The MLB betting action continues Wednesday, April 28, 2021, with plenty of interesting matchups on the schedule including the closing contest of a three-game set at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, so here’s the best Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers betting pick.
The Reds upset the reigning champs in the opener as +163 underdogs, 5-3, thanks to Jesse Winker’s two-run homer in the top of the 10th inning. According to William Hill Sportsbook, Cincinnati is a huge +170 out-of-towner for Wednesday’s closer, while Los Angeles is a -185 moneyline fave with a total of 7.5 runs.
Cincy broke out of its funk, hopes to stay on the right path
The Cincinnati Reds (10-12) entered the Dodgers series on a seven-game losing streak. After a strong start of the season and six wins in their first seven showings, the Reds have dropped 11 of their next 15 games and are tied with the Cubs for the fourth spot in the NL Central at the moment.
Cincinnati owns the highest-scoring offense in the majors, scoring 5.55 runs per contest. The Reds are fifth in baseball in batting average (.247) and on-base percentage (.326), and second in slugging percentage (.444). However, over their last nine outings excluding Tuesday’s clash against LA, the Reds have surpassed a four-run line three times.
Sonny Gray will get the ball for the Reds on Wednesday, and the 31-year-old righty is 0-1 with a 7.88 ERA after his first two starts in 2021. Gray missed most of the 2020 season due to an injury and hasn’t looked sharp recently. He’s 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA in a couple of career starts against the Dodgers.
The Dodgers have struggled lately following a terrific start of their 2021 campaign
The Los Angeles Dodgers (15-8) have won 13 of their first 15 games of the season, but over the last ten days, the reigning World Series champions haven’t played well. Excluding their Wednesday’s middle contest of the Reds series, the Boys in Blue have dropped six of their last eight contests including four defeats to the San Diego Padres.
Now, the Dodgers are tied with San Francisco for the top spot in the NL West. Los Angeles is scoring 4.87 runs per game (7th in the MLB) while slashing .242/.345/.416. On the other side of the ball, the Dodgers surrender only 3.57 runs per game (4th in the majors).
Clayton Kershaw will toe the slab Wednesday, and the 33-year-old lefty is 3-2 with a 2.56 ERA this season. Kershaw snapped his three-game winning streak last week, tossing seven innings in 6-1 loss to the Padres while yielding three earned runs on five hits and a walk. He’s 3-2 with a 2.54 ERA in 11 career starts against Cincinnati.
- 1-7 in the last eight games overall
- 1-5 in the last six games on the road
- 6-2 in the last eight games against Cincinnati
- 14-4 in Clayton Kershaw’s last 18 starts
The Winner Prediction
The Dodgers will be all over Sonny Gray who’s allowed 12 hits and five free passes over eight innings of work so far this season. Furthermore, the Reds’ relievers own the fourth-worst ERA in baseball (5.21), so I’m looking for the hosts to win this game on the back of their prolific offense.
On the other side, Kershaw should be keen to bounce back from a poor performance against San Diego, while the Dodgers’ bullpen is 13th in the majors with a 4.00 ERA. If the Reds find their groove at the plate, they could keep it close, so I would avoid the hosts to cover and take them straight-up instead.
Pick: Take Los Angeles Dodgers at -185
The current Reds lineup is batting only .157 against Kershaw. Still, the Reds are leading the majors in home runs (34) and should have enough firepower to score a couple of runs, but their defense will have a mountain to climb in this one.
While Sonny Gray is far away from his top form, the Reds are yielding the third-most runs per game this term (4.95). I’m expecting the Dodgers’ offense to dominate this game, so give me the over on the totals.
Pick: Go over 7.5 runs at -110