We’ve seen a line move in this game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Colorado Rockies on Sunday afternoon in Denver. It will be Carlos Martinez for the Redbirds and German Marquez for the team clad in purple that will host the All-Star Game festivities in about two weeks time.
The line has jumped 20+ cents in the marketplace with Marquez and the Rockies taking the money in this matchup. It would be really hard to argue against that line move. Really hard.
As you’ve read lately or heard about at ATS.io on The Bettor’s Box, my MLB betting podcast, there is something going on in Denver where the Rockies have figured out how to pitch at home. They rank dead last in ERA on the road by a large margin, and also only have six road wins on the season, but they have been surprisingly good at home on the pitching side.
The offense is always there for the Rockies, at least at home, but now the pitching has taken a huge step forward. The Rockies rank 19th in home ERA at 4.15. They were 30th last year at 6.52 and Austin Gomber is really the only new pitcher in the starting rotation. They were 30th in 2019, too. This is the first time that the Rockies have been in the top 25 in home ERA since 2010, so this is a major accomplishment. They’ve been 30th most of those seasons in between.
So, I’m not quite sure how or why, but the improved numbers really speak for themselves.
Marquez is having an outstanding season with a 3.62 ERA and a 3.45 FIP. He has exhibited some of the best command of his career with a Hard Hit% under 35% and a Barrel% under 4%. This has been one of his best overall seasons, but especially in those two areas. Limited hard contact would be the most important skill in Denver and that’s what he’s been able to do.
The Rockies offense is also night and day at home versus on the road. That is to be expected, as the Coors Field Effect very much extends to playing outside of the elevation and the thin air. Overall, Colorado ranks 16th in wOBA for the season, but third in wOBA at home. Between the offense and the pitching, that is how the Rockies are 30-17 at home this season.
The offense should be able to have another nice day with Carlos Martinez on the hill. Martinez is not having a good season at all whatsoever, He has a 6.38 ERA with a 4.62 FIP. He did pitch well against Arizona last time out,but had allowed 30 runs over his previous five starts and those starts included opponents like the Indians and Pirates, so he wasn’t just facing elite units.
Colorado is an elite unit at home. The park factor adjustments certainly water down the offensive profile to a degree, but in terms of actual run production, Colorado generates a ton of offense at home. The Cardinals offense has been one of the worst in baseball over the last two months. Their offensive profile is extremely limited. Add in a pitcher like C-Mart who has given up a ton of runs and you seem to have a recipe for disaster.
As such, the betting market has bumped this number up a bit, but I still think the price is cheap on Colorado. The run line is an option for those that don’t want to lay the chalky line, but a lot of quirky, crazy things can happen in Coors.
I’ll just keep it simple and lay the Rockies home price here.
Pick: Colorado Rockies
Other game: San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks