Caught a break with the pitching change in the Miami game, especially since Weaver was horrible, so that left us with two plays, which we ended up splitting – getting the win when John Means threw a no-hitter and losing with the Nats when Fedde allowed a grand slam. At least yesterday makes all of the “lines are taken from William Hill and listed pitchers must start” typing worth it, as I’ve saddled myself with three or four losers the past 1+ seasons when I didn’t do it. And as always, lines are taken from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Milwaukee at Philadelphia: The Phillies are getting some action in this one, as the Brewers and Woodruff have moved from -120 to -105 after getting more than 70% of the wagers. Can’t blame anybody who likes Milwaukee in this spot, as I have them -208, but will respect the line move and just stay away from this one.
New York at St. Louis: Taijuan Walker and the Mets are -111 over John Gant and the Cardinals and I have St. Louis -175, so will take St. Louis +101. Definitely a little surprised the Mets are favored in this one, as the Cardinals have been the better hitting team against right-handed starters and even though both pitchers are allowing 2.4 runs per start, still believe in Gant’s ability to pitcher closer to those numbers than Walker.
Atlanta at Washington: Drew Smyly and the Braves are -115 over Jon Lester and the Nationals and I made Washington -200, so will take Washington +105 in this one. Smyly has been brutal this season, with his best outing of the season his first start, which was at Washington. He allowed four runs in six innings, although two of them unearned. Lester missed the beginning of the season, but wasn’t bad in his first start, although it did come against Miami. He wasn’t great, allowing seven base runners in five innings, but did make the pitches when he needed to.
Houston at New York Yankees: Gerrit Cole and the Yankees are -195 over Lance McCullers and the Astros, while I have New York -170. McCullers has never been an underdog this big and you have to go back to 2015 to find the only time he was ever +150, which was against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers, a game the Astros won 3-2. Houston is 5-3 as an underdog with him on the mound.
Record: 28-37 (-1.95)
Lost last night’s play in ugly fashion, but a better card today, where we’ll have three plays. All lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Arizona at Miami: The Marlins and Pablo Lopez are -135 over Luke Weaver and the Diamondbacks, while I have Arizona -146, so will go ahead and take Arizona +125 in this one. The Diamondbacks are averaging 5.08 runs per game against right-handed starters this season, while the Fish are scoring 3.85 runs against RHP. Arizona is 3-2 in the five games Weaver has started, while the Marlins are 2-4 in the six games Lopez has started. Lopez is throwing well, especially at home where he has a 1.02 ERA, but the Marlins have dropped all three of those games. Neither bullpen is much to get excited about here, with Miami’s a little better, but Arizona’s fares a little better on the road and the Marlins fare a little worse at home. Miami has the advantage on the mound, but the Diamondbacks have the edge at the plate.
Atlanta at Washington: Max Fried and the Braves are -130 over Erick Fedde and the Nationals, while I have Washington -125, so will take the Nationals +120 in this one. Fried returns after being out of action for three weeks and was getting rocked, while Fedde has put together some solid starts after getting rocked by Atlanta early in the season in a matchup of these same two pitchers, which Atlanta won 7-6. Neither pitcher was around for the third inning, with Fried allowing five runs in two innings and Fedde allowing 6 in 1 2/3.
Baltimore at Seattle: Yusei Kikuchi and the Mariners are -120 over John Means and the Orioles and I made Baltimore -178, so will go ahead and grab the Orioles +110 here. Kikuchi is coming off a strong start against the Astros, but hadn’t really done anything special prior to that outing. Means has been impressive this season, allowing just three runs in one start and that came against these same Mariners back on April 13, when he allowed three runs in 5 innings after giving up a pair of home runs. Kikuchi didn’t face the Orioles in that series.
Detroit at Boston: The Red Sox are -177 in this one and I have Perez -280 over Mize. The Tigers are 1-7 against LHP this year averaging 1.88 runs per game and all seven losses were by at least two runs. Perez is nothing to get excited about however, so will probably wait for another day to fade the Tigers on the run line against a LHP.
Record: 27-36 (-2.05)
The A’s managed to hold on for us Monday night, but another pretty tough slate, so just another one play. The Rockies were postponed and have a doubleheader on tap for today, while the Dodgers and the Cubs also have a doubleheader, where the Dodgers are slated to throw Bauer and Kershaw on what could be a tough day for Chicago. All lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati: Dylan Cease and Jeff Hoffman get the starts in this one and the Sox are -121, while I have Hoffman and the Reds -147, so will take the Reds +110 in this spot. Cease is coming off a solid outing against Detroit, which the White Sox won 11-0, but prior to that, Chicago had allowed 25 runs in his four starts, allowing seven runs three times and four in his other start. Hoffman hasn’t pitched poorly, but like Cease, has been victimized by poor relief work. This one comes down to offense and the Sox average 4.14 runs against right-handed starters this season, while the Reds are averaging 5.74 runs and more than 7 at home. Chicago is pretty even, avering 4.12 runs on the road, where they’ve gone 2-6 against RHP.
Atlanta at Washington: Huascar Ynoa and Joe Ross take the mound here and the Braves are -135, while I have Washington at -104, but not quite enough value here to take Washington. The Nats are averaging just 3.35 runs per game against right-handers, but have gone 6-3 at home, where they’re scoring 3.44 runs. They did lose to Huascar 2-0 at home last month.
Houston at New York: Greinke and German take the mound for this one in what could be the best game of the night and the Yankees are -115, while I have New York -108. German has been surprisingly good this season, with New York allowing 2.5 runs in his starts. The Astros are allowing 3.00 runs in Greinke’s starts, but have gone 5-1 with him on the mound this season.
Baltimore at Seattle: Lopez and Justin Dunn get the starts for their teams in this one and the Mariners are -130, while I made Seattle -127. Lopez has been saved by the bullpen this season, as his ERA is unsightly at 7.48, but the Orioles are allowing 5.8 runs when he starts, with the Baltimore relievers allowing just one run in 14 innings during his last three starts.
Record: 27-35 (-1.05)
We ended up splitting on Sunday after the late-night debacle in Philadelphia and now have a smaller slate of games and I have every favorite winning, so will just follow the money a little bit here this morning. All lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
San Francisco at Colorado: The Rockies are German Marquez are -121 over Sanchez and the Giants and I’m going to take Colorado -121 in this one. The Rockies are a dismal 2-11 on the road this year, but have gone 8-7 at home. Marquez is a better pitcher than he’s looked this season, having a couple of rough outings and lost both starts on the road in San Francisco. Sanchez lost his lone start against the Rockies this season and has been a little better at home this year, going 10-3 compared to 7-8 on the road. Marquez was 4-1 against the Giants before losing the two starts this year.
Toronto at Oakland: Frankie Montas and the Athletics are -121 against Steven Matz and the Jays and I’m pretty much close to the line, but taking a shot on Oakland -121 in this one. Matz was brutal last year, but had a couple of strong outings this year before reverting back to last year’s form in his last start. A tough trip for the Jays, who made the flight from Florida.
Milwaukee at Philadelphia: Adrian Houser and Vince Velasquez take the mound here and the Phillies are -115, while I made Velasquez -130 in this one.
Los Angeles at Chicago: Walker Buehler and Kyle Hendricks take the mound for their respective teams in this one and the Dodgers are -190, while I have them at -200, so not a lot happening here. It’s a decent price for Hendricks, who hasn’t been a home underdog since 2019, but LA has a significant offensive edge here.
Tampa Bay at LA Angels: This one could be the most interesting game on the slate today, as Tyler Glasnow and the Rays are -115 against Ohtani and the Angels. Ohtani hasn’t tore it up on the mound, but hasn’t stunk it up, either. He has done a decent job of working out of trouble, with a WHIP of 1.39, but a pretty respectable ERA of 3.29. The Angeles have won all three of his starts this season. I have the Rays -121 in this one.
Record: 26-35 (-2.05)
Lost with the two big dogs Saturday and won on a small one, so not the best of days. Tough slate for today, as I have pretty much every favorite winning but one. Have started using 2021 stats and using medians for starters who had a rough outing, so not to let that one start inflate their numbers too much. Lines are from William Hill and listed starters must go.
Boston at Texas: Garrett Richards and the Red Sox are down to -125 over Mike Foltynewicz and the Rangers, while I made Texas -107, so will go ahead and take a shot on the Rangers. The Sox were -150 and have received nearly two-thirds of the wagers in the game, so a bit of sharp action on the home dog in this one.
Mets at Phillies: Zach Eflin and the Phillies are -115 over David Peterson and the Mets and I made Philadelphia -175, so will take a rare favorite here and take the Phillies -115 in the late ESPN game. The Mets are 14-21 after a win dating back to last season and 3-6 this season. The Phillies are 9-4 this season following a loss, so worth a shot as a small favorite in this one.
