The series finale at Busch Stadium will put Johnny Cueto up against Wade LeBlanc as the road favorite Giants look to bounce back from yesterday’s setback. The Cardinals won 3-1 and we cashed the 1st 5 under with ease in that one, as the Giants mustered very little offense against Kwang Hyun Kim and the Cardinals bullpen.
San Francisco put a ton of balls in play yesterday. Kim recorded 18 outs, but only one came via the strikeout. The Giants made very little hard contact against Kim, so it was a deserved outcome with the 3-1 loss.
The Giants will hope for better fortunes today against veteran southpaw Wade LeBlanc. The pitching-starved Cardinals are missing Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas from their rotation, not to mention the injuries to Carlos Martinez, Daniel Ponce De Leon, and Dakota Hudson. Enter LeBlanc, who just seems to hang around until a team wants him.
LeBlanc made his Cardinals debut on June 17 in relief. He’ll make his fourth start here with four runs allowed on 12 hits in 13 innings over his previous three starts. One was at Wrigley Field against the Cubs, another was in Colorado against the Rockies, and his first one was against the Diamondbacks at home. He’s pitched well, but he also has seven walks against just six strikeouts.
The Giants are going to put a ton of balls in play here, much like they did yesterday. LeBlanc has allowed a 40.3% Hard Hit% in 67 batted ball events with the Cardinals and allowed a 48% mark in 25 BBE with the Orioles. Kim has much better command and is better-equipped to deal with the pitch-to-contact philosophy.
San Francisco ranks seventh in wOBA on the road and 11th in wOBA against lefties, so this is a decent matchup for them, even when you factor Busch Stadium into the equation. The Giants have an 11.1% BB% against lefties, so they’ve been able to set up a lot of innings, but maybe haven’t capitalized to the degree that they should. LeBlanc is a guy that tries to nibble at the edges, so with the chance for some free passes and a lot of balls in play, I like the offensive projection for San Francisco today.
Johnny Cueto certainly isn’t pitching very well of late. He’s allowed 21 runs on 42 hits in his last 33.2 innings of work. Maybe the All-Star Break will be a positive for him, as a little bit of extra rest can’t hurt, but Cueto has allowed nine home runs in his last six starts. Like most guys, we’ve seen spin rate decreases for him since the foreign substance crackdown.
In that span, Cueto’s Hard Hit% is up to 39.3% with 10 barrels allowed. I’m certainly not keen on the Cardinals offense, but Cueto is a guy that has a really thin margin for error at this stage of his career. The body is just failing him and he’s just trying to hold on.
I think both offenses have some upside today. If nothing else, we’re going to get tons of balls in play, as Cueto’s K% is down under 20%. Totals of 8.5 at Busch Stadium aren’t typically things I’d like to get involved with, but it will be a nice, warm afternoon in St. Louis and all those balls in play will give us chances at runs and run-scoring opportunities.
Pick: Over 8.5
Other games: Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks; Cleveland Indians at Oakland Athletics