The Cincinnati Reds and San Diego Padres square off in the third contest of their four-game series at Petco Park in San Diego on Saturday, June 19, with the first pitch set at 7:15 PM ET. I’ve prepared the best Reds vs. Padres betting pick along with the latest odds update, so let’s take a closer look.
The Padres won the opener as -174 home favorites, 6-4. They opened as -200 favorites for the second game of the series that I’m excluding from this analysis, while BetMGM Sportsbook set San Diego as a -180 fave for Saturday’s clash.
The Reds look to get back on the winning path
The Cincinnati Reds put an end to their six-game winning streak this past Thursday, blowing a 4-2 lead in the bottom of the ninth inning. Interestingly, the Reds scored all four runs in the top of the ninth, but Amir Garrett and Ryan Hendrix yielded a couple of earned runs each to prove that the Reds bullpen is a massive issue in 2021.
The Reds are scoring 5.03 runs per game (4th in the majors) while surrendering 5.06 in a return (25th). Their relievers own the highest ERA in baseball (5.64), allowing a whopping 1.52 home runs per nine innings.
Cincy was 35-32 on Friday, sitting at the third spot of the NL Central standings and trailing three games behind the top-seeded Chicago Cubs. Vladimir Gutierrez will take the mound Saturday, and the 25-year-old rookie is 3-1 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in four starts.
Gutierrez will search for his fourth straight victory, facing the Padres for the first time in his career. The righty has allowed exactly a couple of earned runs in each of his previous three starts. He sports a 19/10 KK/B ratio across 23.0 frames of work.
The Padres desperately need more from their offense
The San Diego Padres improved to 39-32 on the season following that dramatic victory over the Reds. Their offense finally showed up in the bottom of the ninth, and it’s fair to say that San Diego’s offense is one of the biggest disappointments of the 2021 MLB season.
The Padres are scoring just 4.45 runs per game (14th in the majors), just above the league average of 4.41. They rank 20th in batting average (.232) and 24th in slugging percentage (.378). Over the last two weeks, the Padres have recorded an awful .651 OPS while batting only .206.
San Diego leans on its pitching staff that sports the second-lowest ERA in baseball (3.14). Dinelson Lamet will toe the slab Saturday, looking to improve his 1-2 record in 2021. The 28-year-old righty registered a 3.33 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and 30/10 K/BB ratio across seven starts and two relief appearances (27 frames).
Lamet met the Reds once, but it was way back in 2017. He got a no-decision, yielding a pair of earned runs on three hits and three walks through five frames.
- 7-13 in the last 20 games against the NL West
- 14-4 in the last 18 games at home
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Pick:
The Padres have so many dangerous weapons on their lineup, and I’m expecting their offense to click sooner rather than later. Vladimir Gutierrez has been terrific in his first four major-league starts, but this time, he’ll face off against some of the best hitters in baseball.
Fernando Tatis has slugged five home runs in his last six games. He needs more help from the rest of the pack, and I’m looking for the Padres to get things going against Gutierrez and the Reds’ hapless bullpen. Also, the Padres’ relievers could make the difference down the stretch.
MLB Picks: Take San Diego Padres at -180
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Total Prediction:
I’m going with the over mostly because of the Reds’ pitching woes. On the other side, the Padres’ relievers are doing a great job, and Dinelson Lamet hasn’t lasted for more than four innings in each but one of his seven starts this term.
It’s a tough wager, but seven of the Reds’ last 11 games produced more than eight runs in total, as well as four of the Padres’ previous five contests, so backing the over seems like the right move. I would stick with the Padres to win.
Pick: Go over 8.5 runs at -110