UFC 266 Fight Odds:
Curtis Blaydes -310 vs Jair Rozenstruick
Fight is at heavyweight and is -200 to end inside the distance.
Jair Rozenstruick got himself back on track in his last fight, with a KO win over Augusto Sakai. That win was not without discussion, if not controversy, as the fight was stopped just before the horn ending the first round. A win is a win in any event, and got him back in the win column after losing two of three in ugly fashion. Rozenstruick’s skill set and fighting style is not going to change much at this juncture, and we know what he is. He is a striker that possesses real power, but lacks volume. He tends to sit around and wait for the perfect KO shot. He waited so much against Ciryl Gane that it became an embarrassment. What he is not is a grappler, and will have unspeakable problems with a high end wrestler. Enter Curtis Blaydes.
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More than any fighter we have seen in the heavyweight division, Blaydes knows what his wrestling chops are, and he comes in to use them. The wrestling will serve him well in this fight, and it will not be a typical Blaydes wrestling fight. That is to say we are not going to see the double digit completed takedowns that we would see in a Blaydes decision win. There will be fewer takedowns, but that is not a knock on him by any means. The reason there will be fewer takedowns is Rozenstruick will be much more easily controlled on the mat than previous opponents. One takedown likely means the round will end on the floor, and Blaydes will have plenty of time to work towards a submission while dropping heavy ground and pound. I truly have difficulty seeing how Rozenstruick survives a single round of that, let alone three of them.
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We know the key to beating Blaydes is to get the KO shot in before he can get his wrestling game going and wear an opponent down to dust. While Rozenstruick has the ability to do that, I don’t believe he has the willingness to even put himself in a position to get it done. He simply takes too long to get his reads in and in turn let his hands go. Knowing his fighting style, by the time he would be comfortable throwing hard, he will already be taken down and moving in on getting finished. There is simply not enough grappling prowess on the Rozenstruick side, and we will see a finish on the floor from Blaydes. That outcome actually brings us a plus figure at +105, and it will be our play.