The 2026 NBA Finals shift back to Texas for Game 5 with the New York Knicks one win over the San Antonio Spurs away from ending a championship drought that dates back more than 50 years. New York enters Saturday night holding a 3-1 series lead after producing one of the most dramatic victories in NBA Finals history, erasing a 29-point deficit before OG Anunoby’s tip-in delivered a 107-106 victory in Game 4. San Antonio now faces an elimination game on its home floor after letting a seemingly secure win slip away. Continue reading for my breakdown of Knicks vs Spurs Game 5, and my prediction for what could be the final game of the NBA season.
Our Knicks vs Spurs Game 5 Prediction
- Pick: Knicks +5.5
- Confidence: 4 out of 5
New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs Model Projection
- Score Projection: Spurs 109 – Knicks 106
- Win Probability: Spurs 54%, Knicks 46%
The market expects a strong response from San Antonio, installing the Spurs as 5.5-point favorites despite trailing 3-1 in the series. That number feels slightly inflated given how competitive this matchup has been throughout the Finals. Three of the four games have been decided by six points or fewer, including New York’s one-point victories in Games 2 and 4.
San Antonio should benefit from returning home, where the crowd will be desperate to help extend the series. Victor Wembanyama remains the biggest matchup problem on the floor, and the Spurs are unlikely to suffer another collapse of the magnitude seen in Game 4. Even so, the Knicks have repeatedly shown they can hang around in close games thanks to Jalen Brunson’s shot creation, Karl-Anthony Towns’ versatility, and Anunoby’s two-way impact. While the Spurs may escape with a victory, taking the points with New York offers the stronger betting value.
It is also entirely possible that Game 4 breaks the Spurs once and for all. We have seen the Knicks destroy teams in elimination games in this postseason so far, going 3-0 in those situations, with all of those wins coming by double-digits. In that case, the Knicks would cover with ease as an underdog, while more risk-tolerant bettors may want to take the Knicks on the moneyline.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
- Date & Time: Saturday, June 13, 2026, 8:30 PM ET
- Venue: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas
- Broadcast: ABC
New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs Same Game Parlay
- Leg 1: Knicks +5.5 (-112)
- Leg 2: Jalen Brunson 29+ Points (-108)
- Leg 3: Victor Wembanyama 12+ Rebounds (-118)
Parlay Odds: +455
The foundation of this parlay is another competitive contest. Brunson has carried New York throughout the postseason and erupted for 36 points in Game 4. Wembanyama remains the dominant interior presence in the series and continues to post elite rebounding numbers. Combining those two player outcomes with Knicks +5.5 creates an appealing correlated parlay wager.
New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs Prop Bet
OG Anunoby Over 18.5 Points (-105)
Anunoby has become one of the biggest stories of the Finals. He scored 33 points in Game 4 and has consistently punished San Antonio when defenses overload on Brunson. With the Spurs likely sending extra attention toward New York’s lead guard, Anunoby should continue to receive quality scoring opportunities from the perimeter and in transition.
Injury Report
- New York Knicks: No major rotation players expected to miss Game 5.
- San Antonio Spurs: No significant injuries reported among the primary rotation entering Game 5.
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Knicks lead the NBA Finals 3-1.
- The Knicks are 13-5 against the spread in the playoffs so far.
- San Antonio is 14-8 against the spread in the 2026 postseason.
Stat Comparison
| Category (Playoffs) | Knicks | Spurs |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive Rating | 120.7 | 114.3 |
| Defensive Rating | 104.7 | 105.7 |
| Net Rating | +16.0 | +8.6 |
| Pace | 96.41 | 98.52 |
| Effective FG % | 57.4% | 53.6% |
| Rebound % | 54.1% | 50.7% |
San Antonio clearly has the urgency edge and remains one of the league’s strongest home teams. The Spurs also held a commanding lead in Game 4 before the collapse, suggesting they can still dictate stretches of this series. Wembanyama’s ability to impact both ends of the floor gives San Antonio the higher single-game ceiling.
Still, the Knicks have shown remarkable composure throughout this postseason. Brunson continues to deliver in big moments, Towns creates difficult matchup decisions, and Anunoby is playing the best basketball of his playoff career. New York has won three of the four Finals games and has repeatedly found answers when the pressure rises.
The most likely outcome is a highly competitive game that stays within a few possessions throughout the fourth quarter. San Antonio may have enough to survive and send the series back to New York, but laying 5.5 points against a Knicks team that has thrived in close contests feels risky. My recommendation is to take New York plus the points, with a projected final score of Spurs 109, Knicks 106.
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