Fight Odds
Randy Costa -185 vs Tony Kelley
Fight is at 135 lbs and is -250 to end inside the distance.
Randy Costa is an extremely fun striker that brings ability and a very fast start to every single fight. He comes out hard and fast, throwing heavy and often, looking to notch first round knock outs. That has worked twice for him and failed twice for him so far in the UFC. The losses came in his debut against Brandon Davis where he was submitted in the second round and in his most recent fight against Adrian Yanez. Yanez is a true blue chip prospect and high end boxer. There is no shame in the second round KO loss there. In fact it should be viewed as a positive. Costa came out and put it on Yanez in Round 1, won the round, but could not quite get the finish.
His other two fights against Journey Newsome and Boston Salmon were first round Kos for Costa. Those fights combined had less than three minutes of fight time. Like always, it will be early KO or bust for Costa.
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
Tony Kelley is more of a steady fighter that likes to pressure. That will not work to his advantage in the first round and perhaps the second round should the fight make it that far. He is going to have to eat a lot of heavy power shots. His ability to survive that early beating will be the determining factor in this fight. If he is able to power through, he will be able to tee off on a completely drained fighter and secure a finish for himself later in the fight. It is all about the will to survive and ability to take a beating for Kelley.
What To Bet
Kelley is a tough enough fighter, but I strongly suspect he will not be able to hold up under the early pace, pressure and power from Costa. The -110 ITD line for Costa is not a value, but it is the best bet on the fight and will be our avenue of attack. If willing to lay a little more juice, you could also hedge with the fight ending inside the distance which sits in the neighborhood of -250.
Pick: Costa ITD -110
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
Randy Costa vs Tony Kelley Prediction.