We at ATS are getting you ready for the 2022-2023 NBA season with a preview of each division. The Pacific Division is the last one on our list. We will have a synopsis for each team in the division as well as the best season-long betting picks for that division.
November In Season Update
Up to this point in the season, we have two of our Pacific Division wagers looking rock solid. The third is a toss up, but is one that seems likely to right itself. Our wagers on the Suns to win the division and get to 53 wins are looking good. The 10-6 Suns lead the division at this moment. The Warriors, who sit at just 8-9, have certainly not started the season the way we envisioned. Of course they are a team that can historically get white hot and rattle off many wins in a row, but they have not gotten to anything resembling that quite yet.
The 9-6 Kings are one of the league’s biggest surprises to this point. They are pacing to be competitive in the playoff race and also to obliterate their preseason win total. We did lean the wins over on the Kings, and that is looking good. Another preseason lean that looks good was the under 45.5 wins on the Lakers. They sit at just 5-10 and have the look of a team pacing for a high end lottery pick more than a team that would even sniff the playoffs.
As far as live wagering for the season goes, there are no new attractive wagers on updated win totals. IN fact, only two teams in the division are currently on the board with a win total. In terms of the division winner, the Suns at -125 are the only team still worth a look. Of course we will never come close to sniffing that egregious yet wonderful +225 price we got in the preseason, but the current price including all factors is still a sound one.
Last Season’s Pacific Division Results
The Suns easily won the division last season and did so with the NBA’s best record. Their 64-18 mark was the best in the league by a full eight games. The Warriors and Clippers finished 11 and 22 games back respectively, finding their way into the playoffs. The Lakers and Kings were 31 and 34 games back and did not make it to any portion of the postseason tournament.
NBA Pacific Division Best Bets
Suns Over 52.5 wins
Suns To Win Division +225
Warriors Over 51.5 Wins
NBA Pacific Division Team Previews
| Pacific Team | Division Win Odds | Win Totals |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Clippers | +190 | 52.5 |
| Golden State Warriors | +195 | 51.5 |
| Phoenix Suns | +200 | 52.5 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | +950 | 45.5 |
| Sacramento Kings | +24000 | 33.5 |
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers have much higher expectations heading into this season now that they are fully healthy. They played all of last season without Kawhi Leonard, and should have him paired with Paul George to form the bet wing tandem in the league. Those two players have no question marks in terms of ability, but they do in terms of expected health. Assuming they are on the court for the majority of the season, we will of course see an improved team. I do expect a very conservative approach in terms of load management for their stars. Even if both players remain healthy, they will miss many games for rest purposes.
I am perhaps lower than consensus on the remainder of the roster, but there is not a world of awe inspiring players after their stars. Adequate is a better term for them. John Wall will take over the point, but he has been just a shell of the former player we knew for years now. Norman Powell will be a back up scorer on the wing. Reggie Jackson and Terrance Mann will see plenty of back court minutes. Ivica Zubac, Robert Covington and Marcus Morris will man the interior. With the lack of difference makers beyond their big two and the expectation of their big two to get plenty of rest nights off, it is difficult to like them to get past their 52.5 win total, or to win the difficult division. The Clippers are a better team to gauge once the playoffs arrive and assessed given their level of health.
Golden State Warriors
The perennially contending Warriors will be no different this season than they have been in many seasons past. The defending champs are once again built for a title run, and will be a team that can find equal success in the regular season and the postseason. The Warriors return every key component to last year’s success, and also have a potential star re-entering the fold.
The starting lineup of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney all return. Also returning is underrated key piece of the rotation Jordan Poole, and three highly drafted young players with very real ability. We saw Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga’s talent on display last season, and it has been easy to forget that 2020 second overall pick James Wiseman is still in the fold, and will be back and a large part of the rotation this season. It would be completely unsurprising to see him take over the starting center role sooner than later. The combination of sustained high end veteran ability combined with youthful development and ability will keep the win floor high and the postseason threat large. Take the Warriors to go over on their 51.5 win total.
Phoenix Suns
The Suns are fresh off a season where they absolutely lapped the field in the regular season. The 64 wins were eight more than the next best result. That was followed by an uninspiring playoff collapse where the usage of Deandre Ayton and the health of Chris Paul were massive factors. The Suns return their core, headlined by Devin Booker, Paul and Ayton. They also return Mikal Bridges on the wing and Cameron Johnson, who should be elevated to the starting power forward role. The Suns also return all of their key reserves, with the exception of Javale McGee. That is likely a non factor however as Bismack Biyombo can cover those minutes in the same fashion.
The Suns question marks do not come in the regular season. They will come in the postseason. The expected fall off from the oddsmakers on a well coached team that was dominant in the regular season last year is mind boggling. Even with improvement in the rest of the Western Conference, the Suns remain the best bet for the team with the best record. That of course points towards bets on both the over on their win total of 52.5 and to win the division at a whopping +220.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers will hope to rebound from a disastrous season. With absences from both Lebron James and Anthony Davis, the Lakers fell well short of expectation. Of course, simply the health and presence of James and Davis will improve their fortunes dramatically. That said, the remainder of the roster brings huge question marks as to the overall ceiling of this squad. Russell Westbrook returns and the team brought in Patrick Beverly. It goes without saying that we have to assume these two players legitimately do not like each other and how team chemistry will be affected.
Outside of the players mentioned, the remainder of the roster is riddled with role players and replacement level talents. We will likely see the Lakers have a drama filled season that leads to a low seeded playoff berth and early exit. The win total of 45.5 calls for a look at the under, but they are a team best avoided.
Sacramento Kings
The Kings player and coaching movement was once again high throughout last season and in the offseason. With a core of De’Aaron Fox, Keegan Murray and Domantis Sabonis, the Kings have enough to try to aim for a lower seeded playoff spot. They will also have Harrison Barnes and Kevin Huerter in the starting lineup. Davion Mitchell will be a very key piece off the bench, as will Richaun Holmes and Malik Monk. In a different division or in the East, expectations may be slightly higher for the Kings. In the current state, the only team they have a realistic expectation of finishing ahead of in the division is the Lakers. With the 33.5 win total significantly depressed compared to the rest of the division, they are worth a look at the over, but it is not one of the strongest plays in the division.