Miami at Washington: Max Scherzer and the Nats are -145 over Trevor Rogers and the Fish, while I made Washington -125 in this one.
Colorado at Arizona: Merrill Kelly hasn’t been as sharp as he was last season, but the Diamondbacks are still -145 over Chi Chi Gonzalez and the Rockies in this one, while I have it at Arizona -109.
Detroit at New York Yankees: Corey Kluber and the Yankees are -245 over Jose Urena and the Tigers, while I have this one at Yanks -150. A bit of value with the Tigers, but the Yankees are monsters when favored by -240 or more. Dating back to last year, the Yanks are 9-1 with an average scoring margin of 8.3 to 2.7. They’ve won all nine games by at least two runs and seven of the wins were by 5 runs or more.
Kansas City at Minnesota: The Twins and Jose Berrios are -190 over Brad Keller and the Royals and I was thinking Kansas City as soon as I saw the line, but my numbers have Minnesota -185, so no real value. Keller has had a couple of brutal outings this season, so just going to stay away.
Record: 25-34 (-2.05)
A fair number of day games today, so wanted to get this out a little earlier than usual. As usual, all lines are from William Hill and listed starters must go.
Cubs at Cincinnati: The Reds and Castillo and -153 over the Cubs and Davies, which is a little bit on the high side, as I have the Reds -116 in this one.
Mets at Philadelphia: Walker and Wheeler get the starts in this one and the Phillies are -115. I have the Mets -123, so a little bit of value on the visitors in this one and will go ahead and take Walker +105 in this spot.
Dodgers at Milwaukee: Good game here, where Dustin May and the Dodgers are -125 over Brandon Woodruff and the Brewers, while I made LA -113.
San Francisco at San Diego: Anthony DeSclafani and Blake Snell take the mound in this one and the Padres are -177. I have the Giants -120, so will go ahead and take a shot on San Francisco +162.
Detroit at New York Yankees: Spencer Turnbull and Jameson Taillon take the mound in this one and the Yankees are -216. I have Detroit -105, so will go ahead and grab the big price on the Tigers at +196. Turnbull has been solid, with the Tigers allowing 3 runs or less in 10 of his 13 starts dating back to last season. Detroit is 7-6 in those games and 9-4 on the run line. Turnbull goes off at an average price of +140, so he’s definitely been a profitable pitcher. He’s dropped a pair of 3-2 decisions to Brad Keller and the Royals this year. The Yankees are 1-3 in the four games Taillon has started this year, allowing 4.75 runs per game, so a decent price play.
Kansas City at Minnesota: The Twins and Matt Shoemaker are -130 over Danny Duffy and the Royals, while I have Kansas City at -160. Duffy beat the Twins all three starts a year ago, but Minnesota is seeing a lot of sharp action in this game, which has seen the line rise even though the home team has only gotten about one-quarter of the wagers. No interest in touching this one.
Cleveland at Chicago: Lance Lynn and the White Sox are -172 over Mackenzie and the Tribe, which is a little bit on the high side. I made Chicago -130 in this one.
Record: 24-32 (-1.10)
We won our lone play on the diamond Thursday, but turned around and dropped the NBA play for a wash. A few decent pitching matchups today, but not the greatest of days from a betting standpoint, so will have a couple of small dogs and hope for a split. All lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Colorado at Arizona: Jon Gray and Madison Bumgarner take the mound for their respective teams in this one and the Diamondbacks are -121. Bumgarner is coming off his seven-inning no-hitter and has had a few decent starts in a row. The Rockies hit left-handers better than they do right-handers and Gray has better numbers on the road than at home, naturally. I have the Rockies -114, so going to take a shot on Colorado +110 in this one.
Baltimore at Oakland: The A’s return home after a lengthy road trip, which is never an easy spot for teams. John Means has been solid this season, while Fiers is making his first start of the year. I have this one basically even, so going to take a stab on the Orioles +120 in this one.
Houston at Tampa Bay: McCullers and Yarbrough take the mound in this one and the Astros are -121. I have the Rays -106 in this one, which should be a decent series.
Cleveland at Chicago White Sox: Dallas Keuchel and Shane Bieber square off in what is probably the game of the night and the Tribe is -135, while I have Cleveland -122. The Sox won Keuchel’s only start as a home underdog going back to last season, while Bieber is 7-3 as an away favorite. Would lean to the Sox if I had to play, but will most likely just stay away from this one.
Kansas City at Minnesota: Another solid pitching matchup, with Singer and Pineda taking the mound for their respective teams. The Twins are -140 and I have Minnesota -150 in this one, which will become a quick pass.
St. Louis at Pittsburgh: This one is -105 both ways with John Gant and JT Brubaker taking the mound and the Pirates are getting a little bit of sharp action, as the Cardinals opened -120 and have attracted close to 60% of the wagers in the game, yet the line has moved in the opposite direction.
Record: 23-31 (-1.30)
Dropped both games on Wednesday, which is going to happen more frequently than 2-0 nights, which just comes along with betting nearly all underdogs. A bit of a tough slate today, so just one play. As always, lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Philadelphia at St. Louis: The Phillies and Aaron Nola are -121 over Kim and the Cardinals, while I made St. Louis -138, so will take the Cardinals +110 for the lone play of the day. Nola blanked the Cardinals and gave us a loss in the start prior to his last one and think St. Louis can manage something against him this time around. Kwang Hyun Kim has only had two starts this year, but didn’t look bad in his last one.
Seattle at Houston: The Astros are -153 with Garcia and Kikuchi the starters and I made Houston -115 here in a game where I wanted to take Seattle, but not quite enough of an edge to pull the trigger. Seattle has been brutal so far in this series against the Astros, being outscored 14-7 and believe they’ll give a little bit of effort here to try and avoid the four-game sweep.
Boston at Texas: Martin Perez and the Red Sox are -121 over Kyle Gibson and the Rangers and I have Boston -148 in a spot where I like the Rangers. Perez is facing his former team, so not really sure how he’s going to fare here, while Gibson has pitched pretty well this season after a horrendous opening game of the season. The Rangers are getting a little sharp action, as the Sox have gotten more than 60% of the wagers in the game, but the line has come down a bit. Might do something on this one later on in the day, depending on how a few of the day games go, but will pass here for the time being.
LA Dodgers at Milwaukee: The Dodgers jumped up to -195 after being in the -160 range a few hours ago, which ended any thoughts of taking a small stab on the Dodgers, as I have LA -245 against Lauer, who is making his first of the season.
Colorado at Arizona: Antonio Senzatela and Luke Weaver take the mound for this one, where the Diamondbacks are -153 and I have Arizona -122, so not really much of an edge in this one.
Record: 22-31 (-2.40)
We split our four plays on Tuesday and will have two more today, as I’ll just use the numbers a little bit more and try and take myself out of the equation some, which is something I haven’t done the past few days in the NBA and it’s nailed me. As always, all lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Colorado at San Francisco: Alex Wood and the Giants are -145 over German Marquez and the Rockies and I have San Francisco -114. The one problem there is Marquez is a much better pitcher from a numbers standpoint away from home, which makes sense. If we use Marquez numbers away from home, I’d have the Rockies -153. But if we’re using the pitching numbers away from home it’s only right to use Colorado’s offensive numbers away from home, as well. Now, I have the Rockies -136, so will go ahead and take the Rockies +135 in this one. Wood has looked decent so far this year, although both of those starts were against the Marlins and think Colorado might pose a bigger challenge.
Oakland at Tampa Bay: Tyler Glasnow and the Rays are -177 over Cole Irvin and the A’s and I have this one even, so going to take a shot on the A’s +162 in this one as strictly a price play. Irvin has thrown well this season, especially when facing somebody other than the Astros and believe the A’s are worth a shot at a decent price here.
San Diego at Arizona: Weathers and Widener square off in this one and the Padres are -160. Both pitchers have been solid, even though Widener was roughed up a little bit his last start. Weathers has only allowed two hits in 9 1/3 innings against the Dodgers, so no hurry to bet against him. I have the Padres -148 in this one.
Seattle at Houston: The Astros and Zack Greinke are -203 over Justin Dunn and the Mariners in this one and the price is a little high considering how Dunn has thrown. The Mariners have allowed 3 or fewer runs in 8 of his 13 starts dating back to last season, and Seattle is 6-1 in his seven road starts. Greinke is still a tough customer though, with Houston going 4-1 in his five starts so far this season.
Record: 22-29 (-.40)
A split last night, with the Orioles getting the job done, but then Austin Gomber was completely rocked in the late game. All lines are from William Hill and listed starters must go.
