The Giants continue to get disrespected in the betting markets and I can’t figure out why. There is nothing fluky about what they are doing. San Francisco boasts a top-five offense and quite possibly the best starting rotation in baseball. The Giants rotation ranks fifth in fWAR on the season and third in FIP. They’ve been thoroughly impressive and also one of the best 1st 5 bets in baseball.
I am fully aware that the Giants may lose today. I get it. But I can go ahead and put the cart in front of the horse and say that I’ll be on the Giants today at the big underdog price. The reality here is that the Giants are and have been the better team for most of the season. And I get that Trevor Bauer won the Cy Young Award last season and Anthony DeSclafani is en route to a career year for the Giants. Maybe bettors don’t expect it to continue.
I’ll be the first to admit that there are some red flags in the profile for Disco. I don’t think his 43.2% Hard Hit% can keep sustaining a .238 BABIP and a .198 batting average against. I don’t see that happening. I don’t know if his 78.1% LOB% can continue with a 23.1% K%. I do think that there are some areas in which his 2.77 ERA points northward.
However, DeSclafani has a 9.2% HR/FB%. For all the hard contact he has allowed, he’s gone back to inducing ground balls at a career-best rate. He cut his BB% back down towards his career average. Those are two really important developments for pitchers because balls in play simply don’t go for hits the way that they used to. Defensive shifting and improved scouting reports have gone a long way in terms of cutting down on base hits.
It’s all about forcing guys to put balls in play and avoiding the guaranteed runs that come with the long ball. DeSclafani has done that well this season. And he has enough strikeouts to get by. He has thrown a first-pitch strike over 67% of the time, which is also a career-high, so he’s been able to work from ahead and make guys hit his pitch.
The Dodgers lineup rates very highly in a lot of ways, but the Dodgers don’t hit for the same level of power you would expect relative to the players on the roster. Their high walk rate has carried them in a lot of ways. They generate a lot of chances with RISP as a result, so it comes down to whether or not they cash them in, but DeSclafani has not allowed a lot of baserunners this season.
Therefore, this isn’t really an optimal matchup for the Dodgers lineup.
On the flip side, the Giants, yes, the San Francisco Giants, are tied for the league lead in home runs. There ain’t nothing fluky about that. They play at Oracle Park. They play in a lot of below average hitter’s parks. They’re tied for the league lead in home runs with a Toronto Blue Jays offense that got to enjoy the fruits of Dunedin Park for two months and also plays in the AL East with a bunch of good hitter’s parks.
The Giants are for real and I don’t think they are priced like they are and certainly not when they face the Dodgers or Padres.
I guess I saved the best for last maybe. Trevor Bauer. All eyes are on Bauer and the decreased spin rates. He’s pitched fairly well since the crackdown. He certainly hasn’t gone all Gerrit Cole on us. But, Bauer is still working through some things and the frustration is setting in.
Over his last four starts, Bauer has walked 13 batters. He’s given up four home runs and he’s actually allowed nine homers in his last six starts. He’s pitching to lots of aerial contact and then wondering why he’s allowing so many home runs. He’s given up 12 runs over his last four starts and 16 over his last five. The 2.57 ERA that you see is probably not indicative of the Bauer that we will get the rest of the way. His 3.93 FIP is probably a better idea.
The Giants offense really is for real and I think this is a spot where they are very much a live dog. The Dodgers may have gotten back on track against the Cubs over the weekend, but the Cubs are a team that ranks 29th in wOBA over the last 30 days, as mentioned in one of my other previews and picks for the day.
Something that all bettors need to realize about betting underdogs is that it is still a bet designed to lose more often than it wins. Based on the DraftKings line posted right now, the Giants are +160. That implies a 38.46% win probability. If you don’t make your own lines, you don’t know how often you expect the Giants to win this game, but if you think it’s more often than that number, then it’s a bet that you can make. Would I think that this game is more like 60/40 at least? Absolutely. I have no reason not to believe that the Giants could win four of 10 in this matchup at a minimum.
So, you do have to keep in mind that even if you have some wild overlay like a 45% probability for the Giants to win (+122), they’re still more likely to lose than win. Mentally, betting underdogs can be a challenge, but if you feel like the value is there, then you can take your chances.
To me, I think this one is a chance worth taking.
Pick: San Francisco Giants
Other picks/previews for today: Cubs at Brewers & Angels at Yankees