Fares Ziam vs Terrance McKinney Fight Odds
Fares Ziam -130 vs Terrance McKinney
Fight is at 155 lbs and is -190 to end inside the distance.
This fight should be fun, but I expect it to be a short one. I will get to the why on the briefness of the fight in a moment, but want to explore the betting line first. Ziam as a favorite in this fight does not sit well with me. Ziam now has three UFC fights under his belt, going 2-1 in three decisions. The middle of the three fights against Jamie Mullarkey was a decision call that went his way, but was an absolute robbery. Truly nonsensical when going back and rewatching the fight.
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Skill Sets
Ziam is a measured point striker that does have a solid skill set. That said, he is not an explosive striker and is a fighter that will often remain reliant on judges in the UFC. He will be the more technical striker in this matchup, but to be blunt, that will not matter. The test for Ziam will be surviving the explosion from Terrance McKinney early on in the fight. This is why I said I believe the fight will be brief.
McKinney brings huge energy at the onset of fights, and walks in the cage to knock his opponent out. He is a finisher through and through, and will put the chin of Ziam to the test from the onset. The speed at which McKinney has been finishing opponents of late is truly something to behold. His knock out of legitimate UFC level fighter Matt Frevola in his debut took just seven seconds. That is not a typo. McKinney’s previous three fights leading up to that all ended as first round KO wins. Those three fights totaled one minute and forty five seconds.
McKinney will not approach this fight any differently than he has approached past fights. His fights generally end in the first round. We have to go back three years and six fights to get to the last time he saw round two. We have to go back 11 fights to find the next fight that made it out of round one.
The task for Ziam will be to survive the early onslaught from McKinney. If Ziam is able to do so, he then has to hope the pace from McKinney slows come round two and beyond. If the McKinney pace does not slow, there will be little hope for Ziam. Mainly because Ziam is not a fighter that throws in heavy volume. Quite the opposite. Essentially he will need an exhausted McKinney to take the later rounds.
What To Bet
The most likely outcome of this fight is a first round knock out for McKinney. With him set as an underdog and the ITD line offering +200, it is a screaming value. I am tempted to even take this a step further and back McKinney by first round KO at +420. These are both value laden and I have a difficult time differentiating the better bet, but a McKinney win is extremely likely to come by stoppage. I am going for the moon shot and backing McKinney by first round KO at +420.
Betting Pick: McKinney by first round KO +420
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