Miami at Milwaukee: Adrian Houser and the Brewers are -153 over the Marlins and Castano, while I made Miami -135, so going to take Miami +143 in this one. The Brewers are 2-5 in Houser’s home starts dating back to last season and they’re allowing 6.57 runs per game. Daniel Castano has thrown well for the Marlins, with Miami going 4-4 and allowing 3.12 runs per game. The Marlins have allowed three runs or less in his last five starts, which date back to last season.
San Diego at Arizona: Chris Paddack and the Padres are -153 over Arizona and Merrill Kelly, while I have Arizona -140, so will take another shot on the Diamondbacks with Kelly on the mound at +143. Kelly hasn’t pitched all that well this season, but Arizona is 2-2 in his four starts. Paddack is throwing a little better this season and San Diego is 2-2 with him on the mound.
New York Yankees at Baltimore: The Yankees and Corey Kluber are -177 over Zimmermann and the Orioles and I have Baltimore -130, so going to come right back with the Orioles +162 in this one. Kluber hasn’t thrown that well for the Yankees and is still being overvalued a little bit on his reputation, while Zimmermann has been fair. The Yankees don’t hit left-handers quite as well as they do right-handers, so will take a shot on the home underdog in this one.
Boston at Mets: The Mets and Peterson are -145 over Richards and the Red Sox, while I have Boston -110, so taking a stab on Boston +135 in this one. Neither pitcher has been that impressive this season, while the Red Sox are doing a little better on the offensive end of things, so a price play on the underdog.
Philadelphia at St. Louis: This one is -105 both ways, with Eflin and Carlos Martinez on the mound for their teams, while I have the Phillies -200. Martinez looked like a batting practice pitcher until he came through with a big start last time, throwing six innings and allowing just one run. Will be interesting to see if that’s the start that gets him to turn the corner or not.
Record: 20-27 (-1.18)
The Rays’ offense let us down Sunday, handing us a 1-0 loss, so onto Monday, where we have a decent slate of games. All lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
New York Yankees at Baltimore: Deivi Garcia and the Yankees are -160 over Matt Harvey and the Baltimore Orioles, while I have Baltimore -107, so going to take a shot on Baltimore +150 in this one. Garcia started seven games last year and wasn’t too impressive, with the Yankees allowing 5.29 runs in his starts. New York did average 7.57 runs offensively when he was on the mound, so they did win four of his seven starts. Harvey has been pretty average in his starts, but he has given the Orioles a chance to win, which is all you can ask for.
Colorado at San Francisco: Anthony DeSclafani and the Giants are -160 over Auston Gomber and the Rockies, while I made the Giants -108, so going to take a shot on the Rockies +150 in this one. The Giants beat Gomber 3-1 at home earlier this season with Johnny Cueto on the mound. The Giants are 6-3 against left-handers this season, but are averaging just 3.33 runs per game. San Francisco has gotten good pitching, allowing 2.89 runs in those games. Gomber has faced the Dodgers twice, along with the Astros and the Giants, so he’s done a decent job this season.
Philadelphia at St. Louis: This one has moved to -105 both directions after the Cardinals were slight favorites earlier in the morning, with Zack Wheeler and Adam Wainwright taking the mound. I have the Cardinals -160 in this one and would lean that way, but not quite enough to play it.
Oakland at Tampa Bay: Sean Manaea and the A’s are -115 over Rich Hill and the Rays, which seems a little cheap, as I have Oakland -175. Hill hasn’t been very good, but has been working on trying to conceal his pitches better, so will just wait and see how this start goes.
Cincinnati at Los Angeles: Julio Urias and the Dodgers are -180 over Tyler Mahle and the Reds and I made LA -205, although Urias may be asked to go a little more than he has in the past due to the Dodgers’ bullpen being used extensively Sunday, not to mention stinking it up, although he has thrown seven innings twice this year after going no more than six all of last season.
Record: 19-26 (-1.68)
One of the toughest schedules we’ve seen this year, as I have nearly every favorite winning again, so another day with just one play. All lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Toronto at Tampa Bay: The Blue Jays and Ryu are -121 over the Tampa Rays and Patino, who will get the start before giving way to Josh Fleming. Luis Patino was a key piece in the trade that sent Blake Snell to the Padres, so he has some talent. He didn’t exactly tear it up for the Padres last year, appearing in 11 games with a 5.19 ERA. He did fan 21 in 17 1/3 innings, but also walked 14. Ryu has been solid ever since he came into the league and the Jays are 11-6 with him on the mound dating back to last season. Fleming has been solid in the rotation, where the Rays are 6-2 in his starts, but they also like to bring him out of the bullpen, as they will go today. I have the Rays -117, so will go ahead and take Tampa +110 even though it’s not quite as much of an edge as you like to have.
San Diego at Los Angeles Dodgers: Dustin May and the Dodgers are -121 over Musgrove and the Padres and I have LA -156. Gave some thought to taking the rare favorite in this one, but will just sit back and watch what should be a pretty good game between a couple of solid pitchers who are overshadowed a little bit on their respective teams.
Kansas City at Detroit: The Royals and Danny Duffy are down to -111 here and I have KC -160, but the Tigers have been getting hit pretty hard by some sharp action, so want no part of the Royals in this one. Fulmer hasn’t looked all that bad in his starts this season.
Washington at Mets: Taijuan Walker and the Mets are -153 over Patrick Corbin and the Nationals and I made New York -126 in this spot, so the slightest of leans to the underdog. The Nats have received a little bit of play in this one.
Philadelphia at Colorado: The Rockies and Jon Gray are -115 over Chase Anderson and the Phillies and I have the Phillies -107 due to a couple of poor starts by Gray last season, but Gray is starting to look like his old self. He’s faced the Dodgers twice, Houston and Arizona, so some decent hitting teams, and would probably lean to the Rockies if I had to play.
Record: 19-25 (-.68)
A split last night and my numbers are pretty much on all the favorites today, so just one play. All numbers are from William Hill and listed pitchers must go.
Seattle at Boston: Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Flexen get the starts in this one and the Red Sox are -195, while I made Seattle -102, so will go ahead and take a stab on the Mariners in this early game Saturday. Flexen has made three starts this season, with Seattle winning two of three and allowing seven runs in the process. Flexen was roughed up a little bit by the Twins, but was decent in his other two starts, working out of trouble several times. Eovaldi has been his normal steady self, so will try the Mariners as a price play here.
Kansas City at Detroit: Lost with Detroit last night and now they face a tough starter in Brady singer, while they’ll throw Matthew Boyd. Kansas City struggled with lefties a little bit, while the Tigers struggle to score against anybody. The Royals are -115 and I have Detroit -107, but just a 12-cent difference between the take on Detroit and my line, so no interest in getting involved.
Cincinnati at St. Louis: The Cardinals held on for us last night and Gant is -121 over Wade Miley in this one, while I made the Cardinals -112. The Cards are just 17-22 after a win dating back to last season.
New York at Cleveland: One of two big pitching matchups today, sees Gerrit Cole and the Yankees -121 against Shane Bieber and the Tribe, while I have Cleveland -104, so the slightest of value to Cleveland here. These two pitchers faced off last year and the Yankees thumped Cleveland 12-3 in the only home game the Indians have allowed more than two runs with Bieber on the hill dating back to last season.
San Diego at LA Dodgers: Trevor Bauer and the Dodgers are -145 over Blake Snell and the Padres, while I made LA -165 in this one.
Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs: Peralta and the Brewers are -111 in this one and I have Alzolay and the Cubbies -105, so not a whole lot of value either way compared to the line. The Brewers have won the first two meetings between these two, 4-0 and 6-3, so can see why they’re small favorites in this one. Milwaukee is the only team Alzolay has faced this season.
Record: 18-25 (-2.43)
Came up short with the Fish last night, ending a little run, so will see if we can’t get back on track a bit. The usual full slate of games, although a bit tough from a betting standpoint, as I have most of the favorites winning. All lines taken from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Cincinnati at St. Louis: Sonny Gray gets the start for the Reds, where he’ll be opposed by Kwang Hyun Kim for the Cardinals and this one is -105 both ways, while I have St, Louis -145, so going to take a shot on the Cardinals in this one. The Reds were favored earlier and have gotten 57% of the early wagers, yet the line moved in the other direction. The Cardinals have had some success against Gray over the past few seasons, going 4-1 and averaging 6.0 runs per start dating back to the 2019 season.
Kansas City at Detroit: Mike Minor and the Royals are -115 over Casey Mize and the Tigers, while I have Detroit -116, so taking Detroit +105 in this one. The Royals have gotten close to 60% of the wagers in the game, yet the line moved from -120 to -115. The Tigers average 4.88 runs against left-handed starters dating back to last season, although they’re a off to a bit of a start this season. The Royals have been favored on the road only twice going back to last season, with both of those coming against Detroit and the Royals won both, although that was with Brady Singer on the mound.
