We’ve seen a noteworthy line move come in hot and heavy on the San Francisco Giants for the series finale against the Arizona Diamondbacks. This is such a weird and unique spot because it is a late Sunday night game that actually starts after Sunday Night Baseball. We don’t often see this and I didn’t even know it was allowed with the huge TV deals and the agreement with ESPN and all of that, but here we are.
Anthony DeSclafani and Caleb Smith are the listed starters for this one. The late game angle is an interesting one here because the Snakes have an off day on Monday and the Giants will be heading home to take on the Cardinals. It makes me sort of wonder if the Giants are fully invested in this game.
This finishes up a little six-game trip for the Giants, who have gone through the motions a little bit in this series. That happens. You can’t always be at your best and it does feel like losing consecutive games to the Dodgers earlier this week kind of took the Giants out of rhythm.
Caleb Smith is the kind of guy that can take you out of rhythm. He’s a solid pitcher and an oasis in the proverbial desert for the Diamondbacks, who have very little to be excited about this season. He has a 3.08 ERA with a 4.06 FIP on the season across seven starts and 25 total appearances. A high walk rate is the primary reason why Smith has a FIP north of 4. He hasn’t given up a lot of home runs or anything like that. He’s just walked a few too many guys.
Smith has washed out those walks with a high K% at 26.9%. He has held the opposition to a .307 wOBA as a starter this year compared to a .285 as a reliever, so he has been effective in both capacities this season.
Anthony DeSclafani has been very effective as well. First and foremost, the right-hander has stayed healthy, so that is a good sign for him and the Giants. Second, he has a 2.91 ERA with a 3.68 FIP in his 92.2 innings with solid K and BB rates. He has allowed a little more hard contact than you’d like to see, especially with a .237 BABIP against, but the Giants are a stout and solid defensive unit.
These are always complex and challenging handicaps for me because I’m looking for a low-scoring game here. The question is whether or not I take the 1st 5 under or the full game under. These two bullpens do not have impressive stats for the season, so that is my first consideration. The second is that we usually see a 1st 5 total line that looks more like 5 for a total of 9. Well, with two good starters and two iffy bullpens, we see the 1st 5 total at 4.5, so we’re giving up a little bit of line equity here.
My next step in that scenario is to look at bullpen usage. I want to know who is fresh and who is available. Well, for the Giants, five relievers worked yesterday and two would be working a third straight day. Two others would be working three games in four days, which is pretty standard for relievers nowadays, but I still want to hope that guys are at their best.
The Arizona bullpen, which is not very good, has very few fresh arms.
As a result, even though we’re losing a little bit of line equity here getting 4.5 instead of a traditional 5 with a full-game total of 9, I’ll stick with the 1st 5 under in this one and hope to get in and get out and then whatever happens happens. We had the full game under in this series on Thursday and managed to get lucky with a bunch of scoreless frames from the pen. Maybe it happens again, but I’d rather err on the side of caution.
Pick: 1st 5 Under 4.5
Other game: St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies