The biggest perceived mismatch heading into Week 4 of the NFL season is Texans vs Bills. With the Bills being a massive favorite heading into this matchup, there will be pressure on them to perform against an overmatched Houston team. In our Week 4 NFL predictions, the spotlight is put on the Texans and Bills, as we determine what bets are worth making in this contest that is not expected to be all that competitive.
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Texans vs Bills Betting Pick
This game will be played at Highmark Stadium at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 3, 2021.
Why Bet The Texans vs Bills Under:
✅ Two of the three games the Bills have played so far this season have gone under the total. Against an offensively challenged Texans team, they are likely to keep this game under the total as well in a scheduling spot befitting of an under.
✅ The scheduling spot for the Bills involves them potentially coming out flat this week given their Week 5 matchup. Buffalo plays the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football the week after they play against the Texans. For that reason, we could see a less than focused Bills team come out flat and not put up as many points as they normally would.
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✅ Houston did not contribute to the total last week, in Davis Mills’ first career start in the NFL. Houston put up just nine points against a solid Carolina defense at home, and should struggle again against a Bills defense that is top-five in yards per play allowed through the first three weeks of the year.
Houston Texans
After a couple of weeks of decent football, the Houston Texans could not overcome their quarterback situation last week on Thursday Night Football. With Davis Mills thrust into starting quarterback duties, Houston was held to single digits against the Carolina Panthers in what was their second straight loss. Against the Bills, Houston will need to bring more on the offensive side of the ball to compete.
The hope for this game will be that Mills gained some valuable experience last week that can help him this week in Orchard Park. But that is far from a guarantee, as Mills will be forced to play an elite defense for the second game in a row. One thing that is working in Houston’s favor, though, is that they have an extra few days of rest this week after playing on Thursday Night Football.
Buffalo Bills
After losing in Week 1 to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Buffalo Bills have won two straight games against the Miami Dolphins and Washington Football Team. Since their initial hiccup at home against Pittsburgh, Josh Allen and the Bills offense has been firing on all cylinders. They have scored 78 points in their last two games, with the Bills looking like the contenders they were expected to be heading into the year.
Against the Texans, the biggest key for the Bills will be to simply remain focused on the task at hand. Buffalo plays the Chiefs next week in a Sunday Night Football showdown, and they will have to work hard to avoid looking ahead to that matchup. As long as they remain focused on the lowly Texans, the Bills should come out of this game with a 3-1 record for the season.