UFC Vegas 49
UFC Vegas 49 takes place on Saturday, February 26th. The card streams live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The 11 fight card starts at 4PM EST.
For the second consecutive week we have a main event that fell apart. Last week’s cancelled main event was rescheduled, but this one has seen a replacement fighter called upon. The original Islam Makhachev vs Beneil Dariush had to be scrapped due to Dariush breaking his fibula. The word on the street is the fight was offered to multiple fighters within rankings, but all declined. Enter Bobby Green.
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Main Event
Green has been on an absolute tear of late. Technically, he has only won five of his last seven fights, but we do need to talk about how he has been a victim of poor judging. One of the two losses was an egregious decision call that the judges gave to Thiago Moises. Even going back a bit further, Green was robbed by the judging in his two fights leading into this stint of winning five of seven. In my eyes, Green has won nine of his last ten fights. The loss is not one to be ashamed of either. That was a close fight with master striker Rafael Fiziev.
Now that Green has agreed to this main event at a catch weight of 160 lbs, he gets the biggest wrestling test of his career against Islam Makhachev. We all know what Makhachev goes into the octagon to do, and that is to wrestle and grapple. Makhachev is wildly proficient at moving opponents back to the cage and working his takedowns from there. He is methodical with his takedowns and then in turn with his top control work. He makes this style work well for him, no one wins nine in a row on accident. That said, his sort of grinding style can truly be a grind to watch.
How The UFC Vegas 49 Main Event Plays Out
Makhachev is rightfully favored to win this fight, but the current betting line is wildly wide. He is in the neighborhood of -860 depending on the book you are looking at. Now, Makhachev is a fighter that grinds out his takedowns against the fence. He is not nearly as much an open mat wrestler. While there are very few in the world that can completely shut out the approach of Makhachev, Green’s style is one that can make things difficult for him.
Green’s striking is extremely crisp and his movement is high end. He is a very difficult fighter to back to the cage. Therein could lie the frustrations for Makhachev, at least early on. Green is going to be the superior striker and the busier striker. The more time Green is able to keep this fight upright, the more he will give himself a chance to win.
Do not mistake my meaning here. Makhachev should be a favorite, and not in the -150 range. It should be -300 to -400 betting line, but the length at which it is stretched out is bordering on ridiculous. I am not able to make a dedicated betting pick for this fight, but there are two values I would recommend attacking, one on each side.
Attractive Values
Depending on which fighter you are comfortable backing, there is an option on each side. The +600 flat line on Green is the true value. If you want to take the moon shot on the underdog, that is the path. On the Makhachev side, it is a prop that brings the big value. Makhachev via decision sits at a juicy +300. Considering how difficult it is to finish Green, the value there is very real. In 18 UFC fights, Green has been finished just one time, and that was by Dustin Poirier in 2016. He has never been submitted in the UFC and has not been finished in the six years since.
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UFC Vegas 49 Undercard
The remainder of this Fight Night card truly leaves something to be desired. Our co-main event is between Misha Cirkunov and Wellington Turman. To put the level of this co-main in perspective, Cirkunov lost his middleweight debut to an unranked fighter. Turman has been finished in two of his last three by unranked fighters. We will however have a bet on this fight, so more on it later.
The remainder of the card brings no star power, but it does have some fun finishers still early in their UFC tenure. It also has a pair of fun matchups on the main card that will be interesting to watch. Those matchups are the Armen Tsarukyan vs Joel Alvarez and Armen Petrosyan vs Gregory Rodrigues matchups.
The fight card lost a fight on Wednesday. Hannah Goldy fell ill and her matchup with Jinh Yu Frey has been scrapped. That was a shame because we were going to have a betting play on the underdog.
Even still, we will have no shortage of betting action. We will have bets on five of the eleven remaining fights. We only have two large plus figures we are shooting at on this card. Additionally we are continuing to avoid high risk. We will not have to lay more than -125 on any of our betting plays. Let’s get right into them.
UFC Vegas 49 Bet Sheet
Click the links below to read our bets and analyses.
Misha Cirkunov vs Wellington Turman
Ji Yeon Kim vs Priscila Cachoeira
Josiane Nunes vs Ramona Pascual
Fares Ziam vs Terrance McKinney
Ramiz Brahimaj vs Micheal Gillmore
Other Fight Predictions
Islam Makhachev via decision over Bobby Green
Joel Alvarez via KO over Arman Tsarukyan
Gregory Rodrigues via submission over Armen Petrosyan
Ignacio Bahamondes via KO over Rongzhu
Alejandro Perez via decision over Jonathan Martinez
Victor Altamirano via decision over Carlos Hernandez