Date & Time: July 4, 2019 1:15 PM (EDT)

Location: Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium Kansas City, Missouri

Betting Odds: Cleveland-116/Kansas City+106

Total O/U: 9.5

The Cleveland Indians (47-38) will go for the three-game sweep of the Kansas City Royals (29-58) this afternoon. Looking to get the sweep for the Indians is starting pitcher Zach Plesac (3-3 3.61 ERA). Trying to pick up a rare win for the Royals will be Homer Bailey (7-6 4.87 ERA).

Plesac has been a solid pitcher in his limited time this season. Four of his seven starts this season he has allowed just one earned run. Plesac’s numbers were a lot better prior to his last start, against the Baltimore Orioles, where he got rocked for seven earned runs in just 3 ⅔ innings. Despite that outing, Plesac still has a WHIP of only 1.11. 10 of his 17 earned runs allowed this season have come via the home run.

Bailey has had some solid outings this season, eight of his 17 starts allowing one earned run or less. However, in his bad outings, he has been really bad, four starts allowing five or more earned runs. Walks have been one of his biggest issues this season (36 in 85 innings) and have contributed to his high 1.40 WHIP on the year. Bailey gave up five earned runs, including two home runs and four walks in five innings in his last start against the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Indians are hot right now, having won eight of their last 11, and the Royals are continuing to struggle, losing seven of their last 10. Plesac has been solid this season other than his last outing and I expect him to rebound today against a struggling Kansas City offense. Bailey is vulnerable to big run innings and I think the hot Cleveland bats get to him today. Once the starters are pulled, Cleveland will bring in the second-best bullpen in terms of ERA, while the Royals rank 20th. Cleveland should shut Kansas City down for most of this game, but I think the Royals pitching staff struggles to continue the Indian’s bats. I like Cleveland to score close to the OVER on their own in this one.

 

CLEVELAND INDIANS vs KANSAS CITY ROYALS FREE PREDICTION

Free MLB Pick: ML Winner – Cleveland, RL Winner – Cleveland, O/U – Over

Confidence Level: 4/5

NOTES

Cleveland is 8-3 SU in their last 11 games.

Cleveland is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against Kansas City.

Cleveland is 8-4 SU in their last 12 road games.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City’s last five games.

Kansas City is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games.

Kansas City is 1-4 SU in their last 5 home games.

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