Milwaukee at Cubs: Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs are favored -153 over the Brewers and Anderson, while I have this one Milwaukee -105, although the Cubs are getting a bit of sharp action here, as Chicago has moved from -126 even though they’re getting less than 50% of the wagers in this one.
Toronto at Tampa Bay: Tyler Glasnow and the Rays are -157 over Steve Matz and the Blue Jays and I have Tampa -110 when factoring in this year’s stats a little more than normal. The Jays have allowed just four runs in the three starts Matz has made this season, while they allowed four runs or more in all six starts Matz made last season, so a huge turnaround for the southpaw. Toronto is 3-0 in his starts this year after going 0-6 last season.
Record: 17-24 (-2.43)
A pretty small slate of games for Thursday and a couple of teams are still showing undecided for their pitcher, so there’s only a handful of games that we can look at. Getting this out early, as I’ll be on the road in the morning and away from the computer. Listed pitchers must start.
Miami at San Francisco: Castano and Sanchez get the starts in this one and the Giants having the offensive edge and the Marlins getting the edge in starting pitchers. The Giants are -145 in this one and I have Castano -115, so will take a shot on Miami in this one. The Marlins are 4-3 in Castano’s seven starts dating back to last season, allowing 3.14 runs per game, while the Giants are 0-3 in the three starts Sanchez has made even though he hasn’t pitched all that bad. San Francisco has allowed 4.33 runs per game in his three starts. The Marlins are 4-5 on the road when their last game was at home, with four one-run losses dating back to last season, while the Giants are 2-5 at home when their previous game was on the road.
San Diego at Los Angeles: The Dodgers and Walker Buehler are -175 over Weathers and the Padres and I have the Dodgers -250 in this one. The Dodgers won 11-6 when these two pitchers met in San Diego last week.
Arizona at Cincinnati: Hoffman and the Reds are -140 over Widener and the Diamondbacks and I have Arizona -155, but neither pitcher has more than three starts, so it’s a little tough to pull the trigger on this one.
Mets at Chicago Cubs: Joey Lucchesi and the Mets are -127 in this one and I made New York -150. The Cubs had their best offensive output against a left-handed pitcher since 2019 last night and not sure if they’ll be able to score runs in back-to-back games against a southpaw.
Seattle at Boston Red Sox: Pivetta and the Red Sox are -165 in this one and I have Boston -145, so not much happening in this one.
Los Angeles Angeles at Houston: Javier and the Astros are -125 over the Angeles and Alex Cobb, while I made Houston -106. These two are pretty even in both hitting and pitching, so the Astros get the slight nod for being at home.
A bit of a strange day today in that I have six games where my numbers like the underdogs, but we’ll settle for two plays. A couple of the games appear to have some sharp money on the opposite side, so we’ll see what we can come up with. All lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
San Francisco at Philadelphia: The Phillies and Eflin are -121 over DeSclafani and the Giants, while I have San Francisco -111 in this one, so not a huge difference. The teams are pretty even offensively and the Giants get a slight edge in pitching, with DeSclafani allowing .37 fewer runs per start.
Arizona at Cincinnati: Tyler Mahle and the Reds are -172 over Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks, while I have Arizona -140, so going to take a shot on Arizona +157 in this one. Kelly hasn’t been as strong as he was last year, although he has faced the Padres and Rockies on the road.
Minnesota at Oakland: Frankie Montas and the A’s just dropped from -111 to -105 both ways and I have the Twins -170. Was in the middle of typing I was a little surprised the A’s were favored, only to see the line drop to -105.
Baltimore at Miami: Trevor Rogers and the Marlines are -157 over Zimmermann and the Orioles, while I made Baltimore -120 in this one. The Fish did open -135 in this one and the line moved quite a bit, perhaps a bit more than solely betting percentages would suggest it should.
Houston at Colorado: Jose Urquidy and the Astros just dropped to -140 over Austin Gomber and the Rockies, while I made Colorado -108, so am going to take a stab on the Rockies +130 in this one. Gomber’s numbers are pretty comparable at home as they are on the road, which is difficult to do. Not so sure Urquidy will have the same success. Urquidy has pitched better than Houston’s 4-7 record with him on the mound would indicate, but like Gomber in this spot.
Atlanta at New York: Corey Kluber and the Yanks just climbed to -130 over Ian Anderson and the Braves, while I have Atlanta -129. Tough game to get involved with and will just sit it out.
Record: 15-23 (-4.30)
The Phillies had plenty of chances last night, but couldn’t bring anybody home and handed us another 2-0 loss. Philadelphia left 11 on base, which is going to happen when you’re 0 for 8 with runners in scoring position. Bigger slate of games and a couple of plays have received some sharp action, with the wiseguys on the opposite side of the numbers, so we’ll be passing on those and winding up with two plays. All lines from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Arizona at Cincinnati: Zac Gallen and Luis Castillo get the starts in this one, where the Reds are -140. I have Arizona -150, but this is one of the games I’ll sit out, as the Reds have moved from -130 to -140 after getting about 45% of the wagers in the game.
St. Louis at Washington: More of the same here, where I have Adam Wainright and the Cardinals -170 over Patrick Corbin and the Nationals and Washington is -125. Arizona is getting close to two-thirds of the wagers in this one and the line is moving in the other direction.
San Francisco at Philadelphia: Webb and Wheeler get the starts in this one and the Phillies are -153, while I have the Giants -140, so will take San Francisco +143 in this one, even though I’ve been on the wrong end of the last two Phillies games by identical 2-0 scores.
Milwaukee at San Diego: Chris Paddack and the Padres are -111 over Corbin Burnes and the Brewers and I have Milwaukee -151, so going to go ahead and take the the Brewers +101. Big hitting edge to the Padres, but a bigger pitching advantage for the Brewers, at least as far as the numbers go.
Atlanta at New York Yankees: The Yankees and Jameson Taillon are -125 over Charlie Morton and the Braves, while I have Atlanta -150, but this one scares me a little bit. The number is all over the place at several different sportsbooks, so just going to stay away from this one, at least for the article.
Record: 13-23 (-6.74)
A bit of a tough slate from a betting standpoint on Monday, as we have a fairly small schedule and not a whole lot of differences between the early lines and my projections. All lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
St. Louis at Washington: Jack Flaherty and Joe Ross get the starts here and the Cards are -121, while I have Ross and the Nationals -117. The Cardinals were blanked by Aaron Nola yesterday, which puts them in a favorable situation, as away favorites coming off a shutout have been profitable over the years, going 394-288 long-term and are 63-37 from 2018 onward, including 15-7 since the start of last season, so will just stay away from this one.
San Francisco at Philadelphia: Kevin Gausman and the Giants are -115 over Chase Anderson, who can be either pretty good or pretty bad on any given day. Anderson has made nine starts dating back to last season and his teams have allowed 4 or fewer runs in five of those starts and 8 or more in the other four starts. I have the Phillies -128 in this one and with the Giants 8-17 on the road against right-handers dating back to last season and the Phillies 14-11 at home against right-handers, will go ahead and take the Phils +105 in this one for the lone play of the day.
Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox: Lucas Giolito and the White Sox are -115 at Boton, with Nathan Eovaldi and I have the Red Sox -125, but in no hurry to go against Giolito on the road. As mentioned in last start, Chicago has a better record on the road with Giolito than they do at home. Eovaldi has been better at home, with Boston allowing three runs or less in all five of his home starts dating back to last year.
Tampa Bay at Kansas City: The Royals and Danny Duffy are -121 in this one and are attracting a little bit of sharp action here. I have the Rays and Josh Fleming -135, but an obvious letdown spot for Tampa Bay, coming off a sweep of the Yankees in New York. The Royals don’t score much against LHP, averaging just 3.0 runs per game, but Kansas City has gone 8-8, while the Rays are 13-14 against LHP and 5-7 on the road.
Record: 13-22 (-5.74)
Dropped Saturday’s play with the Yankees in what I thought was a decent spot for them, but should have given a bit more weight to New York’s record after a loss, which is now 14-22 dating back to last season. The Dodgers are 19-5 for comparison, which shows the difference between a great team and one that may be overrated a bit, although a pretty big pitching advantage for the Yankees today, which we’ll get into a little bit more. All lines are taken from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
St. Louis at Philadelphia: John Gant and Aaron Nola get the starts for their teams in this one and the Phillies are -172, while I made St. Louis -105, so will take the Cardinals +157 in this one. Gant and Nola have both gotten the job done, although both are allowing too many runners. There isn’t a huge difference between the two in terms of runs allowed per start dating back to last season, although Nola is a bit more hyped, so will try the dog here in what I basically have as a toss-up, as the Cardinals are 12-13 as an away dog dating back to last season.
