UFC London 2022: Aspinall vs Volkov Odds & Predictions
Updated October 26, 2026
Updated October 26, 2026
UFC London returned to the O2 Arena on March 19, 2022, with a heavyweight showdown between rising British contender Tom Aspinall and experienced Russian striker Alexander Volkov. It was the UFC's first London event in three years, and the main event offered an intriguing contrast between Aspinall's speed and versatility and Volkov's height, reach, and extensive experience.
Aspinall entered as a narrow betting favorite at -125, with Volkov priced at +105. The matchup was widely viewed as the biggest test of Aspinall's career, particularly against an opponent who had already faced some of the heavyweight division's leading contenders.
The result was decisive. Aspinall submitted Volkov with a straight armlock at 3:45 of the first round, delivering one of the most impressive performances of his early UFC career.
This retrospective examines the original betting matchup, the archived odds, the factors that favored each fighter, and how the result compared with the pre-fight expectations.
Detail | Information |
|---|---|
Event | UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs Aspinall |
Date | March 19, 2022 |
Venue | The O2 Arena |
Location | London, England |
Main event | Tom Aspinall vs Alexander Volkov |
Division | Heavyweight |
Scheduled rounds | Five |
Archived favorite | Tom Aspinall (-125) |
Archived underdog | Alexander Volkov (+105) |
Winner | Tom Aspinall |
Method | Submission (straight armlock) |
Round | 1 |
Time | 3:45 |
The event marked a significant moment for British MMA. With several domestic fighters competing on the card, the atmosphere inside the sold-out O2 Arena provided a memorable backdrop for Aspinall's first UFC main event.
For more event coverage, fighter analysis, and upcoming matchups, visit the ATS.io MMA section.
The archived UFC event page lists the following moneyline prices for the main event.
Fighter | Historical moneyline | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
Tom Aspinall | -125 | 55.6% |
Alexander Volkov | +105 | 48.8% |
Historical odds displayed in the UFC's archived event information. These are not live betting prices or necessarily the opening lines offered by every sportsbook.
Aspinall was the favorite, but the relatively small difference between the two prices reflected the uncertainty surrounding the matchup.
At -125, a $125 winning bet on Aspinall would have generated $100 in profit.
A $100 winning wager on Volkov at +105 would have produced $105 in profit.
The combined implied probabilities exceed 100% because the prices incorporate the bookmaker's margin.
Aspinall entered the fight with an unbeaten UFC record and four consecutive victories inside the Octagon.
He had finished Jake Collier, Alan Baudot, Andrei Arlovski, and Sergey Spivak, demonstrating the ability to win through both striking and submissions.
His combination of athleticism, quick hands, and effective grappling was unusual for a heavyweight.
However, Volkov represented a considerable step up in competition.
The Russian had significantly more professional experience, superior height, and a proven ability to compete over longer fights.
That experience helped keep the moneyline relatively competitive.
Aspinall arrived at UFC London with a 11-2 professional record and a 4-0 UFC record.
At 28 years old, he was considered one of the division's most promising emerging contenders.
His previous UFC performances had shown several strengths that made him difficult to prepare for.
Aspinall's hand speed was one of his biggest advantages.
Heavyweight fights frequently feature relatively measured exchanges, with fighters conserving energy and looking for individual power shots.
Aspinall could attack with faster combinations and move in and out of range without remaining directly in front of his opponent.
That ability was particularly important against Volkov, who relied on his height and long-range striking.
Aspinall was also a legitimate submission threat.
His win over Andrei Arlovski in February 2021 demonstrated his ability to transition from striking exchanges into grappling opportunities.
Against Volkov, that versatility offered a possible route to victory.
Rather than spending the entire fight at distance against a taller opponent, Aspinall could close the gap, initiate takedowns, and work from dominant positions.
The primary concern was how Aspinall would respond to a proven top-ten heavyweight.
He had yet to compete in a UFC fight lasting beyond the second round.
Volkov, by contrast, had considerable experience in extended fights and against elite opponents.
If Aspinall couldn't secure an early advantage, the later rounds could have tested his conditioning and decision-making.
Volkov entered the matchup with a 34-9 professional record.
