UFC London
UFC London is a very fun fight night card that takes place in, you guessed it, London, UK. The 13 fight card is made solidly, even if there are more higher betting lines than we generally prefer. The first fighters on the card will make the walk at 1PM EST on Saturday March 19th. UFC London streams live on ESPN+ from the O2 Arena. It is nice to see the first international card since the pandemic began. This card marks the first of consecutive Fight Night cards to take place outside of the Apex.
The fight card is really fun overall. The main event marks a big step forward for a real heavyweight prospect. Tom Aspinall has been dispatching lesser fighters with relative ease. The step up in competition is Alexander Volkov, a long time staple in the heavyweight top ten. Oddsmakers think this is a very close fight, as Aspinall is slightest of favorites. We will have a bet on this fight so more on that one later.
Co-Main Event
The co-main event showcases Dan Hooker’s move down to featherweight. After reaching a plateau at lightweight, the rangy fighter will try his hand at a lower weight class. He will be jumping in head first taking on Arnold Allen. Allen is ranked seventh in what Hooker likely views as a wide open weight class.
Hooker will be very tall and long for 145 lbs. His striking volume is strong, and he did bring ample power at lightweight. The questions with any weight class move like this are in the durability, cardio and movement departments. We will get some of those questions answered in this fight, but likely not all. Allen is certainly not a high paced fighter, so we will not see a grueling pace that could test the cardio of Hooker. The durability may be tested, as Allen is far from a high volume striker, but he is very efficient with power. We will also get a glimpse at how the speed movement of Hooker will translate to 145.
We will not have a bet on this fight, but if feeling the need for action, I lean to the Hooker side. He is not without his own power and brings so much more from a volume perspective. I also believe him to be the more likely fighter to land a takedown, so he could take a round with that approach. In totality, I lean to the Dan Hooker side but believe this is a better fight to gain knowledge from for each fighter’s future matchups.
Fight Card
The remainder of the fight card brings us some rising stars from overseas, and some fighters that should notch convincing wins over lesser competition. Paddy the baddy Pimblett will be in action in the octagon for the second time. He truly has a high ceiling in the UFC and will likely notch another win against Kazula Vargas. Gunnar Nelson and Takashi Sato will square off in the ultimate striker vs grappler matchup. There is big value to be had in the striker, Sato. Sato returns 5:1 for a KO, in a fight where he has a KO or bust outlook. Those are just a couple highlights for the fight card in totality.
With a good deal of large betting lines, we will not have an overabundance of action. Seven fights sit with the favorite costing 3:1 or better. That said, we will not have a shortage of action either. We will have four betting plays on the 13 fight card. Try as I might, I could not find an underdog to play on this card. All of our action will be coming on favorites.
Click the links below to read the betting plays and analyses.
Tom Aspinall vs Alexander Volkov
Ilia Topuria vs Jai Herbert
Cory McKenna vs Elise Reed
Nathaniel Wood vs Vince Morales
Other Fight Predictions
Dan Hooker via decision over Arnold Allen
Patty Pimblett via KO over Kazula Vargas
Gunnar Nelson via submission over Takashi Sato (the value side is Sato KO)
Molly McCann via decision over Luana Carolina
Mike Grundy via decision over Makwan Amirkhani
Serghei Pavlovich via KO over Shamil Abdurakhimov
Nikita Krylov via decision over Paul Craig
Jack Shore via decision over Timur Valiev
Muhammed Mokaev via ground and pound (Round 2) over Cody Durden