Atlanta at Chicago: Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs are -130 in this one, as Bryse Wilson makes his season debut for the Braves, while I have Atlanta -125, so will take a shot on the Braves +120 in this one. Wilson had three starts last year, with two good ones and one dismal outing. Hendricks is a decent starter, but have to grab the better-hitting team at the price.
Tampa Bay at New York: Gerrit Cole and the Yankees are -219 over Andrew Kittredge and the Rays, while I have New York -145. The Rays are 15-5 against the Yanks dating back to last season, going 3-2 in the games Cole started and 12-3 against anybody else. The Yanks are 5-14 after a three-run loss or greater dating back to last season, so can’t blame anybody who takes a stab on the Rays here as a price play.
Baltimore at Texas: Kyle Gibson and the Rangers are getting a little sharp action in this one, where the line has moved from -105 both ways to Texas -111. John Means has pitched well for the Orioles this season and I have Baltimore -170, but will respect the line movement here and sit this one out.
Record: 12-21 (-5.94)
An easy win and a bad loss on Friday for a split and a bit of a tougher schedule on Saturday, at least as far as my numbers go. We have several pitchers making their season debuts and it’s always difficult to tell how those are going to pan out. As always, lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Tampa Bay at New York Yankees: Tyler Glasnow and Jordan Montgomery get the starts in this one and the line is -105 both ways, while I have the Yankees -150, so will go ahead and take a shot on New York in this one. The Rays average 4.23 runs against left-handed pitchers and 4.65 when facing right-handed starters, so a little bit of an advantage for Tampa when they see right-handed starters. Tampa Bay is 12-14 against LHP dating back to last season, and 4-7 when away from home, which does include last night’s 8-2 win against the Yankees.
The Rays are 14-6 when Glasnow starts, allowing 3.85 runs per game and 6-4 when he starts on the road, where Tampa Bay allows 4.20 runs per start.
The Yankees average 5.46 runs against right-handed starts and 5.88 at home, where they’ve gone 21-11 dating back to last season. New York is 8-5 when Montgomery starts, allowing 4.08 runs per game and the Yankees are 6-2 when Montgomery starts at home, where they allow 2.88 runs per game. Montgomery has pitched well for New York this season, with his first two starts both with New York coming off losses.
San Francisco at Miami: The Marlins are -130 in this one and I have it even, with Aaron Sanchez and Sandy Alcantara the scheduled pitchers. The Marlins are 8-6 as a favorite dating back to last season, while Alcantara has lost both starts in which he went off as a favorite. He pitched well in both games, but the Fish scored a total of two runs. Sanchez has been decent this season in his two starts, but a little early to tell if he’s improved since 2019 when his teams allowed more than 5 runs per start.
Los Angeles at San Diego: Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers have dropped to -121 over Yu Darvish and the Padres, while I made LA -107. Surprisingly, Darvish has just faced the Dodgers one time back in 2019 when the Cubs beat the Dodgers 2-1. This will be the 42nd time Kershaw has started against the Padres in his career. The Dodgers are 18-2 in his last 20 starts against San Diego.
Record: 12-20 (-4.89)
Thought the Rockies might get there for us last night, but shoddy bullpen work had us settle for a split on the evening. All lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Pittsburgh at Milwaukee: Adrian Houser and the Brewers have dropped to -145 over JT Brubaker and the Pirates and I made Pittsburgh -106 in this one, so going to take a shot on the Pirates +135 in this one. The Pirates are 2-2 in Brubaker’s four starts dating back to last season and he’s pitched well this season, with Pittsburgh splitting the two games he’s started. The Brewers are 6-7 when Houser takes the mound and 2-4 when he starts at home. Milwaukee is 24-30 against right-handers dating back to last season and 13-15 at home. Both teams struggle against RHP, but Brubaker has done a bit better of a job when it comes to not allowing runs so far this season.
Cleveland at Cincinnati: Jeff Hoffman and the Reds are -121 over Logan Allen and Cleveland, while I made the Tribe -135 in this one, so will go ahead and take Cleveland +110 in this one. The Indians are 32-23 against right-handed starts, averaging 4.2 runs, and 17-10 on the road, where they average 4.03 runs. Cincinnati hasn’t hit LHP as well as right-handed starters, going 7-7 with 3.64 runs per game against southpaws and 4.45 runs per game against RHP. The Reds are 1-1 in Hoffman’s starts this year, while Cleveland has also split Allen’s two starts.
Chicago White Sox at Boston: The Red Sox and Nick Pivetta are -115 over Dylan Cease and the White Sox, while I made Boston -188 in this one. The White are 24-33 against right-handed starters and just 9-19 when they’re on the road. Boston is 23-21 against right-handers, but just 10-12 at home. Chicago is 7-8 when Cease starts and 4-5 when he starts on the road, while Boton has gone 4-0 in Pivetta’s starts, even though they allowed nine runs last time and Pivetta allowed four runs in six innings. Boston had scored nine runs through five innings, so Pivetta did what you want to see and that’s throw strikes, so willing to forgive him a little bit.
Arizona at Washington: Max Scherzer and the Nats are -195 and I have Washington -125 in this one, so the numbers do like the Diamondbacks a little bit. Scherzer has thrown a little bit better on the road than at home, while Taylor Widener has just the two starts, so a little hesitant to grab the dog here.
Record: 11-19 (-5.24)
The Seattle game was postponed last night, so we just had the one game going for us, which was fine, since Brad Keller was solid at home again. Slightly smaller slate of games for Thursday. All lines from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Colorado at Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers and Julio Urias are -260 over Austin Gomber and the Rockies, while I have Colorado -140 in this rematch of a game played 11 days ago, so will take the Rockies +230 in this one. The Dodgers won the earlier game by a score of 4-2, as Gomber last three innings, allowing one run on one hit, but was all over the place, walking seven. You are going to get a fair number of walks and strikeouts when Gomber is on the mound. The Rockies average 4.60 runs against left-handers on the road, while the Dodgers score 4.60 at home and 5.24 overall. The Dodgers have allowed 4.14 runs per game at home with Urias on the mound, so will take a shot on the underdog here.
Arizona at Washington: Patrick Corbin and the Nationals are -172 against Corbin’s former team and the Nationals have lost nine straight games Corbin has started. He’s pitched much better at home, but hasn’t gotten any sort of run support. Merrill Kelly is coming off one of his worst starts at Colorado, allowing six earned runs in six innings, but after facing the Padres and the Rockies at Coors Field, he should find the Washington line-up a little less formidable. Arizona is 12-25-1 in totals in games Kelly has started since he joined the rotation in 2019. Taking a shot on the Diamondbacks +157 in this one, as I have Arizona -143.
Detroit at Oakland: Interesting game here, as Tarik Skubal and the Tigers visit Sean Manaea and the Oakland A’s, where the home team is -172 and the total is 8.5. The tigers have averaged 5.5 runs against left-handed pitchers dating back to last season and are 9-5 when facing a southpaw. The A’s have averaged 4.83 runs against LHP and are 13-5. Skubal has been inconsistent in his nine games as a starter, with the Tigers allowing 4 or fewer runs four times and 9 or more runs four times. Detroit allowed 5 runs in his other start. The A’s have allowed 4.36 runs when Manaea starts and 4.00 runs when he starts at home. I made Oakland -138 here, so not quite enough of an edge for a play.
Record: 10-18 (-5.81)
Another full slate of games for Wednesday, where we’ll see fewer of the big-name pitchers as saw yesterday, so will have a couple of plays, but for the most part, the numbers were pretty close to the lines in a number of the games. Just going to look at the two plays and look at the games in a little more detail than normal. All lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City: Griffin Canning and the Angels are -125 and I have Brad Keller and Kansas City -128, so will take the Royals +115 for the first play of the day here. The offensive numbers are pretty close, with LA averaging 4.76 runs against RHP dating back to last season and the Royals average 4.49. The Angels do see a slight dip to 4.69 runs on the road, while the Royals climb up a bit to 5.14 runs at home. Canning’s numbers on the road are a little better than his overall numbers, as the Angels allow 4.62 runs in his starts overall and 4.17 runs per start when he’s on the road. Keller takes quite a jump, with the Royals allowing 4.0 runs in his starts overall, but just 2.5 when he starts at home and Kansas City is 6-0 with him on the mound dating back to last season.
