The MLB betting action continues Thursday, June 3, with the marquee matchup between the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros, as these two American League foes wrap up a four-game series at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas.
I’ve excluded the third contest of this series from the analysis, as the Astros opened as -137 home favorites to win the closer, while the Red Sox are +127 dogs with a total of 9.0 runs on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Houston took the first two games, dismantling the Red Sox 11-2 in the opener and 5-1 in the second contest this past Tuesday.
The Red Sox need more from their offense
The Boston Red Sox own the fourth-highest scoring offense in the majors, tallying 5.00 runs per game, but over their last seven outings, the Sawx scored more than three runs only twice. Through their last four showings, the Red Sox have been batting just .225 while posting a poor .633 OPS.
After that 5-1 defeat to Houston, Boston fell to 32-22 on the season and trailed a couple of games behind the AL East leader, Tampa Bay.
On the other side of the ball, Boston is yielding 4.24 runs per game (14th in the MLB). Martin Perez will take the mound Thursday, and the 30-year-old southpaw is 3-2 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in ten starts this season.
Perez is riding on a three-game winning streak, allowing five earned runs on 13 hits and five walks across 17 innings of work during that span. He’s 7-4 with a 2.70 ERA in 12 career starts against the Astros and 1-3 with a 2.97 ERA in five career starts at Minute Maid Park.
The Astros look to stay hot at the plate
The Houston Astros have dropped six of their last ten games and were still second in the AL West with a 30-24 record on Wednesday, just half a game behind the Oakland Athletics. They beat San Diego at home last Sunday, 7-4, and the Astros certainly carried the momentum into the Red Sox series.
Over their last five games, the Astros have posted the fifth-best OPS in the majors (.783) while batting .250 (7th). Houston owns the highest-scoring offense in baseball, averaging 5.35 runs per game. On the other side of the ball, the Astros are yielding 4.22 runs per contest (13th).
Jake Odorizzi will get the starting call Thursday against the Red Sox, and the 31-year-old righty is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in four starts this season. Odorizzi is 4-6 with a 4.70 ERA in 18 career starts against Boston.
- 12-4 in the last 16 games when listed as underdogs
- 2-4 in the last six games when listed as favorites
The Red Sox have won just two of their last eight games against the Astros, but I think they stand a chance in this one, as they know Jake Odorizzi very well. It’s a similar story with Martin Perez and the Astros, but Perez has played better than Odorizzi so far this season.
In fact, Odorizzi has tossed only 13.1 frames thus far while struggling with injuries. The Red Sox need to regain their groove at the plate, and the Astros’ pitching staff looks pretty shaky. Houston’s relievers own the 11th-highest ERA in baseball (4.50).
Pick: Take Boston Red Sox at +127
My best Red Sox vs. Astros betting pick is the over on the totals, as I don’t trust either of those two guys who’ll toe the slab Thursday. Odorizzi is a bit of a mystery, while the current Red Sox are batting 20-for-71 against him while posting a .663 OPS. On the other side, the current Astros are batting 34-for-103 against Perez while recording a .798 OPS.
I’ve mentioned how dangerous these two teams are offensive-wise. Furthermore, the over is 13-3 in the Astros’ last 16 games overall, and it is 5-2 in Boston’s previous seven outings on the road.
Pick: Go over 9.0 runs at -120