In the Western Conference this season, the Denver Nuggets are at the head of the table. The top team in the West will host a Golden State Warriors team on a back to back on Thursday night, in a game where several Warriors stars are set to sit out. In our NBA betting picks for Thursday night, we break down that Warriors vs Nuggets matchup.
Warriors vs Nuggets Betting Pick
| ℹ️ The Pick: | Nuggets -11.5 |
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This game will be played at Ball Arena at 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, February 2, 2023.
Why Bet the Nuggets:
✅ Reports indicate that the Nuggets are set to rest their top starters in this game after playing in Minnesota on Wednesday night. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are likely to be among those rested, which will negatively impact the Warriors in a big way.
✅ Even with Curry and Thompson, the Warriors have been dismal on the road this season. They dropped to 7-19 in road games after last night’s loss to the Timberwolves, and they will continue to struggle away from Chase Center here.
✅ Denver, meanwhile, is an incredibly 23-4 at home on the year. They are 16-10-1 against the spread at home on the season, which is tied for the sixth best mark in the league in that department.
NBA
Golden State Warriors
Denver Nuggets
Team Stats Per Game
Team Stats Per 100 Poss
Offense/Defense
| GS | Team Stats Per 100 Poss | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Games | 24 |
| 41.7 | FG | 42.6 |
| 91.8 | FGA | 91.0 |
| .454 | FG% | .468 |
| 15.4 | 3Pt-FG | 13.6 |
| 41.4 | 3Pt-FGA | 37.9 |
| .373 | 3Pt% | .359 |
| 26.2 | 2Pt-FG | 29.0 |
| 50.4 | 2Pt-FGA | 53.1 |
| .520 | 2Pt% | .545 |
| 14.6 | FT | 15.2 |
| 20.7 | FTA | 20.0 |
| .702 | FT% | .759 |
| 13.0 | ORB | 11.7 |
| 34.5 | DRB | 31.1 |
| 47.6 | TRB | 42.8 |
| 29.2 | AST | 28.9 |
| 9.0 | STL | 8.9 |
| 5.2 | BLK | 5.7 |
| 14.4 | TOV | 14.6 |
| 20.0 | PF | 20.7 |
| 113.3 | PTS | 113.9 |
Defense/Offense
| GS | Team Stats Per 100 Poss | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Games | 24 |
| 39.2 | FG | 43.3 |
| 88.2 | FGA | 87.5 |
| .445 | FG% | .494 |
| 12.9 | 3Pt-FG | 11.3 |
| 38.0 | 3Pt-FGA | 29.7 |
| .338 | 3Pt% | .380 |
| 26.4 | 2Pt-FG | 32.0 |
| 50.2 | 2Pt-FGA | 57.8 |
| .525 | 2Pt% | .553 |
| 17.9 | FT | 18.7 |
| 23.2 | FTA | 24.9 |
| .773 | FT% | .753 |
| 10.9 | ORB | 10.8 |
| 34.4 | DRB | 33.2 |
| 45.3 | TRB | 44.0 |
| 26.1 | AST | 30.1 |
| 7.6 | STL | 8.9 |
| 6.1 | BLK | 4.6 |
| 15.2 | TOV | 14.5 |
| 17.8 | PF | 18.0 |
| 109.2 | PTS | 116.5 |
Four Factors
Offense/Defense
| GS | Four Factors | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| .538 | eFG% | .542 |
| 12.5 | TOV% | 12.8 |
| 27.5 | RB% | 74.0 |
| .159 | FT/FGA | .166 |
Defense/Offense
| GS | Four Factors | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| .518 | eFG% | .559 |
| 13.4 | TOV% | 12.9 |
| 76.1 | RB% | 25.7 |
| .203 | FT/FGA | .214 |
Analytics
| GS | Analytics | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pythag Wins | 14 |
| 9 | Pythag Losses | 10 |
| 4.12 | Margin Of Victory | 2.71 |
| 113.3 | O Rtg | 116.5 |
| 109.2 | D Rtg | 113.9 |
| 100.1 | Pace | 101.4 |
| .226 | FTr | .284 |
| .451 | 3PAr | .339 |
| .562 | TS% | .592 |
Betting Trends
| GS | Betting Trends | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 2-1-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 1-2-0 |
| 2-1-0 | ATS W/L/P | 2-1-0 |
| 123.67 | Avg Score | 113.33 |
| 118.67 | Avg Opp Score | 115.33 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 2-1-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 2-1-0 |
| 2-1-0 | ATS W/L/P | 2-1-0 |
| 120.67 | Avg Score | 118.33 |
| 117.67 | Avg Opp Score | 108.33 |
| GS | Betting Trends | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 3-2-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 2-3-0 |
| 2-3-0 | ATS W/L/P | 2-3-0 |
| 121.8 | Avg Score | 107.6 |
| 119.2 | Avg Opp Score | 109 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 3-2-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 4-1-0 |
| 4-1-0 | ATS W/L/P | 3-2-0 |
| 121.4 | Avg Score | 119.8 |
| 118.4 | Avg Opp Score | 111.2 |
| GS | Betting Trends | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 6-4-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 7-3-0 |
| 6-4-0 | ATS W/L/P | 5-5-0 |
| 123.6 | Avg Score | 115 |
| 119.4 | Avg Opp Score | 110.6 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 5-5-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 9-1-0 |
| 6-4-0 | ATS W/L/P | 6-3-1 |
| 120.2 | Avg Score | 120.9 |
| 122.2 | Avg Opp Score | 107.7 |
Head to Head
Teams Last 10
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Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors suffered a heartbreaking loss on Wednesday night against the Minnesota Timberwolves. They were up by double digits early in the fourth quarter before completely collapsing on both ends of the floor. They lost that game in overtime, and will be tasked with playing for a second straight night here against Denver.
With this being the second night of a back to back, the Warriors are going to sit out several key players in all likelihood. Against a team led by the league MVP in Nikola Jokic, this game could get ugly for the Warriors without their top stars available.
Denver Nuggets
Last time out, the Denver Nuggets crushed the New Orleans Pelicans in the second half at home to come away with a win. The Nuggets improved to 35-16 overall and 23-4 at home with that win over the Pels, records they will look to improve on against the Golden State Warriors in this contest.
For the Nuggets, the key to this game will be not taking the Warriors lightly, even if their stars are unlikely to play here. This Warriors group has beaten teams with its reserves before, and the Nuggets will need to play with their typical energy level to avoid being put on upset alert by a less than star-studded ensemble for Golden State.
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