Seattle at Baltimore: Justin Dunn and Matt Harvey get the starts here and the Orioles are -125. Offensively, Baltimore scores 4.72 runs per game against right-handed starters and 4.61 at home. Seattle scores 4.56 runs against RHP and 4.73 on the road. The Mariners allow 4.27 runs when Dunn is on the mound and 4.8 when he’s on the road, due to an 11-9 loss to the Dodgers, but Seattle did win his other four away starts, so the Mariners are 4-1 when he starts away from home. Harvey only has five starts dating back to last season, three last year with the Royals and two so far for Baltimore and his teams have allowed 5.0 runs per start and 20 in his three road starts. I made Seattle -115 in this one, so will go ahead and take a shot on Seattle +115 in this spot. The Orioles are just 4-10 after scoring seven or more runs and just 1-3 as a home favorite dating back to last year.
Record: 9-18 (-6.96)
Still stinking it up in baseball, pretty much doing everything wrong at the moment. Not going to really change things up, since our method has been able to grind out a small profit in the years we’ve been using it, although that’s not really helping right now. Just one play for today that I really like, but that’s probably not a good thing considering the record to start the year. Lines are taken from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Cleveland at Chicago White Sox: The game of the night sees Shane Bieber and Lucas Giolito take the mound and William Hill has this one at -105 both ways and the total is 7-under. We were among the first to pick-up on Giolito about three years ago and rode him quite a bit until he became a bit overpriced in a lot of games. The one thing about Giolito is that he’s typically been a better pitcher on the road. Going back to the 2018 season, Chicago is 26-13 when he starts on the road, allowing 3.49 runs per game. At home, the Sox are 13-24 and allow 4.95 runs per game.
When Bieber starts on the road, Cleveland is 24-11 and allows 3.06 runs per game, while the Tribe is 21-11 when he starts at home and allows 4.0 runs per contest, so he’s been a little bit better on the road. I made the Indians -125 in this one, so will go ahead and take Cleveland -105 in this one.
Cincinnati at Giants: The Giants are -111 against Luis Castillo and the Reds with Kevin Gausman taking the hill for the home team and I made this one even, so nothing really happening here. The Giants were blanked yesterday and are just 5-7 after scoring 1 run or less their previous game dating back to last season.
Colorado at Los Angeles: The Dodgers and Trevor Bauer are -330 in this one, becoming just the second -300 or greater favorite of the season. Favorites of -250 and more are 5-1 this season, with the lone loss coming a couple of days ago when the Marlins beat the Mets and deGrom. I made Los Angeles -305 in this one.
Miami at Atlanta: The Braves and Max Fried are -177 and I have Atlanta -220 in this one. Lopez is a decent pitcher and his numbers are hurt quite a bit by the game Atlanta scored 29 runs when he started. He faced Atlanta twice more last season after that game, holding the Braves to two runs each game.
Record: 8-18 (-7.96)
A split on the diamond last night, but still going to be facing an uphill climb for a bit after an ugly start to the season. All lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee: A rematch of an earlier game that saw the Brewers win 4-0, as Freddy Peralta and Adbert Alzolay take the mounds for their respective teams in this one. The Brewers opened -150 here and the line is all the way down to Brewers -125. Going to shoot on the Cubs +115 in this one, which I basically have as even.
Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City: The Angels are -111 in this one, with Alex Cobb and Brady Singer on the mound and this is another game I basically have as even, with my line Kansas City -101. Will take a shot on the Royals +101 here.
Texas at Tampa Bay: The Rays and Tyler Glasnow are -210 over Dane Dunning and the Rangers and I have it quite a bit closer, at Tampa Bay -125. Dunning has pitched well, with his teams going 7-2 in his starts dating back to last season. The Rays are 13-6 when Glasnow starts dating back to last year and allow slightly more runs than Dunning’s teams, while Tampa Bay gets the edge on offense.
Cincinnati at San Francisco: Wade Miley and Sanchez get the starts in this one and San Francisco is -115, while I have the Giants -109, so nothing happening in this one.
Miami at Atlanta: The Fish are getting some sharp action in this one, as the Braves have dropped all the way down to -135 after opening at -165. I have the opening line more reflective of the teams, as I made this one Atlanta -168, but you do have to respect the line movement here.
Oakland at Arizona: Chris Bassitt and the A’s are -125 over Madison Bumgarner and the Diamondbacks, while I have Oakland -160 here primarily due to the struggles of Bumgarner the past year-plus. The two teams are pretty even in the offensive department, but Bassitt and the A’s are allowing two fewer runs when he starts compared to what the Diamondbacks have allowed when Bumgarner takes the mound for the team. Out of Bumgarner’s 11 starts for Arizona, the Diamondbacks are 2-1 in home games and 1-7 on the road.
Have stunk it up pretty good the last few days, both in hoops and MLB. Baseball is pretty much up-and-down over the course of the season, although starting off this bad is a bit of a surprise, as the first month of the season generally isn’t too bad. We do have fewer games from last year to draw on as a foundation and that is likely playing a part, so will look to turn it around a bit. All lines are from William Hill and listed pitchers must start.
Washington at LA Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers are down to -160 over Max Scherzer and the Nationals, while my numbers have Washington -109, so will go ahead and go against my boys in blue and take Washington +150. The Nats hit lefties better than they do right-handers, averaging 6.22 runs when LHP start dating back to last season. The pitchers are pretty even, with Scherzer allowing .2 fewer runs when he starts, so with the slightest of edges on offense and defense, I have Washington predicted to win.
Philadelphia at Atlanta: The Braves are -160 with Drew Smyly over Matt Moore and the Phillies and I have this one even, so will take a stab on the Phillies +150 in this one. The Braves haven’t hit lefties nearly as well as they do right-handers, although Moore was unable to get out of the fourth inning in his first start of the season. But the Phillies are 14-8 against lefties dating back to the start of last year, so worth a stab as a value play.
Kansas City at White Sox: The Sox and Dylan Cease are just -125 over Mike Minor and the Royals, which is a surprise given how well Chicago has done against left-handed pitchers the past 1+ season, going 18-0 and averaging more than 7 runs per game. But the Royals were getting some sharp action yesterday before the game was postponed and it’s picked right back up today, so will sit this one out and see how things transpire.
NY Yankees at Tampa Bay: The Yankees are -145 with Jordan Montgomery and Brent Honeywell the scheduled starters. Honeywell was once one of the top pitching prospects in baseball before some injury problems and he only threw one inning in spring training. The Rays used the bullpen quite a bit after Archer’s injury Saturday and they need Honeywell to give them innings.
Record: 7-15 (-6.46)
Tough break with the pitching change in the Toronto game, but since I didn’t specify ‘listed pitchers’ I’ll throw into the loss column. After taking a couple of losses in the same manner last year, you’d think I’d know better, but it’s something you seldom think about, especially when your wagers become ‘no action’ in case of a pitching change. Anyway, I’ll start listing it daily, since when you’re off to a slow start, you don’t need any additional help coming up with losing wagers. So, on to today’s games and see if I can’t get untracked a little bit. All lines taken from William Hill and listed starters must go.
Colorado at San Francisco: Chi Chi Gonzalez and Logan Webb get the starts in this one and the Giants are -177, which is simply too high in my opinion. I made the Giants -103, so going to take a shot on the Rockies +162 as a value play. This game could go either way, so have to take that type of price.
Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays: Right back to the site of last night’s ugly loss, where the Jays send Steven Matz to the mound against Jose Quintana, who wasn’t great in his opening start, but the Angels were able to get the victory. Los Angeles scored 5.70 runs last year against lefties, but allowed 5.9. The Jays scored 4.33 runs, but got much better pitching than the Angels. Still, with the Jays -121 will have to go ahead and take the Angels +110 for the last play today.
Boston at Baltimore: Garrett Richards and the Red Sox are -130 in this one and it’s one of those games that’s tough to get a read on, as Zimmermann has just the one start to his credit, and it will much tougher for a repeat performance now that the Red Sox have already seen him once. The Red sox didn’t get much help from the pitchers when Richards started, but he’s a bit better than he looked in that first game. Sheer numbers would give the Orioles the slightest of advantages, but just going to sit this one out.
Oakland at Houston: Jose Urquidy and the Astros are -153 over Frankie Montas and the A’s, which might be a little bit cheap, as I have Houston -190. The A’s were able to end the skid against Houston last night, but don’t like their chances here.
Record: 7-13 (-4.46)
Our second 0-2 day of the season on Thursday and as I tell people there are going to be more of those in store, which is going to happen when you wager on nearly all underdogs. Somewhat of a small slate of games today, which is a bit unusual being a Friday, but things are a little different this year.
Colorado at San Francisco: The wise guys have been on the Giants pretty good this morning, as San Francisco has moved from -130 to -157 at William Hill and this is a case where you have to respect the line move, as I have the Rockies winning, but will sit it out. Cueto had some injury problems a year ago, which has led to inflated numbers.
