The Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros meet each other for the first time this season, opening a three-game series at Minute Maid Park in Houston, so I bring you the best betting pick and odds for their Monday night National League showdown.
The Astros will start Zack Greinke, so they opened as strong favorites to beat the Tigers in the opener. Houston sits at -215 moneyline odds on BetMGM Sportsbook, while Detroit is a huge +195 underdog with a total of 8.5 runs.
The Tigers just got routed by Cleveland
The Detroit Tigers are 3-6 on the young season following a 5-2 defeat at the Cleveland Indians on Sunday afternoon. They extended the losing streak to four games, as the Tigers entered a three-game set in Ohio of a 3-2 home loss to the Minnesota Twins.
During that awful streak, Detroit scored only eight runs in total and surrendered 23 in a return. The Tigers are 26th in the majors in batting average (.204) and 21st in slugging percentage (.365), hitting 11 home runs through their first nine games (tied-8th).
Casey Mize will toe the slab for the Tigers on Monday, and the 23-year-old right-hander tossed four innings in his season debut last Tuesday. Mize didn’t figure in the decision, but the Tigers beat Minnesota 4-3 at home, and Casey yielded just an earned run on five hits and a couple of walks. Last year, he went 0-3 with a 6.99 ERA in seven starts.
The Astros look to bounce back following a day off
The Houston Astros didn’t play on Sunday and are 6-3 on the season after a 2-1 defeat in the Oakland series at home. They beat the A’s in the opener, 6-2, but they struggled a lot in the next two games and suffered a couple of four-run losses as -175 favorites, 6-2, and -148 favorites, 7-3.
Houston started the 2021 MLB season with a road sweep over Oakland, and the Astros tallied a whopping 35 runs through four games while surrendering just nine in a return. They are fourth in the majors in batting average (.280) and second in slugging percentage (.498). The Astros already smacked 16 home runs (tied-1st in the MLB) and recorded just 70 strikeouts (8th).
Zack Greinke took the mound for the Astros on an Opening Day and earned a win in an 8-1 dismantling of the Athletics. Last week, he tossed seven innings in a no-decision against the Angels, allowing a couple of earned runs on five hits and a walk.
The 37-year-old southpaw enters Monday’s clash with a 1.38 ERA and 0.69 WHIP. Greinke meets the Tigers for the first time since 2017, and he’s 13-7 with a 2.69 ERA in 26 career starts and three relief appearances against Detroit.
- 1-11 in the last 12 games on the road
- 3-10 in the last 13 games against the AL West
- 11-2 in the last 13 games against Detroit
- 9-4 in the last 13 games overall
The Astros have slowed down in their last two outings and will look to get back on the right track against the Tigers who haven’t impressed thus far. I’m looking for a strong performance by the hosts, especially on the offensive end even though they’ll meet Casey Mize for the first time.
Houston has owned the Tigers over the last few years. The Astros are 11-2 in their previous 13 meetings with Detroit, and seven of those 11 victories came by two or more runs. If Zack Greinke puts on a solid performance, the Tigers’ bats will have a tough day in the office.
Pick: Take Houston Astros -1.5 at -110
As I’ve mentioned above, the Tigers could easily struggle against Zack Greinke. Still, I hope they will score a few runs, as the Astros’ bullpen owns a 4.41 ERA (15th in the MLB), so I’m backing the over on the totals. The over is 7-4-1 in the last 12 meetings between the Tigers and Astros.
The Tigers’ relievers finished the second week of the season with the worst ERA in baseball (7.08). However, the under has hit in four of their last seven outings. Detroit’s offensive performance is a key factor, so I would stick with the Astros to cover.
Pick: Go over 8.5 runs at -105