At 6-foot-7, he was one of the tallest fighters in the heavyweight division, with a significant reach advantage over many opponents.
His career included victories over Alistair Overeem, Fabricio Werdum, and Walt Harris.
He had also shared the Octagon with leading heavyweights such as Derrick Lewis, Curtis Blaydes, and Ciryl Gane.
Volkov's strongest route to victory involved keeping Aspinall at kicking and punching range.
His jab, straight punches, and long kicks could make it difficult for a shorter opponent to establish a consistent rhythm.
If Volkov could force Aspinall into a technical striking contest, his experience and reach could become increasingly valuable.
Volkov had competed in multiple main events and was accustomed to longer fights.
That mattered against Aspinall, whose UFC victories had all come early.
A five-round contest could potentially favor Volkov if he avoided the younger fighter's early offense and forced him to work at a sustained pace.
Volkov's biggest potential vulnerability was defending takedowns and submissions against a fast, aggressive heavyweight.
Although he had developed his defensive grappling throughout his career, Aspinall possessed the athleticism to create opportunities in transitions.
The matchup therefore depended heavily on where the fight took place.
Volkov's chances improved in prolonged striking exchanges. Aspinall had a wider range of attacking options if he could establish his wrestling.
Retrospective matchup lean: Tom Aspinall to win (-125).
Because the original ATS.io article couldn't be recovered, this is a reconstructed assessment of the pre-fight matchup, not a claim about the original author's prediction.
The strongest argument for Aspinall was his ability to dictate where the fight took place.
Volkov was a dangerous striker with considerably more experience, but Aspinall's speed made it possible for him to close distance before Volkov could consistently establish his preferred range.
Aspinall also offered more than one realistic path to victory.
He could win striking exchanges with his quick combinations, initiate takedowns, or pursue submissions.
Volkov's clearest route was to maintain distance, defend takedowns, and make the fight increasingly difficult as it progressed.
At -125, Aspinall's price required him to win more than 55.6% of the time to offer positive expected value before considering the bookmaker's margin.
His speed and grappling advantage made him a reasonable favorite, although Volkov's experience justified the relatively narrow line.
Aspinall moneyline (-125): The clearest option for bettors who favored his speed and versatility without needing to predict the method of victory.
Volkov moneyline (+105): An alternative for bettors expecting Volkov to control the range and use his experience to extend the fight.
Aspinall by submission: A more specific angle built around his grappling advantage. The exact historical price for this market has not been verified.
Fight to end inside the distance: Both fighters possessed finishing ability, making this a relevant market to evaluate. No verified historical total or inside-the-distance price is available for inclusion here.
These are historical analytical angles, not active betting recommendations.
For current fight lines and available markets, see ATS.io's UFC matchup pages.
Aspinall wasted little time establishing control.
He began the fight with aggressive movement and quick striking combinations, immediately putting Volkov under pressure.
Less than a minute into the opening round, Aspinall secured his first takedown.
Once the fight reached the canvas, he attacked with ground strikes and forced Volkov to defend rather than establish offense.
Volkov eventually returned to his feet, but Aspinall continued pushing the pace.
With less than two minutes remaining in the round, Aspinall secured another takedown.
This time, he advanced into a submission opportunity and attacked Volkov's arm.
Volkov tapped at 3:45 of the first round.
The UFC officially recorded the finish as a submission by straight armlock.
Category | Result |
|---|---|
Winner | Tom Aspinall |
Loser | Alexander Volkov |
Method | Submission |
Technique | Straight armlock |
Round | First |
Time | 3:45 |
Aspinall's record afterward | 12-2 |
Volkov's record afterward | 34-10 |
The victory moved Aspinall to 5-0 in the UFC, with all five wins coming by stoppage.
It also earned him a Performance of the Night bonus.
The main-event result provides a clear answer for the moneyline market.
Historical betting selection | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|
Tom Aspinall moneyline | -125 | Won |
Alexander Volkov moneyline | +105 | Lost |
Aspinall by submission | Price unverified | Winning outcome |
Aspinall by first-round submission | Price unverified | Winning outcome |
Fight ends inside the distance | Price unverified | Winning outcome |
Fight goes the distance | Price unverified | Lost |
The archived moneyline allows a precise return calculation.