Philadelphia at Atlanta: Charlie Morton and the Braves are -125 over Zack Wheeler and the Mets in a quick rematch. I have Atlanta -170, although Morton did have the luxury of throwing at the Trop when he was with the Rays. Would still lean to the favorite, but nothing more.
Cincinnati at Arizona: Tyler Mahle and the Reds have gotten a little bit of play this morning, as the line has climbed from -115 all the way to -140. Taylor Widener was solid in his debut against the Padres, so not so sure Mahle deserves to be favored so much in this one. Going to take a shot on the Diamondbacks +130 in this one.
Yankees at Tampa Bay: Kluber and Rich Hill get the starts here and the Yankees are -130, which is what I have them. Hill has struggled since last season, so not sure what to make of his numbers, which aren’t all that impressive. There is a little bit of bad blood between the two teams.
Angels at Toronto: The Angels and Andrew Heaney are -115 in this one against TJ Zeuch and I made the Jays -140, so will go ahead and take Toronto +105 in this one. Zeuch has just two starts, but has looked good both times, which is more than can be said for Heaney, who hasn’t done a whole lot lately.
Oakland at Houston: Lance McCullers and the Astros are -172 over Sean Manaea and the Athletics, as Houston looks to continue their mastery over the A’s, as the Astros have won eight of the last nine meetings. I have Houston -175, so a little too close to the numbers for my liking.
Record: 7-11 (-2.46)
A split on Wednesday and another day with quite a few early starts, so wanted to get this up a bit earlier than normal, as there are basically just two night games.
Cubs at Pirates: Jake Arrieta and Tyler Anderson face off for the second time this season and the Cubs won the first game 5-1, as Anderson allowed three runs in five innings and Arrieta allowed 1 in six. The Cubs are -135 and I have Anderson -126, so taking a shot on the Pirates +125 in this one. As bad as the Pirates have been since the start of last year, they’ve been a better team at home, going 8-28 on the road and 12-18 at home. As a home underdog, they’ve gone 12-15, earning an ROI of 12%.
Arizona at Colorado: Jon Gray and Merrill Kelly face-off in this one and the Rockies are -115. Gray looked like his old self in his first start, holding the Dodgers to one run in five innings. I have Arizona -130 but no rush to play this one, as Gray’s numbers are likely a little bit inflated after last season.
Milwaukee at St. Louis: Corbin Burnes and the Brewers are -135 over Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals and I have Milwaukee -132. Wainwright is 10-10 as a home underdog over his career, with games going 4-16 in totals.
Kansas City at Chicago White Sox: Lance Lynn and the White Sox are -160 over Brad Keller and the Royals, while I made KC -120, so will take the Royals +150 in this one. Kansas City is 7-3 in Keller’s 10 starts dating back to last season and he has shown the ability to bounce back after a poor start and he’s coming off a brutal outing. Last season the Royals were 3-0 with Keller on the mound when they allowed 5 or more runs in his previous start.
Seattle at Minnesota: Marco Gonzales and Jose Berrios take the mound in what could be a decent pitcher’s duel. When Gonzales is on, he can be nasty on the mound, but he can also get roughed up a little bit when he’s not. Berrios was brilliant in his first start, throwing six hitless innings and fanning 12. Still, the price is a little steep at Minnesota -190, as the Twins scored 3.88 against lefties dating back to the start of last season and 4.74 runs against RHP. The Twins have won their last six vs. southpaws, but are averaging just 3.33 runs in that stretch. I have Minnesota -145.
Record: 7-9 (-.46)
A split last night and a tiny profit and today’s is the typical getaway day for a number of teams, so a fair number of early starts.
Mets at Philadelphia: Peterson and Nola take the mound for their respective teams in this one and the Phillies are -145 at William Hill. Nola faced the Mets three times last year, with the Phillies going 1-2. The Phils allowed just two runs in his first start against the Mets, but then allowed 14 and 10 runs in his last two starts. Peterson’s lone start against the Phillies last year was his worst of the season, but going to go ahead and take a shot on New York +135 in this one.
Baltimore at New York Yankees: Jameson Taillon makes his first start for the Yankees and he’ll be opposed by John Means, who was brilliant in his opening start. The Yankees are -190 and I have this one even, so going to go ahead and take a shot on Baltimore +170 in this one. Baltimore is just 3-8 in Means’ starts dating back to last season, but the Orioles lost his first six starts, which is about the time he started to turn things around. In his last five starts, the Orioles have allowed 11 runs. In his first six starts, Baltimore allowed 40 runs. A Taillon comeback would be a great story, but he hasn’t pitched since May, 2019, and the Yanks are 8-9 against lefties dating back to the start of last season.
St. Louis at Miami: The Cardinals are -111 with Flaherty over the Marlins and Pablo Lopez, while I made Miami -124, so a bit of a lean to the Fish in this one, but not quite enough of an edge to make a play in this one.
Tampa Bay at Boston: The Red Sox and Nathan Eovaldi are -115 over Ryan Yarbrough and the Tampa Bay Rays, while I made this one Rays -128, so another lean to the dog, but a little too small of an edge to make Tampa a play.
Milwaukee at Cubs: Decent pitching matchup here, with Brandon Woodruff facing Kyle Hendricks and the game has flopped around a little bit regarding the line. The Cubs have now moved to -115 and I made Hendricks -121 in this one.
A split last night on the diamond and a pretty full slate of games for Tuesday, so we’ll see what we can come up with for today.
Atlanta at Washington: Smyly and Scherzer get the starts in this one and the Nationals are favored by 120, while I made Washington -125 in this one.
St. Louis at Miami: The Fish are favored for the second straight day over the Cardinals, this time -125 with Sandy Alcantara facing off against John Gant. I have Miami -155 in this one.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: The Reds and Wade Miley are -155 over Trevor Cahill and the Pirates. Pittsburgh was just 2-10 against left-handed starters last year, but it wasn’t due to hitting, as Pittsburgh averaged 4.42 runs, but allowed 6.17. The Pirates lost seven one-run games last year and Cahill was strong in his six starts last year, so will take a stab on Pittsburgh +145 in this one.
Toronto at Texas: Tanner Roark and Dane Dunning get the starts for their respective teams in this one, where the Jays are -125. Toronto is -125 and I have Texas -170 due to Roark’s struggles last season, so will take a shot on the Rangers +115 for our final play of the day.
Arizona at Colorado: Luke Weaver and German Marquez take the hill in this one, where the Rockies are -120. I have Colorado -150 in this one.
San Francisco at San Diego: Yu Darvish and the Padres are -185 in this one against Sanchez and the Giants, while I made the Padres -200. San Diego was 13-6 as a favorite after a loss last season, but did lose in that role this season.
Houston at Angels: Zack Greinke and Dylan Bundy get the starts in this one, where the Angeles are -112. I have the Astros -135 in this one.
Baltimore at New York Yankees: Gerritt Cole and the Yankees are -270 over Dean Kremer and the Orioles, while I have New York -210 in this one. Kremer has been solid in his starts, although not quite up to Cole’s level.
Mets at Philadelphia: The Mets and Marcus Stroman are -130 over the Phillies and Chase Anderson, while I have New York -115. The Mets did open slightly higher and the line has dropped a little bit in this one.
Record: 5-7 (-1.31)
Dropped both plays on Sunday, which is going to happen more often than 2-0 days when you’re taking 95% underdogs. Was expecting Ohtani to just go two innings and be replaced by Claudio, which obviously didn’t take place, so some bad info there. Onto Monday.
Milwaukee at Cubs: The Cubbies and Williams are -115 over the Brewers and Anderson, while I have Milwaukee -142, so will take the Brewers +105 in this one. The Cubs have struggled with lefties a little bit more than the Brewers have struggled with right-handed starting pitchers, so taking a shot on the road dog in this one.
San Francisco at San Diego: The Padres are -154 over the Giants, where DeSclafani makes his first start for the Giants. He’s coming off a disappointing final year with Cincinnati, but Morejon hasn’t really been any better and the Giants can hit left-handers pretty well. I made the Giants -116 in this one, so taking a stab on the Giants +144 for today’s final play.
Houston at Angeles: The Angels and Quintana are down to -115 over the Astros and I have Houston -123 in this one. The Astros waxed the A’s to begin the season and could be worth a look here, but not going to play this one.
St. Louis at Miami: The Marlins are now favored by -115 in this one after the game opened -105 both way. I made the Cardinals -120 in this spot, so the slightest of leans to the Cardinals according to the numbers but another game I’m not going to play.
Tampa Bay at Boston: The Rays and Michael Wacha are -110 against the Red Sox and Pivetta, while I have Boston -130. Still, a little hard to pull the trigger on the Red Sox until they show a little something this season.
Toronto at Texas: The line on the Blue Jays has crept down a little bit and is now in the -150 range, with Matz getting the start against Foltynewicz, while I have the Blue Jays -175.
