Jessica Andrade -270 vs Cynthia Calvillo
Fight is at 125 lbs and is -110 to end inside the distance.
Jessica Andrade will look to get back on track after a one sided loss in her title fight against Valentina Shevchenko. This will be her third fight since her move to flyweight, with the other being a dominant KO win over Katlyn Chookagian. Her two fights previous to that were losses to strawweight killers Zhang Weili and Rose Namajunas, so it is fair to say she is taking a large step down in competition. What’s more, Andrade could not have hoped for a better stylistic matchup. Cynthia Calvillo has also recently made the move to flyweight, and she is not a larger stronger human like Shevchenko was against Andrade. Andrade will have a massive edge in the striking of this fight. She is the higher volume striker, but the real edge is in the power. She still hits like a truck, working all levels of an opponent. Her striking is the largest advantage of any aspect of this fight.
Cynthia Calvillo is coming off a loss in which she was completely neutralized by Katlyn Chookagian. Yes this a common recent opponent and one Andrade finished with a body shot. It is puzzling why Calvillo, coming off a loss, draws the most difficult opponent of her career. Calvillo will be out of her depth with the striking disadvantage in this fight, but does have a path, however unlikely, of effectiveness. She is a great top side grappler and Andrade is questionable off of her back. If Calvillo can find herself into top position, that will likely be a good round for her. The issue with that is she has issues securing takedowns, and Andrade is a superior wrestler. If there is a fighter that looks to take the fight down and succeeds, it is likely to be Andrade. Calvillo’s paths to victory look scarce outside of perhaps winning a scramble or finding a trip takedown and landing in top position.
Without mincing words, Andrade is going to put it on Calvillo in the standup. Calvillo does not have the power coming back to earn respect or to slow Andrade’s combos from coming in. Calvillo will be left grasping at straws when she is unable to successfully get the fight down, and will have no choice but to go down and eventually out. Andrade brings real value on the +130 ITD line and we will be looking at a KO.