A $100 bet on Aspinall at -125 would have earned $80 in profit, returning $180 including the original stake.
A $125 wager would have earned $100 in profit.
A $100 bet on Volkov at +105 would have lost.
Method-of-victory and round-specific wagers on Aspinall could also have won, but their actual returns depended on the sportsbook and price available before the event.
The outcome strongly supported the argument that Aspinall's speed and grappling were decisive advantages.
Volkov struggled to establish his preferred striking distance.
Aspinall's ability to move from quick combinations into takedowns prevented the fight from becoming the extended technical contest that might have favored the Russian.
The submission also demonstrated that Aspinall was more than a fast heavyweight striker.
He could finish a highly experienced opponent on the ground without needing to rely exclusively on knockout power.
The March 19, 2022 event delivered several memorable finishes beyond the heavyweight main event.
Fight | Winner | Result |
|---|---|---|
Tom Aspinall vs Alexander Volkov | Tom Aspinall | Submission, Round 1, 3:45 |
Arnold Allen vs Dan Hooker | Arnold Allen | TKO, Round 1, 2:33 |
Paddy Pimblett vs Kazula Vargas | Paddy Pimblett | Submission, Round 1, 3:49 |
Gunnar Nelson vs Takashi Sato | Gunnar Nelson | Unanimous decision |
Molly McCann vs Luana Carolina | Molly McCann | KO, Round 3, 1:52 |
Ilia Topuria vs Jai Herbert | Ilia Topuria | KO, Round 2, 1:07 |
The event became particularly notable for the success of British fighters competing in front of the London crowd.
Arnold Allen faced Dan Hooker in the featherweight co-main event.
Hooker was returning to the division after competing at lightweight.
Allen attacked aggressively and repeatedly hurt Hooker with combinations.
The referee stopped the contest at 2:33 of the first round.
The victory extended Allen's winning streak and reinforced his position among the leading featherweight contenders.
Paddy Pimblett made his second UFC appearance against Kazula Vargas.
After dealing with early adversity, Pimblett recovered and secured a rear-naked choke at 3:49 of the first round.
The win strengthened his popularity among British MMA fans and added another first-round finish to the event.
Molly McCann produced one of the night's most memorable moments against Luana Carolina.
She landed a spinning back elbow in the third round, knocking Carolina out at 1:52.
The finish became a major highlight of the event and earned McCann a Performance of the Night bonus.
Ilia Topuria also delivered an impressive finish against Jai Herbert.
After surviving a difficult opening round, Topuria knocked Herbert out at 1:07 of the second.
The performance was another example of the finishing power on display throughout the card.
The preliminary fights also featured several significant performances.
Fight | Winner | Result |
|---|---|---|
Makwan Amirkhani vs Mike Grundy | Makwan Amirkhani | Submission, Round 1, 0:57 |
Sergei Pavlovich vs Shamil Abdurakhimov | Sergei Pavlovich | TKO, Round 1, 4:03 |
Paul Craig vs Nikita Krylov | Paul Craig | Submission, Round 1, 3:57 |
Jack Shore vs Timur Valiev | Jack Shore | Unanimous decision |
Elise Reed vs Cory McKenna | Elise Reed | Split decision |
Muhammad Mokaev vs Cody Durden | Muhammad Mokaev | Submission, Round 1, 0:58 |
Muhammad Mokaev made a memorable UFC debut by submitting Cody Durden in just 58 seconds.
Paul Craig also secured a first-round submission against Nikita Krylov, while Sergei Pavlovich stopped Shamil Abdurakhimov late in the opening round.
Across the full card, nine of the twelve fights ended inside the distance.
That made UFC London an especially productive event for bettors who correctly identified early finishing opportunities.
However, the large number of stoppages should not be interpreted as evidence that every pre-fight inside-the-distance price represented good value.
The Volkov victory represented a turning point in Aspinall's career.
Before the event, he was regarded as a talented heavyweight prospect with impressive early UFC results.
After defeating Volkov, he had established that his skills could translate against an experienced, highly ranked opponent.
Volkov had faced significantly stronger competition than Aspinall's previous UFC opponents.