Dodgers at Oakland: Dustin May and the Dodgers are -155 over Frankie Montas and the Oakland A’s, which is right around where the number opened. Montas didn’t have his greatest season last year, while May was pretty solid, so I have LA -245 in this one. The A’s aren’t as bad as they looked against Houston, but definitely no value here.
Record: 4-6 (-1.75)
A split on Saturday and a little bit of profit, as our two smallest underdogs won and our two larger dogs went down. Have all of the favorites winning today except for two, so those will be the two plays for the days.
Atlanta at Philadelphia: Ian Anderson and the Braves are -121 on the road against Zach Eflin and the Phillies. Both starters were decent last year in terms of runs allowed, although Anderson was a bit better so I have Atlanta -170.
St. Louis at Cincinnati: This one is -110 both ways at William Hill right now and I have the Reds as slight favorites due to Martinez being so bad last season. He has been a much better pitcher in the past, so would like to see a few tarts out of him this season.
Dodgers at Rockies: The Dodgers are -220 in this one, with Julio Urias and Austin Gomber taking the mound. Urias started off well last season before falling apart, while Gomber was solid in a limited number of starts for the Cardinals. The Dodgers hit right-handers a little better than they do lefties, so I have the Rockies -118 in this one and will take Colorado +200 against my Dodgers.
White Sox at Angeles: If the White Sox are facing a left-hander, we’ll most likely be there and that’s the case today, as Ohtani and the Angeles are -120 over Dylan Cease and the Sox. I have Chicago -190, so will take the White Sox +110 in this one for the final play of the day.
Minnesota at Milwaukee: This one is -105 both ways and I have the Twins -265. Adrian Houser was awful last year, as the Brewers allowed five or more runs in nine of his 11 starts. He’s one of those pitchers who looks better throwing than he’s actually performed, so this is a big year for him. Pineda was solid when he was finally able to play last season.
Houston at Oakland: The A’s have stumbled out of the gate and we’re seeing -105 both ways on the game, with Jose Urquidy and Sean Manaea taking the mound for their teams. The Astros have crushed the A’s pitchers for 26 runs through three games, while Oakland has just scored seven. Manaea hasn’t pitched bad against Houston, but the A’s are just 4-10 when he starts against them. The Astros are 0-3 when Urquidy starts against Oakland, so something has to give in this one.
Record: 4-4 (+.25)
A split last night and back to a full slate of games for tonight.
Pittsburgh at Cubs: The Cubbies are -160 in this one at William Hill, with Arrieta and Anderson the listed starters. The Cubs struggled with lefties last season, averaging 2.91 runs per game, but were 7-4 thanks to winning three games where they scored two or fewer runs. The Pirates aren’t known for their offense, but I have them -140 in this one, so will take a shot on Pittsburgh +150.
Arizona at San Diego: The Padres are -203 in this one, with Musgrove going against Caleb Smith and I have it even, so coming back with the Diamondbacks +183 in this one. The Padres were 11-12 against LHP last season and averaged 4.7 runs per game compared to going 30-15 and averaging 5.71 runs against right-handed starters last season, including the playoff games. Arizona didn’t score a lot last season, but averaged 4.8 runs against RHP and 3.65 against lefties.
White Sox at Angels: The White Sox are -125 in this one and I have Los Angeles -135, so will take the Angels +115 in this spot. The two teams were comparable against RHP last season and I have Cobb rated slightly higher. Lance Lynn did his best pitching at home last year, which is a little surprising since Globe Life Field is typically thought of as a hitter’s park, even though the Rangers hit more home runs on the road last year, while Texas pitchers allowed fewer homers at home.
Tampa Bay at Miami: The Rays and Rich Hill are -115 over the Fish and the Hernandez and I have Miami -165, so will take the Marlins +105 for the final wager today. I have Miami -165 and the Marlins are getting a bit of action, as the line has moved downward a little bit today.
Cleveland at Detroit: The Tribe and Plesac are -170 in this one against Julio Teheran and the Tigers and I have Cleveland -225. Teheran was just horrible last year, with the Angels allowing 7 or more runs in eight of his nine starts last year. The lone exception was a 12-5 win over the Astros.
Atlanta at Philadelphia: The Braves are -111 over the Phillies, with Morton and Wheeler getting the starts and I have the Phillies -180. Morton was decent on the road last year away from Trop Field, while Wheeler was quite a bit better at home, so a tough one to play.
Record: 2-2 (+.05)
A split in last night’s games and now we have a slightly smaller slate of games for Friday in one of those things which don’t really make a lot of sense. There’s no reason to give teams a day off after playing one out of 162 games. But it is what it is.
In the early going of the season, we’ll look at some of the trends that developed last year and we’ll start with the large favorites. Between 2016-2019 betting favorites of -200 or more was practically a license to print money, as these teams were 1,134-373, good for a 6.8% return on your wagers. But last year these teams fell to 102-51 and showed a 4.1% loss for every dollar you wagered and started off 1-2 this season, with the Padres and Dodgers both losing.
Dodgers at Colorado: Trevor Bauer makes his debut for the Dodgers and faces Antonio Senzatela. Los Angeles is -265 and I have the Dodgers and Bauer -350 in this one.
Arizona at San Diego: Blake Snell starts for the Padres in this one and San Diego is -230 against Merrill Kelly. Kelly was brilliant last season in his five starts, with Arizona allowing just 11 runs in those games. The Padres get a significant edge in hitting, but with Merrill’s numbers what they were, I have Arizona -130, so will take a shot on Arizona +200 in this one.
Houston at Oakland: Jesus Luzardo and the A’s are -145 over Cristian Javier and the Astros, while I made the A’s -105 in this one.
White Sox at Angeles: Dallas Keuchel and Andrew Heaney get the starts in this one and both teams put up solid offensive numbers against southpaws a year ago. Chicago won’t be matching last season’s 15-0 record against left-handers, but I do have them as solid favorites in this one, while the Angeles are -116, so will take the White Sox +106 in this spot even though the Angels are getting a little bit of action in this one.
Tampa Bay at Miami: The Rays and Ryan Yarbrough are down to -112, as the Marlins are getting a lot of action overnight, while I have the Rays -190. No interest in going against the line move in this one, however, and will just stay clear.
Baltimore at Boston: They’re trying to get this one in again, where the Red Sox and Eovaldi are -175 over John Means and the Orioles and I made Boston -185.
Record: 1-1 (Even)
We ended last season with the smallest of profits despite a record well under .500, due to taking 90% underdogs, along with grabbing LA to win the World Series at the start of the LCS at +170 and then using that wager down the stretch. Favorites have been winning at a higher clip the last few years, so it’s getting tougher to grind out a profit on underdogs. Between 2018 and 2020, favorites have won 61.5% of all games. When you compare that to 2015-2017, when favorites won 58.6% of the time, and 2012-2014, which saw favorites win 57.7% of the games, you can see how favorites have been getting better over the years.
Collectively, teams were 277-261 against left-handed starters last season, averaging 4.63 runs per game and 669-686 against right-handed starters, while averaging the same 4.63 runs per start.
Despite being no fans, home teams were 494-404 (55%) last year, which is actually better than they in any season since 2010. Typically, home teams are going to win about 53.3% of the time.
This season is a little more difficult than some, as there’s a much smaller base to work with, due to the reduced schedule last year. Instead of 162 games to use as our starting base, we have to work with 60, but will make do with what we have.
Quickly, my baseball method makes a line of each game by using the number of runs a team scores compared to the league average and then factors in the number of runs allowed by pitchers on a per-start basis. It’s not the most complex, but we’ve been able to wind up in the black the past few seasons, which is all that matters in the end.
St. Louis at Cincinnati: Luis Castillo and the Reds are -115 over the Cardinals and Jack Flaherty and I made St. Louis -132, so will take the Cardinals +105 in this one. Flaherty had a solid season a year ago with really just one poor start. The Cardinals allowed 4 or fewer runs in nine of Flaherty’s 10 starts, with the lone exception being an 18-3 drubbing at the hands of the Brewers. The Reds were 2-2 in Castillo’s home starts, with two of them being good and two seeing the Reds allow 6 or more runs.
Houston at Oakland: This one is -105 both ways and I have the A’s and I have Bassitt -171, so will take Oakland in this one. The Astros were 7-8 in Greinke’s starts last season, as he didn’t pitch bad, although not quite up to his standards. Houston allowed 16 runs in his four starts against Oakland, going 2-2 in those games. The A’s were 9-4 when Bassitt started and 2-2 against the Astros with him on the mound. This is also a bit of a revenge spot for Oakland, who was knocked out of the playoffs by Houston last year, so a decent spot for the A’s in this one.