Betting percentages can be really eye-opening statistics. Take UFC 257 for example. Bettors are wagering on Conor McGregor as if it’s free money to line up on the -300 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook.
In data released by DraftKings on Friday, 92% of the money and 89% of the bets were on the big favorite in the main event of UFC 257. McGregor’s highly anticipated return to the Octagon comes against Dustin Poirier, a fighter with a lot more recent data points and a pretty impressive list of credentials.
Yet DraftKings can’t seem to buy a bet on the underdog.
You’ll often hear “paths to victory” described as justification for making a certain UFC wager. Some fighters are skilled and versatile enough to win by knockout, win by submission, or simply outlast their opponent for either 15 minutes or 25 minutes to take down a decision triumph.
One of the reasons why UFC betting is the best at DraftKings is that you can bet on a variety of different props and outcomes wagers. For example, you can bet on the Winning Method at DK. That means being able to pick your fighter and also pick the manner in which they win the match.
As of Friday evening, 57% of the money and 41% of the bets were on McGregor by KO/TKO/DQ. Only 8% of bettors were willing to take Poirier by KO/TKO/DQ, even though the odds at the time were +650. Only 20% of the Winning Method bets were on Poirier to win the fight in some fashion. Maybe more telling, only 15% of the handle was on Poirier to win the fight in some way.
With these splits, and also promotions like Double Your Money on a McGregor win or the new user offer to Bet $1, Win $257 on a first-round McGregor KO/TKO, it sure looks like DraftKings will be rooting very heavily for Poirier to find a way to win. It would also bust up the money line parlays that are very popular in UFC betting.
The McGregor vs. Poirier match isn’t the only fight on the card. Dan Hooker and Michael Chandler are in the final match leading up to the main event. Betting action is spread out a lot more for that one.
Hooker, who has been a UFC fixture, had taken 56% of the bets and 61% of the money as of Friday evening. Chandler, who has made his hay in Bellator, remains a slight plus-money underdog in his UFC debut.
While Hooker has taken a lot of the bets in the straight wagering market, the Winning Method market shows that bettors are willing to gamble a little bit more with better prices on Chandler. Chandler by decision had taken 23% of the wagers and Chandler by submission had taken 18% of the bets. Hooker was still the preferred choice, with 21% of the bets on a decision win and 28% of the bets on a KO/TKO/DQ victory, but this looks to be a much better spot for DraftKings with balanced action.
Favorite money is all over the card, as those money line parlays are lined up on fighters like Movsar Evloev, Amanda Ribas, and Khalil Rountree. The one underdog that has gotten a significant percentage of the bets and the money is Antonio Carlos Junior for his match against Brad Tavares.
Slight underdog Jessica Eye has taken more of the money, but fewer bets than Joanne Calderwood in the women’s fight on the main card. As of Friday, Eye had taken 58% of the money, but just 45% of the bets. When you have a split with a higher percentage of money and a lower percentage of the bets, that typically means that the sharp money is on that side. We’ll see if Eye perhaps becomes the favorite by the time the match starts.
These numbers are really interesting to look at and it is awesome that DraftKings released this to their media list members to showcase what is happening behind the scenes.
Good luck and enjoy the fights!