The Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox continue their four-game series at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago on Saturday, June 5, so here’s the best MLB betting pick for this American League Central showdown.
The White Sox won the opener this past Thursday, 4-1, and opened as -150 favorites for the second game of the series that’s been excluded from this analysis. They are huge -220 favorites for Saturday’s clash, while the Tigers are +200 road dogs with a total of 8.0 runs on FanDuel Sportsbook.
The Tigers are trying their best to get things going offensively
The Detroit Tigers fell to 23-33 on the season after Thursday’s defeat at the Chi Sox, as they recorded just five hits off Lance Lynn and three relievers to go with 12 strikeouts. The Tigers own the second-lowest scoring offense in the majors, averaging 3.66 runs per game on a .226/.297/.362 slash line.
Detroit has improved recently, slashing .231/.312/.380 over the last 15 days. During that span, the Tigers swept the Yankees in a three-game series at home (3-2, 6-1, and 6-2).
The Tigers are yielding 4.64 runs per contest (20th in the MLB). Tarik Skubal will get the starting nod Saturday, and he’s 2-7 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in nine starts and a couple of relief appearances this season.
Skubal emerged victorious in two of his previous three starts, allowing just four earned runs across 16 frames in that stretch. The 24-year-old left-hander hasn’t met the White Sox so far this season. In his lone career start against the Chi Sox, the lefty was charged for a loss after yielding four earned runs on seven hits through a couple of innings of work.
The White Sox hope to extend their dominance over Detroit
The Chicago White Sox improved to 34-22 on the season following Thursday’s win over Detroit to stay atop of the AL Central, three games ahead of Cleveland and five games ahead of Kansas City. It was their eighth victory over the last 11 games overall, as the Chi Sox continue to chase the Tampa Bay Rays for the best record in the American League.
The White Sox have won 12 of their last 13 games against Detroit. This season, Chicago tallies 4.93 runs per game (tied-5th in the majors) while posting a .255/.341/.409 slash line. On the other side of the ball, the White Sox allow just 3.46 runs per contest (2nd in the MLB).
Lucas Giolito will take the hill Saturday, searching for his fourth straight victory. Over his previous three starts, the 26-year-old righty has allowed only three earned runs on 11 hits while punching out 28 through 21 frames of work. Giolito is 5-4 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 11 starts this season and 5-3 with a 4.37 ERA in 10 career starts against Detroit.
- 1-12 in the last 13 games against the White Sox
- 6-2 in the last eight games overall
- 11-1 in the last 12 home tilts against the Tigers
Lucas Giolito met the Tigers once this term and was charged for a loss, surrendering four earned runs on five hits and three walks across 6.2 frames in a 5-2 defeat. This time, I’m expecting a much better performance from Chicago’s ace, as Giolito has been terrific in each of his last three starts.
On the other side, Tarik Skubal could struggle mightily against the White Sox who are 13-3 against the left-handed starting pitchers in 2021. I’m backing the hosts to cover, as they did in their previous eight victories.
Pick: Take Chicago White Sox -1.5 at -117
The current White Sox are 6-for-6 against Tarik Skubal. I’ve mentioned Chicago’s tremendous record against the southpaws, so I’ll go with the over on the totals, as the White Sox could easily score a bunch of runs here.
On the other side, the Tigers’ offense will have a mountain to climb if Lucas Giolito puts on a strong performance. The current Tigers are batting .218 against Giolito while posting a .593 OPS.
Pick: Go over 8.0 runs at -120