kansas City was strong on the road against LHP, so not a big difference in hitting, but Duffy with much better stats than Boyd. I made Kansas City -148, so will take the Royals +125 in this one.

San Diego at San Francisco: Chris Paddock and the Padres are -160 at the Giants, who will send Johnny Cueto to the mound and not sure what to make of Cueto, who wasn’t bad in his season debut. But the Giants were brutal at home last season against right-handers, averaging 3.31 runs per game. I have San Diego -187, which is probably too high.

Seattle at Los Angeles Angels: Andrew Heaney and the Angels are -210 over Dunn and the Mariners. Dunn started four games last year but only threw 6 2/3 innings. I have the Angeles -153 in this one.

Record: 6-5 (+1.27)

MLB Picks 7/28

Quite a few games without lines this morning due to pitchers not being names and the Miami Marlins ordeal. But as long as they play games, we’ll be here each morning looking for some worthwhile plays.

We ended up with a split and a tiny profit on Monday, as the Pirates blew a four-run ninth-inning lead, the second time that happened to us in three days. We’ll have a few like that that fall in our favor over the course of the year, so you just have to take those losses with a grain of salt.

Toronto at Washington: Tanner Roark gets the ball for the Blue Jays against one of his former teams and the Nationals will send Austin Voth to the mound. The Nationals are -135 at William Hill and I made this one even.

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati: Tyler Mahle and the Reds are -111 over Alec Mills and the Cubs in this one. Mahle completely fell apart at home down the stretch last year, as the Reds allowed 47 runs over his last five home starts. As a result, I have the Cubs -150 and will take Chicago +101 in this one.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay: The Rays are -125 in this one, with Chirinos on the mound, while Atlanta will counter with Kyle Wright. Tampa Bay was 7-3 last year after scoring 10 or more runs and I have Tampa Bay -140.

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh: The Brewers are once again -153 over Pittsburgh and Milwaukee is sending Josh Lindblom to the mound to face Derek Holland. I made the Brewers -115 in this one.

St. Louis at Minnesota: Martinez takes the mound for the first time since 2018 for the Cardinals and he draws Homer Bailey in this one. Bailey showed some signs of putting things together last year and I have the Twins -145.

Arizona at Texas: This one is -105 both ways, with Merrill Kelly starting for Arizona and Kyle Gibson getting the start for Texas. I have Texas -160 in this one, although Gibson might not enjoy the same success now that he’s pitching in Texas.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston: Walker Buehler and the Dodgers are -145 over Framber Valdez and the Astros in this one, which is simply too high given Buehler’s road performances a year ago. The Dodgers allowed 3.62 runs per game when Buehler started at home and 4.88 runs when he took the mound on the road. I made Houston -150 in this one and will go against my Dodgers and take the Astros +135.

Seattle at Los Angeles Angels: The Angels and Patrick Sandoval are -177 over Sheffield and the Mariners, which is a bit on the high side. I have this one much closer at Angels -112.

Colorado at Oakland: Daniel Mengden and the A’s are -157 over Antonio Senzatela and the Rockies. Senzatela was bad last year regardless of location, with the Rockies allowing 6.0 runs in his road starts, so I have Oakland -175.

Record: 5-4 (+1.26)

 

Related Articles

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *