Nathaniel Wood vs Vince Morales Fight Odds
Nathaniel Wood -295 vs Vince Morales
Fight is at 135 lbs and is -105 to end inside the distance.
Nathaniel Wood looks to get back on track after a very fun fight of the night loss to Casey Kenney. Wood had won four of five fights in the UFC leading up to that loss, and gets a great spot to get back on track. Wood is a very well rounded fighter and a very high volume striker with fantastic movement and speed. He never stops throwing, and lands an extremely high 6.3 significant strikes per minute. He does well to work all levels, and he does throw leg kicks in volume. This is an extremely important part of this fight, and I will dive into why momentarily.
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Wood also mixes in takedowns and has a sneaky good grappling game. For a fighter known as a striker, two of his three UFC finish wins have come via submission. He certainly has that aspect to mix in, or to fall back on if needed.
Vince Morales has taken this fight on short notice, hoping to keep his first UFC winning streak rolling. He has won two straight after losing three of four to kick off his UFC tenure. Morales is a striker that does have quite solid pop in his hands, and he will need to land something heavy and flush early on to change the dynamic of this fight. He will have that power edge early on, but every passing minute will see Wood’s volume and diversity start running away with this fight.
Lead Leg Issues
Back to the leg kicks. Morales was actually stopped via low leg kicks in his fight with Chris Gurierrez three fights ago. Of the 60 significant strikes Gutierrez landed on Morales, 35 were to the legs. This is going to be open season for Wood, as he is going to absolutely pummel the lead leg of Morales. In Wood’s last two fights, he has landed 57 and 58 leg kicks, respectively. We truly could see Morales stopped via leg kicks once again.
In totality, I never love laying 3:1, but I do think Wood has all ases covered here. He is durable enough to withstand a big shot from Morales and will have him compromised within the first round. He is also the fighter that can fall back on wrestling and grappling if needed, and will run away with the volume. Decision win and finish win outcomes are roughly equally as likely, and I do see value in the +160 ITD line on Wood. That said, I will err to caution and lay the -295 on the flat line.
Betting Pick: Wood -295
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