We are back this week for UFC 269. The final pay per view of 2021 starts at 615PM EST and takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Every portion of this 15 fight card is jam packed with high end fights. It is headlined by two title fights, including the highly anticipated matchup between Dustin Poirier and Charles “do Bronx” Oliveira.
Quick Look Back
Before diving into this amazing card, let’s take a look back at last week. We had nine betting plays, with one of those fights being cancelled on the eve of the card. Our fighters and play went an unfortunate 3-5.
The good was Alex Morono and Cheyanne Vlismas opening the card right, nothing non competitive wins. We then had hiccups. Maki Pitolo was owning the striking portion of his fight, when in inexplicably jumped guillotine. Of course that lead to him being finished on the ground. If I’m fair, it seemed more like he quit. Then we had some more bad. Brendan Allen and Jimmy Crute did not come out with grappling heavy game plans as they should have, and were both knocked out instead of notching wins. That brings us to the unlucky fight, where Leo Santos ended up on the losing side. He hurt Clay Guida terribly and emptied the tank unloading on the compromised Guida. There is no universe where that fight should not have been stopped. Alas, Keith Peterson let the fight go, and an exhausted Santos was finished by Guida.
The card closed out with a win for Rafael Fiziev and for us, and a loss on Rob Font. Aldo went back to kicking legs and I believe that was the difference in the fight. Very impressive work from him.
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Card Overview
The UFC 269 early prelims bring us some promising fighters and well-made fights. We get to see knock out artist Randy Costa in action. Then we get to see true submission ace Andre Muniz in action. We get an awesome fight in the women’s flyweight division between ascending prospects Erin Blanchfield and Miranda Maverick. That is just the first of three segments.
The televised prelims could legitimately serve as the main card of a Fight Night. It starts with what likely brings a pair of knockouts. The first two fights see Bruno Silva take on Jordan Wright, followed by heavyweights Tai Tuivasa and Augusto Sakai slugging it out. We then get two top ten matchups in the bantamweight and featherweight divisions. Pedro Munhoz looks to get back on track against Dominick Cruz. We finally get the wildly heavy handed Josh Emmett taking on Dan Ige.
After those two portions of the card, we will be 10 fights in, and I suspect we will feel quite satisfied with what we have seen. That is when the pay per view portion begins. We get three bangers to start the pay per view card. The Sugar show comes to Las Vegas as Sean O’Malley takes on Raulian Paiva. We then see the debut of Cody Garbrandt at flyweight in a tough matchup with Kai Kara-France. The last fight before the title fights is a banger at welterweight between Geoff Neal and Santiago Ponzinibbio. Oh and then we get two title fights! This card is wild!
Title Fight Previews
UFC 269 features two title fights, starting with the women’s bantamweight division. Amanda Nunes will continue her dominance in a fully cleaned out bantamweight division. She is rightfully once again right at a four figure favorite against Julianna Pena. Finally we get the fight of the night, when Dustin Poirier and Charles Oliveira go to war for the lightweight crown. We will not have firm bets on either one of these fights.
Starting with the co-main event, Amanda Nunes is once again a massive favorite in her bantamweight title defense. Depending on the sports book, she is a -900 to a -1050 favorite. Julianna Pena, well, she is not a worthy title challenger. The grappler has lost two of her last four fights, both against fighters Nunes has beaten. What’s more, the grappler Pena was submitted in both of those losses. There is nothing in the skill set of Pena that can test Nunes and it will be a run-away win once again. The probability is that Nunes does get another finish. If needing action on this fight, the -300 ITD line on Nunes is the one to play.
Main Event
The main event is not one sided like the co-main event. In fact, it is quite the opposite. If ignoring advantages for one fighter or the other, I could make a case for either Dustin Poirier or Charles Oliveira to have all the tools to easily win this fight. Obviously that would not be rooted in reality, as there are completely identifiable paths to victory for both fighters.
Charles Oliveira has the most submissions in UFC history and has rounded his skill set to ultimately become champion. His striking has caught up, but he will still be at a striking disadvantage here. The boxing of Poirier is too precise for do Bronx. Any grappling exchange in any round will be a big plus for Oliveira. However, if he is able to drag the fight to the mat in the first round when both fighters are dry, that would be his best submission opportunity.
Poirier is a quite capable grappler and good wrestler. He will have the wrestling advantage, but has been taken down before. Keeping it upright will be paramount for Poirier. In the striking, Poirier holds the edges, but Oliveira has found a way to put sting in his punches. Poirier’s durability is legendary so a KO is unlikely. That means a stand-up oriented fight will likely go to Poirier. We are going to sit this one out on the betting side of things, but it is absolutely must watch. If action is required, the +180 ITD line on Oliveira is the best value.
On to our betting plays. We will have six betting picks in total. There is great news for those of you not planning to fork out the funds for the pay per view portion. All six bets are on the prelims portion. Let’s dive into those.
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Click the links below to read our bets and analyses.
Josh Emmett vs Dan Ige
Pedro Munhoz vs Dominick Cruz
Tai Tuivasa vs Augusto Sakai
Bruno Silva vs Jordan Wright
Miranda Maverick vs Erin Blanchfield
Randy Costa vs Tony Kelley
Other UFC 269 Predictions
Amanda Nunes via KO over Juliana Pena
Charles Oliveira via submission over Dustin Poirier
Cody Garbrandt via KO over Kai Kara-France
Geoff Neal via KO over Santiago Ponzinibbio
Sean O’Malley via KO over Raulian Paiva
Andre Muniz via submission over Eryk Anders
Alex Perez via KO over Matt Schnell
Ryan Hall via submission over Darrick Minner
Gillian Robertson via submission over Priscilla Cachoeira
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