He was ranked sixth in the division, while Aspinall entered at No. 11.
Aspinall didn't simply win a competitive decision.
He finished Volkov inside four minutes, controlling much of the action.
That performance made a compelling case for his inclusion among the heavyweight division's leading contenders.
Heavyweight fights are often decided by individual power punches.
Aspinall demonstrated a different approach.
His speed helped him initiate exchanges, his wrestling brought the fight to the canvas, and his submission ability produced the finish.
The combination made him difficult to predict and potentially dangerous against a wide range of opponents.
Aspinall's career continued to develop, although it wasn't without setbacks.
In July 2022, he suffered a serious knee injury just seconds into his main event against Curtis Blaydes in London.
He returned in 2023 and defeated Marcin Tybura before claiming the interim UFC heavyweight championship with a first-round knockout of Sergei Pavlovich at UFC 295.
He later defended that interim title against Blaydes in July 2024.
Those achievements reinforced the significance of his breakthrough against Volkov.
The 2022 victory was an early indication that Aspinall possessed the skills required to compete at the highest level of the heavyweight division.
Volkov had considerably more professional experience.
That made him a credible underdog, particularly if the fight reached the later rounds.
But Aspinall's speed and ability to change phases of the fight prevented Volkov from using that experience effectively.
A fighter's overall record matters, but the specific matchup can be more important than the number of professional bouts.
Volkov's height and reach were meaningful advantages in a prolonged stand-up contest.
Aspinall reduced their importance by taking the fight to the ground.
This illustrates why MMA betting analysis needs to consider wrestling, takedown defense, and submission threats alongside striking statistics.
Backing Aspinall to win at -125 offered exposure to every possible winning method.
A submission bet would have produced a different risk profile.
It would have won in this instance, but the bettor needed to correctly predict both the winner and the finishing method.
More specific bets typically offer longer odds because fewer outcomes can make them successful.
Aspinall won in the first round, but a pre-fight prediction of an early finish would have required stronger assumptions than a simple moneyline wager.
Even when one fighter has a clear advantage, the timing of a finish can be difficult to forecast.
The distinction between predicting a winner and predicting exactly how and when a fight ends is essential when comparing betting markets.
For current fight analysis and selections, see ATS.io's best UFC bets.
Tom Aspinall defeated Alexander Volkov by first-round submission on March 19, 2022.
Aspinall submitted Volkov with a straight armlock at 3:45 of the opening round.
The UFC's archived event page lists Aspinall at -125 and Volkov at +105. Other sportsbooks may have offered different prices.
Yes. Aspinall was a narrow moneyline favorite entering the fight.
The event took place at the O2 Arena in London, England.
Yes. The heavyweight main event was scheduled for five rounds but ended in the first.
Yes. Aspinall received a Performance of the Night bonus for his submission victory.
Arnold Allen defeated Dan Hooker by first-round TKO at 2:33.
Yes. Pimblett submitted Kazula Vargas by rear-naked choke in the first round.
Molly McCann produced one of the most memorable finishes, knocking out Luana Carolina with a spinning back elbow in the third round. Several other fighters also earned performance bonuses.
Yes. Aspinall won as the -125 favorite. A $100 winning wager at that price would have generated $80 in profit.
The original article couldn't be recovered, so its specific prediction cannot be verified. The reconstructed matchup analysis favors Aspinall, who won the fight.
UFC London on March 19, 2022, delivered a defining performance from Tom Aspinall.
Alexander Volkov entered with a substantial experience advantage and the tools to make the fight difficult at long range. But Aspinall's speed, wrestling, and submission skills proved decisive.
He secured two takedowns and finished Volkov with a straight armlock at 3:45 of the first round.
The result rewarded bettors who backed Aspinall at the archived -125 moneyline price.
→ Our Take: Aspinall was the right favorite in this matchup. His ability to combine quick striking with effective wrestling gave him more ways to win than Volkov, whose strongest opportunities depended on controlling distance and extending the fight. The first-round submission was a particularly emphatic result, but the larger lesson was the importance of evaluating how each fighter's strengths interact. Aspinall's victory was an early demonstration of the complete skill set that would eventually take him into UFC heavyweight title contention.
Updated October 26, 2026
