The Baltimore Orioles meet the Houston Astros for the second and final time this regular season, opening a three-game series at Minute Maid Park in Houston on Monday, June 28, with the first pitch at 8:10 PM ET.
These two American League foes met each other in Baltimore last week, and the Astros swept the O’s while scoring a whopping 26 runs in a three-game set. Houston opened as a massive -300 fave for Monday’s clash, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, so let’s take a look at the teams’ recent form and stats and see what’s the best Orioles vs. Astros betting pick.
The O’s finally snapped their road skid
The Baltimore Orioles put an end to their 20-game losing streak away from home last Friday. They beat Toronto 6-5 in ten innings, and it was the Orioles’ second win in the last 18 games overall. Baltimore is the worst team in the American League, sitting bottom of the AL East with a 24-54 record, and O’s have dropped 22 of their previous 23 tilts on the road.
The Orioles own the highest ERA in baseball (5.50), and over the last two weeks, they’ve recorded an awful 7.45 ERA and 1.72 WHIP while yielding 24 home runs in the process. Things are going bad on the other side of the ball as well, as Baltimore has recorded a poor .611 OPS in its last 15 games while batting just .208.
Thomas Eshelman will get the starting nod Monday, his third in 2021. Eshelman is 0-1 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, and after a strong performance against the Blue Jays on June 18, the 27-year-old righty got pounded for six earned runs through four innings against the Astros this past Wednesday.
The Astros aim for their seventh straight home win
The 48-30 Houston Astros are coming off a tough 2-1 loss at Detroit on Sunday afternoon, as they split a four-game series against the hapless Tigers. They also split a seven-inning doubleheader on Saturday, as the Astros lost the first game 3-1 but bounced back with a 3-2 win in the second tilt.
Houston hasn’t dropped two straight games since May, and the Astros are 16-4 over their last 20 games overall. They’ve won six in a row at Minute Maid Park, sweeping the White Sox in a four-game set in that span.
The Astros are swinging a hot bat at the moment. They’ve registered a terrific .310/.389/.525 slash line over the last 14 games and 480 at-bats. On the other side of the ball, Houston’s pitching staff has recorded a sparkly 1.91 ERA and 0.97 WHIP during that stretch.
Zack Greinke will toe the rubber Monday, searching for his third straight victory. The 37-year-old righty is 8-2 in 16 starts this season, sporting a 3.56 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, and he’s had some ups and downs. Still, Greinke is 4-1 in his last six starts, allowing 14 earned runs across 39 frames in the process.
- 2-16 in the last 18 games overall
- 1-22 in the last 23 games on the road
- 24-5 in the last 29 games against Baltimore
- 12-2 in the last 14 games overall
Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros Prediction
The Astros destroyed Thomas Eshelman last week, and I’m looking for more of the same in this one. On the other side, the current Orioles are only 6-for-40 against Zack Greinke. Baltimore has struggled against the right-handers so far this season, slashing .217/.286/.364, so give me the Astros to cover a 1.5-run spread.
Greinke tossed 7.1 innings of a one-run ball against the O’s last Tuesday, allowing just five hits and a walk while striking out four in a 3-1 victory. Even if he starts to struggle, I think the Astros will score enough runs against the Orioles’ terrible pitching staff.
MLB Picks: Take Houston Astros -1.5 at -133
Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros Total:
The bookies set the line pretty high, and it’s because of the Orioles’ pitching woes and the Astros’ potent offense. However, the Orioles could easily struggle against Greinke and the Astros bullpen, as they did last week when Houston won the middle contest at Camden Yards, 3-1.
The totals seem a tricky wager, and I would stick with the Astros to cover. Greinke is unpredictable, and he’s allowed a home run in each but one of his last six outings. The over has hit in four of the last five meetings between Houston and Baltimore, and four of those five games produced 12 or more runs in total including the Astros’ 23-2 victory at Camden Yards on August 10, 2019.
Pick: Go over 9.5 runs at +100