The Baltimore Orioles and Chicago White Sox will close down their four-game series at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago on Sunday afternoon with the first pitch at 2:10 PM ET, so I’ve prepared the best MLB betting pick for this American League showdown.
The White Sox easily outlasted the Orioles in the opener this past Thursday, 5-1. Friday’s contest was rained out, so the teams played a twin-biller Saturday, and the White Sox won the first clash 7-4.
I’ll exclude the second game of a doubleheader from this analysis, so let’s see what’s the best Orioles vs. White Sox betting pick for Sunday afternoon. The hosts opened as massive -250 favorites on BetMGM Sportsbook, while the totals are set at 8.5 runs.
Baltimore’s free fall continues
The Baltimore Orioles were on an 11-game losing streak following that 7-4 defeat at the Chi Sox on Saturday afternoon. It was their 17th defeat in the last 19 games overall, as the O’s fell to 17-34 on the season, sitting bottom of the AL East standings.
The Orioles continue to surrender a bunch of runs. They are sporting a horrible 6.22 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in May. The O’s are batting .245 over the last two weeks (11th in the majors) while slugging .431 (9th), but their pitching staff has been absolutely terrible.
Keegan Akin will get the starting nod Sunday, his first in 2021, and the 26-year-old southpaw owns a 6.10 ERA and 1.26 WHIP across 10.1 frames of work in four relief appearances this season. Akin is 1-2 with a 5.00 ERA in six career starts and six relief appearances. He’s never met the White Sox before.
The White Sox hope for another strong performance at home
The Chicago White Sox have won nine of their last 12 home contests, improving to 30-20 on the season with a 7-4 victory over the O’s in the first contest of Saturday’s doubleheader. They were topping the AL Central, three games ahead of the Cleveland Indians.
The Chi Sox are tallying 5.00 runs per game (5th in the majors) on a .256/.343/.405 slash line. Over the last two weeks, their OPS of .756 has been the 11th-best in baseball, while Chicago’s pitching staff has recorded a 3.17 ERA during that stretch (7th in the MLB).
Lucas Giolito will toe the rubber Sunday, searching for his third win in a row. The 26-year-old righty has yielded only a couple of runs in his previous two starts and 14 innings of work while striking out 16 in the process. Giolito is 4-4 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in ten starts this term.
- 1-10 in the last 11 games on the road
- 2-17 in the last 19 games overall
- 8-4 in the last 12 home games against Baltimore
- 9-3 in the last 12 outings at home
The White Sox are destroying the southpaws. They own an 11-3 record against the left-handed starting pitchers this season, and I’m looking for another strong performance Sunday against the struggling Orioles.
On the other side, Lucas Giolito has had a few terrible games so far this season, but the righty has been impressive in his previous two starts. Giolito is 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA in two career starts against Baltimore, but he hasn’t met the O’s since 2018.
Pick: Take Chicago White Sox -1.5 at -130
The current Orioles are batting .400 against Giolito, though they haven’t met each other for a while. Still, the O’s are doing a solid job offensively, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they score a few runs in this one.
The White Sox, on the other side, could easily torture the Orioles’ pitching staff for six or more runs, so I have to go with the over on the totals. Baltimore has allowed five or more runs in six of its last eight outings.
Pick: Go over 8.5 runs at -110