This is a game that probably won’t be on most radars today, but it is on mine. It will be the Mariners at Sahlen Field to take on the Buffalo Blue Jays. Seattle is playing on the road, which at least gives the offense some kind of hope. They did score all of three runs in Tuesday’s blowout loss at the hands of the Jays.
This game features Justus Sheffield for the Mariners, Steven Matz for the Blue Jays, and a big line move on the Toronto side. We’ve seen this line jump up 40-50 cents in the betting market, which is interesting because Matz is going to be on a pitch count after not working for the last 17 days. He was on the COVID-19 IL, so he’s working his way back from that and threw 60 pitches in his last bullpen session.
A bullpen session and an actual start are two different things, so I do wonder how sharp Matz will be, particularly as he makes just his second start in Buffalo. The Mariners do not rank all that well against lefties, though their numbers are really bastardized by playing so many home games in an awful hitting environment.
The reality for Seattle is that they are 14th in wOBA on the road and 12th in SLG. It’s just that they rank last or close to it in so many offensive categories at T-Mobile Park that it hurts all of their overall numbers.
In other words, I think they have a chance at scoring tonight on a warm day in Western New York.
We know that the Blue Jays have a chance at scoring every day, but I do think that their chances are enhanced by Wednesday’s starting pitcher. Justus Sheffield has some very noticeable home/road splits to his career numbers. For starters, Sheffield has been bad most places this season for a 5.69 ERA and a 5.50 FIP. He’s simply had no command to speak of whether at home or on the road.
In 31 road innings this season, Sheffield has an ERA of 6.39 with a .397 wOBA against. For his career, Sheffield now has a 5.72 ERA away from the safety net of home with a .358 wOBA against. Sheffield is not a strikeout pitcher, so he doesn’t even have that to fall back on in hopes of having one of those days where the pitches are working and the K’s are coming.
This is a big total of 10.5, but I really do expect a lot of runs to come from this game. Sheffield has shown no signs of shutting anybody down this season and especially not on the road. He has allowed 13 home runs and a Hard Hit% of 42.7%. He’s actually at 43.4% for his career. Add that to a Toronto lineup that has led the league or been close to it in Hard Hit% all season long and you’ve got a really healthy opportunity for the Jays.
The Mariners have been so much better on the road than at home that I have hope for them here in this game. Matz will be on a pitch count and that will force the Jays to go to some lesser relievers early on. I’d also be surprised if Matz, who has a 4.26 ERA and has been very Jekyll and Hyde this season, looks sharp in this start.
All in all, give me some offense tonight in Buffalo and I’ll be a happy guy.
Pick: Over 10.5
Other game: Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies